The improbability of his victory is leading to its overestimation.
|
|
The USDA called this number a "serious overestimation" in a statement.
|
|
His sloppiness and comprehensive overestimation of his abilities make him a tactical liability.
|
|
It can lead to fatalism or overestimation of risk for children experiencing similar problems.
|
|
The Mio Fuse ranged from an underestimation of 22.5 beats per minute to an overestimation of 26 beats per minute, for example, while the Fitbit Charge range from an underestimation of 41 beats per minute to an overestimation of 36 beats per minute.
|
|
But Goldman believes this an overestimation and so the firm has created a new model.
|
|
The average underestimation of profits was 4.02 percent, while the average overestimation was 2.74 percent.
|
|
There was an overestimation of how many voters with college degrees actually live in the state.
|
|
"I think it was an overestimation that the Obama coalition was transferable to Clinton," he said.
|
|
His hubris would be tragic if his overestimation of his own abilities were not so farcical.
|
|
The bottom line is, national optimism translates into unachievable end-states and overestimation of military capabilities.
|
|
A simple overestimation like this illustrates how difficult it can be to see the world from another's perspective.
|
|
"My biggest overestimation was that we would reach at least the next round by dominating games," Löw said.
|
|
"There's an overestimation of Amazon's potential to 'crush' competitors," said Charles Hill, a business professor at the University of Washington.
|
|
However, that number may be an overestimation if Trump did not account for hotel expenses on her part, according to Forbes.
|
|
As Mr. Williams sees it, the insurance exploits a cognitive bias, or consumers' overestimation of their risk of a catastrophic illness.
|
|
Critically, this is more than just a series of misjudgments or even a reflexive overestimation of the utility of military force.
|
|
The range for this tracker ranged from an underestimation of 5.1 beats per minute to an overestimation of 4.5 beats per minute.
|
|
The public's overestimation of its own intelligence when it comes to complex topics speaks to the evil genius of a climate debate.
|
|
And second, crowding can make them look brighter and thus closer than they are, potentially leading to overestimation of the Hubble constant.
|
|
Plus, the overestimation or underestimation only happened when the neurons were being manipulated, so it wasn't because the mice were learning to adjust.
|
|
What will not change, whether Labour or the Conservatives are in Downing Street, is the government's overestimation of Britain's clout in the world.
|
|
The result is a significant underestimation of the backlash against newly arriving immigrants and an overestimation of the support for immigration among the public.
|
|
The difference could stem from an overestimation of how dense our corner of the universe is relative to the average cosmic density of matter.
|
|
It's possible that the authors saw a link that wasn't there for certain kids, which could also have led to overestimation, the study said.
|
|
This terror, Fritzsche contends, stood behind Charles Lindbergh's overestimation of the German bomber fleet and his conclusion that courting war with Germany made no sense.
|
|
The ongoing overestimation of its national team is one of the last vestiges of England's once-mighty empire, a hangover of perceived superiority and hubris.
|
|
This was the trade's biggest overestimation of monthly NOPA crush since September 2014, and the third month in a row of bearish crush numbers against expectations.
|
|
This is likely an overestimation of Russia's influence, given that Assad wishes to remain in power, which is a key sticking point to any conflict resolution.
|
|
But consumption growth has slowed since 2011 amid what some experts said was a substantial overestimation on how many people could pony up for consumer products.
|
|
Most glaring is the pipedream that we've trained up Afghan and Iraqi troops to the necessary standards, an overestimation borne out by their performance in the field.
|
|
"This shows that extreme beliefs stem from overestimation of knowledge," said the lead author, Philip M. Fernbach, an assistant professor of marketing at the University of Colorado.
|
|
That overestimation was most likely a result of something called affective forecasting, said Jamie Gruman, a professor and senior research fellow at the University of Guelph in Canada.
|
|
A former government adviser warned earlier this month that growth in recent years may have been "a significant overestimation" because of a change in the way it was calculated.
|
|
Twitter, which by many metrics is actually a smaller platform than Reddit, has found its niche among politicos and the media, which leads to an overestimation of its influence.
|
|
"Other surveys fail to differentiate between regular and occasional use or experimentation, which results in overestimation of the prevalence of use and underestimation of their efficacy in smoking substitution."
|
|
Cramer said the overestimation from the analysts stems, largely, from two factors: too much trust in management and an incomplete grasp of consumer behavior in the food delivery category.
|
|
The widest range of difference at rest was for the Basis Peak, which ranged from an underestimation of 17.1 beats per minute to an overestimation of 22.6 beats per minute.
|
|
A former government adviser warned earlier this month that growth in recent years may have been "a significant overestimation" because of a change in the way it was calculated. 5.
|
|
A change in the method used to calculate India's GDP led to "a significant overestimation of growth," Subramanian writes in a research paper published by Harvard's Center for International Development.
|
|
The Fed's projection for the natural rate was also lowered to reflect the improvement, but its overestimation throughout the recovery reveals its excessive gloom all along about US economic potential.
|
|
"Every new administration comes in with an overestimation of what it can accomplish and how quickly it can accomplish it," said Kevin Ewing, a partner at Bracewell, a Washington law firm.
|
|
"Many polls — especially at the state level — did not adjust their weights to correct for the overrepresentation of college graduates in their surveys, and the result was overestimation of support for Clinton."
|
|
Similarly, if the bias against immigrants is high (or if the perceived share of free-loaders is high), even a small overestimation of the share of immigrants can reduce support for redistribution.
|
|
Munger went on to explain that he prefers to hire people who don't often overestimate their own abilities, because overestimation can lead to big results, but it often creates more risk than reward.
|
|
Cleveland officials won't guess how many protestors the convention will turn out, but the city of Tampa, Florida, expected 15,000 protestors at the 2012 RNC, which turned out to be a great overestimation.
|
|
Mr. Fuleihan said the city's current $82.1 billion budget included some overestimation in order to dampen the blow of unanticipated events that have, in recent years, had huge effects on the budget: the Sept.
|
|
His overestimation of his criminal competence is the reason he spends most of the film on the run from the cops, trying to salvage a plan that didn't seem all that feasible to begin with.
|
|
One limitation of the study is that it was based on information from the U.S. Census Bureau, which might undercount people 65 and older, resulting in an overestimation of death rates, the study authors note.
|
|
However, the overestimation for the 2015 harvest was by far the most extreme of the past 21 years as the January 2016 annual crop production summary lopped off 2.8 percent of soybean acres from the June report.
|
|
We – including usually hard-nosed scientists – want so badly for there to be LGM, we've been grossly overestimating the values of Drake's factors, resulting in a flagrant overestimation of the number of civilizations that should exist out there.
|
|
On Clinton's part, the accusation reflects a remarkable overestimation of Russian influence on the part of certain Democratic Party loyalists — and a corresponding willingness to fling around baseless allegations of people they don't like being aligned with the Kremlin agents.
|
|
As some of the critics of Lütke's letter on Twitter have suggested, this is both a gross overestimation of the role of a commerce platform, and a significant underestimation of the responsibility of a private business to its clients and customers.
|
|
There were notable gaps in diet-related data from poorer nations and some of the deaths, the authors noted, could have been attributed to more than one dietary factor, leading to an overestimation of the burden of diseases attributable to diet.
|
|
In the case of Keryx, we purchased our initial position at an average price of $14.50 per share based on what turned out to be an overestimation of initial prescriptions for Auryxia, the company's approved drug to control phosphorous levels in dialysis patients.
|
|
However, it's becoming increasingly clear that even the cynical version of Donald Trump as a businessman — undisciplined self-promoter who bought and sold things just to convince himself he wasn't a useless nothingburger living off his rich dad's money — was maybe an overestimation.
|
|
When we refine the model further by explicitly modeling men and women, both single and in couples, the overestimation of participation in the middle years of the working life cycle is small, and results for hours worked and earnings closely match the actual data.
|
|
Researchers typically estimate the total visible mass of the Milky Way by extrapolating outward from the midplane density; if there's a pinching effect, then this extrapolation leads to an overestimation of the visible mass, making it seem as if the mass matches up to the stars' motions.
|
|
DOUTHAT: Perhaps, but it seems its own sort of complacency to assume that we couldn't ever have a an 18th Brumaire-style coup … and also like an overestimation of the Trumpian varietal if its "economical" voter suppression can't even manage to hold a safe-as-houses Senate seat in Alabama.
|
|
The failure of the media and big data polling over the last 18 months to adequately capture the mood of the electorate led to an overestimation among democrats, and many republicans, of Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonLewandowski on potential NH Senate run: If I run, 'I'm going to win' Fighter pilot vs.
|
|
The Food and Drug Administration says it's found mistakes in opioid sales data provided by industry researcher Iqvia that led to an overestimation of the amount of prescription fentanyl being used in the U.S. The FDA used that data to make recommendations for quotas to the Drug Enforcement Administration, the agency said Wednesday.
|
|
The absurdity of trash talk, the aspiring tough guy's disconnect between talk and action, the weird discomfort over the homoeroticism of combat sports, and the gleeful overestimation of abilities that comes with being an overeager white belt or YouTube warrior are all attacked with an accuracy that would put a world-class striker to shame.
|
|
Then, in the 2003 finale of "The Life of Mammals," during a spry cavort across the ruins of the ancient Mayan capital, Tikal, he suggested that the city, which rivalled Rome in scale and was the seat of one of Mesoamerica's most flourishing kingdoms, might have been decimated by its own inhabitants' overestimation of natural resources.
|
|
One of the big things I try and get people to cough out more download numbers, and so I know that's probably going to be an overestimation or something of a lie, but you just want to qualify that and kind of, "This is why blah, blah, blah," and then you just figure out maybe it's 210 percent, 220 percent if you're lucky about that.
|
|
Company corrects its own statement.) April 1 (Reuters) - Athos Venture Capital SA (formerly Centrum Doradztwa Ekonomicznego SA) : * Says it sold shares of company active in electronics business, Sunex SA for about 4.5 million zlotys ($1.21 million) * Informs that despite receiving about 0.4 mln zloty profit from the sale, this transaction had a negative impact on the company's assets overall due to the overestimation of the sold assets Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage: $1 = 3.7123 zlotys
|
|
In 1989, Voyager 2 determined the irregularities to be due to an overestimation of Neptune's mass.
|
|
The greater the amplitude (or duration) of a saccade, the more severe the resulting overestimation. The further the student in the above example's eyes must travel in order to reach the clock, the more dramatic his perception of chronostasis. This connection supports the assertion that overestimation occurs in order to fill in the length of time omitted by saccadic masking. This would mean that, if the saccade lasted for a longer period of time, there would be more time that needed to be filled in with overestimation.
|
|
The creators state that their "models err on the side of overestimation, not underestimation". The site is updated daily with the latest data on cases and countermeasures.
|
|
The phrase "terminal vagueness" describes a characteristic of compulsive debtors, a systematic avoidance of monitoring finances–including avoiding communication with creditors–leading to an overestimation or underestimation of account balances. An overestimation may result in incurring unsecured debt. "Clarity" is the opposite of vagueness, requiring a clear picture of how much money one has and owes, at any given time. DA encourages "awareness" of the cultural pervasiveness of debt and overspending.
|
|
Delays in systems cause people to perceive a response to an action incorrectly. This causes an under- or overestimation of the needed action and results in oscillation, instability or even breakdown.
|
|
The modelling starts with a conservative approach (e.g. consumers do not wash and/or cook the products) which may result in an overestimation of the actual toxicity of the respective pesticide.
|
|
Pityeja is a Neotropical moth genus in the family Geometridae erected by Francis Walker in 1861. Pityeja have relatively conspicuous wing patterns, which probably led to overestimation of their species richness in the past.
|
|
Therefore, inattention lead to an overestimation of perception sensitivity. This study suggests attention bias, a mechanism of wishful thinking, does not only rely on what individuals fixate upon, but the unattended stimuli as well.
|
|
This provided support for a failure in perspective-taking on the side of the tappers, and an overestimation of the extent to which others would share in "hearing" the song as it was tapped.
|
|
Phrygionis is a neotropical moth genus in the family Geometridae. Phrygionis have relatively conspicuous wing patterns, which probably led to overestimation of their species richness in the past. In most species, the forewing measures in length.
|
|
He goes on to suggest that the line might in fact have been in profit due to overestimation of the costs of the permanent way and failure to consider converting the line to single-track working.
|
|
According to Schofield (2006), the longstanding use of c' in practice has led many engineers to wrongly believe that c' is a fundamental parameter. This assumption that c ' and \phi ' are constant can lead to overestimation of peak strengths.
|
|
Since then only a dozen cases have been reported and the traditional 2–3% ratio, attributed to Wood, is possibly an overestimation not clearly corroborated by recent research. German anatomist Robert Wiedersheim included it in his list of 86 vestigial organs.
|
|
The Deuxième Bureau was celebrated for its cryptanalytical work, but it was criticized for its involvement in the Dreyfus Affair and its consistent overestimation of German military formations prior to World War II. Its final director was Colonel Louis Rivet.
|
|
Jürgen von Beckerath, Handbuch der ägyptischen Königsnamen. Münchner ägyptologische Studien (in German). 49. Mainz: Philip von Zabern. . Concerning the Eighth Dynasty, it is now widely agreed that Manetho's estimate for its duration is a very substantial overestimation of the reality.
|
|
Their task was to secure the city by the evening of 18 September; but due to logistical difficulties and the overestimation of the Polish defences, the operation was revised with the aim of securing the city by the morning of 19 September.
|
|
Perceived control relates to an individual's thoughts about control over situations and events. Perceived control should be differentiated from actual control because an individual's beliefs about their abilities may not reflect their actual abilities. Therefore, overestimation or underestimation of perceived control can lead to anxiety and aggression.
|
|
Greenpeace and the Cascadia Wildlands Project pointed out in 2008 that data the Forest Service was using were known to be prone to cause overestimation of the carrying capacity for deer,Caouette, J.; Kramer, M.; Nowacki, G. 2000. Deconstructing the Tongass Timber Paradigm. USDA Forest Service. the wolves' primary prey.
|
|
Australian Transport Safety Bureau. Pilots too often confidently proceed with a visual approach instead of relying on instruments during nighttime landings. As a result, this can lead to the pilot experiencing glide path overestimation (GPO) because of the lack of peripheral visual cues, especially, below the aircraft.Gibb, R. W. (2007).
|
|
For instance, the results from the Framingham Heart Study have led to biased outcomes of predicting the risk of cardiovascular disease. This is because the sample was tested only on white people and when applied to the non-white population, the results were biased with overestimation and underestimation risks of cardiovascular disease.
|
|
275 Pope Benedict suggest there were those in Corinth "...fascinated by his way of speaking...." There is no indication that Apollos favored or approved an overestimation of his person. Paul urged him to go to Corinth at the time, but Apollos refused, stating that he would come later when he had an opportunity.
|
|
3–265 to 3–266. Also, a conversion factor, known as the "deer multiplier" (used in calculating carrying capacity) was incorrectly applied, causing — by itself – a 30% overestimation of carrying capacity and corresponding underestimation of impacts."Suit Filed to Stop Four Timber Sales on Largest National Forest" – Sit News. Sitnews.us (2008-07-11).
|
|
The overestimation of one's traits and abilities is argued to be a spillover of positive affect from the self to objects associated with the self.Farnham, D. S., Greenwald, G. A., & Banaji, M. N. (1999) Implicit self-esteem. In D. Abrams & M. Hogg(Eds.), Social identity and social cognition (pp. 230-248). Oxford, UK: Blackwell.
|
|
However, these methods are questionable. Indeed, when filling out questionnaires with questions about a long period, people often tend to underestimate the frequency of their nightmares because of forgetting. On the contrary, filling out a diary every day may lead to an overestimation of the numbers of nightmares, because of the focusing on this phenomenon.
|
|
In addition there are some issues which are related to Virtual Reality that can arise from its use such as Social Isolation where the users can become detached from real-world social connections and the overestimation of a person's abilities where users - especially the young \- often fail to distinguish between their feats in real life and Virtual Reality.
|
|
In Faces in the Clouds, anthropologist Stewart Guthrie proposes that all religions are anthropomorphisms that originate in the brain's tendency to detect the presence or vestiges of other humans in natural phenomena. There are also scholars who argue that anthropomorphism is the overestimation of the similarity of humans and nonhumans, therefore, it could not yield accurate accounts.
|
|
To achieve the highest-quality recordings for any recording potential, good patient relaxation is generally necessary. However, many recordings can be filled and contaminated with myogenic and movement artifacts. Patient restlessness and movement will contribute to threshold overestimation and inaccurate test results. In most cases, an adult is usually more than capable to provide a good extratympanic recording.
|
|
Regulatory decisions are based on mixture toxicity models that assume additivity, which can result in under or overestimation of toxic effects. Refining our understanding of mixture interactions can lead to better informed environmental management and decision making. In addition, exploring mixture interactions can elucidate the mechanisms of action for specific toxicants which, in many cases, are poorly understood.
|
|
For his St Patrick's Day address, de Valera claimed that Ireland was under blockade from both sides and that neutrality protected Ireland from "the hazards of imperial adventure". Aiken's visit was disastrous.Girvin pp.208 ff His anti-British views and, in American eyes, overestimation of Ireland's military capabilities went across all the administration's policies towards the war.
|
|
Self control plays a valuable role in the functioning of self in people. The illusion of control involves the overestimation of an individual's ability to control certain events. It occurs when someone feels a sense of control over outcomes although they may not possess this control. Psychologists have consistently emphasized the importance of perceptions of control over life events.
|
|
Stark splitting in hydrogen. Energy eigenvalues of Stark shifts are shown here as a function of electric field strength. Radiation trapping in an atomic line filter may seriously affect the performance and therefore tuning of an ALF. In the original studies of atomic line filters in the 1970s and early 1980s, there was a "large overestimation of the [signal bandwidth]".
|
|
Overprecision is the excessive confidence that one knows the truth. For reviews, see Harvey (1997) or Hoffrage (2004). Much of the evidence for overprecision comes from studies in which participants are asked about their confidence that individual items are correct. This paradigm, while useful, cannot distinguish overestimation from overprecision; they are one and the same in these item-confidence judgments.
|
|
As of 2006, these uncertainties were considered too great to allow conclusion on whether the tree ring record diverges from other proxies during this period. In more recent studies evidence suggested that the divergence is caused by human activities, and so confined to the recent past, but use of affected proxies can lead to overestimation of past temperatures, understating the current warming trend.
|
|
A common finding from studies of these tasks is that people anchor on the small component probabilities and so underestimate the total. A corresponding effect happens when people estimate the probability of multiple events happening in sequence, such as an accumulator bet in horse racing. For this kind of judgment, anchoring on the individual probabilities results in an overestimation of the combined probability.
|
|
If true, then the straightness of the parallel lines yields to that of the radiating lines, implying that there is a hierarchical ordering among components of such illusion. Others have suggested that angle overestimation results from lateral inhibition in visual cortex,Blakemore et al., 1970 while others have postulated a bias inherent in extrapolating 3D angle information from 2D projections.Nundy et al.
|
|
However, later work has shown that since h-index is a cumulative measure, it contains intrinsic auto- correlation that led to significant overestimation of its predictability. Thus, the true predictability of future h-index is much lower compared to what has been claimed before. The h-index can be timed to analyze its evolution during one's career, employing different time windows.
|
|
As well as being dissatisfied with their body sizes, exposure to idealized images of thin bodies is associated with overestimation of one's own body size. Recent research suggests that this exposure to images of thin bodies may cause a recalibration of the visual perceptual mechanisms that represent body size in the brain, such that the observer sees subsequently-viewed bodies, including their own bodies, as heavier than they really are, a process known as "visual adaptation". There is evidence that individuals who are less satisfied with their bodies may spend a disproportionate amount of time directing their visual attention towards unusually thin bodies, resulting in an even greater overestimation of the size of subsequently-viewed bodies. Further evidence suggests that a similar mechanism may be at play in people (particularly young men) who underestimate their muscularity, such as those suffering from muscle dysmorphia.
|
|
In the 19th century, Thomas John Newbold, an English soldier working for the East India Company, estimated the population of Kuala Terengganu to be around 15,000 to 20,000 Malays with 600 Chinese, but it was presumably an overestimation. There were few brick buildings in the town. The principal brick buildings were a mosque and a custom house. Most of the houses were made of wood and thatch.
|
|
A clinical prediction rule or clinical probability assessment is a type of algorithm to that includes a combination of medical sign, symptoms, and other findings in predicting the probability of a specific disease or outcome. Physicians have difficulty in estimated risks of diseases; frequently erring towards overestimation, perhaps due to cognitive biases such as base rate fallacy in which the risk of an adverse outcome is exaggerated.
|
|
Independent of this, authorities may impose taxes on the purchase or use of vehicles. Because of poor forecasting and overestimation of passenger numbers by planners, there is frequently a benefits shortfall for transport infrastructure projects.Bent Flyvbjerg, Mette K. Skamris Holm, and Søren L. Buhl, "How (In)Accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects", Journal of the American Planning Association 71:2, pp. 131–46.
|
|
The plans had been predicated on the idea that each nuclear device required 50 kg rather than 6 kg of plutonium. None of those involved in the project realized that this was, in fact, an overestimation. Although the program was scaled to produce 5-10 weapons per year, given the estimated production of 1 kg of Pu-239 per day, it was actually scaled to produce sixty.
|
|
For two days, the army marched past Clive's camp to take up a position east of Calcutta. Sir Eyre Coote, serving in the British forces, estimated the enemy's strength as 40,000 cavalry, 60,000 infantry and thirty cannon. Even allowing for overestimation this was considerably more than Clive's force of approximately 540 British infantry, 600 Royal Navy sailors, 800 local sepoys, fourteen field guns and no cavalry.
|
|
Properties of stimuli themselves have shown to have significant effects on the occurrence of chronostasis. In particular, the frequency and pattern of stimuli affect the observer's perception of chronostasis. In regard to frequency, the occurrence of many, similar events can exaggerate duration overestimation and makes the effects of chronostasis more severe. In regard to repetition, repetitive stimuli appear to be of shorter subjective duration than novel stimuli.
|
|
The occurrence of chronostasis extends beyond the visual domain into the auditory and tactile domains. In the auditory domain, chronostasis and duration overestimation occur when observing auditory stimuli. One common example is a frequent occurrence when making telephone calls. If, while listening to the phone's ring tone, research subjects move the phone from one ear to the other, the length of time between rings appears longer.
|
|
New infrastructure projects can have high cost, and are often financed through debt. Many infrastructure owners therefore impose usage fees, such as landing fees at airports, or toll plazas on roads. Independent of this, authorities may impose taxes on the purchase or use of vehicles. Because of poor forecasting and overestimation of passenger numbers by planners, there is frequently a benefits shortfall for transport infrastructure projects.
|
|
Tadeusz Piotrowski Poland's Holocaust: Ethnic Strife, Collaboration with Occupying Forces and Genocide in the Second Republic, 1918-1947 McFarland & Company, 1997 page 294 Based on the analysis by Tadeusz Piotrowski roughly 1.0 million Ukrainians and Belarusians and 400,000 Polish speaking Jews were misclassified as Poles in the official figures for the 1939 population.Tadeusz Piotrowski Poland's Holocaust: Ethnic Strife, Collaboration with Occupying Forces and Genocide in the Second Republic, 1918-1947 McFarland & Company, 1997 page 305 Polish demographer Piotr Eberhardt maintains that it is commonly agreed that the criterion of declared language to classify ethnic groups led to an overestimation of the number of Poles in pre-war Poland. He notes that in general, the numbers declaring a particular language do not mesh with the numbers declaring the corresponding nationality. Members of ethnic minority groups believe that the language criterion led to an overestimation of Poles.
|
|
After making a series of item-confidence judgments, if people try to estimate the number of items they got right, they do not tend to systematically overestimate their scores. The average of their item-confidence judgments exceeds the count of items they claim to have gotten right. One possible explanation for this is that item-confidence judgments were inflated by overprecision, and that their judgments do not demonstrate systematic overestimation.
|
|
At the trial displacement figure of , even would be enough; the 210,000 figure was derived from a 12.5% overestimation to account for a fouled bottom or bad weather. A similar power plant to the one used in the Iowa class (generating ) would be enough, and if the third turret was removed there would be no problems with weight, but there was not enough space within the North Carolinas.
|
|
Schizophrenia is a mental disorder characterized by delusions, hallucinations, disorganized speech and behavior. Individuals suffering from schizophrenia have a varied perception of time compared to neurotypicals; also are less precise in judging the temporal order of events. Time perception impairment in schizophrenia was originally described by clinicians and later addressed in laboratory. Past work on schizophrenics indicated a great impairment in time sensitivity and perception leading to overestimation of time intervals.
|
|
Fluid–structure interactions also play a major role in appropriate modeling of blood flow. Blood vessels act as compliant tubes that change size dynamically when there are changes to blood pressure and velocity of flow. Failure to take into account this property of blood vessels can lead to a significant overestimation of resulting wall shear stress (WSS). This effect is especially imperative to take into account when analyzing aneurysms.
|
|
Loss of contrast results in overestimation, and magnification effects account for underestimation at short range. Divers can to a large extent adapt to these effects over time and with practice. Light rays bend when they travel from one medium to another; the amount of bending is determined by the refractive indices of the two media. If one medium has a particular curved shape, it functions as a lens.
|
|
Flight 1851 Memorial The altimeters found at the crash site had an exhibited pressure of 1028 and 1026 hPa, and their height read . The overestimation of pressure by 9 hPa led to an overestimation of readings by , but taking into account the distance to the summit and the height of trees growing on the mountain, it was concluded that this difference did not contribute to the accident. The official investigation determined that during approach to Santa Maria Airport, the air traffic controller instructed the crew to descend to for an ILS approach to runway 19. During that transmission, a trainee controller had also transmitted an incorrect QNH (barometric altimeter setting) that was 9 hPa too high. The approach instructions were not fully heard since the pilot had re-keyed his microphone to acknowledge the new QNH, and likely did not hear the second repeat of the 3,000 ft safe altitude, declaring: "We’re re-cleared to 2,000 feet..." (610 m).
|
|
Valence effects, which is also considered a form of cognitive bias, have several real-world implications. For instance, it can lead to the overestimation of a company's future earnings by investors and this could contribute to a tendency for it to becoming overpriced. In terms of achieving organizational objectives, it could encourage people to produce unrealistic schedules helping drive a so-called planning fallacy, which often result in making poor decisions and project abandonment.
|
|
All three segments (V, D, J) are involved in the formation of the heavy chain, while only V and J recombination products encode for the light chain. The recombination between these regions allows the formation of 1012–1018 potential different sequences. However, this number is an overestimation, since many factors contribute to limit the diversity of the B cell repertoire, first of all the actual number of B cell in the organism.
|
|
The book was met with criticism on multiple fronts. Historian Richard S. Levy in Commentary wrote that "He relies on outmoded secondary works, makes numerous errors, and distorts his subject" and "Black’s neglect of the secondary scholarly literature is perverse and leads him to his most serious error of judgment—drastic overestimation of the political and economic efficacy of the boycott weapon", and described the book as "conspiracy-mongering, innuendo, and sensationalism".
|
|
The IDMS method would result in a comparative overestimation of the corresponding calculated GFR in some patients with normal renal function. A few medicines are dosed even in normal renal function on that derived GFR. The dose, unless further modified, could now be higher than desired, potentially causing increased drug-related toxicity. To counter the effect of changing to IDMS, new FDA guidelines have suggested limiting doses to specified maxima with carboplatin, a chemotherapy drug.
|
|
This technique requires placing an ultrasound probe on the central cornea. While this is a convenient way to determine the axial length for most normal eyes, errors in measurement almost invariably result from the probe indenting the cornea and shallowing the anterior chamber. Since the compression error is variable, it cannot be compensated for by a constant. IOL power calculations using these measurements will lead to an overestimation of the IOL power.
|
|
In one related study where participants from 35 countries were questioned about their country's contribution to world history and provided a percentage estimation from 0% to 100%, evidence for collective narcissism was found as many countries gave responses exaggerating their country's contribution. In another study where American's from the 50 states were asked similar questions regarding their state's contribution to the history of the United States, patterns of overestimation and collective narcissism were also found.
|
|
The causes and motivations for egocentric bias were investigated in a 1983 journal entry by Brian Mullen of Murray State University. Inspired by the study by Ross et al. demonstrating the false consensus effect, Mullen's paper focused on the overestimation of consensus. Mullen analyzed the NBC television show "Play the Percentages" to determine whether egocentric bias was rooted in a perceptual and unintentional distortion of reality versus a conscious, intentional motivation to appear normalized.
|
|
However, when replicating the findings Msetfi et al. (2005, 2007) found that the overestimation of control in nondepressed people only showed up when the interval was long enough, implying that this is because they take more aspects of a situation into account than their depressed counterparts. Also, Dykman et al. (1989) showed that depressed people believe they have no control in situations where they actually do, so their perception is not more accurate overall.
|
|
Even well-meaning corporations may systematically overestimate the yield of an ecosystem. In the case of multiple corporations bidding for land rights, an economic phenomenon known as the winner's curse causes the winning party to systematically overestimate the economic value of the land. Typically the economic value comes mostly from the ecological yield, in which case the corporation will overestimate that as well. Another form of overestimation may come from generalizing data from other ecosystems.
|
|
He had been reinforced by Robert of Artois with another 800 and an unknown number of Bretons of unknown quality. He would have had to leave some behind to contain the Morlaix garrison so almost certainly his numbers would have been less than the French but all the figures are all from English sources and thus, for the French, probably an overestimation (the larger the force you defeat the greater the glory).
|
|
Chronostasis (from Greek χρόνος, chrónos, "time" and στάσις, stásis, "standing") is a type of temporal illusion in which the first impression following the introduction of a new event or task-demand to the brain can appear to be extended in time. For example, chronostasis temporarily occurs when fixating on a target stimulus, immediately following a saccade (i.e., quick eye movement). This elicits an overestimation in the temporal duration for which that target stimulus (i.e.
|
|
Moreover, transposition activity increases the TE copy number and generates chromosomal rearrangement hotspots. HTT detection is a difficult task because it is an ongoing phenomenon that is constantly changing in frequency of occurrence and composition of TEs inside host genomes. Furthermore, few species have been analyzed for HTT, making it difficult to establish patterns of HTT events between species. These issues can lead to the underestimation or overestimation of HTT events between ancestral and current eukaryotic species.
|
|
Early in the regime's existence, harsh measures were meted out to political opponents and those who resisted Nazi doctrine (e.g., the Communists), a role the SA performed until the SD and Gestapo undermined their influence and took control of security in the Reich. Because the Gestapo seemed omniscient and omnipotent, the atmosphere of fear they created led to an overestimation of their reach and strength; a faulty assessment which hampered the operational effectiveness of underground resistance organisations.
|
|
An auscultatory gap is a period of diminished or absent Korotkoff sounds during the manual measurement of blood pressure. The improper interpretation of this gap may lead to blood pressure monitoring errors: namely, an underestimation of systolic blood pressure and/or an overestimation of diastolic blood pressure. In order to correct for an auscultatory gap the radial pulse should be monitored by palpation. It is therefore recommended to palpate and auscultate when manually recording a patient's blood pressure.
|
|
Turbo inversion recovery magnitude (TIRM) measures only the magnitude of a turbo spin echo after a preceding inversion pulse, thus is phase insensitive. TIRM is superior in the assessment of osteomyelitis and in suspected head and neck cancer. Osteomyelitis appears as high intensity areas. In head and neck cancers, TIRM has been found to both give high signal in tumor mass, as well as low degree of overestimation of tumor size by reactive inflammatory changes in the surrounding tissues.
|
|
When water retention curves are fitted with non-linear least squares, structural overestimation or underestimation can occur. In these cases, the representation of water retention curves can be improved in terms of accuracy and uncertainty by applying Gaussian Process regression to the residuals that are obtained after non-linear least-squares. This is mostly due to the correlation between the datapoints, which is accounted for with Gaussian Process regression through the kernel function. Yousef, B. (June, 2019).
|
|
J. 74:492–499. Concerns have also been raised that applying the BCSR methods to low CEC soils could lead to mineral deficiency because there are no minimum levels defined as meq/100g of soil. Hence, in very low CEC soils the amount of a certain element—though in correct proportion to others—may be too low for the needs of the crop. Another concern is that applications of CaCO3 and CaSO4 can lead to an overestimation of CEC.
|
|
To what degree Limburgish actually is spoken in Germany today remains a matter of debate. Depending on the city in these parts of Germany, 50% to 90% of the population speak a local or regional form of Meuse-Rhenish, which is either Limburgish or Bergish, according to A. Schunck 2001. However, this percentage seems to be a clear overestimation, as far as the German situation is concerned. The same holds true for his estimation of the Belgian situation.
|
|
One theory that may explain the effectiveness of this method is that by not voluntarily making oneself go to sleep, it relieves the performance anxiety that arises from the need or requirement to fall asleep, which is meant to be a passive act. This technique has been shown to reduce sleep effort and performance anxiety and also lower subjective assessment of sleep-onset latency and overestimation of the sleep deficit (a quality found in many insomniacs).
|
|
A method that avoids making the variational overestimation of HF in the first place is Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC), in its variational, diffusion, and Green's function forms. These methods work with an explicitly correlated wave function and evaluate integrals numerically using a Monte Carlo integration. Such calculations can be very time-consuming. The accuracy of QMC depends strongly on the initial guess of many-body wave-functions and the form of the many-body wave-function.
|
|
This elicits an overestimation in the temporal duration for which that target stimulus (i.e., postsaccadic stimulus) was perceived. This effect can extend apparent durations by up to 500 ms and is consistent with the idea that the visual system models events prior to perception. The most well-known version of this illusion is known as the stopped-clock illusion, wherein a subject's first impression of the second-hand movement of an analog clock, subsequent to one's directed attention (i.e.
|
|
Chen Shou, who wrote Ma Chao's biography in the Sanguozhi, commented on the latter as such: "Ma Chao's arrogance and overestimation of his ability caused the extermination of his entire clan. What a great pity! If he had been content with what he possessed, would he not have saved himself from disaster?"(馬超阻戎負勇，以覆其族，惜哉！能因窮致泰，不猶愈乎！) Sanguozhi vol. 36.
|
|
People generally avoid tasks where self- efficacy is low, but undertake tasks where self-efficacy is high. When self- efficacy is significantly beyond actual ability, it leads to an overestimation of the ability to complete tasks. On the other hand, when self-efficacy is significantly lower than actual ability, it discourages growth and skill development. Research shows that the optimum level of self-efficacy is slightly above ability; in this situation, people are most encouraged to tackle challenging tasks and gain experience.
|
|
A graduate in philosophy and Czech from Charles University, Prague, from 1970 to 2010s he lived in Italy, where he was Professor of Political Sociology at the University of Trieste. He is said to be a successor of Jan Patočka[by whom?]. He is a representative of biocentrism, which he developed to refusing anthropocentric overestimation of symbol and culture. He also thinks we need to step back from "us" to be able to lay foundations of new and freer society.
|
|
Overestimation happens because analytic resources are a combination of external locus of control, personal experience and belief fallacies. Chronically worried individuals are also more likely to lack confidence in their problem solving ability, perceive problems as threats, become easily frustrated when dealing with a problem, and are pessimistic about the outcome of problem-solving efforts. Seriously anxious people find it difficult to control their worry and typically experience symptoms like restlessness, fatigue, difficulty in concentrating, irritability, muscle tension and sleep disturbance.
|
|
Redundancy of the cDNA clones presented a challenge, requiring clustering strategies and referral to the MGI validation set to identify unique clones. The RIKEN set of clones was eventually reduced to 15,295 genes, although this was cautiously considered an overestimation. Overview of the RIKEN definition Central to the curation efforts was the creation of the RIKEN definition. This provided a hierarchical and systematic means to assign functions to the clones based upon known genes, placing priority on previously established or well-curated knowledge.
|
|
Instead of joining the fire on the much closer cruisers, Prinzregent Luitpold engaged the leading battleships of the British line, firing a total of 21 salvos. The gunners reported ranges of , though this was an overestimation that caused the ship's salvos to fall past their intended target. By 20:00, the German line was ordered to complete a 180-degree turn eastward to disengage from the British fleet. The maneuver, conducted under heavy fire, caused disorganization in the German fleet.
|
|
Leipzig: Engelmann When two straight and parallel lines are presented in front of radial background (like the spokes of a bicycle), the lines appear as if they were bowed outwards. The Orbison illusion is one of its variants, while the Wundt illusion produces a similar, but inverted effect. There are several possible explanations for why perceptual distortion produced by the radiating pattern. The illusion was ascribed by Hering to an overestimation of the angle made at the points of intersection.
|
|
These overestimate visibility consistently, such that no triangle that is visible may be omitted. The net result is that no image error is possible, however, it is possible to greatly overestimate visibility, leading to inefficient rendering (due to the rendering of invisible geometry). The focus on conservative algorithm research is maximizing occluder fusion in order to reduce this overestimation. The list of publications on this type of algorithm is extensive - good surveys on this topic include Cohen-Or et al.
|
|
A small calibration error for the Topex/Poseidon satellite was eventually identified as having caused a slight overestimation of the 1992–2005 sea levels, that masked the ongoing sea level rise acceleration. Between 1993 and 2018, the mean sea level has risen across most of the world ocean (blue colors).Lindsey, Rebecca (2019) Climate Change: Global Sea Level NOAA Climate, 19 November 2019. Satellites are useful for measuring regional variations in sea level, such as the substantial rise between 1993 and 2012 in the western tropical Pacific.
|
|
A 2010 analysis recovered the traditional conchiferan and aculiferan groups, and showed molluscs were monophyletic, demonstrating that available data for solenogastres was contaminated. Current molecular data are insufficient to constrain the molluscan phylogeny, and since the methods used to determine the confidence in clades are prone to overestimation, it is risky to place too much emphasis even on the areas of which different studies agree. Rather than eliminating unlikely relationships, the latest studies add new permutations of internal molluscan relationships, even bringing the conchiferan hypothesis into question.
|
|
Genetic factors may be the most significant cause for autism spectrum disorders. Early studies of twins had estimated heritability to be over 90%, meaning that genetics explains over 90% of whether a child will develop autism. However, this may be an overestimation, as new twin studies estimate the heritability at between 60–90%. Many of the non-autistic co-twins had learning or social disabilities. For adult siblings the risk for having one or more features of the broader autism phenotype might be as high as 30%.
|
|
One manifestation of the overconfidence effect is the tendency to overestimate one's standing on a dimension of judgment or performance. This subsection of overconfidence focuses on the certainty one feels in their own ability, performance, level of control, or chance of success. This phenomenon is most likely to occur on hard tasks, hard items, when failure is likely or when the individual making the estimate is not especially skilled. Overestimation has been seen to occur across domains other than those pertaining to one's own performance.
|
|
A 2010 analysis recovered the traditional conchiferan and aculiferan groups, and showed molluscs were monophyletic, demonstrating that available data for solenogastres was contaminated. Current molecular data are insufficient to constrain the molluscan phylogeny, and since the methods used to determine the confidence in clades are prone to overestimation, it is risky to place too much emphasis even on the areas of which different studies agree. Rather than eliminating unlikely relationships, the latest studies add new permutations of internal molluscan relationships, even bringing the conchiferan hypothesis into question.
|
|
However, George Borjas, of Harvard University, and several other economists have used time series studies and looked at wage inequality data and found that immigration does have a significant effect on domestic laborers. There are several factors, however, that might lead to the overestimation of the effects of immigration using the wage inequality methodology. The primary problem in past studies was the limitations on available data. The wage inequality studies may therefore represent an upper boundary for what the real effect of immigration is on domestic wages.
|
|
On 31 July 1848, the whole Piedmontese army had crossed the Adda and was ready to resist. But only one day later, at Crotta d'Adda, the defensive line was collapsing. In the zone of the 1st division, in fact, the commandant Sommariva decided to abandon the right bank of the river, as a result of the impossibility of stationing artillery in the marshy land, a misunderstanding of the enemy's intentions and an overestimation of his own forces. Thus the Austrians were able to cross.
|
|
The heaviest and longest dinosaur may have been Maraapunisaurus, known only from a now lost partial vertebral neural arch described in 1878. Extrapolating from the illustration of this bone, the animal may have been long and weighed kg ( lb). However, as no further evidence of sauropods of this size has been found, and the discoverer, Edward Drinker Cope, had made typographic errors before, it is likely to have been an extreme overestimation. The largest carnivorous dinosaur was Spinosaurus, reaching a length of , and weighing .
|
|
According to James D. Fearon, there are three conditions where war is possible under the bargaining model: # Uncertainty: An actor can overestimate his own abilities or the resolve of his opponent and start a war. This under- or overestimation is common throughout history. Hitler's march on USSR in 1941 was motivated by the correct assumption that the Soviet forces were significantly weaker and worse organized than the German ones. # Commitment Problems: an actor has a difficulty to commit to not use military strength in the future.
|
|
Iraqi forces retook the entirety of Tal Afar by 27 August. Some speculate that the rapid downfall of the city was due to the siege, lack of civilians, which allowed Iraqi troops to use heavy artillery, and an overestimation of the fighters that remained in the city. Iraqi troops then headed towards the town of Al-Ayadia, in order to recapture the rest of the Tal Afar pocket. Iraqi forces were reportedly slowed by snipers, booby-traps, and roadside bombs during their advance to Al-Ayadia.
|
|
The Battle of Stoney Creek was a British victory over an American force fought on 6 June 1813, during the War of 1812 near present-day Stoney Creek, Ontario. British units made a night attack on the American encampment, and due in large part to the capture of the two senior officers of the American force, and an overestimation of British strength by the Americans, the battle resulted in a total victory for the British, and a turning point in the defence of Upper Canada.
|
|
According to studies, hubris, arrogance and pretension are related to the need for victory (even if it doesn't always mean winning) instead of reconciliation, such as "friendly" groups might promote. Hubris is usually perceived as a characteristic of an individual rather than a group, although the group the offender belongs to may suffer collateral consequences from wrongful acts. Hubris often indicates a loss of contact with reality and an overestimation of one's own competence, accomplishments or capabilities. The adjectival form of the noun hubris is "hubristic".
|
|
In swine, Bischoff et al. compared transcriptional profiles using DNA microarrays to survey differentially expressed genes between parthenotes (2 maternal genomes) and control fetuses (1 maternal, 1 paternal genome). An intriguing study surveying the transcriptome of murine brain tissues revealed over 1300 imprinted gene loci (approximately 10-fold more than previously reported) by RNA-sequencing from F1 hybrids resulting from reciprocal crosses. The result however has been challenged by others who claimed that this is an overestimation by an order of magnitude due to flawed statistical analysis.
|
|
A Bayesian perceptual model replicates the tactile kappa effect and other tactile spatiotemporal illusions, including the tau effect and the cutaneous rabbit illusion. According to this model, brain circuitry encodes the expectation that tactile stimuli tend to move slowly. The Bayesian model reaches an optimal probabilistic inference by combining uncertain spatial and temporal sensory information with a prior expectation for low-speed movement. The expectation that stimuli tend to move slowly results in the perceptual overestimation of the time elapsed between rapidly successive taps applied to separate skin locations.
|
|
Musicians and audiences who use cannabis often report the primary subjective effects as a distortion of time perception, which acts to augment both musical performance and music appreciation. Contrary to the effects produced by stimulant use, cannabis use is reported to give the performer or listener a subjective perception of time expansion, resulting in the overestimation of the passage of time. Dosage and method of ingestion may lessen or accentuate this effect. This subjective effect of time expansion is responsible for most of the anecdotal accounts in the literature.
|
|
The interaction between humans and the environment is a major focus among the Geographers. The objective of this research area is to minimize the disparity between the environment and its geometric representation and the removal of spatial cognitive biases that are inherent. Examples of spatial cognitive biases include the overestimation of distance between two locations when there is a large number of intersections and nodes in the path. There is a tendency to recollect irregular streets or rivers as straighter, more parallel, or more perpendicular than they are.
|
|
Subjects indeed significantly overestimated the frequency of letters in their names, although there was no significant positive correlation between the overestimation of frequency and the name-letter effect. The researchers also asked subjects to rate how much they liked their own name. Subjects who liked their name had a stronger name-letter effect than those who did not like their name, but they did not overestimate the frequency of own-name letters more than subjects who did not like their names. Hoorens and Nuttin concluded that there is no support for the subjective frequency hypothesis.
|
|
Titan is in diameter, 1.06 times that of the planet Mercury, 1.48 that of the Moon, and 0.40 that of Earth. Before the arrival of Voyager 1 in 1980, Titan was thought to be slightly larger than Ganymede (diameter ) and thus the largest moon in the Solar System; this was an overestimation caused by Titan's dense, opaque atmosphere, with a haze layer 100-200 kilometres above its surface. This increases its apparent diameter. Titan's diameter and mass (and thus its density) are similar to those of the Jovian moons Ganymede and Callisto.
|
|
In 712 BCE the State of Xi sent a punitive expedition against the State of Zhèng. At that time, Duke Zhuang of Zheng had for many years repeatedly attacked large States such as Song and Wey amongst others and Zhèng was at the height of its military power.Zuo Zhuan • 11th Year of Yin Gong The expedition resulted in decisive defeat for Xi, and the Zuo Zhuan commentary on the expedition criticises Xi's overestimation of its own strength. Nonetheless, some scholars believe that Xi's expedition indicated its military was quite powerful and a match for Zheng.
|
|
For example, leave one-out cross- validation generally leads to an overestimation of predictive capacity. Even with external validation, it is difficult to determine whether the selection of training and test sets was manipulated to maximize the predictive capacity of the model being published. Different aspects of validation of QSAR models that need attention include methods of selection of training set compounds, setting training set size and impact of variable selection for training set models for determining the quality of prediction. Development of novel validation parameters for judging quality of QSAR models is also important.
|
|
Raeder's deputy, Admiral Rolf Carls wrote with pride in his diary in October 1941 that "all our forces have been deployed so often and so recklessly that never can the charge of tepidity be levelled against us".Herwig p. 100. Admiral Wilhelm Marschall after the war was to call Raeder's strategy as "wishful and prestige thinking, fateful overestimation of Germany's political and military possibilities, unfounded underestimation of the enemy England, and nonsensical insistence upon operational thoughts tied to the Z Plan", a naval strategy based upon "phantasy, prestige-seeking and playing vabanque".
|
|
The Hut Group sued Oliver Cookson over the sale of Myprotein in 2011. Cookson was sued for £15 million, with The Hut Group claiming overestimation affected the valuation of the company when they bought it. Cookson counter sued for £12.7 million claiming a breach of warranty and fraudulent mis- representation. The matter went to the High Court in London in October 2014 and after a month-long trial judgement was given by William Blair in November 2014 giving Oliver Cookson an overall net result win of £6.5m in damages.
|
|
MRA techniques in general are sensitive to turbulent flow, which causes a variety of different magnetized proton spins to lose phase coherence (intra-voxel dephasing phenomenon) and cause a loss of signal. This phenomenon may result in the overestimation of arterial stenosis. Other artifacts observed at MRA include: Phase-contrast MRA: Phase wrapping caused by the under estimation of maximum blood velocity in the image. The fast moving blood about maximum set velocity for phase- contrast MRA gets aliased and the signal wraps from pi to -pi instead making flow information unreliable.
|
|
A narrow field of vision caused by a small viewport in a helmet results in greatly reduced stereoacuity, and associated loss of hand-eye coordination. At very short range in clear water distance is underestimated, in accordance with magnification due to refraction through the flat lens of the mask, but at greater distances - greater than arm's reach, the distance tends to be overestimated to a degree influenced by turbidity. Both relative and absolute depth perception are reduced underwater. Loss of contrast results in overestimation, and magnification effects account for underestimation at short range.
|
|
This strategy may also cause overestimation of one's knowledge, as demonstrated by the following case in McNamara's preliminary analysis, showing evidence of the Dunning-Kruger effect: :The final task given to the PhotoReading expert was to read the three chapters from the textbook on Physiology in order to take an exam from a course that used that textbook. The question was simply: Would she pass the exam? The expert took 73 minutes to PhotoRead and read the three chapters of the textbook required for the test (i.e., 361 words per minute).
|
|
However, since the dye does not discriminate the double-stranded DNA from the PCR products and those from the primer-dimers, overestimation of the target concentration is a common problem. Where accurate quantification is an absolute necessity, further assay for the validation of results must be performed. Nevertheless, among the real-time RT- PCR product detection methods, SYBR Green is the most economical and easiest to use. Taqman probes ; TaqMan probes: TaqMan probes are oligonucleotides that have a fluorescent probe attached to the 5' end and a quencher to the 3' end.
|
|
RW Cephei, an orange hypergiant, together with the red supergiants Mu Cephei, MY Cephei, SW Cephei, VV Cephei, and V354 Cephei are among the largest stars known. In addition, Cepheus also has the hyperluminous quasar S5 0014+81, which hosts an ultramassive black hole in its core, reported at 40 billion solar masses, about 10,000 times more massive than the central black hole of the Milky Way, making this among the most massive black holes currently known. This paper does acknowledge the possibility of an optical illusion that would cause an overestimation of the mass.
|
|
In 1931, notable European physicist Albert Einstein exchanged written letters with Gandhi, and called him "a role model for the generations to come" in a letter writing about him. Einstein said of Gandhi: > Mahatma Gandhi's life achievement stands unique in political history. He has > invented a completely new and humane means for the liberation war of an > oppressed country, and practised it with greatest energy and devotion. The > moral influence he had on the consciously thinking human being of the entire > civilised world will probably be much more lasting than it seems in our time > with its overestimation of brutal violent forces.
|
|
A native of Nagano Prefecture, Shinkai studied Japanese literature at Chuo University, where he was a member of the juvenile literature club and drew picture books. He traces his passion for creation to the manga, anime and novels he was exposed to in middle school. His favorite anime films are Laputa: Castle in the Sky, Nausicaä and The Castle of Cagliostro by Hayao Miyazaki, The End of Evangelion by Hideaki Anno and Patlabor 2 by Mamoru Oshii. Shinkai has been called "The New Miyazaki" in several reviews, including those by Anime Advocates and ActiveAnime—comparisons he calls an "overestimation".
|
|
Differential misclassification occurs when the error rate or probability of being misclassified differs across groups of study subjects. For example, the accuracy of blood pressure measurement may be lower for heavier than for lighter study subjects, or a study of elderly persons may find that reports from elderly persons with dementia are less reliable than those without dementia. The effect(s) of such misclassification can vary from an overestimation to an underestimation of the true value. Statisticians have developed methods to adjust for this type of bias, which may assist somewhat in compensating for this problem when known and when it is quantifiable.
|
|
Operationally, the wind intensity value was estimated by Hurricane Hunters at when the hurricane was located about south- southwest of Bermuda; this estimate is now believed to have been an overestimation of the peak winds in Hurricane Dog, though the storm produced enormous wave heights at sea. Maintaining peak intensity for about 18 hours, Dog began a weakening trend as it made a sharp turn to the west. It accelerated to the north on September 10, and two days later Dog passed within of Cape Cod. Newspapers attributed heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic states—which resulted in five deaths—to the hurricane.
|
|
In actuality, less than 1 percent of the US federal budget goes towards foreign aid. Less than 19 percent of respondents thought that the percent of the budget that goes towards foreign aid was less than 5 percent. Steven Kull, director of PIPA, relates this overestimation towards an increase in hearing about foreign aid efforts during the Obama administration, but estimates of foreign aid have always been high. A poll conducted in 2013 by Research Pew Center found that the majority of Americans wanted to either maintain or increase spending on all US government initiatives except foreign aid.
|
|
The origin of this group of frogs was largely unknown, due to the lack of members of this family in the fossil record. While the family was originally considered to have originated in the early-mid Cretaceous (100-126 mya) via fossils of related frog groups, a study in early 2017 revealed that this was likely an overestimation. Using DNA sequencing, the study indicated the group more likely originated much later during the Cretaceous period, around 77 mya. The study also indicated that there are likely many more new species in the family that are currently unknown to science.
|
|
This would result in an overestimation of haplogroup age, thus falsely extending the demographic history of Europe into the Late Paleolithic rather than the Neolithic era. Greater certainty about chronology may be obtained from studies of ancient DNA (see below), but so far these have been comparatively few. Whereas Y-DNA and mtDNA haplogroups represent but a small component of a person's DNA pool, autosomal DNA has the advantage of containing hundreds of thousands of examinable genetic loci, thus giving a more complete picture of genetic composition. Descent relationships can only be determined on a statistical basis, because autosomal DNA undergoes recombination.
|
|
They believe that the total of expected voters should be increased by 10.5 million because the roll of voters excluded those deprived of their rights, in prison or in exile. ADK maintained that many young military men did not participate in the election, and an overestimation of women in rural areas without internal passports who sought to avoid compulsory heavy labor. Included in the voter total were 29.9 million "excess" women. However number of expected voters estimated by ADK the gap between males and females was 21.4 million, which approximates the 20.7 million gap revealed by the 1959 census.
|
|
British units made a night attack on an American encampment. Due in large part to the capture of both American brigadier generals, and an overestimation of British strength by the Americans, the battle was a victory for the British, and a turning point in the defence of Upper Canada. Battlefield House, built in 1796, and fifteen and one-half acres of parkland, (Battlefield Park), was property of the Women's Wentworth Historical Society, (1899–1962), and given by this society to the Niagara Parks Commission as a National historical site on January 19, 1962. One can reach the Bruce Trail via Centennial Parkway South.
|
|
The radial artery lies superficially in front of the distal end of the radius, between the tendons of the brachioradialis and flexor carpi radialis; it is here that clinician takes the radial pulse. (where it is commonly used to assess the heart rate and cardiac rhythm). Presence of radial pulse was thought to indicate a systolic blood pressure of at least 70 mmHg, as estimated from the 50% percentile, although this was found to generally be an overestimation of a patient's true blood pressure. The radial artery can be less easily felt as it crosses the anatomical snuff box.
|
|
A people would attach this myth to a famous person to recognize him as a hero whose life had conformed to the typical plan. Freud explained that the inner source of the myth was the “family romance” of the child, in which the son reacts to the change in his inner relationship to his parents, especially that to his father. In this romance, the child's early years are governed by overestimation of his father, represented by a king in dreams. Later, influenced by rivalry and disappointment, the release from the parents and a critical attitude towards the father sets in.
|
|
When arrested, Grigorenko was sent to Moscow's Lubyanka prison, and from there for psychiatric examination to the Serbsky Institute where the first commission, which included Snezhnevsky and Lunts, diagnosed him as suffering from the mental disease in the form of a paranoid delusional development of his personality, accompanied by early signs of cerebral arteriosclerosis. Lunts, reporting later on this diagnosis, mentioned that the symptoms of paranoid development were "an overestimation of his own personality reaching messianic proportions" and "reformist ideas." Grigorenko was not responsible for his actions and was thereby forcibly committed to a special psychiatric hospital.
|
|
Communication with Berlin resulted only in exhortations to protect the wireless at Kamina. The speed of the Allied invasion, the German overestimation of the numbers involved and the hostility of local civilians, proved to be insuperable obstacles. A German account noted that many of the Germans were untrained, that the defences of Kamina were too widespread for the German force adequately to garrison and were overlooked by nearby hills. The British had been helped by the quick action of the French civilian and military authorities, the endurance of the troops and the assistance from civilians in the Gold Coast.
|
|
The reduction of development and modernization to economic growth (poverty as equivalent to underdevelopment), overestimation of strong media effects and the ethnocentric promotion of adopting a Western model of society are today commonly viewed as the central reasons why modernization theory was subverted by early 1970. The 1950s also showed early studies of international news flows, with assumingly the first one conducted by the International Press Institute in 1953,International Press Institute (1953). The flow of news. Zürich. which was followed by more systematic analyses in the early 1960s by Wilbur Schramm (1960),Schramm, W. (1960).
|
|
"A study of 6,928 girls ages 9 to 14 years old found that the desire to emulate the appearance of females on television, in movies, and in magazines was predictive of beginning purging behavior at least on a monthly basis." Approximately 92% of women feel pressure to conform to the standards of beauty which the media perpetuates. After viewing images of women with "ideal" body weights, 95% of women overestimate their body size and 40% overestimate the size of their waist, hips, cheeks, or thighs. Those with eating disorders, such as anorexia nervosa or bulimia nervosa, show a significant increase in overestimation of body size after viewing such images.
|
|
The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person's subjective confidence in his or her judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high. Overconfidence is one example of a miscalibration of subjective probabilities. Throughout the research literature, overconfidence has been defined in three distinct ways: (1) overestimation of one's actual performance; (2) overplacement of one's performance relative to others; and (3) overprecision in expressing unwarranted certainty in the accuracy of one's beliefs. The most common way in which overconfidence has been studied is by asking people how confident they are of specific beliefs they hold or answers they provide.
|
|
One popular home method to determine the presence of bad breath is to lick the back of the wrist, let the saliva dry for a minute or two, and smell the result. This test results in overestimation, as concluded from research, and should be avoided. A better way would be to lightly scrape the posterior back of the tongue with a plastic disposable spoon and to smell the drying residue. Home tests that use a chemical reaction to test for the presence of polyamines and sulfur compounds on tongue swabs are now available, but there are few studies showing how well they actually detect the odour.
|
|
Egocentric bias might also result in an overestimation of the number of students that received low grades in the class for the purpose to normalize these students' performance. However, similar to the false- consensus effect, the self-serving bias and the egocentric bias have also been used as interchangeable terms. Both concepts may be the product of individualistic cultures that usually stress independence and personal achievement over group-oriented success. Cross-cultural studies have found a strong presence of the egocentric bias in the primarily individualistic American, South African, and Yugoslavian communities, but noted the opposite effect in the collectivistic Japanese, Nepali, and Indian societies.
|
|
He wrote a controversial article in The New York Review of Books entitled "More Than 100 Million Women Are Missing" (see Missing women of Asia), analyzing the mortality impact of unequal rights between the genders in the developing world, particularly Asia. Other studies, including one by Emily Oster, had argued that this is an overestimation, though Oster has since then recanted her conclusions. In 1999, Sen further advanced and redefined the capability approach in his book Development as Freedom. Sen argues that development should be viewed as an effort to advance the real freedoms that individuals enjoy, rather than simply focusing on metrics such as GDP or income-per-capita.
|
|
Another of Cook's men, Lieutenant James King, estimated the peak to be at least high based on its snow line. The Scottish botanist and naturalist Archibald Menzies was the first European to reach the summit of Mauna Loa, on his third attempt. The next attempt to summit Mauna Loa was an expedition led by Archibald Menzies, a botanist and naturalist on the 1793 Vancouver Expedition. In February of that year Menzies, two ships' mates, and a small group of native Hawaiian attendants attempted a direct course for the summit from Kealakekua Bay, making it inland by their reckoning (an overestimation) before they were turned away by the thickness of the forest.
|
|
When neither mediator is included in the analysis, intelligence appears to have no effect or a weak effect on errors. However, when boredom is controlled intelligence will appear to decrease errors, and when error detection is controlled intelligence will appear to increase errors. If intelligence could be increased while only boredom was held constant, errors would decrease; if intelligence could be increased while holding only error detection constant, errors would increase. In general, the omission of suppressors or confounders will lead to either an underestimation or an overestimation of the effect of A on X, thereby either reducing or artificially inflating the magnitude of a relationship between two variables.
|
|
Stimulants such as thyroxine, caffeine, and amphetamines lead to overestimation of time intervals by both humans and rats, while depressants and anesthetics such as barbiturates, nitrous oxide can have the opposite effect and lead to underestimation of time intervals. The level of activity in the brain of neurotransmitters such as dopamine and norepinephrine may be the reason for this. A research on stimulant-dependent individuals (SDI) showed several abnormal time processing characteristics including larger time differences for effective duration discrimination, and overestimating the duration of a relatively long time interval. Altered time processing and perception in SDI could explain the difficulty SDI have with delaying gratification.
|
|
However, this does not contribute to decreasing the actual number of deaths. Also, errors in reporting of pregnancy status have been seen, which most likely leads to overestimation of the number of pregnancy-related deaths. Again, this does not contribute to explaining why the death rate has increased, but does show complications between reporting and actual contributions to the overall rate of maternal mortality. Even though 99% of births in the United States are attended by some form of skilled health professional, the maternal mortality ratio in 2015 was 14 deaths per 100,000 live births and it has been shown that the maternal mortality rate has been increasing.
|
|
The temperature graphs calculated from instrumental temperatures and from these tree ring proxies thus "diverge" from one another since the 1950s, which is the origin of the term. This divergence raises obvious questions of whether other, unrecognized divergences have occurred in the past, prior to the era of thermometers. There is evidence suggesting that the divergence is caused by human activities, and so confined to the recent past, but use of affected proxies can lead to overestimation of past temperatures, understating the current warming trend. There is continuing research into explanations and ways to reconcile this the discrepancy between analysis of tree ring data and thermometer based data.
|
|
Who benefits from KIPP? Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 31(4), pp. 837-860. In further research with Atila Abdulkadiroglu, they also find that being assigned by lottery to a Boston charter school strongly and significantly raises middle and high school students' test scores, whereas being assigned to a pilot school sometimes decreases test scores. Finally, Kane has also studied the relationship between school quality and housing prices: together with Staiger and Stephanie Riegg, he finds evidence that school boundaries systematically affect housing prices, though the impact is prone to overestimation and partly mediated by demographic characteristics and improvements in housing that are independent from school boundaries.
|
|
Later surveys showed the eastern abutment had rotated and moved by 100–150 mm and sunk 0.7 m, and the bridge bearings had overrun by 100 mm. The bridge problems were caused by underestimations of the depth of the soft alluvial layers on the eastern bank, and secondly overestimation of the rate at which the ground would consolidate during construction which led to the assumption that the settlement of the eastern abutment would be largely over by the time the abutment was complete – instead significant settlement was to continue on after construction. Ground settlement is a problem in the area – the nearby 'Tees Bridge' rail bridge had speed restrictions imposed as it too showed signs of distress.
|
|
Another reason was the MPPC's overestimation of the efficiency of controlling the motion picture industry through patent litigation and the exclusion of independents from licensing. The slow process of using detectives to investigate patent infringements, and of obtaining injunctions against the infringers, was outpaced by the dynamic rise of new companies in diverse locations. Despite the rise in popularity of feature films in 1912–1913 from independent producers and foreign imports, the MPPC was very reluctant to make the changes necessary to distribute such longer films. Edison, Biograph, Essanay, and Vitagraph did not release their first features until 1914, after dozens, if not hundreds, of feature films, had been released by independents.
|
|
The Battle of Verdun ( December 1916) began a week after Joffre and Haig agreed to mount an offensive on the Somme. The German offensive at Verdun was intended to threaten the capture of the city and induce the French to fight an attrition battle, in which German advantages of terrain and firepower would cause the French disproportionate casualties. The battle changed the nature of the offensive on the Somme, as French divisions were diverted to Verdun, and the main effort by the French diminished to a supporting attack for the British. German overestimation of the cost of Verdun to the French contributed to the concentration of German infantry and guns on the north bank of the Somme.
|
|
In addition, the British intended to pre-empt the expected French pressure for an international administration in Palestine. Some historians argue that the British government's decision reflected what James Gelvin, Professor of Middle Eastern History at UCLA, calls 'patrician anti-Semitism' in the overestimation of Jewish power in both the United States and Russia. American Zionism was still in its infancy; in 1914 the Zionist Federation had a small budget of about $5,000 and only 12,000 members, despite an American Jewish population of three million. But the Zionist organizations had recently succeeded, following a show of force within the American Jewish community, in arranging a Jewish congress to debate the Jewish problem as a whole.
|
|
Subsequently, difficulty arose in crediting the number of victories for each side, thanks in part to poor records, intentional overestimation, and the difficulty of confirming crashes in MiG Alley, where the majority of air-to- air combat took place in the war. As a result, there is a large discrepancy on both sides as to the number of victories claimed versus aircraft lost, and it is extremely difficult to determine the accuracy of many victories. The ace status of dozens of pilots still remains in question. Aviators from four nations may have qualified as aces during the Korean War; between six and nine aces have been estimated for China and up to four in North Korea.
|
|
He emphasizes how this overestimation of reason led to Nietzsche's utter repudiation of the possibility of moral rationality.After Virtue, 257 By contrast, MacIntyre attempts to reclaim more modest forms of moral rationality and argumentation which claim neither finality nor logical certainty, but which can hold up against relativistic or emotivist denials of any moral rationality whatsoever (the mistaken conclusion of Nietzsche, Sartre, and Stevenson). He revives the tradition of Aristotelian ethics with its teleological account of the good and of moral actions, as fulfilled in the medieval writings of Thomas Aquinas. This Aristotelian-Thomistic tradition, he proposes, presents "the best theory so far," both of how things are and how we ought to act.
|
|
Furthermore, the conversion factor, known as the "deer multiplier", used in the calculations was incorrectly applied, causing a 30% overestimation of carrying capacity and corresponding underestimation of impacts. The two organizations determined, in total, the carrying capacity for the Sitka deer in places throughout the Tongass had been generally been overestimated by the Forest Service in its timber planning, by as much as 120% (varying geographically due to the faulty data). In 2008, Greenpeace and the Cascadia Wildlands Project sued to stop the Forest Service from proceeding with four timber sales on the Tongass NF slated to extract around "30 million board-feet of Tongass timber", an amount close to the annual volume then being logged.Greenpeace v. Cole.
|
|
Unlike carbon-14 dating, luminescence dating methods do not require a contemporary organic component of the sediment to be dated; just quartz, potassium feldspar, or certain other mineral grains that have been fully bleached during the event being dated. These methods also do not suffer from overestimation of dates when the sediment in question has been mixed with “old carbon”, or -deficient carbon that is not the same isotopic ratio as the atmosphere. In a study of the chronology of arid-zone lacustrine sediments from Lake Ulaan in southern Mongolia, Lee et al. discovered that OSL and radiocarbon dates agreed in some samples, but the radiocarbon dates were up to 5800 years older in others.
|
|
In this way, Dennett compares consciousness to stage magic and its capability to create extraordinary illusions out of ordinary things. To show how people might be commonly fooled into overstating the powers of consciousness, Dennett describes a normal phenomenon called change blindness, a visual process that involves failure to detect scenery changes in a series of alternating images. He uses this concept to argue that the overestimation of the brain's visual processing implies that the conception of our consciousness is likely not as pervasive as we make it out to be. He claims that this error of making consciousness more mysterious than it is could be a misstep in any developments toward an effective explanatory theory.
|
|
However, these findings may not be because depressed people have fewer illusions than people who are not depressed. Studies such as show that depressed people believe they have no control in situations where they actually do, so their perspection is not more accurate overall. It might also be that the pessimistic bias of depressives results in "depressive realism" when, for example, measuring estimation of control when there is none, as proposed by . Also, and found that when replicating Alloy and Abramson's findings the overestimation of control in nondepressed people only showed up when the interval was long enough, implying that this is because they take more aspects of a situation into account than their depressed counterparts.
|
|
McClellan's Peninsula Campaign toward Richmond stalled at the Battle of Seven Pines on May 31 and June 1. After the Valley Campaign ended in mid-June, Jackson and his troops were called to join Robert E. Lee's Army of Northern Virginia in defense of the capital. By utilizing a railroad tunnel under the Blue Ridge Mountains and then transporting troops to Hanover County on the Virginia Central Railroad, Jackson and his forces made a surprise appearance in front of McClellan at Mechanicsville. Reports had last placed Jackson's forces in the Shenandoah Valley; their presence near Richmond added greatly to the Union commander's overestimation of the strength and numbers of the forces before him.
|
|
When arrested, Grigorenko was sent to Moscow's Lubyanka prison, and from there for psychiatric examination to the Serbsky Institute where the first commission, which included Snezhnevsky and Lunts, diagnosed him as suffering from the mental disease in the form of a paranoid delusional development of his personality, accompanied by early signs of cerebral arteriosclerosis. Lunts, reporting later on this diagnosis, mentioned that the symptoms of paranoid development were "an overestimation of his own personality reaching messianic proportions" and "reformist ideas." Grigorenko was irresponsible for his actions and was thereby forcibly committed to a special psychiatric hospital. While there, the government deprived him of his pension despite the fact that, by law, a mentally sick military officer was entitled to a pension.
|
|
The third-person effect hypothesis predicts that people tend to perceive that mass media messages have a greater effect on others than on themselves, based on personal biases. The third-person effect manifests itself through an individual's overestimation of the effect of a mass communicated message on the generalized other, or an underestimation of the effect of a mass communicated message on themselves. These types of perceptions stem from a self-motivated social desirability (not feeling influenced by mass messages promotes self-esteem), a social-distance corollary (choosing to dissociate oneself from the others who may be influenced) and a perceived exposure to a message (others choose to be influenced by persuasive communication). Other names for the effect are "Third-person perception" and "Web Third-person effect".
|
|
Blaming 1,000 businesses for making "significant errors" on the application form, the Australian Government revealed it had overbudgeted the program, and that it was forecast to cost 70 billion, not 130 billion. The Treasury also announced that its original forecast of 6.5 million recipients was inaccurate, and closer to 3.5 million. Prime Minister Scott Morrison celebrated the saving, while the Opposition announced a parliamentary inquiry in an attempt to compel Treasurer Josh Frydenberg to explain the overestimation. In July 2020, Australian Finance Minister Mathias Cormann in his interview with the CNBC vowed that government's budget deficit is expected to increase to 85.8 billion Australian dollars in the Financial year that ended on 30 June and further widen to $184.5 billion in the new fiscal year.
|
|
The number of immigrants in the United States born in Israel is estimated by demographers to be close to 140,000, while the number of Israeli immigrants in the US is an issue that has been debated by laymen to be much larger, a phenomenon of overestimation of co-ethnic population common to many ethnic communities. Israeli immigration to the United States developed during the 1980s and 1990s due to a number of reasons, including the war between Israelis and Palestinians and high taxes and lack of housing available in their homeland. Also, the acquisition of aspects of American culture (especially fashion and entertainment) in Israel caused many Israelis to want to have the economic and educational opportunities of the United States.
|
|
A prediction line must be constructed based on the right end point tangent's slope alone, approximated using Euler's Method. If this slope is passed through the left end point of the interval, the result is evidently too steep to be used as an ideal prediction line and overestimates the ideal point. Therefore, the ideal point lies approximately halfway between the erroneous overestimation and underestimation, the average of the two slopes. A diagram depicting the use of Heun's method to find a less erroneous prediction when compared to the lower order Euler's Method Euler's Method is used to roughly estimate the coordinates of the next point in the solution, and with this knowledge, the original estimate is re-predicted or corrected. .
|
|
In Global Flood Hazard: Applications in Modeling, Mapping, and Forecasting, CFAN was called a "notable example" for flood early warning processes, and their system was praised in terms of effectiveness and cost. Their probabilistic forecasts are made available online for customers, and can be used for operational and disaster management. In Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems For Climate Change CFAN was cited as an example of "strong institutional networking and commitments" that have facilitated development of flood forecasting schemes and their application, at the international level. In Flood Forecasting: A Global Perspective CFAN's Bangladesh flood timing and flood risk predictions for the Brahmaputra River were characterized as "skillful," despite the "considerable overestimation or underestimation of peak magnitudes", with predictions for the Ganges being "less skillful".
|
|
In the last two decades considerable attention has been drawn to the methods of computing price indexes. The Boskin Commission in 1996 asserted that there were biases in the price index: traditional matched model indexes can substantially overestimate inflation, because they are not able to measure the impact of peculiarities of specific industries such as fast rotation of goods, huge quality differences among products on the market, and short product life cycle. The Commission showed that the usage of matched model indexes (traditional price indexes) leads to an overestimation of inflation by 0.6% per year in the US official CPI (CPI-U). Information and Communications Technology (ICT) products led both to an increase in capital stock and labor productivity growth.
|
|
The final cost of the Brent Spar operation to Shell was between £60M and £100M, when loss of sales were considered. Although Shell and the offshore industry consider that Brent Spar did not set a precedent for disposal of facilities in the future, signatory nations of the OSPAR conventions have since agreed that oil facilities should be disposed of onshore, so it is difficult to see how this does not set a precedent. Shell claimed that spending such an amount to protect a small area of remote, low resource value, deep sea was pointless and this money could be much more constructively spent. The overestimation of the contents of the Brent Spar damaged the credibility of Greenpeace in their wider campaigns.
|
|
The theory that underlies the simulation heuristic assumes that one's judgments are bias towards information that is easily imagined or simulated mentally. It is because of this that we see biases having to do with the overestimation of how causally plausible an event could be or the enhanced regret experienced when it is easy to mentally undo an unfortunate event, such as an accident. Significant research on simulation heuristic's application in counterfactual reasoning has been performed by Dale T Miller and Bryan Taylor. For example, they found that if an affectively negative experience, such as a fatal car accident was brought about by an extraordinary event, such as someone usually goes by train to work but instead drove; the simulation heuristic will cause an emotional reaction of regret.
|
|
All these previous estimates were basically guesses, but in 2009 Monge et al. performed calculations using known population densities, satellite imagery and the known ranges, and estimated a total population of 7,000, of which 1,530 were to be found in Costa Rica and the southeastern portion of Nicaragua, and 302 in Costa Rica. An unreferenced global population estimate by the American Bird Conservancy in 2016 put the population at 3,500. In the second Red List of birds in Colombia in 2014, 3,385 birds were calculated for that country, using 1/4 lower population density statistics than normal for a number of reasons, but even then the authors state their belief that this is an overestimation, and find a population of 2,500 mature birds in the country more likely.
|
|
Like other sauropods, Brachiosaurus was probably homeothermic (maintaining a stable internal temperature) and endothermic (controlling body temperature through internal means) at least while growing, meaning that it could actively control its body temperature ("warm-blooded"), producing the necessary heat through a high basic metabolic rate of its cells. Russel (1989) used Brachiosaurus as an example of a dinosaur for which endothermy is unlikely, because of the combination of great size (leading to overheating) and great caloric needs to fuel endothermy. Sander (2010) found that these calculations were based on incorrect body mass estimates and faulty assumptions on the available cooling surfaces, as the presence of large air sacs was unknown at the time of the study. These inaccuracies resulted in the overestimation of heat production and the underestimation of heat loss.
|
|
This way of counting was criticised by Flemish Minister for Tourism, Zuhal Demir, as it would portray Belgium as bad in the fight against coronavirus and also would harm the Belgian reputation of being a prominent country in the pharmaceutical and biotech industries. Some doctors complained that deaths caused by other pathologies and causes have been lumped into the COVID-19 category. The virologist Marc Van Ranst, member of the Belgian Scientific Committee for Coronavirus, also criticised the way of counting, saying it is "dumb" that almost all deaths occurring in care homes are being counted as COVID-19 deaths, leading to an overestimation according to him. Belgian authorities however defend their strategy for being the most transparent and the most detailed method, even if it results in numbers that are "sometimes overestimated".
|
|
In reality, a single individual's growth curve shows large upward and downward spikes, partly due to actual differences in growth velocity, and partly due to small measurement errors. For example, a typical measurement error of plus or minus 0.5 cm may completely nullify 0.5 cm of actual growth resulting in either a "negative" 0.5 cm growth (due to overestimation in the previous visit combined with underestimation in the latter), up to a 1.5 cm growth (the first visit underestimating and the second visit overestimating) in the same elapsed time period between measurements. Note there is a discontinuity in the growth curves at age 2, which reflects the difference in recumbent length (with the child on his or her back), used in measuring infants and toddlers and standing height typically measured from age 2 onwards.
|
|
Motivated Distortions: When faced with a negative event people may have forecasts that are overestimated and can evoke either comfort or fear in the present. The overestimation however can often be used to soften the effects of an event or make it easier by the reality not being as extreme as the forecasted impact. Under correction (anchoring and adjustment): People anchor their prediction on how they currently feel and never accurately adjust their predictions. An illustrative example proposed by Wilson and Gilbert (2005), is that if you are currently in bed with a cold, and are invited to a party a month from now, it will be very difficult to separate your negative feelings from your prediction of how you will feel on a Saturday night a month later.
|
|
A frequent commentator on state-run television outlets, Zhang is known of his successful predictions about the Gulf War and wrong predictions during the CCTV live broadcast of the Iraq War, mainly due to the overestimation of Iraqi military's will to fight and failure to completely understand the American strategy. . He is also known for some of his belligerent comments to hide the real military strength of China. The best-known instance was his dramatical denial of the existence of the Chinese stealth fighter J-20 by exaggerating the American technological advantages. In contrast, he also sometimes expresses a low opinion of U.S. military capabilities, with his 2012 assertion that the U.S. would "run like a rabbit" if China went to war with Japan over the Diaoyu Islands being an example.
|
|
The Battle of Chra was fought by British and French troops against German soldiers and paramilitary police in the village of Chra, near the Chra river on 22 August 1914, during the Togoland Campaign of the First World War. The German defenders mined the approaches to the river, blew the bridges and dug in around the village on the far bank, ready to defend the crossing with rifles and three concealed machine-guns. The British-French attack was repulsed and then a German counter-attack was ordered but many troops refused the order and the attack was not delivered. The Germans retired overnight to Kamina, due to apprehension that other British and French troops would cut off the Germans retreat and overestimation of the number of their opponents.
|
|
Treating each pirated copy as a lost sale, and using an estimate for the number of pirated copies in existence, multiplied by their retail value, as tangible loss of profits by the industry has been called disparagingly "copyright math" (a term coined by writer Robert Reid) that leads to overestimation of the content industry losses. In academic literature there is no consensus that the concept of piracy is clearly correlated with reduction of revenue of sales of the pirated product, and estimates of lost sales have been similarly criticized, with a 2010 U.S. government report noting that many commonly cited figures cannot be substantiated. Similarly, estimates of lost sales translated to concepts such as lost jobs or reduction in individual or national incomes have been shown to be highly problematic. A 2009 court case, United States v.
|
|
The technique of rarefaction was developed in 1968 by Howard Sanders in a biodiversity assay of marine benthic ecosystems, as he sought a model for diversity that would allow him to compare species richness data among sets with different sample sizes; he developed rarefaction curves as a method to compare the shape of a curve rather than absolute numbers of species. Following initial development by Sanders, the technique of rarefaction has undergone a number of revisions. In a paper criticizing many methods of assaying biodiversity, Stuart Hurlbert refined the problem that he saw with Sanders' rarefaction method, that it overestimated the number of species based on sample size, and attempted to refine his methods. The issue of overestimation was also dealt with by Daniel Simberloff, while other improvements in rarefaction as a statistical technique were made by Ken Heck in 1975.
|
|
The OSCE's Kent Härstedt suggested the vote may have been undermined by "significant problems," especially during the counting of the votes: "It is clear that Belarus still has a long way to go towards fulfilling its democratic commitments." Multiple days of "coerced participation of prison inmates, army conscripts, and public servants" were documented, and the Viasna human rights group documented cases of forced early voting among students of state universities and workers of state organizations.Минск: На предприятиях и в общежитиях принуждают голосовать досрочноВ государственных вузах наблюдается давление на студентов в связи с выборами The "Human Rights Defenders for Free Elections" group also registered the overestimation of turnout (half of independent observers noted that the actual number of early voters didn't match with the official turnout) and unreasonable interference in observers' work. On election day, independent observers noted several violations during the elections.
|
|
As a question opened for decades, bioelectrodynamics was not always part of scientific mainstream and thus it was sometimes treated with poor scientific standards. This is particularly true for: # - overestimation of the significance of experimental data obtained (Kucera argues that claims by several authors about direct measurement of cellular electromagnetic activity in radio-frequency band should be accepted with skepticism since technical properties of experimental setups have not even met criteria arising from optimistic theoretical biophysical predictions. Firstly, spatial resolution of used sensors was too low with respect to expected spatial complexity of electromagnetic field in cells. Secondly, the sensitivity of experimental setups was not high enough compared to power available in living cell.), # - misinterpretation of experimental data (Fritz-Albert Popp's claim about coherence of photo-emission from cellsPopp FA (1999) About the Coherence of Biophotons 1999 Proceedings of an International Conference on Macroscopic Quantum Coherence, Boston University.
|
|
As the adjacent diagram shows, if ammonium is indeed nitrified to nitrate in the ocean's surface waters it essentially "short circuits" the deep pathway of nitrate. In practice, this would lead to an overestimation of new production and a higher f-ratio, since some of the ostensibly new production would actually be fuelled by recently nitrified nitrate that had never left the surface ocean. After including nitrification measurements in its parameterisation, an ecosystem model of the oligotrophic subtropical gyre region (specifically the BATS site) found that, on an annual basis, around 40% of surface nitrate was recently nitrified (rising to almost 90% during summer). A further study synthesising geographically diverse nitrification measurements found high variability but no relationship with depth, and applied this in a global-scale model to estimate that up to a half of surface nitrate is supplied by surface nitrification rather than upwelling.
|
|
A direct effect of alcohol on a person's brain is an overestimation of how quickly their body is recovering from the effects of alcohol. A study, discussed in the article "Why drunk drivers may get behind the wheel", was done with college students in which the students were tested with "a hidden maze learning task as their BAC [Blood Alcohol Content] both rose and fell over an 8-hour period." The researchers found through the study that as the students became more drunk there was an increase in their mistakes "and the recovery of the underlying cognitive impairments that lead to these errors is slower, and more closely tied to the actual blood alcohol concentration, than the more rapid reduction in participants' subjective feeling of drunkenness." The participants believed that they were recovering from the adverse effects of alcohol much more quickly than they actually were.
|
|
In September 2016, Facebook admitted that it had reported artificially inflated numbers to its advertisers about how long viewers watched ads leading to an overestimation of 60-80% Facebook apologized in an official statement and in multiple staff appearances at New York Advertising Week. Two months later, Facebook disclosed additional errors in audience metrics. In October 2018, a California federal court unsealed the text of a class action lawsuit filed by advertisers against Facebook, alleging that Facebook had known since 2015 that its viewership numbers were inflated "by some 150 to 900 percent" and waited over a year before taking action to disclose or fix the problem, citing internal Facebook communications that "somehow there was no progress on the task for the year" and decisions to "obfuscate the fact that we screwed up the math." In response, some journalists and industry analysts complained that the industry-wide "pivot to video" was based on lies, though some publishers disagreed.
|
|
By October 2137 the population stood at seventy two million and was growing rapidly reaching 100 million around 2139. However the destruction of the Academy of Law during Chaos Day has disrupted the supply of cadets, and it is all the remaining judges can do to cope with the expanding population as it will be years before replacement of losses is reliable again.Judge Dredd: Megazine Meg 365: Judge Dredd: Terror rising part 1 In 2019 a story set in 2141 stated that the population had been revised upwards to 130 million, due to a number of reasons, including the overestimation of the number of deaths in Chaos Day, a declining death rate since then, and births and immigration. It also confirmed that many citizens fled either before or during the Chaos plague and have been slowly returning in the seven years since, and that the Chaos bug disproportionately killed the elderly ensuring a higher number of fertile age survivors to repopulate the city.
|
|
James Cook's third voyage was the first to make landfall on Hawaiʻi island, in 1778, and following adventures along the North American west coast Cook returned to the island in 1779. On his second visit John Ledyard, a corporal of the Royal Marines aboard , proposed and receiving approval for an expedition to summit Mauna Loa to learn "about that part of the island, particularly the peak, the tip of which is generally covered with snow, and had excited great curiosity." Using a compass, Ledyard and small group of ships' mates and native attendants attempted to make a direct course for the summit. However, on the second day of traveling the route became steeper, rougher, and blocked by "impenetrable thickets," and the group was forced to abandon their attempt and return to Kealakekua Bay, reckoning they had "penetrated 24 miles and we suppose [were] within 11 miles of the peak"; in reality, Mokuʻāweoweo lies only east of the bay, a severe overestimation on Ledyard's part.
|
|
" Michiko Kakutani, the principal book critic of The New York Times, called the novel "[w]illfully sensationalistic and deliberately repellent" and went on to question the "perversity" of the French literary establishment for praising the novel. In a reply to Kakutani, writer and novelist Michael Korda wrote, "You want to read about Hell, here it is. If you don’t have the strength to read it, tough shit. It’s a dreadful, compelling, brilliantly researched, and imagined masterpiece, a terrifying literary achievement, and perhaps the first work of fiction to come out of the Holocaust that places us in its very heart, and keeps us there." Writing for Time, American writer and journalist Lev Grossman compared it to Roberto Bolaño's 2666, similar in "their seriousness of purpose, their wild overestimation of the reader's attention span and their interest in physical violence that makes Saw look like Dora the Explorer," but added that while far from perfect, The Kindly Ones "is unmistakably the work of a profoundly gifted writer, if not an especially disciplined one.
|
|
Percival Lowell, originator of the Planet X hypothesis Following the discovery of the planet Neptune in 1846, there was considerable speculation that another planet might exist beyond its orbit. The search began in the mid-19th century and continued at the start of the 20th with Percival Lowell's quest for Planet X. Lowell proposed the Planet X hypothesis to explain apparent discrepancies in the orbits of the giant planets, particularly Uranus and Neptune, speculating that the gravity of a large unseen ninth planet could have perturbed Uranus enough to account for the irregularities.Tombaugh (1946), p. 73. Clyde Tombaugh's discovery of Pluto in 1930 appeared to validate Lowell's hypothesis, and Pluto was officially named the ninth planet. In 1978, Pluto was conclusively determined to be too small for its gravity to affect the giant planets, resulting in a brief search for a tenth planet. The search was largely abandoned in the early 1990s, when a study of measurements made by the Voyager 2 spacecraft found that the irregularities observed in Uranus's orbit were due to a slight overestimation of Neptune's mass.
|
|