KEY ASSUMPTIONS --Fitch assumes slightly flat to modestly positive comps over the next 13 months, based on flattish domestic comps and modestly positive international comps.
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SARA EISEN: So are the higher comps, higher-than-industry comps, sustainable, repeatable?
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And if you look at those comps, those comps have not done badly.
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Startup valuations are impacted by a host of factors, one of which is the value of their public comparables (comps); if public comps lose value, private startup comps tend to earn lower valuations.
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KEY RATING DRIVERS Comps Slow Slightly But Continue to Lead Industry Starbucks' consolidated comps rose 3% during the quarter ended Jan.
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The company's fiscal second-quarter same-store sales or comps reported Wednesday marked the seventh consecutive quarter of negative comps for the company.
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"Good comps, bad comps, any comp; just give somebody a song," Bell said in Eric Grubbs' book Post, which focused a chapter on Braid.
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KEY RATING DRIVERS Weak Sales Continue Gap's comparable store sales (comps) continue to be weak, with -212015% comps in first quarter 211004294 (10042941Q16) following -7% comps in 4Q15, despite significantly easier comparisons and an assumed benefit from sourcing and merchandising changes made in 2015.
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Nordstrom's comparable store sales (comps) declined 0.4% in 2123 compared to 2.7% in 2015, with comps declining to the negative low single-digit range in 1H33711.
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Solid Track Record Home Depot has grown comps and EBITDA margin every year since 2010, with 5% average annual comps and EBITDA improvement of over 600bps from 2009 to 16.6% in 2016.
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Solid Track Record Home Depot has grown comps and EBITDA margin every year since 2010, with 5% average annual comps and EBITDA improvement of over 500bps from 9083 to 15.8% in 2015.
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EBITDA COULD DECLINE TO $212001 BILLION BY 2018 Kohl's comparable store sales (comps) have essentially been flat between 2011-2015, with online growth estimated to contribute an average of 2% to comps annually.
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"How much longer can we blame weather and tough comps?"
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EISEN: BECAUSE PEOPLE LOOK AT THOSEE 12% COMPS AT DOMINOS.
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Heathrow airport offers one of the best comps in sterling.
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To be honest with you I really like the comps.
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AND AS WE REMODEL, THOSE STORES ARE SHOWING POSITIVE COMPS.
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Comps were up 4 percent, versus the 1.8 percent expected.
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We'll deliver, you know, low single digit comps in 22019.
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"I don't get no damn comps," he said in the clip.
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I think you'll see comps remain strong in the near term.
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Whole Foods hasn't produced positive quarterly comps in over a year.
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Previously, Penney's had forecast comps climbing as much as 1 percent.
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The more that players play, the more they earn in comps.
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Operating margins better than expected, comps — crazy — up 17% last quarter.
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In the second quarter of 2016, Macy's comps fell 2 percent.
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Comps Slow But Lead Industry: Costco's comps, excluding the impact of fuel and currency, have slowed from 6% to 7% during fiscal 2011 to fiscal 13 to 4% in 2016, 3% in the quarter ended Feb.
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Comps Slow But Lead Industry: Costco's comps, excluding the impact of fuel and currency, have slowed from 21000% to 211% during fiscal 21500 to fiscal 21000, to 212000% in 4807123, 212001% in the quarter ended Feb.
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Positive U.S. Comps, Mixed Global Trends: Walmart U.S., which represented 62% of revenue and 73% of operating profit in 2015, has reported eight consecutive quarters of positive comps, driven by seven straight quarters of traffic growth.
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Global comps increased 6.5 percent at Home Depot in the first quarter.
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That is same store sales and comps, are what we call them.
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In the last quarter we had over 7 percent comps at Saks.
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Who else is posting these types of comps in this environment globally?
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With these comps, TLJ would be lucky to beat Phantom Menace's score.
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As for whether Diddy comps their tickets -- the phone's not ringing. Yet.
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That way you start getting the comps—the free rooms or whatever.
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This was the first quarter upside on strongest comps since June of 2017.
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"We're going to see 10 percent plus comps later this year," Lee added.
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Global same-store sales rose 6.5 percent, while U.S. comps increased 7.4 percent.
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Corporate-owned comps have stayed higher for 2 Qs; we take our est.
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KEY ASSUMPTIONS --Fitch expects flattish domestic comps over the next 0003 to36 months.
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The Times' strict no-comps policy will apply to this job, says Drake.
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Those are the comps they want to be believed they are comparable to.
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Even worse, small-cap lower growth public SaaS comps trade at just 2x.
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The company Wednesday reported a blockbuster quarter beating on earnings, revenue and comps.
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If that happens, it would be the seventh consecutive quarter of negative comps.
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CARL QUINTANILLA: KEVIN, YOU MENTIONED NO IMPACT ON NATIONAL COMPS BECAUSE OF PHILADELPHIA.
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The gain in comps were led by improvement at the company's KFC restaurants.
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The industry is doing over 4% comps right now so very strong results.
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"There aren't great comps for properties like [Epstein's mansion]," Egan told Business Insider.
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It's just difficult comps versus 2018," Hogan said Wednesday on CNBC's "Trading Nation.
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Fogelson looks at comps, too, but then he applies a three-part test.
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I look at comps and decide to lower the nightly rate a little bit.
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Looking at enterprise-aligned startups, M&A activity and public comps provide additional evidence.
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This marks Kohl's first increase in the closely watched sales comps in seven quarters.
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"We had a really great year last year, which creates tough comps," he admitted.
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TJX also saw higher comps of 4 percent in the second quarter of 2016.
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Store-level comps dipped just 230% -- but that's a metric worth digging into deeper.
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It sees another period of flat comps with international sales dragging down overall performance.
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Comps (Part I): Hortonworks (Nasdaq: HDP) is smaller than Cloudera ($184m in 2016 revs vs.
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Also, there are some obvious comps out there, but this movie is just so unique.
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Mgmt also highlighted tougher 2H revenue comps, though we believe our forecasts account for this.
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Negative comps and fixed cost deleveraging lead to negative cash flow and unsustainable capital structures.
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Why were things so good, and how can you do well against those ridiculous comps?
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Morningstar's Hottovy said Dunkin' had 3 percent to 4 percent comps prior to the slowdown.
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Walmart today though, in the U.S., put up its best comps in about a decade.
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Mexico is the segment's best-performing market, as comps rose 7.3% in the latest quarter.
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"No one was using the Dominican Republic and El Salvador as comps," said the investor.
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JPM points to easier comps and a reduction in top-line headwinds, among other factors.
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"We remain focused on improving international comps," Chief Executive Officer Ritch Allison said in a statement.
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Their leading market comps are no longer the kick bags of the internet and financial realms.
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"We'll get some relief in the back half of the year when the comps get easier."
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Goldman expects Whole Foods will see lower comps through fiscal 2018, albeit at a moderating clip.
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Our waitress forgets to refill our coffee pot throughout breakfast — and she comps it all together.
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So what we can learn about the value of Robinhood comps should prove illustrative and important.
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"The company is new to the loan market and there are no comps," an investor said.
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International comps meanwhile increased 4.7 percent, fueled by growth in Canada and Mexico, Best Buy said.
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In gaming, we see easy 1H comps and 2H demand from likely launch of 7nm GPU.
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Correction: This story has been updated to reflect that Bath & Body Works comps were up 3 percent.
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It strangely reminded Cramer of Starbucks, which delivered U.S. comps below 5 percent in the third quarter.
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Comps are getting tougher, rev shares with partners are rising, and margins will decline from current levels.
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"Those comps are much better than expected ... Tiffany is getting new merchandise in their stores," Telsey added.
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What happens on public markets impacts the private markets, helping set valuations through comps and molding sentiment.
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Nvidia is also facing easy comps this year in its graphics and data center segments, Needham added.
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This comes in 1 percentage point less than Kroger's comps during the same time a year earlier.
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"Against admittedly easy compares and aided by favorable weather/calendar, amusement comps return to mid-single-digit growth for the first time in six quarters and food/beverage comps surprisingly turned positive for the first time in two years," BMO Capital Markets analyst Andrew Strelzik wrote in a note.
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We went up against hugely impossible comps ... and that was very negative for iPhone shipments in fiscal 2016.
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Fitch expects WBA's front-end comparable store sales (comps) to be slightly positive over the next three years.
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" UBS sees "difficult comps ahead' for Verizon, but does say stock is well-positioned as a defensive investment.
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For the full quarter, global same-store sales rose 6.5 percent, while U.S. comps increased up 7.4 percent.
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Sales comps grew 4 percent in the second quarter, compared to 15 percent in the previous four quarters.
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Costco (COST) reported flat global comparable store sales for August, and flat comps in the U.S. as well.
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I think the best numbers that we can use for comps for Twitter and video are the NFL.
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Fitch anticipates that each of these chains can grow global comps in the 2%-0003% range over time.
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"Why would you want to roll out a business now, with comps trading near a 52-week low?"
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My coworker graciously comps our drinks so we only have to pay for the little food we ordered.
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Conversely, the UK is the worst-performing, as comps declined 7.5% in the latest quarter, despite price investments.
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Revenue beat estimates, however, as global comparable-store sales rose six percent, while U.S. comps rose 4.1 percent.
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Fitch believes transaction trends and comps can improve as the company more effectively staffs around peak transaction times.
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But for Benoit, who produces advertising comps one day a week, it's the main source of his income.
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That works out to 230,22017 possible six-hero "comps" (gamer lingo, born when the gaming community took the phrase "team composition" and nouned it), and to be good at Overwatch you have to recognize each of these comps, understand what effect they'll have on your own team's comp, and react accordingly.
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Atlantic also notes that both companies will see relatively easy comps given overall market difficulties in 2017 and 2018.
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Following their extended swoon, public high-growth SaaS comps trade at just 5x revenues today – on a good day.
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There is not a lot of comps for investors to say 'It's just like this, it's just like that.
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"All I ask is that when Cardi sees me at Chipotle, she comps me the guac," one user tweeted.
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Walmart has its best U.S. comps in a decade but December retail sales were the worst in nine years.
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Right now, the Flight Club stores have some of the highest sales per square foot comps in the country.
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Sethi recommends taking time to pull the current rental data for your local neighborhood so you can get comps.
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Fitch now believes comps could improve to the negative 1% - 2% range by 4Q16 and remain modestly negative thereafter.
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He said the increase was primarily driven by comps associated with the Woods Cross outage that started in March.
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TAPESTRY INC CEO ON KATE SPADE- NOT PREPARED, AT THIS MOMENT, TO CALL WHEN COMPS OR MARGINS TURN POSITIVE
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However, e-commerce, for which Walmart increased investments, had only a modest impact on comps of 08403% to 0.3%.
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"This could create some volatility in the shares, but strong traffic and comps should provide downside protection," Binder added.
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Comping at those kinds of levels on top of really good comps in the prior year is very impressive.
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Prove it with paperwork and before-and-after photos that you put in a single folder with your comps.
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The parent company of Pottery Barn and West Elm also raised its forecast for full-year revenues and comps.
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Nordstrom still expects comps to be flat, but it has increased the low end of its range for profit.
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The company's CEO cited foreign exchange headwinds and "dramatically lower worldwide spending attributed to foreign tourists" for the disappointing comps.
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It is important to understand the value of your experience, the industry and the salary comps for your geographical location.
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We believe that such issues have not been sufficiently addressed and as comps begin to toughen, sentiment may likely shift.
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Costco — The discount retailer reported flat global comparable-store sales for August, and flat comps in the U.S., as well.
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None of the human occupants' comps were connected to the system as far as Adda could tell through her intermediary.
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Penney has gained 40 percent this year while comps like Macy's and Kohl's are down 4 and 21 percent, respectively.
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"I'm meant to be doing five comps, but I will now not be able to do all five," he added.
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KEY RATING DRIVERS Broad-based Comp Improvement: McDonald's global comps are up 23125% for the nine-month period ended Sept.
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Comps at domestic franchise restaurants likewise beat at up 3.8 percent, while analysts expected 1.9 percent, according to Thomson Reuters.
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The more comps they sold, the more their mail-order increased, driving sales of their bands' LPs and T-shirts.
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TAPESTRY INC EXEC - AT KATE SPADE, WE EXPECT Q2 COMPS TO DECLINE AT A HIGH SINGLE-DIGIT RATE - CONF CALL
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Hand over a brief document explaining idiosyncrasies that affect valuations, and make copies of comps that the appraiser may miss.
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"Given recent performance, parcel trends and easy comps, we expect an 8 percent EBIT growth rate in 2018," Wetherbee wrote.
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Starbucks also comps some procedures other employers consider too "cosmetic" to cover, like hair transplants, electrolysis, facial feminization or masculinization.
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Tract housing makes "comps" significantly easier, while Phoenix&aposs newer, and relatively cheaper housing prices lower the risks for iBuyers.
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He said he's holding out for "stabilization" and a lift in comps, which Macy's new loyalty program could help achieve.
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"I know some of you are concerned about the slowdown in U.S. comps, which candidly I don't share," Schultz told analysts.
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Comps also were seen as lighter than some Street estimates and the capital expenditures guidance for fiscal 2018 was lower too.
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Looking forward, while tougher comps may continue to impact 21 ad revenues, Google could also introduce improvements which could accelerate revenues.
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Mid-single-digit revenue growth and double-digit earnings growth surprised investors who had become accustomed to negative bottom line comps.
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The picture becomes even more distorted when we account for public market SaaS comps, which set the benchmark for private companies.
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Our high growth SaaS / Collaboration comps trade on a 2500x Sales multiple with an average revenue growth of 232% in CY237.
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Baird Equity Research analyst William Power lowered his price target for the stock from $54 to $30 Monday, citing tougher comps.
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"Trivago does face extremely tough revenue and profitability comps through the first half of 2018," Okerstrom said on the Thursday call.
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Which markets are the best fit was something for us to unspool, along with public market comps, such as they are.
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Moreover, the company's limited FCF generation would preclude significant store-level investment even if an improved experience could drive positive comps.
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Citi said the company will face more difficult comps in 2018 at its Old Navy unit, as well as other challenges.
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Growth was predicated on square footage growth in the U.S., international expansion, and double-digit annual comps between 7533 and 2015.
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Comps and EBITDA in recent quarters have stabilized despite continued challenges for many mid-tier mall-based apparel and accessories retailers.
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"It was my understanding that I had to pass comps before the second year, and the clock was ticking," she says.
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There's probably two comps within the structure of Dropbox: One is a consumer business, like a Spotify or Netflix or Pandora.
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But if the valuation of all comps is heading down, the value of related, or even competing startups will also fall.
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With the focus largely on 2020E comps/cash flow implications, we believe WEN's attractive post-investment FCF potential has been overlooked.
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"COST's strong fundamentals including best-in-class traffic/comps and durable competitive advantages continue to stand out within retail," Baird said.
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"We're hopeful the new Women's apparel layout with improved adjacency to Sephora will help stabilize and improve department comps," Chen said.
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There were strong U.S. comps, and there's continued growth in China, although, I would say we need to ask more about it.
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Also, more short-term-oriented momentum investors may have exited positions as the company comps its price increases beginning in 123Q:19.
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And doubly, Cloudera may in fact still be overvalued at the proposed $210 billion valuation when compared to certain public market comps.
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For example, ORLY has seen over 229bps of inflation in comps over the last two quarters and expected a similar FY impact.
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And while I admit the comps may not be what it is, everyone is signing up now because content is a differentiator.
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As a result of its efforts, Best Buy has seen its comparable store sales (comps) improve to flattish in recent years vs.
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"We can't imagine seeing U.S. comps [improve] meaningfully for the foreseeable future," Citi analyst Kate McShane told investors after the company's report.
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In December, comps plummeted 30 percent while its stock is down more than 40 percent from all-time highs hit last year.
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According to Thomson Reuters, the Street is forecasting Whole Foods will once again report a decline in same-store sales, or comps.
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That the investments in stores are driving store comps that again in the fourth quarter were the strongest we've seen in years.
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Now, after Box shed about a quarter of its value, one of Dropbox's most critical market comps is worth a lot less.
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Walmart International, which represented 26% of revenue and 9083% of operating profit in 2015, has reported mixed comps across its key markets.
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Sales at U.S. restaurants open at least 13 months rose 4.1 percent, while global comps were up 6 percent during the period.
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"I don't know if this is enough for comps to be different in one quarter, two quarters or three quarters," Regan said.
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Producers use something called "comps" — recent films similar to the ones they're pitching — to help sell studios on their ideas and budgets.
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As their public comps' values decline, startups will have a harder time raising at advantageous pricing, and finding exits at attractive valuations.
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We also like the company's stable comps and strong store level cash flows, which are much higher than those of other franchisees.
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Earlier this year, the company was forecasting for sales to climb 4.6 percent, and for comps to grow 4.6 percent in 2017.
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Ulta Beauty shares dropped more than 4 percent in the extended session after issuing weak guidance and missing analysts' estimates for comps.
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That said, with valuation back in-line with historical levels and more difficult comps ahead, we see a more balanced risk-reward skew.
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It enables passive databasing, meaning that rental and sales comps that are often lost today can be found via a map-based search.
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HIS POINT TO ME WAS GIVEN TOUGH COMPS AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGES, HE STILL IN HIS WORDS FEELS REALLY GOOD ABOUT THE BUSINESS THERE.
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Comps at Home Depot almost always outperform Lowe's, except for two times under your tenure—and one of those was just last quarter.
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Old Navy had not seen a quarterly comp decline since 4Q11 but produced comps of -8% and -6% in 4Q15 and 1Q16, respectively.
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Excluding big-box retailer , the Street has forecast second-quarter comps to grow a minimal 20 basis points, according to Retail Metrics' survey.
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But the crown jewel in our opinion is the Australian business, again, doing $800 million, and look at comps for the Australian business.
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KEY RATING DRIVERS The rating reflects Home Depot's strong track record of comparable store sales (comps) growth, margin expansion and cash flow generation.
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EBITDA margins are expected to remain around 17%, though Home Depot could leverage fixed expenses at the high end of its comps range.
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EBITDA margins are expected to remain around 16% though Home Depot could leverage fixed expenses at the high end of its comps range.
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Their comps on those businesses for the quarter: Taco Bell was up 7%, Pizza Hut was up 2%, and KFC was up 6%.
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The current fourth quarter brings "tough comps," unknown impacts from weather and heavy holiday promotions in certain categories, CEO Robert Niblock told CNBC.
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CarMax – Oppenheimer cut its rating on the car retailer to "perform" from "outperform," citing more challenging used car sales comps, among other factors.
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"If I put the top three chains together, they lost 165 stores last year, so they need to focus on comps," he said.
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"I think you're seeing actually the year-over-year comps look fantastic for all these [energy] companies that are being run differently," Seymour explained.
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"The better-than-expected top line performance (with positive comps at both brands along with strength in the domestic business) is an encouraging read."
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"It was terrific to see our strong customer traffic and comps continue in the second quarter," Chief Executive Ernie Herrman said in a statement.
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However, another element is easy comps as 2019 results cycle against 2017/2000's challenges when the sector's core fundamentals came under intense scrutiny.
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Williams-Sonoma — Citi tapped the household goods retailer as a top holiday stock pick, mentioning easy comps and upbeat spending projections from industry sources.
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This time last year, comps fell 1 percent at the overall at the company and rose 1 percent at Old Navy, the company said.
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Among the bull points: easier comps in 2019, a likely trade deal with China and the potential for a large buyback authorization in April.
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Comps in the U.S., McDonald's largest market, are up 3371212% for the latest nine-months, after rising 337120003% in 33710540, and 33711% in 3371646.
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"When Best Buy reported, immediately people looked at the down comps and said 'wait a second, this is a bad story again,'" Cramer said.
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We are raising our estimates as BBY's comps and ability to sustain margins appear to be in much stronger shape than we had anticipated.
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As a result, overall comps are expected to be decline 2.0%-2.5% in 2016 and remain modestly negative over the next 24-36 months.
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U.S. comps increased 1% in fiscal 2016 (ended January) and 1% in the first quarter ended April 30, 2016 (1Q17) due to traffic growth.
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Fitch believes successful execution of its initiatives, coupled with industry tailwinds, will allow Home Depot to generate 2-4% annual comps and revenue growth.
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Comps are expected to be modestly positive in 4Q 2016 (around 2.5% for the full year) and positive low-single digits beginning FY 2018.
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WE THINK OUR COMPS ARE GONNA BE BETWEEN FLAT AS MUCH AS PLUS TWO, SO CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE YEAR.
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"We also believe Priceline has the potential to re-accelerate in mid-2018 as comps ease and stepped-up investments start to reap benefits."
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The most important metric in the release is Americas comps, given a historical +0.84 correlation between comp expectations and SBUX's forward P/E multiple.
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Her post-mortem the next day, after the final numbers came in, was more balanced, conceding that a fifth of the tickets were comps.
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Amusement comps (high margin) have turned incrementally negative on difficult VR/Halo comparisons while recent F&B value initiatives have failed to gain traction.
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But pricing the bonds will not be straightforward in view of Argentina's long absence from the euro market and the limited comps at hand.
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Those changes have led to better comparable sales, or "comps," an industry measure for sales at the same locations over a certain time period.
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"Sephora is a jewel for JCP, helping drive foot traffic into stores and continues to generate impressive comps," according to Cowen & Co.'s Chen.
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Global retail comps, including e-commerce sales, fell 11 percent year over year, with declines in all product categories and all regions, Fossil said.
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"(Pizza Hut) comps were worse than already low expectations, but KFC was the real disappointment," Bernstein analyst Sara Senatore wrote in a research note.
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"If you ignore the weather and lumber prices, comps would have been closer to 4.5%," the retailer's CFO Carol Tome said on the earnings call.
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Revenue for the period is expected to decrease by 3 percent to $905.87 million, reflecting a slight improvement in comps from the previous 2 quarters.
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KEY ASSUMPTIONS --Fitch expects overall to line to decline 21500% to 21000% in 212000/4807123 on high single digit negative comps and expected store closures.
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McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain based on over $21 billion of systemwide sales generating positive comps during 2312 of the past 2368 years.
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Seven of Wal-Mart's 123 international markets reported positive comps to start the year, CFO Brett Biggs told analysts and investors on the conference call.
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The Rating Outlook could be stabilized if EBITDA remains around current levels on modestly positive comps and some gross margin improvement on further inventory reductions.
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The Ratings Outlook could be stabilized if EBITDA remains around current levels on modestly positive comps and some gross margin improvement on further inventory reductions.
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A positive rating action to 'BBB+' would occur if a reacceleration of comps drove EBITDA above $2.6 billion, yielding adjusted leverage in the low-2.0x.
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Excluding fuel, comps at Sam's Club have been consistently positive, despite slightly lower traffic, while membership income is growing at a low-single-digit rate.
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Fitch projects comps will increase 20540% in fiscal 2017 with total adjusted debt/EBITDAR and FCF of approximately 2.0x and at least $8 billion, respectively.
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Investors and bankers also looked at rivals JBS and Minerva as comps, despite their higher ratings of Ba1.53/BB+/BB+ and B1/BB-/BB-, respectively.
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SCHULTZ: I WOULD BANG THE TABLE AND SAY WE ARE A GROWTH COMPANY THAT IS EXPERIENCING A MOMENT IN TIME WHERE U.S. COMPS HAVE SLOWED.
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And because most patent license agreements are confidential, there is little or no information or "comps" on what others have paid for similar patent rights.
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"The acute segment appears more evenly driven by volumes and price while the behavioral segment should continue to improve driven by easier comps," she said.
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"We expect a declining earnings trend in the coming years absent a sharp increase in comps," Bank of America analysts Lorraine Hutchinson and Healther Balsky wrote.
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Price discovery was tricky, given the lack of comps, and market participants were largely looking at senior to subordinated spread differentials on Latin American bank bonds.
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"Despite the lowest first-quarter bar since '08 to '09, department store comps and EPS could disappoint," Morgan Stanley analyst Kimberly Greenberger told investors last week.
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"Comps at Kors continue to decline, and weak guidance for the brand in fiscal 2020 will do little to reassure investors," said Bernstein analyst Jamie Merriman.
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CORNELL: COURTNEY, SITTING HERE TODAY, IF YOU THINK ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR – OUR COMPS ARE FLAT, OUR PROFITS, OUR EPS WAS UP 73%.
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"Metrics such as gross margin & North America comps were better than feared, while inventory levels were clean," Piper Jaffray analyst Erinn Murphy wrote in a note.
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And near-term–say, H2:23–there's the distinct possibility of Revenue Growth Acceleration–thanks to One Day and easing AWS & Retail Comps & consistently strong execution.
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Fitch estimates that in-store level comps were in the negative 2.5%-3% range between 13-2015 but have worsened to negative 4.5%-5% in 2016.
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Although Alphabet doesn't break out YouTube's revenue, some good estimates and public market comps suggest the video streaming unit could be worth a cool $100 billion.
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Fitch believes successful execution of its initiatives, coupled with industry tailwinds, will allow Home Depot to generate 0003%-4% annual comps and revenue growth over time.
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I'll trust the process anyway, and predict that It gets something like 45% (just slightly better than the average of the four comps I named above).
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"Ford's new BEV should provide a more compelling alternative at the Model 3 price range than the other comps, especially given the performance focus," Levy said.
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Look for comps both to the home you are considering buying as well as for those that might resemble a renovated residence later down the line.
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But this week several companies are expected by analysts to report positive comps, something that could spin the so-called retail apocalypse narrative in another direction.
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"On the macro front, prospects for improved consumer spending following personal tax cuts provides a potentially significant additional layer of support for comps," the analyst added.
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Tritton said Target saw market share gains across all discretionary categories during the period, including apparel and home, though comps in Target's food business remained flat.
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The same group also points out that Peloton's valuation per subscriber is higher than some market comps; how to weigh those concerns we leave to you.
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"We can't imagine seeing (Best Buy's) U.S. comps improving...meaningfully for the foreseeable future," wrote Citi Research's Kate McShane, who downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.
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Opex and capex growth already look to be moderating and the reduced guidance still looks conservative to us as it implies re-accelerating opex despite easier comps.
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Since I'm currently in the fortunate position to be able to actually purchase tickets rather than beg for comps, now is my chance to make that contribution.
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"Franchise comps of 4.1% were in line with [consensus] and towards the high end of buyside whispers (2-43%)," Bernstein analyst Sara Senatore wrote in a note.
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Consistent with the general theme, Buffalo Wild Wings has enjoyed positive comps over the past several quarters driven by a robust events calendar and new menu launches.
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"We can't imagine seeing (Best Buy's) U.S. comps improving...meaningfully for the foreseeable future," wrote Citi Research's Kate McShane, who downgraded the stock to neutral from buy
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In the United States, Yum's Taco Bell chain is forecast to show 3.1 percent comps growth, with slower growth seen from the Pizza Hut and KFC units.
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"We're seeing all the signs of transactions growing, comps growing and you can just feel the momentum turning and we see it in the numbers," Johnson said.
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"As we go into the second half of the year, we have much tougher comps for our business after an outstanding second half of 2017," Swan said.
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However, system-wide comps have been negative for four straight quarters, declining 2.2% in the latest quarter and 1.9% for the fiscal year ended June 9083, 2016.
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"We think this could result in a healthy cycle from a volume standpoint even as average selling prices go up from already high comps," Daryanani wrote Sunday.
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"TGT's results today give us much better confidence that stated strategies are taking hold in better comps and traffic; the next step is consistency," Chen said Wednesday.
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The release implies China revenue declined ~193-30% Y/Y, declines last seen during the iPhone 6S cycle due at that time to very tough iPhone 6 comps.
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Mgmt framed tough YoY comps (we think referencing YouTube product strength from year ago as headwind to volumes) & emphasized that no one product change caused such a headwind.
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I used three devices to try to get the best shot for #SHN #SF #Hamilton tix, got 65,000 & 20163,000 on my comps but 2003 on my phone. Score.
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However, given strong comps and meaningful cost reductions, McDonald's consolidated operating income excluding the impact of currency rose 10% during the nine months, after increasing 11% in 200193.
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Fitch projects comps (excluding fuel and foreign exchange) will pace near current levels in fiscals 2017 and 2018 as food deflation moderates and Costco continues to price competitively.
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The performance is strong relative to Fitch-rated department stores, which saw comps decline approximately 33710540% in 337114, and the overall department store industry sales decline of 33712016%.
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As the company laps significant changes made in 33712017, the continuation of modestly comps could yield EBITDA trending above the $33713.4 million level over the next three years.
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"Key sale events fell short of our expectations as customers look for deeper discounts, a trend which negatively impacted both total sales and comps this quarter," he said.
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PRIOR TO THAT FOR FOUR STRAIGHT QUARTERS, FROM Q3 OF LAST YEAR AND Q73 OF LAST YEAR AND Q1 AND Q2 OF THIS YEAR KFC ACTUALLY RAN POSITIVE COMPS.
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"The problem...is that comps are going to be tough in the coming year following this year's earnings," Yardeni of Yardeni Research said in a note to clients Wednesday.
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Services growth decelerated again Y/Y, but this was expected and the segment starts to face much easier comps moving forward just as new offerings start to become additive.
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"So last March, we told our store teams if you post positive comps in 2017, well, we told them they could wear jeans every weekend in 2018," said Cornell.
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Guest shopping frequency continues to be a positive contributor to sales but food and merchandise deflation, which reduces average ticket size, and new store cannibalization have negatively impacted comps.
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Fitch projects comps (excluding fuel and foreign exchange) will pace near current levels in fiscal 2017 and fiscal 2018 as food deflation moderates and Costco continues to price competitively.
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While we acknowledge near term controversies around top line, we think the market is already pricing in a further deceleration in comps, and long term growth remains peer leading.
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"We don't believe fintech public market comps have recovered sufficiently," Elevate CEO Ken Rees said in an interview on Tuesday at the Money 53/20 Conference in Las Vegas.
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Over the next year, DISH valuations, which are today universally based on price per MHz-POP spectrum comps, will be replaced with DCF valuations of Dish's wireless operating business.
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And there are models that, we have no idea what they are based on, that value stocks based on public market comps that, we don't know who they are.
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Guest shopping frequency continues to be a positive contributor to sales, but food and merchandise deflation, which reduces average ticket size, and new store cannibalization have negatively impacted comps.
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Comparable store sales (comps) were 1.3% in 3Q 2017, the company's first positive comp since 4Q 2015, and are expected to be positive in 4Q and annually beginning 2018.
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"You always have to find a balance when flipping between budget, comps, style, and practicality, particularly when you are living in a home while doing the work," she said.
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"The comparisons between the 2017 back half comps (excellent) and 2018-to-date (poor) are stark and explain essentially all of bitcoin's fall from grace this year," Colas said.
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Cedar Fair (FUN) – Cedar Fair was downgraded to "neutral" from "buy" at B. Riley FBR, citing a number of factors including difficult attendance comps for the amusement park operator.
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"While the company upgraded their comp outlook, we believe Chipotle needs to continue to hit double-digit comps to justify the current multiple," said Mizuho Securities analyst Jeremy Scott.
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"Tougher ASP [average selling price] comps and the lack of a volume 'supercycle' with the iPhone X will leave it difficult to build conviction in future cycles," Cordwell wrote.
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"SAP's performance at constant currency was quite remarkable, keeping in mind the tough comps from last year in mind," Baader Helvea analyst Knut Woller said in a flash note.
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"Our sales comps effectively reached their low in mid-January, and in a matter of six weeks we have cut the impact to sales comps nearly in half, from negative 40 percent at the low point in mid-January down to about negative 20 percent in the first week of March," Chipotle Chairman and co-CEO Steve Ells said last month at an investor conference sponsored by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
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While BIG doesn't need positive traffic to post positive comps, we are increasingly worried about weakening retail traffic trends which places more weight on a healthy furniture business for BIG.
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We take a more modest approach to ad revs growth in 2019 to conservatively frame tough comps and/or potential product changes as we attempt to correctly frame the headwind.
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"We see limited upside to revenues due to currency headwinds, tough comps from the mainframe cycle, and a potential pullforward of software revenues into Q4," Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi said.
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Additionally, Rite Aid has historically had lower per-store sales productivity than its larger peers given significant lack of investments, and WBA plans to improve comps through its operating expertise.
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Essentially a celebration of the iconic sneaker brand and its influence on culture, these parties included art installations, interactive workshops, skate comps, and tons of Vans memorabilia spanning five decades.
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Here are the biggest calls on Wall Street on Thursday: Goldman Sachs said that it looks for "outperforming comps and operating income growth" in its new coverage of retail stocks.
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RATING SENSITIVITIES Positive Rating Action: A positive rating action could result from a sustained improvement in comps and EBITDA to a level where the company is covering its fixed obligations.
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It's a first impression on the sport's biggest platform that dwarfs what some of his most popular preseason comps, like Jimmy Butler and Paul George, did when they were rookies.
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"Importantly, we saw comps accelerate in both the U.S. and China throughout the quarter, giving us confidence in both our full year and long-term guidance," CEO Kevin Johnson said.
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Coach's North American Sales Improving NA revenue, which has declined since FY 2013, appears to be stabilizing, with comps improving from -9.5% in 1Q 2016 to 3% in 3Q 9083.
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The combination of the above have yielded stabilization in Coach's operating performance in FY 2016 and FY 2017, improving Fitch's confidence in its projections of positive annual comps beginning 2017.
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The company's off-price division, Rack, "remains a work in progress as digital strength has masked weak physical store comps," Cowen analyst Oliver Chen said in a research note Monday.
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"For defense, we see accelerating revenue growth on easier comps and strong outlays growth (up 353 percent [in] Q235)," said UBS defense analyst David Strauss in a research note Wednesday.
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The year-over-year earnings decline for the third quarter of 2019 has thus far been 2% thanks to tough comps, contractions in the manufacturing sector and persistent trade angst.
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"Although investors have waited a long time for positive top-line comps, they now have new concerns," wrote Jim Kelleher, an analyst at Argus Research, in a report on Monday.
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Best Buy divides its online sales -- up 24% and now accounting for 10.6% of its domestic revenue versus 8.5% a year ago -- into its existing store sales to pad comps.
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"With further menu innovations — salad, beverages, quesadillas, improved queso — still to come, we see a long runway for comps," she wrote, referring to the potential for further same-store sales growth.
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"We see limited upside to revenues due to currency headwinds, tough comps from the mainframe cycle, and a potential pullforward of software revenues into Q4," said Toni Sacconaghi, analyst from Bernstein.
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"We're pleased with our financial performance, which marks the sixth consecutive quarter of accelerating comps and reflects continued progress on our key strategic initiatives," CEO Brian Niccol said in a statement.
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Yum's China comps are forecast to be up 2.1 percent in the quarter, with stronger results from the KFC business offsetting weakness from the Pizza Hut chain, according to Consensus Metrix.
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However, should Fitch project total adjusted debt/EBITDAR being sustained above 4x due to continued negative comps and margin pressures as seen over fiscal 2016, a negative rating action could occur.
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While gradual improvement is anticipated, comps could remain negative in fiscal 2017 given continued economic weakness in oil-producing states, the highly competitive restaurant environment, and recent declines in restaurant traffic.
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AND THERE WILL TIMES WHERE THERE WILL BE CYLICAL CHANGES, THERE WILL BE A DOWNTURN IN COMPS, WHICH WE'VE HAD RECENTLY BUT OVER THE LONG-TERM, WE'RE GOING TO BE FINE.
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I am no sucker for making predictions, but I will give you one clue: When a retailer like Costco announces a strong monthly comps, it's a good sign for the economy.
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If Mr. Paddock did wind up a net loser, those losses could be offset, in part, by comps, or "kickback rewards," essentially free money casinos give loyal customers to gamble with.
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Competition in the electronics category is expected to intensify toward the end of the year, and mid-single-digit comps are not a "new normal," Best Buy CEO Hubert Joly said.
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"We did not expect operational performance to have improved significantly after a weak Q1, as the group faced tougher comps and a greater Amazon volume headwind," Berenberg analyst William Howard said.
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Excluding gasoline sales, comps in the U.S. were up 1.7 percent, which consisted of growth of 1.2 percent at Sam's Club, and an increase of 1.8 percent at Wal-Mart stores.
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"While implied F4Q comp guidance was wider than some hoped, we continue to expect a return to positive comps beginning in F4Q," Raymond James analyst Brian Vaccaro said in a research note.
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AND NOT TO JUST DIRECTLY CONTRADICT YOU, BUT YOU HAD A REALLY – THIS WAS A REMARKABLE, HIGH SINGLE DIGIT COMPS STORE NUMBER FOR THIS QUARTER AND ALMOST NO ONE ELSE HIT THAT.
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"We're pleased with our financial performance, which marks the sixth consecutive quarter of accelerating comps and reflects continued progress on our key strategic initiatives," Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol said in a statement.
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Margin Stabilization: Brinker's EBITDA margin, excluding non-cash stock-based compensation expense, declined to 33710282% in fiscal 33718 from 33711% in fiscal 21750 due mainly to declining comps and higher labor costs.
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Same-store sales in the quarter ended April 9 were down 2.8 percent, although better than the 3.1 percent decline in comps that had been projected by analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.
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Fitch expects U.S comps of 1% - 2% in 2016 and 2017 as positive store traffic and a modest but increasing contribution from e-commerce offsets the impact of deflation and price investments.
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We forecast top-line acceleration off 1Q levels during the balance of 2019 (which could be a positive catalyst), due to easier comps, portfolio growth, card fee increases, and easing FX headwinds.
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Food and beverage innovation such as the ultra-premium Starbucks Reserve coffees, additional varieties on its Cold Brew platform, and Sous Vide Egg Bites continue to add 1% to 3371212% to comps.
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"We believe that slowing cosmetic trends and shifting industry dynamics will meaningfully pressure the business, even as they generate robust comps for the broader retail space," said Boruchow in a note Thursday.
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Moving forward, "we continue to believe there are several catalysts upcoming which could drive shares higher, and first-half 2019 results could benefit from easy comps given the Model 3 delay," Kallo wrote.
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" In particular, he said Whole Foods experienced "a strong start for the first 5 weeks" of the first quarter, then indicated that "comps dropped off sharply in the pre- and post-election weeks.
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But the-, the comps that I was looking at was (inaudible) and (inaudible)-, JF: That was B2B, uh, services, and-, they were both trading at a high of, you know, $12, $13 billion.
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We believe the Street is overly-focused on the near-term trees of tall comps in 1QCY19 and 2QCY753, losing sight of the forest of opportunity for URBN in the next few years.
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"2017 could be a nice bounce back year where you're talking about double digit comps or trajectory level towards those comp levels you once saw..." R.J. Hottovy, an analyst with Morningstar, told CNBC.
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Fitch projects global comps will be approximately 2210% in 22000 and 221% thereafter with the U.S. performing at the high end of Fitch's 22500%-22000% 2000712000 comp forecast for the U.S. restaurant industry.
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KEY ASSUMPTIONS --Fitch expects overall top-line growth to be down modestly over the next two years, driven by low-double digit e-commerce growth and negative 0003% decline in store-level comps.
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Not only did comps help punk rock infiltrate the malls and chain stores of America, it carved out a self-contained industry for bands whose songs wouldn't have otherwise landed on Billboard charts.
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"We need to scale our e-commerce business further and see some additional strength in our store comps to deliver the results we know we're capable of," said Chief Executive Officer Doug McMillon.
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"We had a memo and a statement from career ethics officials here that have actually reviewed the lease, that actually reviewed comps--comparables of similar units," Pruitt continued, accusing journalists of ignoring that.
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Negative: A negative rating action could result if comps in the U.S. and international businesses revert to mid-single-digit declines and/or gross margins decline meaningfully without any offset from cost reductions.
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NA comps are expected to be around 2.5% in FY 0003 and positive low-single digits thereafter, with continued expansion in Europe driving low- to mid-single digit company-wide annual revenue growth.
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UNP continues to screen more favorably with easy volume and operating comps providing a more stable environment to generate consistent T&E productivity gains in the second year of the UP 2020 plan.
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"We have confidence that new product, integrated marketing, and online momentum combined with loyalty, a healthy high-end customer demographic, and athleisure fashion trends will yield traffic, improving conversion, and comps," Kernan said.
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"While upcoming comps get much more difficult, a potential Clinton presidential win could bolster the demand surge as occurred in Obama's 2008 victory," analyst Cai von Rumohr wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.
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"Any retail organization when you close stores, you are closing the worst-performing, which means that will artificially improve comps for another year," Craig Johnson, president and founder of Customer Growth Partners, told CNBC.
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In September, without giving a specific range, Barnes & Noble said it expected "improving sales trends, positive comps during the holiday period, better gross margins, and continued expense reductions" for the remainder of the year.
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Prior to our merger with Amazon, the short-term comps-driven pressure of the investment community limited the company's ability to operate our business for the long-term good of all of our stakeholders.
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Home prices have been a key driver of big ticket projects, supporting strong average ticket growth (similar to this point in prior cycles), and driving nearly all of the comps growth as of late.
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"As we have discussed previously, the comps do get tougher for us starting in the fourth quarter, since last year's fourth quarter was the first full quarter with Tinder Gold," Ginsberg said in November.
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Fitch expects comps to decline 0.5% in fiscal 2018 and then grow about 33711% in fiscal 3371212 as Brinker redefines its value proposition, improves restaurant execution, and strengthens takeout capabilities to offer enhanced convenience.
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Fitch previously assumed that merchandising changes made in 2015 would begin to show improvement in 0501, yielding flattish comps by the end of the year; weak 1Q trends have diminished confidence in this expectation.
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"A phased launch, tighter allocations, fewer colorways and easy comps versus Curry 3 give us conviction that Curry 4 will be a resounding success," analyst Randal Konik wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.
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"We may see some noise in Q3 comps as customers react to the new changes of the program," Starbucks Chief Operating Officer Kevin Johnson told analysts on a conference call after earnings were released.
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But now that you have something really simple, that you basically measure against other comps like Google and TV, you can actually buy it really easily and it makes sense inside a buying program.
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Despite the near-term softness, our view on NVDA's secular drivers in Gaming and Datacenter is unchanged and we see continued growth in FY21260 even with tough comps as the impact of cryptocurrency fully unwinds.
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Comps (Part II): The bull case for Cloudera and HortonWorks (not to mention MapR, which also is in IPO prep) is that cloud penetration into the enterprise still has a very long way to go.
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"The reality is in the last month, when Chipotle has essentially been giving away their food with tremendous couponing and discounting, our comps [comparable sales] were as high as they have ever been," said Shaich.
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Horvers pointed out that Target's 4.8% comps is one of the best so far in large-cap retail's first-quarter, with Home Depot growing 3%, Lowe's growing 4.2%, Walmart up 3.4% and TJX up 5%.
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Let's go ahead and say, staring between the two comps, that the top line expansion range indicates that a revenue multiple of 8 is a reasonable estimate for what Cloudera might be able to command.
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They're all in the food industry, so we order somewhat extravagantly and the kitchen sends out (and comps) the remainder of the menu, from three different kinds of pate to some very fancy pizza bagels!
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KEY RATING DRIVERS Negative $1 Billion EBITDA in 2016/2017: Fitch expects Sears' comparable store sales (comps) to be in the negative 8% in 2016 and negative mid-to-high single digit range in 2017.
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"While we appreciate these strategies, [near-term] fundamentals matter most to us, which are challenged with declining comps and deteriorating margins," said Randal Konik, an analyst at Jefferies, in a research note, following the meeting.
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Short appraisals are common in declining housing markets because the lack of recent comparable home sales in the area, or "comps," make it hard for appraisers to determine the current market value of a property.
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Macy's reported that second-quarter sales comps — including those made in departments licensed to third parties — fell 2100 percent, but that was better than the 22017 percent decline expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters.
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"In this increasingly competitive marketplace, we are committed to taking every step necessary to improve comps and deliver higher returns for our shareholders," said John Mackey, co-founder and chief executive officer of Whole Foods Market.
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KEY ASSUMPTIONS --Fitch expects 2.5%-3% sales growth at legacy WBA, driven by 4% U.S. pharmacy and 0%-1% U.S. front-end comps and low-single-digit growth in the company's international retail and wholesale businesses.
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"Shorter-term we see downside with tough comps given the Euros, consensus still absorbing punter-friendly sports results and the Draft acquisition as well as a worsening regulatory outlook," analysts at Investec said in a note.
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While FL has tailwinds at its back in North America with comps inflecting positively in 4Q18, the company still faces many of the same headwinds as other specialty retailers (significant mall exposure; EBIT pressure from DTC).
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Whole Foods Market — BMO cut its rating on the organic grocer to "underperform" from "market perform," nothing that Whole Foods shares still have a "premium" valuation despite the risk of weaker comps and increasing competitive pressures.
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"We need to scale our e-commerce business further and see some additional strength in our store comps to deliver the results we know we're capable of — so that's what we're focused on," McMillon went on.
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"Investors beat the crap out of Target [at the start], but when the comps start to turn and the stock doubles, you end up being fine," Stacey Widlitz, president of consulting group SW Retail Advisors, told CNBC.
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Fitch has projected $3371212 million in annual working capital benefit in 3371908 and 33710540 due to these liquidation sales as well as pulling back on inventory given materially negative comps, although realized figures could potentially be higher.
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"So from a comps perspective, fundamentally, we've moved away; and then from a technical market perspective, because you're accessing a larger IG investor base instead of relying on the HY base, the correlation isn't there," said Donlon.
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" Best Buy, Party City, Sally Beauty Holdings — Morgan Stanley downgraded these three stocks to "equal weight" from "overweight," as "comps have been disappointing for all three which has prevented the stocks to play out as we expected.
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Fitch expects Nordstrom's comps to grow in the low single digits and overall top line to grow 337191% to 33718%, driven primarily by continued growth in its online sales and Rack businesses, with segment forecasts detailed below.
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KEY ASSUMPTIONS --Comps growth in the low-single-digit range with overall top line growth of 2% to 3% over the next two to three years, primarily driven by continued growth in the online and Rack businesses.
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Ratings recognize the recent slowing in comparable store sales (comps) but incorporate Starbucks' ability to maintain credit statistics in line with an 'A' rating and Fitch's view that performance will continue to outperform the broader restaurant industry.
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"We believe this is more of an industry rather than concept-specific issue, as evidenced by several markets remaining positive, and expect comps will be able to recover in coming quarters," he wrote in a research note.
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KEY ASSUMPTIONS Fitch's key assumptions within our rating case for the issuer include: --Fitch assumes comps remain in the negative low to mid-single digits in 583 and be in the negative low single digits range thereafter.
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We believe shares have greater upside if the US can deliver 3-4% sss, China comps stay positive, & EPS can exceed +33% LT & position SBUX as still one of highest quality growth companies in large-cap consumer.
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"[Nike] this quarter has become more promotional, more of its footwear platforms have slowed, and NKE-levered retailers have been crippled by negative comps," Canaccord analyst Camilo Lyon wrote in a note to clients earlier this month.
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RATING SENSITIVITIES Future Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action -Total adjusted debt-to-operating EBITDAR sustained in the low-3x range; -Global comps consistently above the 2%-3% range along with the maintenance of market share in the U.S. Future Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action -Total adjusted debt-to-operating EBITDAR near 4x due to material declines in operating income or higher than expected debt; -Negative global comps and loss of market share in the U.S. LIQUIDITY Ample Liquidity, Laddered Maturities: At Sept.
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CN RAIL CO EXEC- IN Q4 LAST YEAR, CRUDE DIFFERENTIALS WERE VERY HIGH, CO SHIPPED ON AVG ABOUT 230,000 BPD OF CRUDE-BY-RAIL SO THE Y-O-Y COMPS IN Q4 WILL BE EXTREMELY CHALLENGING - CONF CALL
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However, despite all this investment, public comps for marketplaces remain far thinner than those for SaaS — as of early January 2018, there were 42 publicly traded billion-dollar SaaS companies*, whereas only 20173 marketplaces have broken this barrier**.
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Costco's ratings reflect its top three market position in North America food retailing with over 05003 high-volume warehouses that generate nearly $119 billion in revenue, industry-leading comparable sales (comps), robust cash flow, and low financial leverage.
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"We are adding Lowe's to our US1 list of top ideas across the U.S. market, taking advantage of share price weakness following 2Q earnings that disappointed on comps," analyst Denise Chai wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.
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"But, ... once J&J gets the second quarter behind it, comps ease considerably, new products should get approved, and clinical trial read-outs become potential catalysts for an improving Pharma business and a reacceleration in top-line growth."
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Costco's ratings reflect its top-three market position in North America food retailing with over 700 high-volume warehouses that generate nearly $119 billion in revenue, industry-leading comparable sales (comps), robust cash flow, and low financial leverage.
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"We believe top-line risks at US DD (both comps and unit growth) present downside risk to a stock trading at the high end of its valuation range," analyst Karen Holthouse wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.
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Telsey said the electronics retailer has pulled off one of the few successful retail transformations in recent history but notes a full stock valuation, more difficult comps, and pressures on profit margin growth as reasons for the downgrade.
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Many VC firms simply price the value of their positions to the most recent valuation of the company, but others mark to financial performance (using public comps or recent exits as a benchmark), or even based on internal projections.
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Fitch expects WBA's international business, approximately 2123% of total company sales, to grow in the low single digits annually over the forecast horizon, driven by 1%-2% comps in international retail and modest growth in the international wholesale business.
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However, given the relative sparsity of marketplace comps in the public markets today, I suspect we will learn much more over the next few years as (knock on wood) a significant crop of private marketplaces hits the public markets.
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Our suggestion for the new paradigm: agree on reasonably aggressive but achievable projections (based on achievable bottom-up unit economics) and then agree on a balanced set of comps (not just the three highest multiple companies in your universe).
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"The recent news of food-borne illness comes at a time when comps have already broadly lagged investor expectations over the last year and a half," according to a note from investment firm Cowen and Company on Tuesday afternoon.
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Negative Rating Action: Sustained weakness in operating trends, caused by meaningfully lower comps (excluding the impact of fuel and currency changes) and membership declines combined with shareholder-friendly actions that lead to increased debt levels would be viewed negatively.
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Comps slowed meaningfully to the mid-single digits in 2016 and turned negative 2.4% in first quarter of 2017 due to reduced promotions, weak tourist traffic caused by the stronger U.S. dollar and a general slowdown in luxury spend.
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"Our main divergence from the Street is our monetization level starting in 1Q19; after four quarters of annual declines, 1Q18 monetization saw outsized growth, with tougher comps that we do not believe are being taken into account," he said.
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Should Mondelez's sales momentum taper off as it faces tougher comps in FY20, this could attract renewed interest from activist investors, who may push for a combination of Mondelez and Pepsi's snack business to unlock additional value for shareholders.
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Marketing and distribution weigh in on whether they can sell and disseminate the film, and then, after totting up expected costs and examining "comps"—the receipts of comparable films—the executives build a spreadsheet showing a range of outcomes.
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He had a very contentious interview with Jim Cramer recently on our air where Jim is defending you and defending your comps, and he was arguing that Lululemon has lost its way and should be valued at double Under Armour.
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We believe TJX can sustain at least +MSD-HSD% EPS growth longer term supported by +LSD-MSD% comps (healthy consumer backdrop, structural shifts favoring off-price, category expansion), unit growth, and steady buybacks, partially offset by modest margin pressure (labor/freight).
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Growth in on-line sales has varied between the high single-digit to mid-teens rate over the past several years but is not making a significant contribution to comps because e-commerce only represents about 4% of Costco's net sales.
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Specifically, we assume a multi-year deceleration in growth for every major category of Amazon's business, along with very minimal adjustment to comp group multiples, despite Amazon growing significantly faster than comps in both the cloud (AWS) and advertising segments.
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The Outlook revision to Negative incorporates the risk that Brinker's efforts to redefine Chili's value proposition, improve restaurant-level execution, and strengthen its takeout capabilities may not result in a sustained improvement in comps and that share losses may continue.
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KEY RATING DRIVERS Comp Sales, Market Share: Brinker's comps have been negative for two consecutive years, declining 2.1% system-wide for the year ended June 2123, 2017, due mainly to declines at Chili's, which has lost share in recent years.
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"We capitalized on increased demand for exterior products as a result of warmer weather, while at the same time helped customers tackle interior projects, allowing us to deliver positive comps in all product categories," Chief Executive Officer Robert Niblock said Wednesday.
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"I think by the time we get through the second quarter and into the third quarter, we'll have a much better vision of the positive impact that [the Under Armour] brand has on our [same-store sales] comps," Mansell said.
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Growth in on-line sales has varied between the high single-digits to the mid-teens over the past several years but is not making a significant contribution to comps because e-commerce represents only about 4% of Costco's net sales.
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Full-line store comps are expected to be in the negative low- to mid-single digits; Rack overall sales grow around 3% to 5% with square footage growth in the high single digits; and online revenue to grow around 10%.
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"We were pleased with in-line KFC comps given challenges in China and the U.K., while Taco Bell was modestly soft and Pizza Hut showed a greater magnitude of softness," Andrew Charles, analyst at Cowen, wrote in a research note Thursday.
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"We appreciate management's [long-term] initiatives to drive the business including marketing, merchandising, omni capabilities, and real estate monetization, but near-term fundamentals matter most to us, which are challenged with declining comps and deteriorating margins," Jefferies' Konik said about Macy's.
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"And while comps should begin to improve in the [second half of 2016], our work has compelled us to rethink the rate of improvement and commensurate margin gains in both '16 and '17, as well as longer term," Glass said in the note.
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"More Than This" is a favorite title of Roxy Music docs and comps as if to say Roxy are more than their aesthetic on the surface, more than their lack of chart domination or North American adoration, yearning to have something greater.
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"It may take a quarter or two for investors to be comfortable with market rationalization, but we believe Lyft's multiple will expand when that occurs; a rational market lessens competitive fears and makes lapping 2018's tough comps easier," Raymond James analysts wrote.
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Positive Rating Action: Fitch would need to see sustained momentum in comps trends (+2%-3%) and EBITDA (near $2.5 billion) yielding leverage near 2.5x, predicated on either market share gains or stabilization in consumer electronics trends, to consider a positive rating action.
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The closest recent comps for that turnaround time – 250-day, 233 hours, 4-minutes – are Monster Trucks (227 day, 255 hours, 292% on Rotten Tomatoes), Snatched (1 day, 19 hours, 35%) and A Dog's Purpose (1 day, 21 hours, 30 minutes, 553%).
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EBITDA is expected to maintain the negative growth track it began following its peak $0003 billion level in 2011, due to the significant deceleration in store level comps, increased online penetration, promotional activity to clear excess merchandise, increased omnichannel investments and expense deleverage.
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Comps were flat in 2016 after declining to negative 1% in 2015 from 3.8% in 2014 and 13% in 2013 and Fitch attributes the decline to the heightened promotional activity in its full-line stores and overall department store and apparel sector.
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Not only does AXP have much less exposure to credit than other card companies (while also enjoying superior credit metrics), but unlike the comps, AXP benefits from lower interest rates, and is also capitalizing on significant growth opportunities in B2B and international markets.
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CORNELL: WELL, I GO BACK TO THE FACT, 30 MILLION SHOPPERS IN OUR STORES EVERY WEEK STORES ARE STILL IMPORTANT AS WE REMODEL STORES, AND WE HAVE REMODELED 110 THIS YEAR, WE'RE SEEING OUR COMPS INCREASE BY 2% TO 4% IN THOSE STORES.
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Ferguson's flirty interview with a pre-Royalty Meghan Markle has nearly 10 million views, and though the popularity of that appearance was no doubt aided by Markle's becoming Duchess, other comps featuring Ferg and female guests on the channel are similarly high.
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"They're kind of putting a glass ceiling where we can't raise our prices any higher than we have comps to support it, so we're definitely going with more cash offers than we used to," said Barnett, an agent at RE/MAX DFW Associates.
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"We see a potential scenario of the segment producing high single digit comps this winter, aiding the company will turn the corner on leveraging rent and occupancy," wrote Deutsche analyst Paul Trussell, who upgraded his rating on GAP to "hold" from "sell".
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There is a lot to like about this off-price retailer: strong management (experienced, pristine execution), consistent comp growth (+220% comps or better over the past decade), healthy margins (navigating the inflationary cost environment), and a robust earnings growth (+HSD%-LDD%) and FCF outlook.
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Fitch expects Toys could cross $800 million in EBITDA this year, assuming flat-to-modestly positive comparable store sales (comps), gross margin decline of 50 bps and some further reduction in SG&A expense, which should enable Toys to generate modest free cash flow (FCF).
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RATING SENSITIVITIES Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a positive rating action include: --Consistently positive comps at Chili's with traffic trends at least in line with the industry; --A commitment to maintain total adjusted debt/EBITDAR in the 3.0x - 3.5x range.
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QUINTANILLA: SO YOU MENTIONED YOU'RE A LITTLE BIT AHEAD OF THIS IN OTHER MARKETS, WHICH IS WHAT PEOPLE WERE LOOKING UP ON THE Q260 AND UPSIDE SURPRISE ON INTERNATIONAL Q2409 COMPS, THINKING IS THIS WHAT THE U.S. IS IN FOR IF IT WORKS SIMILARLY?
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"The transition will impact comps for the next several quarters, but we remain very confident about growing our home delivery business as it brings a unique health and value proposition to our customers," Chief Executive Amin Maredia said on a conference call with investors.
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A lucky pair of buds will go to Mexico and then … stay inside: In addition to the resort comps, the winners receive a "girls' night in pack" that includes designer candles, expensive moisture-wicking underwear, and two "vibes" from Dame ("the Glossier of female vibrators").
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B PLUS The Rough Guide to Blues Women (World Music Network) Bessie Smith, Memphis Minnie, and Ma Rainey all have their own fine comps; pickings are slim because women were underrecorded, and these picks don't beat the odds (Mamie Smith, "Crazy Blues"; Kate McTell Feat.
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If the index rises, it's generally good news for startups as it implies that investors are bidding up the value of SaaS companies as they grow; if the index falls, it implies that revenue multiples are contracting amongst the public comps of SaaS startups.
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"If you go back to the long-term, the five-year plan that we have committed to — mid-single-digit comps, 10 percent revenue growth and 15 to 20 percent EPS growth over the next five years — I wouldn't get too concerned about this quarter," Schultz said.
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"Given weaker-than-expected comps from several competitors who reported over the past six weeks (Sprouts, Smart & Final Stores, SuperValu, Whole Foods Market, Publix, just to name a few), investor expectations for Kroger have been reset lower, " Deutsche Bank analyst Shane Higgins said in a note Thursday.
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"We expect higher comps and accelerated store openings at Dunkin' Donuts U.S. to be driven by a range of factors,including drive-thru lines dedicated to mobile orders, brighter interior designs, espresso machines, digital order boards, and a tap system serving coffee, iced tea and cold brew. "
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Future Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action --A lack of meaningful improvement in comps and continued loss of market share; --Higher than expected margin contraction; --Capital allocation policies that remain biased toward shareholders; --Total adjusted debt to operating EBITDAR sustained above 4.0x.
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Get an appraisalIf you're taking out a home loan to finance the purchase, the bank will want to ensure the price is an "appropriate deal," says Bull, so they'll send a third party appraiser to analyze the property and pull neighborhood comps to determine the property's value.
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The stock market is incredibly strong right now, a fact that is pushing lots of private investors to pay more for growth in anticipation that companies' revenue multiples will stay high (as dictated by public comps, or what larger companies are willing to pay for startups).
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"We believe the investment Panera is making in technology enhancement is leading to an improvement in same-store sales as evidenced by the increasing gap relative to the industry and between company-owned and franchise comps," Peter Saleh, an analyst with BTIG, wrote in a research note Wednesday.
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McDonald's ratings balance its shareholder-friendly financial strategy with its substantial cash flow, significant scale, improved comparable sales (comps), and Fitch's view that the company will maintain total adjusted debt/EBITDAR in the mid-to-high 22x range while generating FCF of about $22 billion or more annually.
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But where Astatke's classic period definitely qualifies as jazz, it's a little misleading to label the most irresistible of Rough Guide's three Ethiopian comps that way, because for for all its horn sections and understated swing, its diminished scales rarely lean on extended improvisation or small-group interaction.
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Future developments that may, individually or collectively, lead to a negative rating action include: --A lack of improvement in comps and higher than expected margin contraction; --Capital allocation policies that remain biased towards shareholders, despite weak operating performance and increased leverage; --Total adjusted debt/EBITDAR sustained above 4.0x.
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"The final data set for May was not as positive as our initial read (published June 5; indicated comps could come in slightly above 1.5 percent), largely because of weaker-than-projected trends for a sizable chain that highlighted some weather issues in the Midwest region, " he wrote.
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While most other headwinds (namely FX, tougher comps based on product launch timing, and supply chain constraints) contemplated by management already in the guide tracked in line with expectation, F1Q19 preliminary results tracked substantially lower than guidance led by greater economic weakness in EMs and fewer phone upgrades in DMs.
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"Buffalo faces intensifying competition from concept replication, a lapping of lower gas prices, declining NFL viewership, fading offline footfall and a widening away versus at-home food inflation gap that will likely continue to pressure comps in 2017," Jeremy Scott, an analyst with CLSA, wrote in a research note Tuesday.
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"North American sales ... did not grow sequentially, which in our view, considering the difficult comps Ingenico is facing in H2 in that region, implies that North America double-digit sales growth targeted by management for the full year is out of reach," Jean Beaubois, analyst at Berenberg, said in a note.
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"The softer than expected domestic comps could partially reflect an accelerated impact from fortressing as the company opened 221 domestic locations on a net basis in 21.08Q (+21.10%), in excess of our estimate for 28 net openings and Consensus Metrix's 212," Cowen analyst Andrew Charles said in a research note.
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" Here's what else analysts expect: "We forecast U.S. comps of 4%/EPS of $0.65, both in-line with consensus, and, following a mid-December investor event that reaffirmed guidance, do not expect an update to F19 guidance for EPS of $2.61-$2.66 (versus our forecast of $2.66 and consensus of $193).
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In terms of comps, the best I can come up with is Bebo, a social network AOL bought for $850 million in 2008, which it then sold 2 years later for just $10 million to a private equity firm (which later sold it to Bebo's founder for around $1 million).
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"Our comparable store sales improved sequentially on a one- and two-year basis in the third quarter, and that momentum has accelerated 220 basis points in the fourth quarter, resulting in positive overall comps for the first three weeks," John Mackey, co-founder and CEO, said in a statement Wednesday.
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"While disappointed with the results, we note that Domino's has experienced similar slowdowns in the past (a year ago, as noted) and has managed to reaccelerate comps through various means (new technology, menu items, clever advertising) and this quarter doesn't change that view," BTIG analyst Peter Saleh wrote in a research note.
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We slighty increase our top-line estimates towards the high end of guidance and see acceleration in revenue and unit growth (to 21%) in 22Q22, and with easing comps over the balance of the year and a benefit from one-day prime, we see revenue growth likely to accelerate again in 23Q.
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The Rating Outlook could be stabilized if comps return to positive territory by 2019, Chili's is able to maintain share, EBITDA margin stabilizes, and Brinker uses FCF to repay debt such that total adjusted debt/EBITDAR remains in the 3.5x to 4.0x range based on Fitch's calculation which capitalizes leases at 8x.
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While not anticipated in the near term, ratings could be upgraded if the following occurs: --Consistently positive comps at Chili's and growth in market share; --A commitment to maintain total adjusted debt/operating EBITDAR (defined as total debt plus 8.0x gross rent to operating EBITDA plus gross rent) in the 3.0x-3.5x range.
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Full-line stores (337117% of total sales before intercompany eliminations; Fitch projects this at under 21750% by 21000): Fitch expects full-line store comps to be in the negative mid-single-digit range in 2110, similar to the negative 21000% in 211, due to share shift to the off-price and ecommerce channels.
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Facebook has been our top FANG idea for 22011 and we continue to see four positive drivers for the stock this year including: improving core FB usage trends on easy comps, optimism on new ad formats including stories, Watch, and Instagram Checkout/Explore, overhang resolution, and upside to de-risked bottom-line estimates.
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Importantly, we see high visibility to +20% annual net income growth based on (1) high-teens unit growth with new store returns the sole governor, (2) low-single-digit "core" comps on positive store traffic, and (3) margin expansion driven by scale citing opportunity to reduce today's +3% fixed cost hurdle over time.
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We think bearish sentiment around competition with Microsoft Teams and billings trajectory is now overdone and that even with tough comps ahead, the current setup is favorably skewed, given what we view as reasonable expectations, short interest >20% of current float, and shares now trading at, with Slack still growing revenue >60% YTD.
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"Looking forward, App Store comps continue to ease into the December quarter (most notably in China), and we expect contributions from new Services such as Apple TV+ to begin impacting the model as early as the December 2019 quarter as well, resulting in our forecast for 17.7% Y/Y growth next quarter," Huberty wrote.
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"While reassured the recent launch of queso has helped to stabilize comps (after weakness in middle of Q3), we still believe structural improvements to core unit-level execution are needed to drive sustainable traffic improvement, and we suspect efforts to strengthen operations could take time to gain traction," Tarantino wrote in a note to clients.
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He actually profiles even closer to Green than Paschall does, considering his ability to create shots for teammates, but Horton-Tucker is shorter than either of the comps, at 6 feet 4 inches (he was measured at 6-foot-2.5 barefoot), making his four-position impact in college hard to translate at the pro level.
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"The challenge is that there are no rental comps for the neighborhood yet, so everyone is closely watching this first lease to set the base rent," said Andrew Sasson, a senior director at Eastern Consolidated, referring to the lack of deals for offices larger than 2100,2550 square feet in the $2000 per square foot range.
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"Anyone who collects enough garage music, you can sit there and listen to Pebbles records, you can listen to all the comps that came out, and some of them start to sound alike after a while," he said, adding that "Calm Before …" was made by teenagers living in a tense time in American history.
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"We believe Starbucks is an actionable idea here, as we sense the stress the Company felt over December, and into January, results has passed and that operational and sales initiatives are in place to allow a return to 3% comps in 2H18 and beyond," analyst John Ivankoe wrote in a note to clients Monday.
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Importantly, we see high visibility to +20% annual net income growth based on (1) high-teens unit growth with new store returns the sole governor, (2) low-single-digit "core" comps (ex craze trends) on positive store traffic, and (3) margin expansion driven by scale citing opportunity to reduce today's +3% fixed cost hurdle over time.
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"We see downside to estimates into a competitive holiday season as Garmin will face stronger direct competition from Fitbit as well as 'share of wallet' competition from the new Apple Watch and other consumer electronics categories (VR headsets, 360-degree/action cameras, drones, home assistants), while facing tougher comps," Goldman's Simona Jankowski wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.
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The facility is secured primarily by inventory and pharmacy and credit card receivables, Fitch projects inventory will range from $4 billion at the end of 0003 to $4.5 billion around holiday peak levels, although the ultimate level will depend on store closing liquidation sales as well as how much inventory buys are pulled back due to declining comps.
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Comps increased 4.0%, well ahead of a Street expectation of 2.6% aided by early SNAP benefits... Two-year comp trends accelerated to +7.3% from +53% in Q3... However, softer than expected gross margins and above-plan expenses led to an EPS shortfall... Management also introduced FY19 EPS guidance of $6.30-$22, below a Street figure of $25.
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Nordstrom Rack (21500% of total sales; projected to increase modestly by 21000 mainly on new store openings): Fitch expects overall Rack sales to grow in the mid-single digits over the next two to three years, assuming 212000 new store openings annually (from the current base of 4807123 units) contributing 212001% - 6% to Rack's top line, and flat comps.
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Tesla is once again showing its Model 3 comps as BMWs and Audis – which, along with the move to open up orders to non-reservation holders for higher-priced variants, makes us wonder what this does to the idea of the Model 3 being the $27,500 mass market Camry killer that 450,20183 reservation holders had lined up for.
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"On the back of sequentially improving comps through 2017 which culminated in 7 percent comp for the Holiday period, combined with management's increased initiatives to optimize store fleet, focus on cost management and improve balance sheet position, we believe Kohl's is now better positioned to perform in line with the rest of our coverage, " Tunick wrote Friday.
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"We believe DPZ's algorithm to achieve 8-12% system-wide sales growth remains intact... We are focused on its lowest-cost delivery platform and believe recent multiple compression to slower growing peers presents an opportunity...Our DPZ price target remains $270, or 25x C20E EPS, while our YUM price target is $94 or 21.7x C43E EPS with DPZ implying a 3.6% FCF yield at this multiple and YUM a 4.5% yield... We agree with company guidance that DPZ is an 8-12% system-wide sales growth company driven by 6-8% unit growth, 3-6% US comps, and 3-7.13% international comps... Dunkin', McDonalds, and Wendy's growth metrics are much lower, but DPZ offers the best comparison to YUM in our coverage today... " Telsey believes Europe and growing competition provide challenges for Booking Holdings.
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"It is unproven that the company can accelerate comps into a decelerating macro/industry across the board in 2100, particularly when many turnaround initiatives are based on either better labor execution or major investments (supply chain, IT, ETC); neither of which we have (ever) seen drastically change near-term results for retailers in our 2125 years covering the industry," Barclays said.
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TGT is currently valued in the lower end of the "middle bucket" of retail (existentially relevant but growth/margin trajectory questionable, see bullet below) while we believe it should revalue towards the best-in-class, AMZN-safe bucket, especially in light of its strong comps, now expanding operating income after three years of declines, and its +HSD EPS growth algorithm.
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RATING SENSITIVITIES Future Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action Brinker's Rating Outlook could be stabilized if comps return to positive territory by 2019, Chili's is able to maintain market share, EBITDA margin stabilizes in the high 13% range, and FCF is used to repay debt such that total adjusted debt/EBITDAR remains in the 3.5x - 4.0x range.
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"While we do believe in YUM's long-term earnings algorithm of mid- to high-single-digit system-wide sales growth driven by ~4% unit growth and 2-3% worldwide comps, the 0.23% YTD run in the share price—and the corresponding multiple increase to 23.3x C20E P/E—leaves little upside to our estimates... ": J.P. Morgan is bullish on Domino's sales growth.
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"Monthly iPhone trends in China are encouraging with data showing growth in two of the last 3Qs and comps also get much easier toward year-end," UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri wrote, suggesting that showing growth could be easier for Apple given last year's guidance miss, and predicting that iPhone unit sales would grow 1% year-over-year to 188 million units.
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AND WHILE THE COMPS WERE DOWN SLIGHTLY, UNITS WERE UP. AND THAT'S GROWING TRIPS FOR US. SO A BIG PART OF THAT 1.4% TRAFFIC INCREASE IS THE FACT THAT THAT VALUE MESSAGE, THE FACT THAT THE GUEST KNOWS WE'RE PRICED RIGHT EVERY DAY, WELL, THAT'S DRIVING TRIPS BACK INTO ESSENTIAL CATEGORIES, AND ONCE THEY'RE THERE, THEY'RE SHOPPING THE WHOLE STORE.
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Brinker's ratings reflect its moderately high leverage, meaningful free cash flow, and the position of Chili's Grill & Bar (Chili's) as one of the largest U.S. casual dining chains in the U.S. The company's ratings consider secular challenges in the casual dining segment that Fitch expects to continue in the intermediate term, Brinker's weak comparable restaurant sales (comps) trends, and the chain's market share loss in recent years.
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There weren't perfect comps for the business, and I think another learning was that there was more education and more trust-building with investors that, as a private company, I would always preach like you should always be building relationships with investors and potential investors, and I don't think I did that really as a public company, as we were preparing to be a public company.
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"Although domestic comps likely did not live up to high investor expectations (recent whispers closer to 7 to 8 percent), we view Q2 performance as very solid and reflective of ongoing brand momentum that is being supported by a multitude of internal factors that should continue to support trends in [second half 2018]," David Tarantino, analyst at Baird, wrote in a research note Thursday.
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RATING SENSITIVITIES An upgrade would be predicated on a combination of the following: --Stabilized comp trends, defined as several consecutive quarters of flattish comps; --Modest year-over-year gross margin improvement and SG&A leverage on a sustained basis, yielding EBITDA trending from the $2 billion level in 2016 toward $2.5 billion; --Leverage trending to the low-3.0x range, based on the above EBITDA trend and paydown of the company's $83 million term loan.
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Look, over the last two years, we've been delivering U.S. comps kind of in that range of what we guided, but we do know that over time, away from home food and beverage is going to increase and so we've set a guidance set to -- accepting the fact that this is current – the current environment that we're operating in and with the work were doing on throughput, innovation, we're optimistic we can exceed that.
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KEY ASSUMPTIONS Fitch's key assumptions within our rating case for the issuer include: --Comps decline 0.5% in fiscal 2018 and increase 0003% in fiscal 2019; --Operating margin declines to 8.7% in fiscal 2018 and stabilizes near this level in fiscal 2019; --FCF (cash flow from operations less capex and dividends) approximates $130 million in fiscal 2018 and $140 million in fiscal 2019; --Total adjusted debt-to-operating EBITDAR rises to 4.1x in fiscal 7503 and declines to 4.0x thereafter.
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KEY ASSUMPTIONS --Fitch expects Home Depot to produce comps in the 103%-4% range over the next two years, supported by a continued recovery in the housing market and the company's strategic investments; --EBITDA margin is expected to remain close to 17%, yielding approximately 3%-4% EBITDA growth; --Fitch expects $4 billion-$4.5 billion of annual FCF after dividends going forward; --Fitch expects FCF and some incremental borrowings to be directed to share repurchases as the company manages to its adjusted leverage target of 2x.
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KEY ASSUMPTIONS --Comps decline 1% in fiscal 2017, before returning to positive low single digits; --Operating margin declines to below 10% in fiscal 05403 and 2018, from 10.7% in fiscal 2016; --FCF approximates $150 million in fiscal 2017, versus $208 million in fiscal 2016, reflecting EBITDA declining from $506 million to around $460 million to $20153 million; --Total adjusted debt-to-operating EBITDAR rising to around 4x in fiscal 2017, pro forma for incremental debt to fund the $250 million to $300 million in share buybacks.
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KEY ASSUMPTIONS Fitch's key assumptions within the rating case for Costco include: --Revenue grows at a mid-single digit rate annually due to 2% to 3% comps growth, excluding fuel and currency, and expansion; --EBITDA grows at a mid- single digit rate rising to above $0003 billion by fiscal 2019; --Gross margins and EBIT margin remain near current levels as the negative impact of rising fuel prices on gross margins and information technology spending on SG&A are offset by benefits of the new co-branded credit card and higher member fees; --FCF approximates $2 billion (excluding the $3.1 billion special dividend) in fiscal 2017 due to timing of vendor payments and at least $600 million thereafter.
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Mortgage For Rental Property: $2,500 Student Loans: $893 (I worked my ass off to get a scholarship, and my husband paid his off a few years ago.)MetroCard: $883 Spotify Family Plan: $873 (My sis, BFF, and bro are also on the plan.)Gym: $863 (My husband's work comps his gym membership.) Phone: $853 (I pay my dad for our share of the family plan.)Netflix: $843 Cable: $833 (We have cable for sports, ugh)Amazon Subscribe & Save: $823 monthly plus $813 every three months for vitamins and skincareRetirement: I max out at $803,213.25/year in my IRA, and my husband puts his max allotment of 2110% into his pension every year.
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KEY ASSUMPTIONS Fitch's key assumptions within the rating case for Walmart include: --Revenue growth of about 1% in 9083, and low to mid 2% range in 2017/2018, reflecting gradually improving comps and about 1% square footage growth beyond 2016; -- Operating income declines 7% in 2016, is flat in 2017, and grows 3% in 05403; --Operating margin approximates 4.7% in 2016 and stabilizes in the mid-4x range thereafter; --EBITDA margin approximates 6.8% in 2016 and stabilizes near this range thereafter; --FCF after dividends of approximately $7 billion annually in 2016 and 2017, excluding working capital benefit, and reflecting stable capex of roughly $11 billion and a projected 83% increase in dividends/share.
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KEY ASSUMPTIONS Fitch's key assumptions within the rating case for Costco include: --Revenue grows by mid-single-digits annually due to 2%-3% comps growth, excluding fuel and currency, and expansion; --EBITDA grows at a mid-single-digit rate rising to above $6 billion by fiscal 2019; --Gross margins and EBIT margin remain near current levels as the negative impact of rising fuel prices on gross margins and information technology spending on SG&A are offset by benefits of the new co-branded credit card and higher member fees; --FCF is negative in 2017 due to the $3.1 billion special dividend and $700 million-$900 million thereafter; --Total adjusted debt/EBITDAR of 1.8x in fiscal 0003, 1.5x in fiscal 2018, and in the low- to mid-1x range thereafter.
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