Donald Trump has fashioned his worldview by the representativeness heuristic.
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I make no claims about the representativeness of this sample.
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This tends to increase the demographic representativeness of many big election nights.
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Even when those heroes are not historical people, they carry the burden of representativeness.
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There is a high probability it will no longer pass regulatory tests of representativeness.
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But the non-representativeness of American institutions, particularly the Senate and Electoral College, favor Republicans.
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That doesn't mean it won't pass, which just underscores the non-representativeness of our current government.
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The online firms, scorned a decade ago, have developed techniques to improve the representativeness of their samples.
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Our poll reached 1,000 Americans, and the results were weighted by race, age, gender, education, and 2016 presidential vote to enhance their representativeness.
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Another is "representativeness," which leads people to see cause and effect — to see a "narrative" — where they should instead accept uncertainty or randomness.
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" Said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang, "Since this meeting does not have legitimacy or representativeness, China has opposed the meeting from the very beginning.
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A multimember-district system was established after World War II. By giving even small parties a chance of getting elected, it could have encouraged proportionality and representativeness.
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The second setup is what's known as the "representativeness" heuristic: If a store looks like a place where the best people shop, buyers will assume it is trustworthy.
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But our study suggests that the Supreme Court's ideological representativeness has been a result more of chance than of any fundamental tendency of the court or its members.
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In fact, the decision was a sign of weakness — of Mr. Abe's political weakness and also, more problematically for the country, of a crisis of representativeness in Japanese politics.
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Eventually, frustration led to countrywide protests between 2016 and 2018, during which Oromo youth in particular blamed the government for a lack of genuine representativeness, land grabbing and repression.
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"It has no reflection of representativeness by a long, long shot," said Mr. Kapur, who is an author of a coming book about Indian immigrants' success in the United States.
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"The quality, capture rate, the representativeness of the data and accuracy of prediction are only some of the problems," said Seth Fischer, founder of Hong Kong-based hedge fund Oasis Capital.
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Truly improving the representativeness of Congress requires increasing not just the number of women in Congress, but the diversity of women's experiences brought to bear on agenda-setting and decision-making.
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I'm almost finishing 13 Reasons Why (I'm on tape 6), and I'm so happy that this show has asian representativeness, and not just that, but lesbian Asian representation, thanks do [sic] much!
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Professor Gennaioli and Professor Shleifer stress that people have what they call "diagnostic beliefs," a concept related to the "representativeness heuristic" described in 1974 by the psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.
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The bigger danger to the needle is representativeness: the possibility that the reported results are particularly good for one candidate, even after considering the political and demographic characteristics of the reported areas.
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There really are no limits this workplace fantasy can't go—and surveys have measured (with varying degrees of representativeness) the amount of influence these porn cliches wields on the perceived 'sexiness' of a profession.
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The street protests that have convulsed Hong Kong are redefining the meaning of these elections throughout the territory: Calls for more representativeness and government accountability have become paramount even in the smallest and most rural communities.
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For example, Affluence and Influence finds that the nadir of representativeness was the mid-1960s, when Medicare, the war on poverty, and the Voting Rights Act were enacted; and the peak was George W. Bush's first term.
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It was carried out by Change Research through an online survey March 227-21 of 243,246 likely 224 voters in the US, corrected for representativeness, with a margin of error of approximately plus or minus 219 percent.
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There are many technical aspects about this process that the Chilean National Congress and civil society have yet to iron out, like the size of the constitutional assembly, its representativeness and how indigenous populations will be accounted for.
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Even taking into account that capital jury selection decreases representativeness, capital juries are more likely to include people from all walks of life than professional judges, who tend to reflect an elite, predominantly white, and largely male slice of the community.
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One clear issue is representativeness — they sample only a single point, while Hurricane Hunters can get a cross-section of the storm's winds along their flight path using flight-level winds and data from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (S.F.M.R.).
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" For the authors, "the movement to push aside intermediaries, such as the smoke-filled rooms where party elders brokered nominations and the closed committee meetings where members of Congress dickered, has not produced greater public confidence in the government's effectiveness or representativeness.
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In other words, introducing policy that is more inclusive of women in public office is not only a question of representativeness akin to a democratic political system like the U.S. but it is also a means to diversify policy and expand women's perspectives.
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Giving local county boards more leeway to open additional voting sites can be helpful to ensuring that highly populated counties are adequately served, but obstacles such as inequities in the allocation of statewide resources or the lack of representativeness of some counties' elected officials loom large.
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Snap judgement of whether novel object fits an existing category The representativeness heuristic is seen when people use categories, for example when deciding whether or not a person is a criminal. An individual thing has a high representativeness for a category if it is very similar to a prototype of that category. When people categorise things on the basis of representativeness, they are using the representativeness heuristic. "Representative" is here meant in two different senses: the prototype used for comparison is representative of its category, and representativeness is also a relation between that prototype and the thing being categorised.
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Use of the representativeness heuristic can be seen in even simpler beliefs, such as the belief that eating fatty foods makes one fat. Even physicians may be swayed by the representativeness heuristic when judging similarity, in diagnoses, for example. The researcher found that clinicians use the representativeness heuristic in making diagnoses by judging how similar patients are to the stereotypical or prototypical patient with that disorder.
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Certain factors of the judgment or decision to be made make the use of the representativeness heuristic more likely.
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Some of heuristics are representativeness, anchoring and adjustments, familiarity, overconfidence, regret aversion, conservatism, mental accounting, availability, ambiguity aversion and effect.
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Among these standards the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) lists the most common as being Impartiality, Equality, Representativeness, Non-Discrimination and Transparency.
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Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky explained this kind of misprediction as being caused by the representativeness heuristic (which itself they also first proposed).
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The Browne Review has been the subject of several criticisms related to its perceived lack of independence, lack of Parliamentary scrutiny and lack of representativeness.
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The optimistic bias is possibly also influenced by three cognitive mechanisms that guide judgments and decision-making processes: the representativeness heuristic, singular target focus, and interpersonal distance.
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Over the years, the association has faced many criticisms of its representativeness of the Italian population and about its points of view on sexuality, homosexuality and censorship.
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When people rely on representativeness to make judgments, they are likely to judge wrongly because the fact that something is more representative does not actually make it more likely. The representativeness heuristic is simply described as assessing similarity of objects and organizing them based around the category prototype (e.g., like goes with like, and causes and effects should resemble each other). This heuristic is used because it is an easy computation.
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A small sample which appears randomly distributed would reinforce the belief, under the assumption of local representativeness, that the population is randomly distributed. Conversely, a small sample with a skewed distribution would weaken this belief. If a coin toss is repeated several times and the majority of the results consists of "heads", the assumption of local representativeness will cause the observer to believe the coin is biased toward "heads".
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21 Some dismiss so-called "scientific management" or Taylorism as pseudoscience. For example: Others are critical of the representativeness of the workers Taylor selected to take his measurements.
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The use of virtual networks in this example of hard to reach population, increased the number of participating subjects and as a consequence, improved the representativeness of results of the study.
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The number and type of test items written is determined by the grade-level content standards. Content validity is determined by the representativeness of the items included on the final test.
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The representativeness heuristic is also an explanation of how people judge cause and effect: when they make these judgements on the basis of similarity, they are also said to be using the representativeness heuristic. This can lead to a bias, incorrectly finding causal relationships between things that resemble one another and missing them when the cause and effect are very different. Examples of this include both the belief that "emotionally relevant events ought to have emotionally relevant causes", and magical associative thinking.
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Irregularity and local representativeness affect judgments of randomness. Things that do not appear to have any logical sequence are regarded as representative of randomness and thus more likely to occur. For example, THTHTH as a series of coin tosses would not be considered representative of randomly generated coin tosses as it is too well ordered. Local representativeness is an assumption wherein people rely on the law of small numbers, whereby small samples are perceived to represent their population to the same extent as large samples .
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There are seven vital characteristics for benchmarks. These key properties are: # Relevance: Benchmarks should measure relatively vital features. # Representativeness: Benchmark performance metrics should be broadly accepted by industry and academia. # Equity: All systems should be fairly compared.
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Zillmann, D., Gibson, R., Sundar, S.S., & Perkins, J.W. (1996). Effects of exemplification in news reports on the perception of social issues. Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly, 73, 2, 427. The representativeness heuristic is a special case of availability.
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Significance assessment typically includes consideration of the rarity, representativeness, and communicative power of assets and their values. These are then managed in order to sustain and valorize that significance. Engagement with the economic value of heritage may help promote its preservation.
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Snap judgement of whether novel object fits an existing category When judging the representativeness of a new stimulus/event, people usually pay attention to the degree of similarity between the stimulus/event and a standard/process. It is also important that those features be salient. Nilsson, Juslin, and Olsson (2008) found this to be influenced by the exemplar account of memory (concrete examples of a category are stored in memory) so that new instances were classified as representative if highly similar to a category as well as if frequently encountered. Several examples of similarity have been described in the representativeness heuristic literature.
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In their initial research, Tversky and Kahneman proposed three heuristics—availability, representativeness, and anchoring and adjustment. Subsequent work has identified many more. Heuristics that underlie judgment are called "judgment heuristics". Another type, called "evaluation heuristics", are used to judge the desirability of possible choices.
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The voting system of its members also changed: during the 19th century, voting was reserved for a minority, and senators represented departments. Later, the secret and universal vote was established, and the representativeness of the senators, who are elected at the national level, was reformulated.
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Thousand Oaks: Sage Publications, Inc. These judgments are considered based on two cognitive devices: the availability heuristic and the representativeness heuristic. The availability heuristic tells us that judgments of social phenomena are greatly influenced by the ease with which information comes to mind.Gibson, R. & Zillmann, D. (1998).
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Employers and majority unions are permitted to conclude collective agreements that set thresholds for the acquisition of rights under sections 12 (union access to the workplace), 13 (stop-orders) and 15 (time off). This right is conferred by section 18 ("Right to establish thresholds of representativeness"), which reads as follows: > (1) An employer and a registered trade union whose members are a majority of > the employees employed by that employer in a workplace, or the parties to a > bargaining council, may conclude a collective agreement establishing a > threshold of representativeness required in respect of one or more of the > organisational rights referred to in sections 12, 13 and 15. > (2) A collective agreement concluded in terms of subsection (1) is not > binding unless the thresholds of representativeness in the collective > agreement are applied equally to any registered trade union seeking any of > the organisational rights referred to in that subsection. A threshold agreement, then, is an agreement to restrict certain rights to unions with a certain percentage of representation.
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In contrast with their appreciation for these pieces, Zambaccian and other members of Grupul celor patru expostulated the Balchik landscapes: Zambaccian remarked that his were "more like arabesques in colored tones, [...] at a time when Şirato evolved upward toward a nuanced painting of a beautiful representativeness in a luminous space".
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The sample size of related studies has generally been low, which impacts statistical robustness of findings. Another criticism is a lack of representativeness of the samples. Most of the studies were conducted in western societies. As Adams and Glenn (2005) point out, personal relationships can have various effects among different countries.
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Factors relevant in considering the representativeness of a sample include the homogeneity of the food, the relative sizes of the sample to be taken and the whole, the potential degree of variation of the parameter(s) in question through the whole, and the significance and intended use of the analytical result.
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The representativeness of the HSI can be studied by the turnover of the whole stock market and by how much its market capitalisation covers. The aggregate market value of the HSI constituent stocks is maintained at approximately 60% of the total market value. This coverage ratio compares favorably with major overseas stock indices.
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The peculiarities of the first "Russian" works of art, created by the "visiting" Greeks, included a magnitude and representativeness which demonstrated the ambitions of the young Russian state and its princely authority. Byzantine influence, however, couldn't spread quickly over the enormous territory of Rus’ lands, and their Christianization would take several centuries.
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The precision effect reflects the influence of the representativeness of digit patterns on magnitude judgments. Larger magnitudes are usually rounded and therefore have many zeros, whereas smaller magnitudes are usually expressed as precise numbers; so relying on the representativeness of digit patterns can make people incorrectly judge a price of $391,534 to be more attractive than a price of $390,000. The ease of computation effect shows that magnitude judgments are based not only on the output of a mental computation, but also on its experienced ease or difficulty. Usually it is easier to compare two dissimilar magnitudes than two similar magnitudes; overuse of this heuristic can make people incorrectly judge the difference to be larger for pairs with easier computations, e.g.
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Procedural justice also is a major factor that contributes to the expression of employee dissent. It correlates positively with managers' upward dissent. With procedural justice there is a greater deal of fairness in the workplace. There are six rules that apply to procedural justice, "Leventhal's rules", are consistence, bias suppression, accuracy, correctability, representativeness, and ethicality.
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In other demonstrations, they argued that a specific scenario seemed more likely because of representativeness, but each added detail would actually make the scenario less and less likely. In this way it could be similar to the misleading vividness or slippery slope fallacies. More recently Kahneman has argued that the conjunction fallacy is a type of extension neglect.
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Additionally, when individuals were asked to compare themselves towards friends, they chose more vulnerable friends based on the events they were looking at. Individuals generally chose a specific friend based on whether they resemble a given example, rather than just an average friend. People find examples that relate directly to what they are asked, resulting in representativeness heuristics.
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The sample is chosen from the sampling frame, which consists of a list of all members of the population of interest. The goal of a survey is not to describe the sample, but the larger population. This generalizing ability is dependent on the representativeness of the sample, as stated above. Each member of the population is termed an element.
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This is also called the core-set. These algorithms model notions like diversity, coverage, information and representativeness of the summary. Query based summarization techniques, additionally model for relevance of the summary with the query. Some techniques and algorithms which naturally model summarization problems are TextRank and PageRank, Submodular set function, Determinantal point process, maximal marginal relevance (MMR) etc.
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After this initial 1968 interview, families were interviewed each year until 1997. After 1997, the survey has been biennial, with data being collected every two years. Over time, as individuals leave their household, they are followed as they form their new residence. As time passed, the representativeness of the original sample became more and more out of line with the overall US demographic.
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Pp. 518-519 in M.J. Groom, G.K. Meffe, C. Ronald Carroll and Contributors. Principles of Conservation Biology (3rd ed.). Sunderland, MA: Sinauer. Conservation managers or scientists can use it as a basis for providing recommendations to improve the representativeness of nature reserves or the effectiveness of protected areas so that these areas provide the best value for conserving biological diversity.
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SPEC attempts to create an environment where arguments are settled by appeal to notions of technical credibility, representativeness, or the "level playing field". SPEC representatives are typically engineers with expertise in the areas being benchmarked. Benchmarks include "run rules", which describe the conditions of measurement and documentation requirements. Results that are published on SPEC's website undergo a peer review by members' performance engineers.
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Research has focused on medical beliefs. People often believe that medical symptoms should resemble their causes or treatments. For example, people have long believed that ulcers were caused by stress, due to the representativeness heuristic, when in fact bacteria cause ulcers. In a similar line of thinking, in some alternative medicine beliefs patients have been encouraged to eat organ meat that corresponds to their medical disorder.
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France came out bled of the Second World War. Through a constituent assembly, it sets up new institutions to revive the country's political activity. The representativeness of France is then extended to the Overseas territories such as the AEF, whose indigenous people have the opportunity to elect representatives. While the old colonies like the West Indies elect their deputies by universal suffrage, the AEF.
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With regard to participatory medicine, it has proven difficult to ensure the representativeness of patients. Researchers warn that there are "three different types of representation" which have "possible applications in the context of patient engagement: democratic, statistical, and symbolic." Patient participation is a generic term, and thus no list can be exhaustive; nonetheless, the following description shall subdivide it into several areas where patients and/or their advocates have a role.
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Former United States president Jimmy Carter and his Carter Center,Carter Center (2005). Observing the Venezuela Presidential Recall Referendum: Comprehensive Report. Accessed 25 January 2006. all groups which had observed the referendum, and other analysesCarter Center, 17 September 2004, Report on an Analysis of the Representativeness of the Second Audit Sample, and the Correlation between Petition Signers and the Yes Vote in the 15 August 2004 Presidential Recall Referendum in Venezuela.
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Samuel P. Huntington In his seminal 1957 book on civil-military relations, The Soldier and the State, Samuel P. Huntington described the differences between the two worlds as a contrast between the attitudes and values held by military personnel, mostly conservative, and those held by civilians, mostly liberal.William T.R. Fox. 1961. "Representativeness and Efficiency: Dual Problem of Civil-Military Relations" Political Science Quarterly 76(3): 354–366.Peter Karsten. 1971.
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Prefecture-level CDCs have been established in most provinces, and CDC staff are being appointed at lower regional levels—e.g., in counties. Comprehensive disease surveillance has been done in China through the National Disease Surveillance Points System, which was founded in 1978, primarily to report on communicable diseases, with some chronic disease responsibilities. The system was expanded and adjusted to improve its representativeness of China as a whole in 2004.
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The representativeness heuristic may lead to errors such as activating stereotypes and inaccurate judgments of others (Haselton et al., 2005, p. 726). Critics of Kahneman and Tversky, such as Gerd Gigerenzer, alternatively argued that heuristics should not lead us to conceive of human thinking as riddled with irrational cognitive biases. They should rather conceive rationality as an adaptive tool, not identical to the rules of formal logic or the probability calculus.
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The place is important in demonstrating the principal characteristics of a class of cultural or natural places/environments in New South Wales. The building is representative of a class of purpose-built hotel, specifically the hotels built for in association with the Tooth's brewers in the Federation period. This representativeness, combined with the unique, prominent location, is considered to be of the level to meet this criterion on local level.
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When people rely on representativeness, they can fall into an error which breaks a fundamental law of probability. Tversky and Kahneman gave subjects a short character sketch of a woman called Linda, describing her as, "31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations".
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The high integrity of the vehicle's fabric enhances its rarity. The Ford Mobile Canteen is an outstanding representative of its class - mobile canteens utilised in Sydney (and elsewhere) during the war years. The high integrity of its fabric enhances its representativeness. ;1891 Shand Mason Fire Engine As at 26 October 2004, the 1891 Shand Mason Steamer is a fine example of 19th century, horse-drawn, steam-powered technology, innovation and workmanship.
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Private enterprises also co-financed the study. The results of the study garnered cross-national media attention. The study aims to determine lethality of, and immunity to SARS-CoV-2; it also estimates the number of unrecorded cases. Despite the fact that sample size does not determine the representativeness of a study, principle investigator Streeck claims, they examined more persons than recommonended by the World Health Organization, the study would "thus be statistically absolutely representative".
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Flemmingen consists of a horseshoe-shaped arrangement of farms in the centre, with tangentially to this a regular array of other farms in the manner of a ribbon village. The older Slav core settlement and the more recent Flemish colony can thus be clearly identified. The very regularly structured linear village with its narrow, rectangular farmsteads still bears rich testimony as distinctive features of this settlement type and its representativeness of the inland colonization phase.
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Judgment and reasoning involve thinking through the options, making a judgment or conclusion and finally making a decision. Making judgments involves heuristics, or efficient strategies that usually lead you to the right answers. The most common heuristics used are attribute substitution, the availability heuristic, the representativeness heuristic and the anchoring heuristic – these all aid in quick reasoning and work in most situations. Heuristics allow for errors, a price paid to gain efficiency.
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That is to say, when one or more values are missing for a case, most statistical packages default to discarding any case that has a missing value, which may introduce bias or affect the representativeness of the results. Imputation preserves all cases by replacing missing data with an estimated value based on other available information. Once all missing values have been imputed, the data set can then be analysed using standard techniques for complete data.Gelman, Andrew, and Jennifer Hill.
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Unstructured interviews are a lot more time-consuming in comparison to other research methods. This is because there are typically no prearranged questions asked during an unstructured interview, and if there are questions prepared, they are open-ended questions, which can result in elaborate answers. These open-ended questions "can require the interviewer to transcribe a lengthy statement". As a result, the unstructured interview is sometimes expensive and only feasible with small samples, affecting the data's generalizability and representativeness.
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Relative neglect of sample size were obtained in a different study of statistically sophisticated psychologists. Tversky and Kahneman explained these results as being caused by the representativeness heuristic, according to which people intuitively judge samples as having similar properties to their population without taking other considerations into effect. A related bias is the clustering illusion, in which people under-expect streaks or runs in small samples. Insensitivity to sample size is a subtype of extension neglect.
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The main advantage of theoretical sampling is that it strengthens the rigour of the study if the study attempts to generate the theory in the research area. The application of theoretical sampling provides a structure to data collection as well as data analysis. It is based on the need to collect more data to examine categories and their relationships and assures that representativeness exists in the category.(Coyne, 1997) Theoretical sampling has inductive as well as deductive characteristics.
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While it is effective for some problems, this heuristic involves attending to the particular characteristics of the individual, ignoring how common those categories are in the population (called the base rates). Thus, people can overestimate the likelihood that something has a very rare property, or underestimate the likelihood of a very common property. This is called the base rate fallacy. Representativeness explains this and several other ways in which human judgments break the laws of probability.
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Things like golf scores, the earth's temperature, and chronic back pain fluctuate naturally and usually regress towards the mean. The logical flaw is to make predictions that expect exceptional results to continue as if they were average (see Representativeness heuristic). People are most likely to take action when variance is at its peak. Then after results become more normal they believe that their action was the cause of the change when in fact it was not causal.
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Other studies of willingness-to-pay to prevent harm have found a logarithmic relationship or no relationship to scope size. Daniel Kahneman explains scope neglect in terms of judgment by prototype, a refinement of the representativeness heuristic. "The story [...] probably evokes for many readers a mental representation of a prototypical incident, perhaps an image of an exhausted bird, its feathers soaked in black oil, unable to escape,"p. 212 and subjects based their willingness-to-pay mostly on that mental image.
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Psychological studies have shown that since people know that the odds of losing 6 times in a row out of 6 plays are low, they incorrectly assume that in a longer string of plays the odds are also very low. When people are asked to invent data representing 200 coin tosses, they often do not add streaks of more than 5 because they believe that these streaks are very unlikely. This intuitive belief is sometimes referred to as the representativeness heuristic.
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A French distinction – “Courrier International Prize of the Best Foreign Book” (“Prix Courrier International du Meilleur Livre Étranger” in French) – was awarded to Yu Hua in October 2008 for Brothers. The prize aims to reward a French- translated publication in the form of “an essay, a story or a novel…which would be a testimony of human condition in a given part of the world”. This award indicates that Brothers is of representativeness and the significance of showing China’s human condition throughout history.
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Waigani: National Statistics Office. In the previous period, Okuk oriented his political action towards instigating legislation, using the institutions of government, to achieve nationalistic aspirations, and returning a complex economic role to the indigenous population. In the post independence era, he concluded that the government was not moving quickly enough to bring about economic independence. In the next period, he oriented his action toward exercising the democratic means for a change of government, questioning the representativeness of the government, testing the limit of constitutional structures.
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It constitutes an important player integration and economic development, while supporting the activities and business development both regionally and in national and international markets. The structural organization of UTICA gives it both a sectoral representativeness, through the federations and national trade associations but also geographic proximity, thanks to regional and local unions. 17 sector federations, 24 regional unions, 216 local unions, trade associations and 370 national trade associations and 1700 regional trade union rooms allow the organization to cover all economic sectors of the country.
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In addition, with membership of trade unions shrinking in many industrialized states, the representativeness of these organizations even in the formal sector is often questioned. The challenge for the ILO and its constituents is to adapt the tripartite model to a globalizing world, where there are new actors operating outside national frameworks and increasingly diverse forms of voice and representation. Some measures of accommodation have been found, for instance involving cooperation with NGOs in action against child labour, and dialogue with parliamentarians and other important actors.
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Until 1867, when The First Belgrade Realka was moved in, which remained in the building until the beginning of theSecond World War, the building changed its purpose several times. It used to be occupied by the British consulate, it was used by the Serbian Gendarmerie and the Army Headquarters. Today, the Pedagogical Museum of Serbia is situated in this building. Due to its representativeness and its size, the building was in its possession for a short time and then was conceded for a public purpose.
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The defeat in the referendum on the escalator opened a difficult period for the CGIL, in a context marked by a drastic loss of representativeness of the three confederations and the birth of small autonomous trade unions. In 1986 Antonio Pizzinato, succeeded Lama, becoming the new General Secretary. However, difficulties within the CGIL were suddenly reflected in the following National Congress. Pizzinato, after only two years of secretariat, resigned from his post in favor of Bruno Trentin, former General Secretary of FIOM during the Hot Autumn.
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National Congress of Chile in Valparaíso The bicameral National Congress (Congreso Nacional) consists of the Senate (Senado) and the Chamber of Deputies (Cámara de Diputados). Chile's congressional elections replaces the binominal electoral system applicable to the parliamentary elections, by one of an inclusive proportional nature and strengthens the representativeness of the National Congress (D'Hondt System). Elections are very labor-intensive but efficient, and vote counting normally takes place the evening of the election day. One voting table, with a ballot- box each, is set up for at-most 200 names in the voting registry.
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At the end of her studies and after an apprenticeship in the Cisnal Agriculture Trade Union Federation, she became a member of the Confederal press office. After two years, she was assigned by Cisnal to lead the administrative and organizational department. From 1994 her job became more political, she played a central role in organising the transition of Cisnal to UGL, which happened during the 1996 Congress. She started reforms in terms of representativeness in the public sector and in the reorganization of social assistance services of the Trade Union.
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At the end of the World War II, France was bloodless. Through a Constituent assembly, it is putting in place new institutions to revive the political activity of the country. The representativeness of France is then extended to the Overseas territories such as the AEF, whose indigenous people have the possibility of electing representatives. While the old colonies like the West Indies elect their deputies by universal suffrage, FEA (French Equatorial Africa) and FWA (French Western Africa), have two separate electoral colleges: the first reserved for metropolitan citizens and the second for non-citizens.
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Experiments by Morewedge and colleagues (2015) have found interactive computer games and instructional videos can result in long-term debiasing at a general level. In a series of experiments, training with interactive computer games that provided players with personalized feedback, mitigating strategies, and practice, reduced six cognitive biases by more than 30% immediately and by more than 20% as long as three months later. The biased reduced were anchoring, bias blind spot, confirmation bias, fundamental attribution error, projection bias, and representativeness. Training in reference class forecasting may also improve outcomes.
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Richard E. Nisbett and colleagues suggest that representativeness explains the dilution effect, in which irrelevant information weakens the effect of a stereotype. Subjects in one study were asked whether "Paul" or "Susan" was more likely to be assertive, given no other information than their first names. They rated Paul as more assertive, apparently basing their judgment on a gender stereotype. Another group, told that Paul's and Susan's mothers each commute to work in a bank, did not show this stereotype effect; they rated Paul and Susan as equally assertive.
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Stratified random sampling designs divide the population into homogeneous strata, and an appropriate number of participants are chosen at random from each strata. Proportionate stratified sampling involves selecting participants from each strata in proportions that match the general population. This method can be used to improve the sample's representativeness of the population, by ensuring that characteristics (and their proportions) of the study sample reflect the characteristics of the population. Alternatively, disproportionate sampling can be used when the strata being compared differ greatly in size, as this allows for minorities to be sufficiently represented.
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Serra today is one of three villages (the other two being Martese and Tavolero) chosen by the Province of Teramo as sites for future touristic development. As part of this large-scale project data related to the architectural, environment, and touristic aspects of more than 50 nearby villages and locals were systematically gathered and painstakingly analyzed before deciding upon the exact locations to be developed. These three villages were chosen for their authenticity, representativeness, and overall potential with regard to the criteria that had been established by the provincial authorities.
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With such features as a secondary cooling system, a pump which can be operated as two separate units, pneumatic tyres and four wheel brakes, it was unique among NSW Fire Brigades appliances. The pump with its mass of chrome is, in both design and execution, aesthetically pleasing. This appliances integrity as a fully working appliance with a high degree of original fabric, contributes to its significance in terms of both rarity and representativeness. This appliance is unique as the only one of its type to be imported into Australia.
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Daniel Kahneman In a 1974 paper, psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman argued that a broad family of biases (systematic errors in judgment and decision) were explainable in terms of a few heuristics (information-processing shortcuts), including availability and representativeness. In 1975, psychologist Stanley Smith Stevens proposed that the strength of a stimulus (e.g., the brightness of a light, the severity of a crime) is encoded neurally in a way that is independent of modality. Kahneman and Frederick built on this idea, arguing that the target attribute and heuristic attribute could be unrelated.
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The peak–end rule is an elaboration on the snapshot model of remembered utility proposed by Barbara Fredrickson and Daniel Kahneman. This model dictates that an event is not judged by the entirety of an experience, but by prototypical moments (or snapshots) as a result of the representativeness heuristic. The remembered value of snapshots dominates the actual value of an experience. Fredrickson and Kahneman theorized that these snapshots are actually the average of the most affectively intense moment of an experience and the feeling experienced at the end.
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A recent research effort by Morewedge and colleagues (2015) found evidence for domain- general forms of debiasing. In two longitudinal experiments, debiasing training techniques featuring interactive games that elicited six cognitive biases (anchoring, bias blind spot, confirmation bias, fundamental attribution error, projection bias, and representativeness), provided participants with individualized feedback, mitigating strategies, and practice, resulted in an immediate reduction of more than 30% in commission of the biases and a long term (2 to 3-month delay) reduction of more than 20%. The instructional videos were also effective, but were less effective than the games.
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The social status of the Belgrade Cooperative dictated that the representativeness and monumentality become the only possible architectural concept. Ceremonial hall It was designed in the style of academism, with elements borrowed from both eclectic academic style, as well as contemporary Art Nouveau architecture. It was built as a monumental corner building with three wings in the floor plan at the irregular plot. The most representative part of the building is the prominent and jagged central part, where the public rooms are located, with the main facade in Karadjordjeva Street.
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Martese today is one of three villages (the other two being Serra and Tavolero) chosen by the Province of Teramo as sites for future touristic development. As part of this large- scale project, data related to the architectural, environment, and touristic aspects of more than 50 nearby villages and locals were systematically gathered and painstakingly analyzed before deciding upon the exact locations to be developed. These three villages were chosen for their authenticity, representativeness, and overall potential with regard to the criteria that had been established by the provincial authorities.
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A second step of classification is then carried out in order to categorize defects (lightning strike, oil leak, scratching, texture irregularity, etc.) versus normal elements of the aircraft (screws, rivets, pitot tubes, etc.). The recognition algorithm is based on machine learning from the annotated databases of previous flights. The effectiveness of deep learning algorithms depends on the representativeness and the quantity of examples in each class. Databases suffer from the fact that there is only a small number of defects compared to the huge amount of normal elements present on an aircraft.
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The Public Service Commission of Canada (PSC; ) is an independent government agency that safeguards merit-based hiring, non-partisanship, representativeness of Canada's diversity, and the use of both official languages (English and French) in the Canadian public service. The PSC aims to protect the integrity of hiring and promotion within the public service. As well, the Commission works to protect the political impartiality and non- partisanship of public servants. The Commission develops staffing policies and provides guidance to public service managers and recruits Canadians into the public service.
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Traditional research often points to the role of heuristics in helping people make “intuitive” decisions. Those following the heuristics-and-biases school of thought developed by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman believe that intuitive judgments are derived from an “informal and unstructured mode of reasoning” that ultimately does not include any methodical calculation. Tversky and Kahneman identify availability, representativeness, and anchoring/adjustment as three heuristics that influence many intuitive judgments made under uncertain conditions. The heuristics-and-biases approach looks at patterns of biased judgments to distinguish heuristics from normative reasoning processes.
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The Romanian Council of Ministers decided on August 29, 1931, to expel Imre, and he chose to leave for the Soviet Union. Participating in the Fifth Congress of the PCdR that took place near Moscow that year, he joined David Avramescu in criticising the gathering's lack of representativeness, only to be rebuffed by Bela Kun. At the same Congress, as CGSU delegate, he presented a report on the Romanian trade unions. Around 1935 he was living in Tiraspol, where he published pamphlets attacking the Romanian electoral system of the time.
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Although patient participation has been adopted and developed by a variety of HTA bodies around the world, there are limitations and criticisms of its use. These include concern about how and when to involve patients, (Open Access) the burden of participation for patients, representativeness of patients, the potential for conflict of interest (in relation to patient groups receiving funding from manufacturers), and lack of evaluation of patient participation. Facey et al. (2017) published the book on patient involvement in HTA to establish consistent terminology in the field and demonstrate a range of recognised approaches and methods found in published literature.
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Fischbein and Schnarch theorized that an individual's tendency to rely on the representativeness heuristic and other cognitive biases can be overcome with age. Another possible solution comes from Roney and Trick, Gestalt psychologists who suggest that the fallacy may be eliminated as a result of grouping. When a future event such as a coin toss is described as part of a sequence, no matter how arbitrarily, a person will automatically consider the event as it relates to the past events, resulting in the gambler's fallacy. When a person considers every event as independent, the fallacy can be greatly reduced.
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The psychologist Daniel Kahneman, adopting terms originally proposed by the psychologists Keith Stanovich and Richard West, has theorized that a person's decision-making is the result of an interplay between two kinds of cognitive processes: an automatic intuitive system (called "System 1") and an effortful rational system (called "System 2"). System 1 is a bottom-up, fast, and implicit system of decision-making, while system 2 is a top-down, slow, and explicit system of decision-making. System 1 includes simple heuristics in judgment and decision-making such as the affect heuristic, the availability heuristic, the familiarity heuristic, and the representativeness heuristic.
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As the building of the central and the most important postal institution in the Kingdom of Yugoslavia, the Palace of the Main Post Office is an important testimony to the development of postal services and activities, from its founding to the present. On the other hand, its striking position at the crossroads of two important city roads, is one of the most important visual benchmarks of the city center. At the same time, the monumentality of the continent and the representativeness of the external processing classify it among the major examples of academic architecture of Belgrade.
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They are also believed to have received assistance from the Chitral Scouts and the Chitral State Bodyguard's of the state of Chitral, one of the princely states of Pakistan, which had acceded to Pakistan on 6 October 1947.Martin Axmann, Back to the future: the Khanate of Kalat and the genesis of Baluch Nationalism 1915–1955 (2008), p. 273 India claimed that the accession had the people's support through the support of the National Conference, the most popular organisation in the state. Historians have questioned the representativeness of the National Conference and the clarity of its leaderships' goals.
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Evidence that the representativeness heuristic may cause the disjunction fallacy comes from Bar-Hillel and Neter (1993). They found that people judge a person who is highly representative of being a statistics major (e.g., highly intelligent, does math competitions) as being more likely to be a statistics major than a social sciences major (superset of statistics), but they do not think that he is more likely to be a Hebrew language major than a humanities major (superset of Hebrew language). Thus, only when the person seems highly representative of a category is that category judged as more probable than its superordinate category.
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People do appear to have stable individual differences in their susceptibility to decision biases such as overconfidence, temporal discounting, and bias blind spot. That said, these stable levels of bias within individuals are possible to change. Participants in experiments who watched training videos and played debiasing games showed medium to large reductions both immediately and up to three months later in the extent to which they exhibited susceptibility to six cognitive biases: anchoring, bias blind spot, confirmation bias, fundamental attribution error, projection bias, and representativeness. Individual differences in cognitive bias have also been linked to varying levels of cognitive abilities and functions.
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Daniel Kahneman In the early seventies, investigation of heuristics and biases was a large area of study in psychology, led by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. Two heuristics identified by Tversky and Kahneman were of immediate importance in the development of the hindsight bias; these were the availability heuristic and the representativeness heuristic. In an elaboration of these heuristics, Beyth and Fischhoff devised the first experiment directly testing the hindsight bias. They asked participants to judge the likelihood of several outcomes of US president Richard Nixon's upcoming visit to Beijing (then romanized as Peking) and Moscow.
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This course, "focuses on a selected few masterpieces of Ottoman artistic and literary production, picked on the basis of not only their high aesthetic qualities, but also their representativeness across different genres and historical periods". The Ertuğ & Kocabıyık facsimile edition of the complete Voyage pittoresque de Constantinople et des rives du Bosphor was produced from the original "elephant folio", an unfolded first edition in the collection of Ahmet Ertuğ. The technical aspects of the project were done under the supervision of Ertuğ in Switzerland by facsimile specialists. This facsimile edition was available in two different bindings.
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Missing data reduces the representativeness of the sample and can therefore distort inferences about the population. Generally speaking, there are three main approaches to handle missing data: (1) Imputation—where values are filled in the place of missing data, (2) omission—where samples with invalid data are discarded from further analysis and (3) analysis—by directly applying methods unaffected by the missing values. One systematic review addressing the prevention and handling of missing data for patient-centered outcomes research identified 10 standards as necessary for the prevention and handling of missing data. These include standards for study design, study conduct, analysis, and reporting.
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In machine learning, it is desired to have a training set that represents the true distribution of some sample data S. This can be quantified using the notion of representativeness. Denote by P the probability distribution from which the samples are drawn. Denote by H the set of hypotheses (potential classifiers) and denote by F the corresponding set of error functions, i.e., for every hypothesis h\in H, there is a function f_h\in F, that maps each training sample (features,label) to the error of the classifier h (note in this case hypothesis and classifier are used interchangeably).
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These have been shown to affect people's choices in situations like valuing a house or deciding the outcome of a legal case. Heuristics usually govern automatic, intuitive judgments but can also be used as deliberate mental strategies when working from limited information. While seemingly irrational, the cognitive biases may be interpreted as the result of bounded rationality, with human beings making decisions while economizing time and effort. Kuran and Sunstein describe the availability heuristic as more fundamental than the other heuristics: besides being important in its own right, it enables and amplifies the others, including framing, representativeness, anchoring, and reference points.
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The 2003 Public Service Employment Act (which came into force on December 31, 2005) emphasizes the values of merit, non-partisanship, fairness, access, transparency and representativeness. Merit refers to the use of essential qualifications during the hiring and promotion process. This means that people who are hired and promoted in the public service must possess certain competencies, skills, and experience (merit), rather than based on political connections or partisan affiliations (political patronage). The merit principle requires that every person who is appointed to the public service has met the essential qualifications and requirements established for the position.
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Belgrade municipal newspaper, From the Belgrade past, Belgrade 1938 An additional floor was built in 1928 and the building was completely reshaped according to the principles of academic interwar architecture. The need for representativeness was resolved with the sequence of leaned columns on the ground floor and by setting up the sculptures , which represented the senators on the consoles between the first-floor windows. The author of the sculptures was the sculptor Dragomir Arambašić. The interior was specifically marked by the City Council conference hall, with domineering shallow reliefs and frescoes presenting Belgrade, the work of Živorad Nastasijević .
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Broadcasting can take place across a number of platforms, text, photographic, video, audio or even direct human contact. The use of anchoring-and-adjustment, framing and representativeness heuristics provides fertile grounds for “re-wiring” the decision making processes to include either positive or mitigating mental models of a given concept or set of related concepts. The “re-wiring” will often produce results that have a significant impact on later decisions and behaviors on the target audience. The framework analyses key factors that influence the effectiveness of messaging mechanisms and how differing approaches can lead to entirely different results.
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Whether a trade union is entitled to organisational rights depends on the level of representativeness of the trade union in the workplace, which can be either majority representation or "sufficient" representation. If a union represents the majority of workers, it will have access to all organisational rights. If the union is sufficiently representative, it will have access only to certain organisational rights: the rights of access, leave and stop-order facilities. The rights to elect shop stewards and to disclosure of information, on the other hand, are reserved for unions that have as members the majority of the employees in the workplace.
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The Center for Deliberative Democracy at Stanford University describes its process as follows: Fishkin argues that during deliberation, discussion among participants should: # be backed by truthful claims, # include arguments both for and against the proposal, # remain polite, # involve an evaluation of arguments based solely on merit and # cover a diverse array of perspectives from substantial portions of the population. Logistically, deliberative opinion polls are very similar to Danish consensus conferences. However, a deliberative poll is larger, from 100 to 200 participants, to increase representativeness. In addition, instead of reaching a consensus, agreement or verdict at the end of deliberation, deliberative polling is interested in measuring opinion change.
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The estimates of likelihood associated with the optimistic bias are based on how closely an event matches a person's overall idea of the specific event. Some researchers suggest that the representativeness heuristic is a reason for the optimistic bias: individuals tend to think in stereotypical categories rather than about their actual targets when making comparisons. For example, when drivers are asked to think about a car accident, they are more likely to associate a bad driver, rather than just the average driver. Individuals compare themselves with the negative elements that come to mind, rather than an overall accurate comparison between them and another driver.
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Relying too heavily on heuristics that over-simplify complex decisions. This can include: ; Availability heuristic : Group members rely on information that is readily available. ; Conjunctive bias : When groups are not aware that the probability of a given event occurring is the least upper bound on the probability of that event and any other given event occurring together; thus if the probability of the second event is less than one, the occurrence of the pair will always be less likely than the first event alone. ; Representativeness heuristic : Group members rely too heavily on decision- making factors that seem meaningful but are, in fact, more or less misleading.
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While the representativeness heuristic and other cognitive biases are the most commonly cited cause of the gambler's fallacy, research suggests that there may also be a neurological component. Functional magnetic resonance imaging has shown that after losing a bet or gamble, known as riskloss, the frontoparietal network of the brain is activated, resulting in more risk-taking behavior. In contrast, there is decreased activity in the amygdala, caudate, and ventral striatum after a riskloss. Activation in the amygdala is negatively correlated with gambler's fallacy, so that the more activity exhibited in the amygdala, the less likely an individual is to fall prey to the gambler's fallacy.
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The reaction of musicologists to Cantometrics was complex, as some critics questioned whether one could ever have enough statistics to prove anything about music and culture. One, Richard Middleton, called it an example of sociological homology. The musical examples for Cantometrics had not been chosen randomly, however, but for their representativeness, following the scholarly guidance of specialists who had studied the regions and /or supplied the audio or film clip samples. This was done because it was found that style tends to be very repetitive, and in most instances relatively few examples captured the stable performance norms, so that in most cases, coding many examples per culture yielded little new information.
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Members of larger juries on the other hand, exchange more information. 2\. Representativeness: Saks concluded that smaller juries were not as representative as larger juries. That is, if a community was 10% Latino and 90% Anglo, it is probable that approximately 80% of 12 member juries would include at least one Latino member, while only 40% of 6 member juries would consist of any Latinos. 3\. Majority Influence: The influence of a majority is more likely in smaller juries, while the influence of a minority would be more likely in a larger group as dissenters are more likely to find at least one other who shares their opinion.
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According to some commentators, the time is ripe for a revival of jury sentencing, because flaws in the determinate sentencing systems are becoming increasingly apparent. Lawmakers drafting legislation such as the Sentencing Reform Act have had difficulty mustering the political will to make clear choices among opposing moral and ideological viewpoints, instead delegating these decisions to agencies that lack the representativeness and democratic origin of legislatures. Prosecutors have routinely circumvented the sentencing guidelines through their charging and plea bargaining decisions, creating a new set of disparities, despite the intent of the guidelines to curtail disparities. Determinate sentencing has also failed to reduce racial disparity in sentencing.
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Data that are collected or generated through digital or mobile mechanisms will often pose additional challenges, especially regarding the verification when the information comes from social media. Though a significant amount of work is under way to develop software and algorithms for verifying crowdsourced or anonymously provided data, such tools are not yet operational or widely available. Also, multiple data transactions and increased complexity in data structures raise the potential for error in humanitarian data entry and interpretation, and this raises concerns about the accuracy and representativeness of data that is used for policy decisions in highly pressurized situations that demand quick decision-making.
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Several consumer psychologists have also studied the heuristics that people use in numerical cognition. For example, Thomas and Morwitz (2009) reviewed several studies showing that the three heuristics that manifest in many everyday judgments and decisions – anchoring, representativeness, and availability – also influence numerical cognition. They identify the manifestations of these heuristics in numerical cognition as: the left-digit anchoring effect, the precision effect, and the ease of computation effect respectively. The left-digit effect refers to the observation that people tend to incorrectly judge the difference between $4.00 and $2.99 to be larger than that between $4.01 and $3.00 because of anchoring on left-most digits.
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Social cognition came to prominence with the rise of cognitive psychology in the late 1960s and early 1970s and is now the dominant model and approach in mainstream social psychology. Common to social cognition theories is the idea that information is represented in the brain as "cognitive elements" such as schemas, attributions, or stereotypes. A focus on how these cognitive elements are processed is often employed. Social cognition therefore applies and extends many themes, theories, and paradigms from cognitive psychology that can be identified in reasoning (representativeness heuristic, base rate fallacy and confirmation bias), attention (automaticity and priming) and memory (schemas, primacy and recency).
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Studies have discussed issues related to the selection into the programme and the representativeness of the participants. Some studies have raised doubts about the inclusiveness of the programme, by socio-economic background, level of study, or academic performance. Thus, one study analyses the financial issues and family background of Erasmus students, showing that despite the fact that access to the programme has been moderately widened, there are still important socio-economic barriers to participation in the programme. Another study uncovered what seems to be an adverse self-selection of Erasmus students based on their prior academic performance, with higher-performing students less likely to participate than lower-performing ones.
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Air dispersion models that combine topographic, emissions, and meteorological data to predict air pollutant concentrations are often helpful in interpreting air monitoring data. Additionally, consideration of anemometer data in the area between sources and the monitor often provides insights on the source of the air contaminants recorded by an air pollution monitor. Air quality monitors are operated by citizens, regulatory agencies, and researchers to investigate air quality and the effects of air pollution. Interpretation of ambient air monitoring data often involves a consideration of the spatial and temporal representativeness of the data gathered, and the health effects associated with exposure to the monitored levels.
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The representativeness heuristic is used when making judgments about the probability of an event under uncertainty. It is one of a group of heuristics (simple rules governing judgment or decision-making) proposed by psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the early 1970s as "the degree to which [an event] (i) is similar in essential characteristics to its parent population, and (ii) reflects the salient features of the process by which it is generated". Heuristics are described as "judgmental shortcuts that generally get us where we need to go – and quickly – but at the cost of occasionally sending us off course." Heuristics are useful because they use effort-reduction and simplification in decision-making.
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Providing evidence of both defunct and more recent technologies, the Heritage Fleet is a rich source for research into the development of fire fighting appliances over some one hundred and fifty years. As a collection, the Fire & Rescue Heritage Fleet is rare in terms of its high representativeness, and its comprehensiveness. Some of the vehicles that comprise the collection are rare items in their own right. ;1898 Shand Mason Curricle Ladders As at 16 July 2012, the 1898 Shand Mason Curricle Ladders demonstrate the continuing process of improving and upgrading firefighting equipment and techniques in NSW, in response to the increasing and new demands of a developing and expanding City of Sydney.
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Sexual Preference attracted considerable media attention in 1981, receiving positive reviews from the historian Paul Robinson in Psychology Today and Richard P. Halgin in Library Journal, a negative review from the sociologist John Gagnon in The New York Times, a notice in Newsweek, and a discussion in The Chronicle of Higher Education, which focused on the controversy surrounding the book. The following year, the book received a negative review from Michael Ignatieff in the London Review of Books. The work was faulted for the questionable representativeness of its sample of homosexuals, but those who reviewed it positively praised it for the sophistication of its path analysis. Robinson suggested that Bell et al.
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Representativeness explains systematic errors that people make when judging the probability of random events. For example, in a sequence of coin tosses, each of which comes up heads (H) or tails (T), people reliably tend to judge a clearly patterned sequence such as HHHTTT as less likely than a less patterned sequence such as HTHTTH. These sequences have exactly the same probability, but people tend to see the more clearly patterned sequences as less representative of randomness, and so less likely to result from a random process. Tversky and Kahneman argued that this effect underlies the gambler's fallacy; a tendency to expect outcomes to even out over the short run, like expecting a roulette wheel to come up black because the last several throws came up red.
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Observers differed on the size or representativeness of the demonstrations. One source called the main rally in the capital "possibly the largest crowd in the streets of Tehran since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s funeral in 1989."Another Iranian Revolution? Not Likely By FLYNT LEVERETT and HILLARY MANN LEVERETT, January 5, 2010 But this was challenged by another source which stated that satellite pictures of the demonstration showed it having "far, far fewer people there than at recent opposition rallies, which numbered in the millions," and that instead of congregating in Azadi Square in Tehran, where the regime had "traditionally organized mass rallies to intimidate the opposition and the world", the rally was held in "a much smaller square" in the middle of city.
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Para Wirra Conservation Park is not only important as an educational resource, but also for its conservation and recreation value. The boundary of the conservation park is contiguous with, and forms part of a block of native vegetation. As only twenty six percent (26%) of the Mount Lofty Ranges remains uncleared, a block of native vegetation of this size is important in terms of its representativeness of vegetation types, for the maintenance of diversity of animal and plant species, maintenance of water quality, and as a valuable recreational resource for the community. Para Wirra Conservation Park also provides a range of recreation opportunities consistent with its conservation significance and its importance and proximity to the expanding population of the northern metropolitan area.
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The paper has been criticized for restricting its analysis to convenience samples of college students, possibly introducing systematic bias by excluding victims so traumatized that they did not go on to attend college. Another possibility was that Rind et al.'s conclusions may not be generalizable beyond college populations in general as individuals with a history of CSA were more likely than non-abused individuals to drop out of college after a single semester. Rind, Bauserman and Tromovitch responded to this criticism by saying that "the representativeness of college samples is in fact irrelevant to the stated goals and conclusions of our study" since the purpose of their research was "to examine the validity of the clinical concept" of CSA.
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In its first year, Seoul citizens voted and finalized on 223 projects worth 50.3 billion KRW, and most recently in 2017, the PB system finalized 766 projects amounting to 59.3 billion KRW (approximately US$55 million). A comprehensive study of Korea's PB in 2016 suggests that PB in Korea has allocated most of public budget to the following three areas: land/local development, transportation, and culture and tourism. Transparency in budget documents and information sharing has increased since 2011, and the approval rates by local PB committees averaged to approximately 70%. On the other hand, the study also points out that the lack of citizen capacity, inadequate resources for smaller municipalities, and limited representativeness of vested interests as some of the most unresolved challenges in Korea's PB implementation.
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When people are asked to make up a random-looking sequence of coin tosses, they tend to make sequences where the proportion of heads to tails stays closer to 0.5 in any short segment than would be predicted by chance, a phenomenon known as insensitivity to sample size. Kahneman and Tversky interpret this to mean that people believe short sequences of random events should be representative of longer ones. The representativeness heuristic is also cited behind the related phenomenon of the clustering illusion, according to which people see streaks of random events as being non-random when such streaks are actually much more likely to occur in small samples than people expect. The gambler's fallacy can also be attributed to the mistaken belief that gambling, or even chance itself, is a fair process that can correct itself in the event of streaks, known as the just-world hypothesis.
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He argued that their finding that most homosexuals reported that they were in good health was inconsistent with their finding that most homosexuals "spend 3 or more nights a week out." He also pointed to their findings that 27% of homosexuals experience "either some or a great deal of regret about being homosexual", that 56% of homosexuals "usually spend several hours or less with a partner", and that homosexuals tend to be sexually promiscuous, arguing that such promiscuity suggests "maladjustment and compulsivity". He argued that their finding that some homosexuals are "close- coupled" did not show that homosexuality is not pathological, and that they misled their readers by claiming that "close-coupled homosexuals are on average as happy and well-adjusted as heterosexuals." The psychologists Stanton L. Jones and Mark A. Yarhouse observed that the conclusions of the authors of Homosexualities were based on convenience samples, which have no known representativeness.
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Another popular example of a supposed cognitive illusion is the conjunction fallacy, described in an experiment by Tversky and Kahneman known as the "Linda problem." In this experiment, participants are presented with a short description of a person called Linda, who is 31 years old, single, intelligent, outspoken, and went to a university where she majored in philosophy, was concerned about discrimination and social justice, and participated in anti-nuclear protests. When participants were asked if it were more probable that Linda is (1) a bank teller, or (2) a bank teller and a feminist, 85% responded with option 2, even though it option 1 cannot be less probable than option 2. They concluded that this was a product of a representativeness heuristic, or a tendency to draw probabilistic inferences based on property similarities between instances of a concept, rather than a statistically structured inference.
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The new permanent members would have in fact benefited from the method of electing, which is particularly advantageous in a number of specific organs of the United Nations System . After having agreed with the need to increase the representativeness of the Security Council, in 2005 during the 59th session of the United Nations General Assembly, the UFC group — led by the representatives of Canada, Italy, Colombia and Pakistan — made a proposal that centres on an enlargement of the number of non-permanent members from ten to twenty. The non-permanent members would be elected by the General Assembly for a two-year term and would be eligible for immediate re-election, subject to the decision of their respective geographical groups. The other members and co-sponsors of the text, entitled "Reform of the Security Council", were listed as Argentina, Costa Rica, Malta, Mexico, San Marino, South Korea, Spain and Turkey.
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The major mark of totalitarian society, the role of fear and ideology, makes clear why Shlapentokh made the focus in his methodological studies the empirical validity of sociological data. This issue had largely escaped the attention of American sociologists who overestimated the impact of the freedom of expression on the readiness of their respondents to be sincere in their surveys. Shlapentokh and several of his colleagues were sure that respondents in any society, but particularly those in authoritarian societies, were influenced by "desirable values," the desire of people to answer questions in accordance with the ideology dominant in their milieu. No other expert on surveys in the United States has paid as much attention to the veracity of respondents as Shlapentokh has, developing his theories on this issue in two books published in Russian (see: The Empirical Validity of the Statistical Information in Sociological Studies 1973; The Quality of Sociological Information: Validity, Representativeness and Prognostic Potential 2006).
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The gambler's fallacy arises out of a belief in a law of small numbers, leading to the erroneous belief that small samples must be representative of the larger population. According to the fallacy, streaks must eventually even out in order to be representative. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman first proposed that the gambler's fallacy is a cognitive bias produced by a psychological heuristic called the representativeness heuristic, which states that people evaluate the probability of a certain event by assessing how similar it is to events they have experienced before, and how similar the events surrounding those two processes are. According to this view, "after observing a long run of red on the roulette wheel, for example, most people erroneously believe that black will result in a more representative sequence than the occurrence of an additional red", so people expect that a short run of random outcomes should share properties of a longer run, specifically in that deviations from average should balance out.
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Flowers encouraged her to recite them, which helped bring her out of her self-imposed period of muteness caused by her trauma. President Bill Clinton (with Chelsea Clinton and Hillary Clinton), taking the oath of office during his inauguration in 1993 Angelou was the first poet to read an inaugural poem since Robert Frost read his poem "The Gift Outright" at President John F. Kennedy's inauguration in 1961, and the first Black woman. When it was announced that Angelou would read one of her poems at Clinton's inauguration, many in the popular press compared her role as inaugural poet with that of Frost's, especially what critic Zofia Burr called their "representativeness", or their ability to speak for and to the American people. The press also pointed to the nation's social progress that a Black woman would "stand in the place of a white man" at his inauguration, and praised Angelou's involvement as the Clinton administration's "gesture of inclusion".
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Such catches were typical for the period. Although angler effects are sometimes disregarded in the overall picture today, recent population studies have shown that while all year classes are well represented up to the minimum legal angling size (now 60 centimetres in most states), above that size, numbers of fish are dramatically reduced almost to the point of non-existence in many waters. Some emphasis has been made of the results of two small surveys which suggested a majority of Murray cod are released by anglers. However, there are valid questions as to the representativeness of these surveys, these surveys do not explain the dramatic disappearance of large numbers of young Murray cod at exactly the minimum size limit, and most importantly, any emphasis on these surveys miss the fundamental point — as a large, long-lived species with relatively low fecundity and delayed sexual maturity wild Murray cod populations are extremely vulnerable to overfishing, even with only modest angler-kill.
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The majority of those asked chose option 2. However, the probability of two events occurring together (in "conjunction") is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone—formally, for two events A and B this inequality could be written as \Pr(A \land B) \leq \Pr(A) and \Pr(A \land B) \leq \Pr(B). For example, even choosing a very low probability of Linda being a bank teller, say Pr(Linda is a bank teller) = 0.05 and a high probability that she would be a feminist, say Pr(Linda is a feminist) = 0.95, then, assuming independence, Pr(Linda is a bank teller and Linda is a feminist) = 0.05 × 0.95 or 0.0475, lower than Pr(Linda is a bank teller). Tversky and Kahneman argue that most people get this problem wrong because they use a heuristic (an easily calculated) procedure called representativeness to make this kind of judgment: Option 2 seems more "representative" of Linda based on the description of her, even though it is clearly mathematically less likely.
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Before September 2018, FAA AC 61-136B when a manufacturer wished to have an ATD model approved, a document that contains the specifications for the model line and that proves compliance with the appropriate regulations is submitted to the FAA. Once this document, called a Qualification Approval Guide (QAG), has been approved, all future devices conforming to the QAG are automatically approved and individual evaluation is neither required nor available.FAA AC 61-136A The actual procedure accepted by all CAAs (Civil Aviation Authorities) around the world is to propose 30 days prior qualification date (40 days for CAAC) a MQTG document (Master Qualification Test Guide), which is proper to a unique simulator device and will live along the device itself, containing objective, and functional and subjective tests to demonstrate the representativeness of the simulator compare to the airplane. The results will be compared to Flight Test Data provided by aircraft OEMs or from test campaign ordered by simulator OEMs or also can be compared by POM (Proof Of Match) data provided by aircraft OEMs development simulators.
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