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112 Sentences With "reproduction number"

How to use reproduction number in a sentence? Find typical usage patterns (collocations)/phrases/context for "reproduction number" and check conjugation/comparative form for "reproduction number". Mastering all the usages of "reproduction number" from sentence examples published by news publications.

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If you multiply them together, you get the reproduction number.
The basic reproduction number for H.I.V. is between 2 and 5.
The only hope we have is to lower the reproduction number.
The effective reproduction number isn't set in stone — it's vulnerable to interventions.
To do that, they use the basic reproduction number, called the "R naught," or R8753.
Epidemiologists call it the "basic reproduction number," and it indicates how contagious a virus is.
To do that, they use the basic reproduction number, called the "R naught," or R0.
If you imagine you've got a reproduction number of two, each person's infecting two others, on average.
A study in the Journal of Travel Medicine estimated that the reproduction number was slightly higher: around 3.3.
The restrictions worked because they reduced the virus' reproduction number -- the average number of people each infected person passes the virus on to.
Read's models estimate that the number of people one victim can infect—known as the virus's reproduction number—is between 3.6 and 4.0.
"For a virus to go all Planet of the Apes on humans, it's likely [to] need a high basic reproduction number," Youde told Gizmodo.
Any potential answer hinges on one of the most important numbers in epidemiology — the basic reproduction number, also known as R0 (pronounced R-naught).
It's too early to be certain, but most scientists put the reproduction number somewhere between two and three when no restrictions are in place.
TRANSMISSION RATES The transmission and severity of an outbreak is largely determined by two parameters: the basic reproduction number (R0) and the case fatality rate (CFR).
But the basic reproduction number for dengue fever, a disease caused by a virus similar to Zika that is spread almost exclusively through mosquito bites, is around 3.
Calculating how the new coronavirus will continue to spread involves one of the most important numbers in epidemiology: the basic reproduction number, also known as R0 (pronounced R-naught).
The Czech Republic released preliminary data on Tuesday suggesting that the initial reproduction number there dropped from 2.64 to 1.84 after restrictions on movement were imposed two weeks ago.
The basic reproduction number is cause for concern — a recent study of Zika's spread in Colombia estimated a range between 3 and 6.6, and other studies have produced similar results.
The reproduction number -- showing the average number of people each infected person passes the virus on to -- is a key metric when looking at the success of the restrictive measures.
The reproduction number for the flu of 260 was about the same as that of the new coronavirus, perhaps higher, but that was before modern treatments and vaccines were available.
The reproduction number for the flu of 1918 was about the same as that of the new coronavirus, perhaps higher, but that was before modern treatments and vaccines were available.
One statistic epidemiologists use to measure the potential spread of an infectious disease is a value called the basic reproduction number — an estimate of how many people you are likely to infect if you get sick.
The basic reproduction number for the seasonal influenza virus is estimated to be around 1.3, which means that in the week that you have the flu, statistically, you are likely to infect one or two people.
"As we go forward, given that global health organizations are on high alert and really trying to prevent and detect cases when they occur, we would expect that the reproduction number will be lower," she said.
A recent study of nearly 140 hospitalized patients in Wuhan estimated that the basic reproduction number for the coronavirus is 2.2, meaning that patients have been spreading the virus to more than two other people, on average.
The Czech Ministry of Health released preliminary data on Tuesday that suggest that while the initial reproduction number in the Czech Republic stood at 2.64, this went down to 1.84 after March 12, when movement restrictions came into place.
The basic reproduction number (R_0) of the virus has been estimated to be around 5.7. This means each infection from the virus is expected to result in 5.7 new infections when no members of the community are immune and no preventive measures are taken. The reproduction number may be higher in densely populated conditions such as those found on cruise ships.
One way to measure the outbreak is via the basic reproduction number, R0, a statistical measure of the average number of people expected to be infected by one person with a disease. If the basic reproduction number is less than 1, the infection dies out; if it is greater than 1, the infection continues to spread—with exponential growth in the number of cases. A March 2019 paper by Tariq et al. suggested that R0 was oscillating around 0.9.
Hutchins Hapgood in 1933. Photograph by Carl Van Vechten Library of Congress, Prints & Photographs Division, Carl Van Vechten Collection, [reproduction number LC-USZ62-132955] Hutchins Harry Hapgood (May 21, 1869, Chicago – November 19, 1944, Provincetown, Massachusetts) was an American journalist, author and anarchist.
If the infectious period is long, then the measure of secondary infections (represented by the basic reproduction number, R0) will generally by larger, regardless of the infectiousness of the disease. For example, even though HIV/AIDS has a very low transmission potential per sexual act, its basic reproduction number is still very high because of its unusually long infectious period spanning many years. From the viewpoint of controlling an epidemic, the goal is to reduce the effective infectious period either by treatment or by isolating the patient from the community. Sometimes a treatment can paradoxically increase the effective infectious period by preventing death through supportive care and thereby increasing the probability of infection of other individuals.
Model-based simulations suggest that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t was lower than 1.0 in July and August.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
Model-based simulations suggest that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been stable below 1.0 since the second half of May.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle- income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
The basic reproduction number R0 is the average number of secondary infections caused by a typical infective person in a totally susceptible population. The basic reproductive number is found by multiplying the average number of contacts by the average probability that a susceptible individual will become infected, which is called the shedding potential.
Model-based simulations suggest that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t exceeded 1.0 in June but was stable around 1.0 in July, August and September.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
There were 1028 new cases in August, raising the total number of confirmed cases to 10097. The death toll rose to 260. There were 706 active cases at the end of the month. Model-based simulations indicate that in August and September the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t was lower than 1.
In April 2009, genetic analysis of 11 sequences of swine-origin H1N1 influenza suggested that the common ancestor existed at or before 12 January 2009. This finding aided in making an early estimate of the basic reproduction number R_0 of the pandemic. Similarly, genetic analysis of sequences isolated from within an individual can be used to determine the individual's infection time.
In June there were 24 confirmed cases, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 49. The death toll rose to 2. By the end of the month 27 patients had recovered, leaving 20 active cases. Model-based simulations indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t was above 1.0 in June and July.
The number of recovered patients increased to 454, leaving 361 active cases at the end of the month. Model-based simulations suggest that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t was below 1.0 in May.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
In June there were 1013 new cases, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 2007. The death toll rose by 28 to 38. The number of recovered patients increased to 279, leaving 1690 active cases at the end of the month. Model-based simulations indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been stable below 1.0 since June.
The number of recovered patients grew by 157 to 209, leaving 591 active cases at the end of the month. Model-based simulations indicate that since early June, the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been fluctuating around 1.2.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
Another strategy, suppression, requires more extreme long-term non-pharmaceutical interventions so as to reverse the pandemic by reducing the basic reproduction number to less than1. The suppression strategy, which includes stringent population-wide social distancing, home isolation of cases, and household quarantine, was undertaken by China during the COVID-19 pandemic where entire cities were placed under lockdown, but such strategy carries with it considerable social and economic costs.
The primary route of transmission for SARS-CoV is contact of the mucous membranes with respiratory droplets or fomites. While diarrhea is common in people with SARS, the fecal–oral route does not appear to be a common mode of transmission. The basic reproduction number of SARS- CoV, R0, ranges from 2 to 4 depending on different analyses. Control measures introduced in April 2003 reduced the R to 0.4.
In general, group A coxsackieviruses tend to infect the skin and mucous membranes, causing herpangina; acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis; and hand, foot, and mouth (HFM) disease. Both group A and group B coxsackieviruses can cause nonspecific febrile illnesses, rashes, upper respiratory tract disease, and aseptic meningitis. The basic reproduction number (R0) for Coxsackievirus A16 (Cox A16) was estimated to a median of 2.50 with an interquartile range of 1.96 to 3.67.
The COVID-19 pandemic in Djibouti is part of the worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 () caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (). The virus spread to Djibouti in March 2020. It is a novel infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (). Model-based simulations for Djibouti indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been stable around 1.0 since August 2020.
The Youyang Gu COVID-19 model (sometimes abbreviated YYG) is a computer software disease model for COVID-19 produced by independent data scientist Youyang Gu. The model is unique in applying machine learning to derive the basic reproduction number () from data published by Johns Hopkins University's Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE), and it seeks to minimize the error between its projections and CSSE data on the number of United States COVID-19 deaths.
Three patients recovered in June, raising the total number of recovered patients to 4. The remaining 23 cases were still active at the end of June. Model-based simulations indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t was above 1.0 in June and July.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
Food service workers were found to have likely been the main early route of spread. 46.5% of the infected passengers and crew members had no symptoms at the time of testing. The ship outbreak had a basic reproduction number of 14.8; much higher than the usual 2–4. Calculations indicate that an early evacuation could have reduced the case number to just 76 cases, and that the applied quarantine reduced the case number by about 2300 cases.
AIDS cases in Africa are increasing, so the disease is not in an endemic steady state. The spread of AIDS in Africa could be correctly called an epidemic, however. For an infection that relies on person-to-person transmission to be endemic, each person who becomes infected with the disease must pass it on to one other person on average. Assuming a completely susceptible population, that means that the basic reproduction number (R0) of the infection must equal one.
Model-based simulations indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t exceeded 1.0 until mid-April but has been below 1.0 since then.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London. In April there were 685 new cases, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 719. The death toll rose by 29 to 32.
A design is said to be balanced (up to t) if all t-subsets of the original set occur in equally many (i.e., λ) blocks. When t is unspecified, it can usually be assumed to be 2, which means that each pair of elements is found in the same number of blocks and the design is pairwise balanced. For t=1, each element occurs in the same number of blocks (the reproduction number, denoted r) and the design is said to be regular.
Notice that this relation means that for a disease to be in the endemic steady state, the higher the basic reproduction number, the lower the proportion of the population susceptible must be, and vice versa. This expression has limitations concerning the susceptibility proportion, e.g. the R0 equals 0.5 implicates S has to be 2, however this proportion exceeds to population size. Assume the rectangular stationary age distribution and let also the ages of infection have the same distribution for each birth year.
The generation time for influenza (the time from one infection to the next) is very short (only 2 days). This explains why influenza epidemics start and finish in a short time scale of only a few months. From a public health point of view, flu epidemics spread rapidly and are very difficult to control. Most influenza virus strains are not very infectious and each infected individual will only go on to infect one or two other individuals (the basic reproduction number for influenza is generally around 1.4).
Human-to-human transmission (HHT) is a particularly problematic epidemiologic vector, especially in case the disease is borne by individuals known as superspreaders. In these cases, the basic reproduction number of the virus, which is the average number of additional people that a single case will infect without any preventative measures, can be as high as 3.9. Interhuman transmission is a synonym for HHT. The World Health Organization designation of a pandemic hinges on the demonstrable fact that there is sustained HHT in two regions of the world.
In March and April 2020, the COVID-19 transmission rate in Bangladesh was around 2, which meant that two people could be infected with the virus from one person. However, the transmission rate of COVID-19 in the country fell as time passed. As of 26 June, the transmission rate of the coronavirus disease in the country is 1.05, which is a very good sign. Model-based simulations suggest that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number has been stable around 1.0 since June 2020.
The basic reproduction number (R_0) is a fundamental number in the study of how infectious diseases spread. If one infectious person is put into a population of completely susceptible people, then R_0 is the average number of people that one typical infectious person will infect. The generation time of an infection is the time, t_G, from one person becoming infected to the next person becoming infected. In a heterogeneous population, the next generation matrix defines how many people in the population will become infected after time t_G has passed.
On 2 May, there were 601 confirmed cases and 28 deaths, although it was reported that the actual number of deaths may be significantly higher. Model-based simulations indicate that from early May on, the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t was below 1.0 in May and June.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London. There were 1375 new cases in May, raising the total number of confirmed cases to 1976.
Spread of the H1N1 virus is thought to occur in the same way that seasonal flu spreads. Flu viruses are spread mainly from person to person through coughing or sneezing by people with influenza. Sometimes people may become infected by touching something—such as a surface or object—with flu viruses on it and then touching their face. The basic reproduction number (the average number of other individuals whom each infected individual will infect, in a population which has no immunity to the disease) for the 2009 novel H1N1 is estimated to be 1.75.
The basic reproduction number of severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) was between 2.2 and 3.7, but super-spreading events (highly efficient transmission of the virus) occurred in some hospital settings. McGeer believes that Toronto eliminated SARS by isolating people who were suffering or at risk from the virus, preventing its spread. A study the critical care units of Toronto's hospitals found that the consistent use of N95 masks was an effective way to protect nurses. During the 2013 MERS outbreak, McGeer visited Saudi Arabia with the World Health Organization to help to track the spread of the virus.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. On 28 July it was reported that the reproduction number R for Greece was stable at 0.4, but reportedly R rose to 1.0 in early August.
On 12 January, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, who was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality rate for COVID-19 has been much lower than the 2002–2004 SARS outbreak, but transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Argentina indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R exceeded 1.0 from April to July 2020, after which it diminished to around 1.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Afghanistan indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t is below 1.0 since mid-June 2020, having exceeded 1.0 until mid-June.
Dr. Cheever determines the virus too virulent to be researched at multiple labs and restricts all work to one government site. Dr. Hextall orders University of California researcher Dr. Ian Sussman to destroy his samples. Believing he is close to finding a viable cell culture, Sussman violates Cheever's order and eventually identifies a usable MEV-1 cell culture using bat cells, from which Hextall develops a vaccine. Other scientists determine the virus is spread by respiratory droplets and fomites, with a basic reproduction number of four when the virus mutates; they project that 1 in 12 of the world population will be infected, with a 25–30% mortality rate.
Zika is primarily spread by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, and can also be transmitted through sexual contact or blood transfusions. The basic reproduction number (R0, a measure of transmissibility) of Zika virus has been estimated to be between 1.4 and 6.6 . In 2015, news reports drew attention to the rapid spread of Zika in Latin America and the Caribbean. At that time, the Pan American Health Organization published a list of countries and territories that experienced "local Zika virus transmission" comprising Barbados, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Martinique, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Puerto Rico, Saint Martin, Suriname, and Venezuela.
Mortality is measured by number of deaths in a population per the proportion of the population per unit of time. The basic reproduction number, R0, is a statistical measure of the average number of people expected to be infected by one person who has a disease. If the rate is less than 1, the infection dies out; if it is greater than 1, the infection continues to spread—with exponential growth in the number of cases. In September 2014, the estimated R0 were 1.71 (95% CI, 1.44 to 2.01) for Guinea, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.72 to 1.94) for Liberia, and 2.02 (95% CI, 1.79 to 2.26) for Sierra Leone.
An infectious disease is said to be endemic when it can be sustained in a population without the need for external inputs. This means that, on average, each infected person is infecting exactly one other person (any more and the number of people infected will grow exponentially and there will be an epidemic, any less and the disease will die out). In mathematical terms, that is: : \ R_0 S \ = 1. The basic reproduction number (R0) of the disease, assuming everyone is susceptible, multiplied by the proportion of the population that is actually susceptible (S) must be one (since those who are not susceptible do not feature in our calculations as they cannot contract the disease).
On 12 May, the Senate of Berlin agreed to a traffic light-type warning system for a re- tightening of coronavirus restrictions. Besides the number of new infections per 100,000 residents in the preceding seven days, which had been agreed upon earlier by the federal government with the German states, it also considers the development of the reproduction number R and the capacity of intensive- care hospital beds. On 13 May, Interior Minister Horst Seehofer announced that border controls with several neighbouring countries would be eased starting 15 May. On that day, controls at the border with Luxembourg would be scrapped, and the goal would be to have free travel to Austria, France, and Switzerland starting 15 June.
The effectiveness can also be determined by fatality rate, which is 5.38% and the reproduction number is 0.6398; with those figures as of April 10, the study declared that the ECQ has been effective. Furthermore, the study provided a matrix for the LGUs that can be the basis of their decision on what quarantine methods they can use after the supposed end of the Luzon ECQ on April 30 for continued effectiveness. There are four proposed courses of action namely no quarantine, general community quarantine, enhanced community quarantine, and extreme enhanced community quarantine that would be dependent on the probability of outbreak and the ratio of confirmed cases to estimated outbreak threshold.
Ryan Meili, leader of the opposition Saskatchewan NDP, called for more action to be taken in the northern region, including "mobiliz[ing] the resources necessary to test everyone in La Loche and Clearwater River Dene Nation". Tracy Zambory, head of the Saskatchewan Union of Nurses, similarly argued that "we're expecting a population that hasn't gotten much help in the past to suddenly understand and follow all these rules". The SHA released updated modelling on April 28, estimating an effective reproduction number of 0.7 per-case, with the estimated total cases reduced to 254,756, and 3,050 deaths. The next day, Saskatchewan announced 17 new cases, and one new death in the Far North region.
British Transport Secretary Grant Shapps announced that Andorra, the Bahamas and Belgium will be removed from the government's list of safe countries to travel to due to rising rates of infection, therefore requiring all travellers returning to the UK to self-isolate for 14 days. Shapps also announced that travellers returning from Brunei and Malaysia would no longer have to self-isolate. First Minister of Northern Ireland Arlene Foster delayed the reopening of pubs to an 'indicative date' of September 1 and announced that face masks will be compulsory in shops from August 10, as a result of the basic reproduction number rising above 1. Foster also confirmed that schools in Northern Ireland will fully reopen after the summer break at the start of September.
The basic reproduction number (denoted by R0) is a measure of how transferable a disease is. It is the average number of people that a single infectious person will infect over the course of their infection. This quantity determines whether the infection will spread exponentially, die out, or remain constant: if R0 > 1, then each person on average infects more than one other person so the disease will spread; if R0 < 1, then each person infects fewer than one person on average so the disease will die out; and if R0 = 1, then each person will infect on average exactly one other person, so the disease will become endemic: it will move throughout the population but not increase or decrease.
May Day protest in Kreuzberg in 2020 In the public debate on the question of whether and when the social distancing measures enacted in the previous weeks could be relaxed, the effective reproduction number R continued to play a major role. In its daily bulletins of 26–28 April, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) estimated the value of R as 0.9, 1.0, and 0.9 respectively; it had been as low as 0.7 in mid-April. On 28 April, RKI president Wieler clarified that the 27 April value had been rounded up from a value of 0.96. The respective upper end-points of the confidence intervals (at the 95 per cent level) for the estimates of R were 1.1, 1.1, and 1.0.
On 12 January, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, who had initially come to the attention of the WHO on 31 December 2019. Unlike SARS of 2003, the case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Algeria suggest that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been stable around 1.0 since June 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Egypt indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t was around 1.0 in August and early September 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle- income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Morocco suggest that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been stable around 1.0 since mid-August 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model- based simulations for Cameroon indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been stable below 1.0 since June 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle- income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model- based simulations for Tunisia indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been stable around 1.5 in July and August.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model- based simulations for Senegal suggest that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been stable below 1.0 since August 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle- income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Angola indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t exceeded 1.0 until July 2020 but has since diminished to around 1.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Benin suggest that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been stable below 1.0 since July 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Burundi indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been stable below 1.0 since mid-April 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model- based simulations for Cape Verde suggest that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been fluctuating around 1.0 since June 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model- based simulation for the Central African Republic indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t was stable below 1.0 in July and August 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Equatorial Guinea suggest that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been stable below 1.0 since August 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Eswatini suggest that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been lower than 1.0 since August 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle- income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model- based simulations for Guinea suggest that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number was around 1.0 in July and August 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Mali suggest that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been stable around 1.0 since August 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Malawi indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been stable below 1.0 since August 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Madagascar indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been stable below 1.0 since the second half of July 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Gabon show that the 95% confidence interval for the time- varying reproduction number was below 1.0 in July and August 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model- based simulations for Guinea-Bissau suggest that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been stable around 1.0 since May 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Mauritania indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been stable below 1.0 since June 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle- income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
Maputo's Central Market On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model- based simulations for Mozambique indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been stable around 1.3 since August 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Rwanda indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been around 1.1 since early August.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Zambia suggest that the 95% confidence interval for the time- varying reproduction number R t has been below 1.0 since the second half of July 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan, Hubei, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model- based simulations for the Republic of the Congo suggest that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t has been stable around 1.0 since June 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model- based simulations for the Comoros indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number Rt has been stable below 1.0 since July 2020.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations suggest that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t was lower than 1.0 in July and August 2020, having exceeded 1.0 in May and early June.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Togo indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time- varying reproduction number Rt was below 1.0 in the second half of April and in May 2020 but has since increased to above 1.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model- based simulations for Côte d'Ivoire point to a 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t below 1.0 in July and August 2020, having previously fluctuated around 1.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model- based simulations for Burkina Faso indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t was below 1.0 from April to June but has since increased to around 1.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Botswana indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number Rt was below 1.0 in April and the first part of May but has since increased to around 1.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Kenya indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t was higher than 1.0 from April to July 2020 but has since dropped below 1.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Ethiopia indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t was higher than 1.0 until the end of July 2020, while in August and September it was around 1.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number Rt of São Tomé and Príncipe was below 1.0 in May and June 2020 but has since increased to around 1.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
On 12 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, which was reported to the WHO on 31 December 2019. The case fatality ratio for COVID-19 has been much lower than SARS of 2003, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll. Model-based simulations for Chad indicate that the 95% confidence interval for the time-varying reproduction number R t for Chad was stable below 1.0 in May and June but increased to around 1.0 in July and August.Future scenarios of the healthcare burden of COVID-19 in low- or middle-income countries, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London.
The declaration obligates $628.8 million in public assistance grants from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). alt=Texas National Guard personnel setting up a mobile testing station March 26: The cumulative number of confirmed cases in Texas reported by the DSHS surpasses 1,000. An executive order issued by Abbott mandates visitors flying to Texas from Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, and New Orleans, Louisiana, to self-quarantine for 14 days. Modelling from a team of researchers at the University of Texas at Austin was presented to the government of Austin. The model projected epidemiological outcomes of school closures and varying degrees of social distancing compliance out to August 17, starting with a basic reproduction number of 2.2, an average incubation period of 7.1 days, a doubling time of 4 days, and the initial prevalence of COVID-19 in the region.
In a population with some immune individuals, the basic reproduction number multiplied by the proportion of susceptible individuals in the population (S) must be one. This takes account of the probability of each individual to whom the disease may be transmitted being susceptible to it, effectively discounting the immune sector of the population. So, for a disease to be in an endemic steady state it is: : R_0 \times S = 1 In this way, the infection neither dies out nor does the number of infected people increase exponentially but the infection is said to be in an endemic steady state. An infection that starts as an epidemic will eventually either die out (with the possibility of it resurging in a theoretically predictable cyclical manner) or reach the endemic steady state, depending on a number of factors, including the virulence of the disease and its mode of transmission.
From 3 April to 11 April, the number of new cases and deaths in general had a decreasing trend. On 3April, 950 deaths were reported, the highest number for a single country over a 24-hour interval, on the same day, estimates for the basic reproduction number of the virus indicated a number below 1.0 for the first time, meaning that each case was, on average, infecting less than one other person. On 4, 5, and 6April, consecutive decreases in number of new cases and deaths were reported, including 637 new deaths on 6April, the lowest figure in ten days. On 10 April, the number of confirmed deaths dropped to 605, and then on 11 April to 510, the lowest figure in more than a month; the number of confirmed cases increased by only 3%, the lowest amount since the Ministry of Health began collecting data.
Her dissertation ended in policy recommendations for those working in public health to improve access to infection case data, so that forecasters can better characterize disease transmission, and to think about the basic reproduction number of an infectious disease as a mean of a random variable. While at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Majumder joined HealthMap, a team of researchers, epidemiologists, and software developers at Boston Children's Hospital that utilizes freely available electronic data to perform real-time disease outbreak monitoring and surveillance. There, she used local news reports to track epidemics such as measles and mumps and modeling the effects of vaccination rates on their spread, using a combination of mathematical modeling and surveillance data. In 2015, she published a report that found that linked the ongoing measles outbreak in Anaheim, California, which started some time in December 2014, to a lack of vaccination.
On January 20, 2020, Feigl-Ding went viral on micro blogging Twitter after expressing in vocal terms his worries relative to the 2019–20 Wuhan coronavirus outbreak virus' basic reproduction number (R0) of up to 3.8. Feigl-Ding compared the virus pandemic potential to the 1918 influenza pandemic which has an estimated R0 of 1.8 and which killed ~50 million people out of 2 billion, and called for WHO and CDC to preemptively declare public health emergency and monitor aggressively the situation. With the thread going viral, Feigl-Ding's appeals were criticized by his epidemiologist peers as alarmist and based on anecdotal data, by journalists as misleading and misinforming the public, and his announcements were reused to advance conspiracy theories about the virus. While Feigl-Ding deleted the tweets, the rapid development of the epidemic, first in China in January, then in Europe in February–March and in the United States in March, together with more studies on the virus, turned the perceptions of Feigl-Ding into that of an early messenger.
She produced one of the early estimates of the number of new infections caused by each infected person, if no measures were taken to control the spread of the disease; this value is known as the basic reproduction number, or R0. The analysis utilized publicly available data from cases of the infection in Wuhan, China between December 1, 2019 and January 26, 2020 and estimated the R0 is somewhere between 2.0 and 3.1, making the novel coronavirus more contagious that the seasonal flu. She has also stressed the need for more clarity around coronavirus statistics, with a focus on reports around the case fatality rate of the disease, which can be misleading. She notes that in order to get an accurate view of COVID-19's fatality, we must first know how many people have actually be infected—a number that is unclear due to limited COVID-19 testing and the need to survey populations for who may have antibodies for the virus, but only experienced a mild infection.

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