Something really bad has to happen – deflationary or recessionary.
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Asset allocations are "implying recessionary conditions," Bank of America said.
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Experts fear it because it has historically preceded recessionary periods.
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A new recessionary period is confidently predicted, and probably soon.
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Recessionary fears could weigh on dealmaking activity, the report said.
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This bond market phenomena is regarded as a recessionary signal.
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If that sounds likes a recessionary combination, then it probably is.
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Do I think housing enters a recessionary environment for housing itself?
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But we've seen restaurants slowing more akin to a recessionary environment.
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That's what "Japanification" looks like: slow growth with repeated recessionary episodes.
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Experts fear it because in the past it has preceded recessionary periods.
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Private capital had been hard to come by in the recessionary years.
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"Recent declines in business sentiment have driven recessionary risk higher," she said.
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We aren't looking at recessionary numbers, but it is a yellow flag.
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However, MRB Partners strategist Prajakta Bhide thinks recessionary fears may be overblown.
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Phil Camporeale, portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, disagreed with Cashin's recessionary views.
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A recessionary housing market does threaten their profit margin, which is a pity.
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After a tumultuous 2019, it seems that the market's recessionary fears have finally quelled.
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Among the evidence that the recessionary signals out of the bond market are wrong?
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Even this falls somewhat short of a recessionary shock, but it is nevertheless significant.
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"Recessionary fear is starting to raise its ugly head," wrote Stephen Innes at broker Oanda.
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So, we have dodged a recessionary bullet thanks to the consumer's continued willingness to spend.
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In a non-recessionary period off year, the worst case scenario is stocks fell 4%.
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It's easy to exaggerate this [though]—it's not a recessionary event by a long-shot.
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Even if the United States heads into a "garden variety" recessionary environment, banks may outperform.
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Two months ago, he pushed his recessionary timeline out to less than 12 months away.
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The economy is slowing down but not to the point of recessionary levels, Patel said.
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A crash in oil prices added to recessionary fears due to the spread of coronavirus.
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"The economy, as the data's showing, is tepid but absolutely not recessionary," Golub said on Friday.
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Fitch's revised forecast signals the highest non-recessionary rate since the 5.1% mark posted in 2000.
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Popular barometers indicate recessionary risks are rising, in part explaining the underperformance of financials, Zidle said.
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Despite the increase, ANL remains below the recessionary peak of 13.14% experienced in February of 2009.
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A slowing economy isn't necessarily a recessionary one, and the US labor market has remained resilient.
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That could give certain workers up to 20 additional weeks of unemployment in a recessionary environment.
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When the recessionary tides went out they took all the "boats" down with it, including ours.
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While the province's recessionary recovery was somewhat less robust than the nation's, recent performance has been stronger.
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Tit-for-tat tariffs between both the countries have rattled financial markets and stirred global recessionary fears.
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Last year the global economy grew 2500 percent, its slowest pace since the recessionary year of 225.3.
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We're starting to see more and more signs that the economy is looking more recessionary that expansionary.
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Yields for 1953-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries entered inversion territory, a classic recessionary red flag.
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Recessionary forces would also deepen over coming years if the pension system stays unchanged, the ministry said.
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And housing still has not gotten back above pre-recessionary levels in terms of permits and starts.
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A handful of states that are dependent on oil revenues hit a recessionary condition earlier this year.
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"Recent declines in business sentiment have driven recessionary risk higher," she said, referring to the United States.
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Tribal economies on the whole are hurting, and the recessionary tail of the pandemic will be long.
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But I don't think this is recessionary and I don't think this is going to be catastrophic.
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Traders worry when the yield curve inverts because, in the past, this event has preceded recessionary periods.
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And whenever that comes, deficits will be larger than during any other non-recessionary period in history.
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Regulators still fear unstoppable recessionary declines and wasted growth potential far more than they worry about credit excesses.
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Tit-for-tat tariffs between both the countries have rattled financial markets and stirred up global recessionary fears.
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An inverted curve, where long-dated yields are below short-dated ones, has proved a powerful recessionary indicator.
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CNBC examined the most recent Wall Street research to find top picks by analysts in a recessionary environment.
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COLUMN: Tiny tin market sounds a recessionary warning note: Andy Home Additional reporting by Tom Daly in BEIJING
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Otherwise, the hit to the economy can drag on for months on end -- and that could be recessionary.
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The question is how dark are those clouds going to be and will they trigger a recessionary storm.
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That would put it at its highest-ever peacetime level outside of recessionary periods, according to Capital Economics.
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And it has floated the idea of capping yields on treasury securities to combat recessionary forces if they emerge.
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Higher interest costs and recessionary events in Argentina caused certain Cargill investments to decline in value, the company said.
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It turns out, the U-M survey specifically does a reasonably good job at picking up early recessionary signals.
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But Robert Shiller, the Nobel laureate and famed Yale economist, thinks investors are severely limited in their recessionary forecasts.
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Diane von Furstenberg named Nathan Jenden her new chief design officer (I know: C.D.O.; brings up strange, recessionary nightmares).
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Trump, Pence and business leaders are eager to calm public jitters and soften economic shocks that pose recessionary risks.
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"The inverted yield curve is certainly a recessionary signal," said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank.
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The question is when you look at ISM or the pace of job gains, the question is are they recessionary?
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Restaurant sales growth has been slowing at a puzzling pace usually seen in a much weaker or even recessionary economy.
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Manufacturing is sending signs of trouble, with the bellwether Purchasing Managers' Index below the recessionary threshold of 50 last week.
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In the hierarchy of Rooney's literary identities, millennial is greater than Irish, but post-recessionary may be greater than millennial.
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When Apple began establishing business operations in Cork in December 1980, Ireland was entering a near decades-long recessionary period.
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If grunge songs didn't directly address the concerns of working people, it was nevertheless recessionary music, made by underemployed slackers.
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Otherwise, we have a nasty recession and the usual merry-go-round with binary outcomes – rising inflation and/or recessionary slippages.
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"I think recessionary signals are rising," Rainer Michael Preiss, executive director at Taurus Wealth Advisors, told CNBC's "Street Signs" on Wednesday.
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Meanwhile, the economic data coming in looks ever so slightly less robust—not recessionary, by any means but not invulnerable, either.
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Investors will be watching this week's economic data after a dismal February jobs report and recessionary signals from U.S. Treasury yields.
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Historically the Federal reserve has been there to lower rates in recessionary times and raise rates in times of strong growth.
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"Recessionary fears" have caused "contagion" in the oil markets, according to Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil market research at Rystad Energy.
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The bond market flashed a classic recessionary signal Wednesday, when the 10-year Treasury yield fell below its two-year counterpart.
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The recessionary hangover encouraged employers to avoid adding fixed costs and to be as flexible as possible in staffing and compensation.
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Disney's ad-supported platforms, including ESPN Plus and Hulu, could also be at risk during a recessionary downturn in ad-spending.
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With recessionary fears high for countries across the Atlantic, U.S. market participants are closely monitoring every indicator of domestic economic health.
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"Historically, a smart move going into a recessionary period is to reduce stock risk and shore up on bonds," he said.
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A much smaller hit to growth would be more likely to put us in recessionary territory now than in the late 1990s.
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Consumer preferences tend to shift to lower-cost alternatives during recessionary periods and other periods in which disposable income is adversely affected.
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Short-term growth prospects look weaker than expected, particularly in the U.S., but we do not believe we are in recessionary territory.
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The sale of one of the largest U.S. flooring retailers comes as home improvement spending has rebounded from a steep recessionary recline.
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But either scenario makes the case for interest rate cuts compelling - either as an insurance policy, or a cushion against recessionary forces.
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Goldman Sachs Group Inc said on Sunday that its economists see recessionary risks increasing as the U.S.-China trade war drags on.
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S. tariff war has fanned recessionary fears, but recent optimism over a phase one deal had driven a rally in equity markets.
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S. tariff war has fanned recessionary fears, but recent optimism over a phase one deal has driven a rally in equity markets.
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S. tariff war has fanned recessionary fears, but recent optimism over a phase one deal has driven a rally in equity markets.
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However, despite recession warnings, many analysts including McClellan are saying that the inverted yield curve is not the most reliable recessionary gauge.
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This is known as a yield-curve inversion and is feared by experts because it has preceded recessionary periods in the past.
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The 17-month long trade dispute has triggered a 15% rise in gold prices in the year, and fanned global recessionary fears.
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The official Chinese purchasing managers index slipped into recessionary territory in May with a headline reading of 49.4 reflecting weakening new orders.
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When removing energy and retail anticipated loan defaults, Fitch's 2018 loan default rate falls to 1.5%, comparable to the non-recessionary 1.7% average.
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In past recessions, most of the indicators were "recessionary" or "neutral," while the current state of the economy is telling a different story.
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The index, calculated using business and central bank survey data, indicates recessionary conditions at 95 and 2 percent long-term growth at 100.
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Wald finds that in similar, non-recessionary downturns, the S&P 2740 has tended to drop 14.53 percent over an eight-month period.
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When investors are confident that the authorities will counter any recessionary forces, they don't need to respond to every disappointment in the data.
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Investment-grade corporate-bond risk spreads have burst with record speed from historic lows to levels that roughly price in recessionary default rates.
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"We are very happy that we still don't see this recessionary development that has been widely discussed for a year now," Rosengren said.
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The present crisis began with the S&P 500 nearly 13.5 years from, and a whopping 109% above, its last pre-recessionary high.
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And if (but only if) you have your own burning startup idea in you, it might be best to beat the eventual recessionary rush.
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She warned of recessionary impacts from the pro-democracy demonstrations and dismissed a "rumor" that she will be replaced by an impatient Beijing (Bloomberg).
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The recent yield-curve inversion stoked recessionary fears, but the wealthy are not betting on a sudden and large reversal in the U.S. economy.
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"People are nervous that the good times can't last too much longer - we're into the longest-running period without a recessionary force," said Snare.
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ANL is expected to rise at or near the 10014% and 2212% area for prime and subprime, respectively, both well within peak recessionary levels.
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The Silver State's unemployment rate is down to 21625 percent, almost 2900 points lower than its recessionary high of 220006 percent in November 2202.
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The topic of Germany's spending, or lack of it, has come to the fore this summer as its economy has slipped near recessionary territory.
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These and other statistics indicate that the United States and Europe are just one recessionary shock away from being caught in a deflationary trap.
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SCOTT WAPNER: You've said as recently as last week that there aren't inflationary -- excuse me, recessionary winds -- JEFFREY GUNDLACH: The only one -- SCOTT WAPNER: -- Blowing.
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"Market-related headlines this morning have been dominated by yield curve inversion and the recessionary implications that follow," Rabobank said in a note to clients.
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But importantly, the index has not fallen below 50, which indicates activity is still increasing and recessionary conditions aren't showing in the global business sector.
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"The attempt to push them higher, in fact, will be such a recessionary shock that the Fed will have no room to respond," DeLong said.
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During the debate, opposition parties argued pension cuts and tax hikes would prove recessionary, dealing another blow to a population fatigued by years of austerity.
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A bushel of corn today commands about $22019 on the futures markets, less than half its post-recessionary peak of more than $8 a bushel.
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Anti-recessionary government policies aim to do exactly that, by providing money to hire unemployed workers and inspiring the confidence required to undertake new investments.
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Although Mr. Erdogan remains popular, he is feeling the pressure of a recessionary economy and a currency collapse that have cut into Turks' living standards.
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"Of course, early in recessions, some sectors might turn recessionary first, so this figure is not strong evidence against a future recession," the note said.
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"If we went into a recessionary-type environment we could see ourselves doubling our loan losses," Dottori-Attanasio told analysts on a conference call on Thursday.
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"We upgraded health care because in an environment where you have slightly weaker growth — again, not recessionary, slightly weaker — you buy stuff like that," Golub said.
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Hopes major economies will seek to prop up slowing growth with fresh stimulus have helped ease some of the recessionary fears unleashed in markets last week.
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Prime loss rates on outstanding 2013-2015 transactions are currently tracking similar to 2004-2006 transaction losses, and well below the 2008-2009 peak recessionary levels.
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Such policies need not be recessionary, particularly if they come alongside a large dose of fiscal stimulus, but anti-trade policies are generally not growth enhancing.
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As of February, the median home price in the metropolitan area was about $340,000, more than double its recessionary trough of about $150,000, according to Zillow.
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"The number of deaths continued to rise during the recessionary period, but births have yet to rebound from the impact of the recession," Mr. Johnson said.
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That situation was already bad in the recessionary depths of 2009, when cars outsold so-called light trucks — S.U.V.s, pickups and minivans — for the last time.
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Short-term Treasurys began paying a higher yield than long-term Treasurys last summer – which is a classic recessionary signal known as an inverted yield curve.
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Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at AmeriVet Securities, said the market needs more clarity on both Brexit and trade to put recessionary worries to rest.
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Given that our post-recession recovery is becoming a bit long-in-the-tooth, turning a blind eye to recessionary indicators would lead to disastrous outcomes.
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"The issue is those revenues aren't recessionary proof because when the economy slows that $5 coffee drink is one of the first things to go," Tepper warned.
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The chief investment officer of Avalon Advisors builds his case in a special chart that shows in a non-recessionary environment like this one, stocks typically gained.
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And indeed, business investment fell by one percent over the last four quarters—the first decline over four quarters in a non-recessionary period in 30 years.
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You may think of what the Fed did as a response to howls of laments that it was killing an economy allegedly verging on a recessionary relapse.
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Mester also predicted wage growth and a further improvement in the U.S. labor market, where unemployment has fallen to about half of its 10-percent recessionary high.
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"Our market views are predicated on a supportive economic backdrop, with benign recessionary risks and a pickup in near-term indicators," Golub said in a note Monday.
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On the plus side, the level of initial jobless claims — among the earliest warning signs of trouble — is still very low and not sending a recessionary signal.
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"We can't lose sight that the most relevant issue is that a disorderly Brexit would have a very big, major recessionary impact on the UK," he said.
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But when our forward-looking indexes, including several high-frequency indicators, signal that we're moving into a recessionary window of vulnerability, the Fed will need to act.
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Investors typically don't rush to embrace risky stocks if they think a recessionary wave is threatening to overtake the economy, even if interest rates are coming down.
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Using the inverted yield curve as a recessionary indicator may not be as reliable nowadays as it's been historically, longtime trader Art Cashin told CNBC on Thursday.
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He backs up his thesis by citing economic narratives, an increasing number of recessionary precursors stacking up, and valuations on the higher side of the historical average.
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This implies that central banks could be more limited in their ability to further lower the policy rate to respond to recessionary shocks and stimulate the economy.
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There's so much nervousness about a looming recession, the '70s seem to be all any designer can think about (followed by that other recessionary decade, the '90s).
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Housing optimists are pinning their bets on strong U.S. job creation, low interest rates, tight housing supply, robust earnings estimates and a lack of recessionary red flags.
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Such gloomy assessments might only confirm the bond market's view that US and world interest rates had further to fall in an increasingly recessionary and deflationary environment.
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"With the global economic data continuing to deteriorate this new trade war front will stoke the recessionary fears to no end," Innes wrote in a research note Thursday.
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"The final recessionary shoe has now fallen... Rapid curve steepening is now occurring, suggesting recession may indeed either be imminent or else it has already arrived," he said.
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Asset allocation overall is "implying recessionary conditions," the survey said, with the second-biggest monthly drop ever on the equity side and the second-lowest total to stocks.
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"The stock market may not agree with the recessionary message from the Treasury market, but it would be foolish to disregard this bond curve move entirely," he wrote.
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" In a telephone interview with Reuters, Gundlach said investors were "slowly trying to reconcile themselves that the bond market has been showing recessionary signals for quite some time.
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While representing the highest level since February 2011 (0.90%), losses are still well below the historical average of 2908% and the recessionary peak of 20214% in January 21.
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" In a telephone interview with Reuters, Gundlach said investors are "slowly trying to reconcile themselves that the bond market has been showing recessionary signals for quite some time.
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Even though this earnings revision ratio is nearing previous non-recessionary lows, BlackRock sees room for more downgrades because of trade tensions and pressure on corporate profit margins.
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Arizona, a reliably red state where polls show Clinton and Trump running neck and neck, has seen its unemployment rate halved from the recessionary high of 2628 percent.
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Germany, with its negative interest rates, is battling to keep its head above recessionary waters, and now many economists are forecasting "another lost decade" for the comatose Eurozone.
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In fact, 2017 could be the strongest year for net exports contributions to growth since 2009 and one of the best in the last 30 non-recessionary years.
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A recessionary credit pullback in the US would logically be offset by better commodity conditions in South America, reviving that business and given the Detroit giant some compensation.
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Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, thinks crude has a steep hill to climb before it becomes a recessionary risk that could topple the current bull market.
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The two major economies have imposed a series of tit-for-tat tariffs over the past 15 months that have hit financial markets and stirred up global recessionary fears.
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He highlighted the pattern on CNBC's "Trading Nation " in a chart that compares 2018-2019 sharp gains with the average rebound during post-World War II non-recessionary periods.
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"Given current population and economic growth trends, housing starts should be in the range of 1.5 million to 1.6 million completions and not stuck at recessionary levels," Yun said.
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Meanwhile, the first signs of a rebound in China are encouraging and indicate the current recessionary manufacturing conditions in some European economies could turn around in the coming months.
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"It's important to remember that softening economic data does not mean recessionary economic data," Mike Loewengart, vice-president of investment strategy at E*Trade Financial in New York, said.
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The recessionary 1990s gave rise to Generation X angst, Kurt Cobain dirges and a cultural obsession with newfangled antidepressants (see Elizabeth Wurtzel's "Prozac Nation: Young and Depressed in America").
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These radical but necessary steps to ensure physical distance will result in significant job losses and likely a recessionary economy -- and undoubtedly create considerable stress for millions of workers.
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"The economy is slipping deeper into a recessionary sinkhole that is getting broader," Stuart G. Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group in Pittsburgh, told The New York Times.
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The industry's plight was highlighted by the Automotive Component Manufactures Association of India (ACMA), with the trade body's director general, Vinnie Mehta, saying the sector was experiencing a "recessionary phase".
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street will be watching next week's economic data with a laser focus after a dismal February jobs report and recessionary warning signals from U.S. Treasury yields.
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"We do not view the inversion of the yield curve as a recessionary signal, and see central banks' dovish pivot stretching the growth cycle," said BlackRock Investment Institute on Monday.
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"Once unemployment starts to rise, even from a very low level, it undermines confidence, and the only difference between an expanding economy and a recessionary one is faith," Zandi said.
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Similarly, Bank of America Merrill Lynch equity strategist Savita Subramanian also said the benchmark is priced as if there is a 23-50 shot of a recessionary period this year.
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Since the 211.5 recessionary low, 260,22012 private firms and 140,200 jobs have been added to Nevada's economy, according to Bob Potts, research director for the Governor's Office of Economic Development.
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"The (gold) market has continued to rise in response to the continued worries that we have seen creeping in the market about recessionary risks," said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.
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The S&P 500 and the Dow gained ground in a late rally on Thursday as upbeat retail sales data offset recessionary fears amid the simmering U.S.-China trade tensions.
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Alia Moubayed, managing director at Jefferies, said the budget targets lacked realism given optimistic revenue forecasts that ignored the recessionary impact of the proposed measures and cuts in capital spending.
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"The group underperforms the market about 20 points year to date, and it's trading near its recessionary levels relative to the market at the end of the day," he said.
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In the U.S. Treasury market, the inversion of the U.S. yield curve -- a key recessionary indicator -- has also been arrested, with short-dated bond yields back below long-dated ones .
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This is known as a yield-curve inversion and experts fear it because it has historically preceded recessionary periods in the U.S. Still, recent U.S. economic data has been strong.
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Gold prices have gained nearly 13% this year owing to the protracted tariff dispute, which has fanned recessionary fears and prompted central banks around the world to ease interest rates.
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More specifically, an increase in tensions would lead to a rise in recessionary concerns and a decline in yields, leading to a rotation away from financials and toward bond proxies.
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Gold prices have gained nearly 15% this year owing to the protracted tariff dispute, which has fanned recessionary fears and prompted central banks around the world to ease interest rates.
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"The move into the long-end is also recessionary (12-33 months out) as the curve continues it way towards full inversion of the 2-year, 10-year spread," he added.
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To be sure, small caps have often underperformed large caps when the Federal Reserve has cut rates in non-recessionary periods, according to analysis from LPL Financial and Ned Davis Research.
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"Our market views are predicated on a supportive economic backdrop, with benign recessionary risks and a pickup in near-term indicators," strategist Jonathan Golub wrote in a note to clients Monday.
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"In a recessionary environment, you're not going to see casual diners get their sales back to pre-Covid 19 levels as quickly as many of us would have hoped," Setyan said.
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"The recessionary fallout of the Covid-19 outbreak on the global economy suggests investors are likely to continue to seek refuge in gold," analysts at BNP Paribas said in a note.
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And, true to form, raising taxes in a quasi-recessionary German economy sounds like Berlin's oxymoronic "austerity growth model" imposed on sinking and indebted euro area economies during the Great Recession.
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Oliver Harvey, U.K. macro and senior FX strategist at Deutsche Bank, said the election had distracted market attention from an "increasingly worrisome economic outlook," with many recessionary warning signs flashing red.
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What is not clear is how he would respond to another recessionary shock, Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, who himself transitioned from a policy hawk to dove while in office, told Reuters.
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In a note on Wednesday, Nomura said sterling could fall over 10-15 percent if Britain exited the EU. "Brexit is the fuel for a recessionary fire," they said in a note.
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Back then, the Fed embarked on a series of three interest rate cuts (75 basis points) in total, the catalyst being low inflation rather than a recessionary economy, remarkably similar to today.
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One example: Shares of JP Morgan fell 1.7% when CFO Marianne Lake said that "recessionary indicators ... are not flashing red, but they are off the floor" in February, as Reuters points out.
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Credit metrics have deteriorated at all three banks since 2014 (albeit to varying degrees), and we expect this trend to continue through 2016 as credit risks have heightened in the recessionary environment.
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At 2628, IHS Markit eurozone PMI for manufacturing has fallen further below the critical 28500 threshold to the weakest level in almost six years, signaling the sector is already experiencing recessionary conditions.
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But the bond market is generally more closely tethered to economic ups and downs than the stock market, and while it is suggesting slower growth ahead, it is not at recessionary levels.
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But slower revenue growth, declining worker-to-beneficiary ratios in state retirement systems, and rising Medicaid enrollments are widespread and have meant that fiscal stress is no longer confined to recessionary times.
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Moody's liquidity index on oil and gas companies increased to 21.4 percent in January from 19.6 percent in December, which is not far below its 24.5 percent recessionary peak in March 2009.
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JPMorgan Chase & Co shares fell 1.7 percent when finance chief Marianne Lake said that "recessionary indicators ... are not flashing red, but they are off the floor" at the bank's investor day in March.
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"This is recessionary behavior: As 2008's credit crunch forced HNWIs to clamp down on their luxury spending, it also saw an increase in the art, wine and precious stone markets," WealthInsight said.
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As recessionary fears cause longer-term interest rates to hover near or below short-term rates, the advantage that typically comes with adjustable rate mortgages has shrunk — or entirely disappeared — at some lenders.
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In Italy, problem loans have built up during a long recessionary period and it is only recently that the economy has started to give banks breathing space to start to tackle this legacy.
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"Weak demand, higher input costs and a death of confidence are all likely to continue to keep the manufacturing sector hovering around recessionary levels in 2016," BNP Paribas Securities economist Jeffrey Schultz said.
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As the world economy slows, the U.S. Federal Reserve is now openly discussing an interest rate cut designed to ensure a recessionary narrative does not take root and to keep the economy expanding.
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JPMorgan Chase & Co shares fell 1.7 percent when finance chief Marianne Lake said that "recessionary indicators ... are not flashing red, but they are off the floor" at the bank's investor day in February.
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SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Singapore industrial production for the month of June slipped to a near four-year low, according to official data on Friday, hit by a slowing electronics sector, leading to recessionary fears.
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and the Dow gained ground in a late rally on Thursday as upbeat retail sales data offset recessionary fears amid the simmering U.S.-China trade tensions.
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"EM has been on a tear the last few month — certainly a function of the macro story improving, recessionary fears fading a little bit [and] tariff news fading into the background," Agati said.
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That prospect — if it were to materialize — would force the Fed to accelerate its process of credit tightening, leading, as always in similar circumstances, to a slowing economic growth and unavoidable recessionary slippages.
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There&aposs also the equity-strategy team at Goldman Sachs, which has seen recessionary fears fade to such a degree that it&aposs now recommending investors buy cyclical stocks pegged to economic expansion.
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The boom eventually came to an end because a bubble in technology stocks popped—and, perhaps, because Mr Greenspan was less alert to recessionary signals than he had been to evidence of technological change.
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"As long as recessionary indicators do not rear their ugly head now is not the time to get defensive, in our view, but the time to look for opportunity amid the turmoil," she wrote.
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"What we find is that our customers are somewhat recessionary all the time — they're used to dealing with the world where they have maybe less savings, more income volatility — they get through," Rees said.
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Germany, the indisputable pace-setter of the European economy, keeps saying the same thing: There is no need for any support to its recessionary economy, which is expected to stagnate in the months ahead.
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LONDON (Reuters) - Global air freight volumes are falling at some of the fastest rates since the end of the great recession in a warning sign that recessionary forces are building in the world economy.
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They are all rated "Overweight" by Wilson's firm, and they all performed well following at least two of the last three recessionary sell-offs, which came in 1990-91, 2000-01, and 2007-09.
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"But a bigger risk is if the measure increases the propensity towards tax evasion," he said, adding that that could require even more measures later, something that could have an even larger recessionary effect.
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So basically use the power of leverage and go out because you're assuming that the deficit is going to create, I don't know, dare I say recessionary issues in the economy down the line?
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"Metal prices are discounting a 25 percent chance of a recessionary event being triggered by trade frictions and that compares with a much, much lower number 2-3 months ago," said Bernstein analyst Paul Gait.
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But before we get into the specifics of his call, it's important to note that he thinks the market's favorite recessionary indicator — one that is weighing heavily on investor psyche — is irrelevant in today's environment.
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A baseline trade-war scenario would shave from GDP 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points in the first year then 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points in the second year — significant, but not recessionary, according to BofAML.
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The reason was that -- as indicated by reliable leading indexes we've long monitored -- the US economy was not in a recessionary window of vulnerability on either of those occasions and could therefore weather those shocks.
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If the economy sours, cutting the federal funds rate from its current levels — around 2.4 percent — to near zero wouldn't offer nearly the stimulative boost that was delivered the last two times recessionary forces emerged.
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"There is little doubt that the COVID-2106.84 outbreak will slow global growth considerably this quarter, and we expect it to actually produce a rare non-recessionary contraction in GDP," said JPMorgan economist Joseph Lupton.
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"There is little doubt that the covid-2106.84 outbreak will slow global growth considerably this quarter, and we expect it to actually produce a rare non-recessionary contraction in GDP," said JPMorgan economist Joseph Lupton.
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"There is little doubt that the COVID-2106.84 outbreak will slow global growth considerably this quarter, and we expect it to actually produce a rare non-recessionary contraction in GDP," said JPMorgan economist Joseph Lupton.
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Gold prices had gained about 18% in 2019, as investors sought safe-haven assets on the back of global recessionary fears triggered by the long-drawn out trade spat between the United States and China.
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That occurred earlier this year, when the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield first dropped below that of the 3-month Treasury bill, a sign many on Wall Street read as a recessionary signal.
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Maybe this return to slow growth isn't a recessionary crash; maybe it's just a slowdown during which wage growth will continue to increase and organic demand will build to fuel real (not central bank-driven) growth.
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To do that, the White House should offer a vigorous support to ECB's easy monetary policy and pressure Germany to immediately stimulate its recessionary economy under threat of raising the U.S. import tariff on German cars.
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Gold has gained about 13% in 2019 alone on the back of global recessionary fears triggered by the long-drawn out trade spat between the world's two largest economies, and quantitative easing by major central banks.
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The scene soon disintegrated as a result of the erupting AIDS disaster and the end of a recessionary era, which brought the pressures of competition from a suddenly ravenous art market and the neighborhood's surging gentrification.
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"During recessionary periods, the federal share [of state budgets] tends to rise because state revenue drops, and there's sometimes federal stimulus money," said Anne Stauffer, director of the fiscal federalism project at the Pew Charitable Trusts.
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"The market continues to price in worst-case scenarios, a recessionary China and an energy sector that's looking basically like it should go bankrupt at this level," said Jeffrey A. Carbone, managing director of Cornerstone Financial Partners.
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A solid economy has led analysts to scour the globe for sources of worry, and because cars cost so much and the auto industry employs so many people, they've begun to attract attention as a recessionary indicator.
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And a composite PMI index compiled by JPMorgan slumped in February to its lowest since 25, the largest one-month drop on record – the bank is predicting what it calls a "rare non-recessionary contraction in GDP".
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That choice, when jobless rates were far below what was considered "full employment," helped spark the runaway inflation of the 1970s, and forced subsequent Fed officials to impose some of the most punishing, and recessionary, interest rates ever.
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James: Well certainly growth has slowed globally not going negative in terms of recessionary worries but we're not seeing the sort of optimism and forward leaning behavior that we saw in our CEOs just a few years ago.
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While risks from a recessionary environment in Brazil for Santander and foreign currency headwinds pose challenges for the banks, Fitch expects profitability in 2016 to be resilient and have upside potential, benefiting from sound economic growth in most countries.
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While U.S. money markets are pricing in roughly two rate hikes by January 2020 and the bond yield curve inverted further overnight, signalling rising recessionary risks for the world's biggest economy, demand for dollars show no signs of abating.
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Credit risks have increased in the recessionary environment, while borrower performance is also affected by external pressures, generally significant leverage in the corporate segment and loan dollarisation (BBK: 61%; BIB: 68%), and the share of hedged borrowers is limited.
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Analysts paid particular attention to comments from Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot who said that while the euro zone was not in recessionary territory, expectations for the second and third quarter were less favourable than the first quarter.
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Gold gained about 18% in 2019, fueled by investors seeking safe-haven assets on the back of global recessionary fears triggered by the long-drawn out trade spat between the United States and China, the world's two largest economies.
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If France, Italy, Spain and Portugal cave to German pressures to step up fiscal consolidation under conditions of an ongoing cyclical downturn, there is no way that the ECB could prevent more serious recessionary slippages within the monetary union.
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Emerging market assets and equities have got off to a poor start this year, as investors flocked to the safe haven of gold and government debt while flattening yield curves across markets indicate the world is skirting with recessionary risks.
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"That's makes people feel better and from our point of view that it makes it more likely that the technical bear market we've seen…is the likelihood that this going to be a shorter, shallower non-recessionary bear market," said Emanuel.
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The number of dealers also remains at a far lower level than the period leading up to, and during, the most recent recessionary period when there was a clear oversupply of dealers - particularly for US networks that issue DFP ABS.
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Wilson, the firm's chief U.S. equity strategist, sees defensive bond proxies outperforming growth names by 10% as the U.S.-China trade war weighs on consumer sentiment, which adds to a long list of recessionary indicators that are already flashing red.
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"The mammoth crude inventory draw has, at least for the time being, put to rest those U.S. recessionary doom and gloom fears that have been hanging over oil markets like a dark cloud," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at Valour Markets.
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"The mammoth crude inventory draw has, at least for the time being, put to rest those U.S. recessionary doom and gloom fears that have been hanging over oil markets like a dark cloud," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at Valour Markets.
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If the supply of qualified labor is not increased, an attempt to force faster growth through explosive policy mixes (a combination of cheap money and lower taxes) will quickly run into capacity bottlenecks to cause inflation bursts and recessionary relapses.
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The economy grew at a 2.1% annual rate in the July-September quarter, and the annual pace is thought to be slowing to roughly 1.5% to 2% in the final three months of the year — sluggish but far from recessionary.
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If calendar day effects and the timing of the survey week are a factor behind the weaker-than-expected May employment report, and we believe they are, then we are inclined to downplay any negative signal about heightened recessionary risks.
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The program is important for just about every American at or near poverty, and is an important counter-recessionary force during downturns (when its ranks swell automatically, pumping more government cash into the economy), but it's particularly crucial for the extreme poor.
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The S&P fell almost 2 percent that day as yield curve inversions are widely viewed as recessionary indicators and this one occurred two days after the U.S. Federal Reserve pulled back on expected rate hikes amid signs of slowing economic growth.
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"If the U.S. economic landscape remains non-recessionary, if we continue to see gains in several of the major data points that have provided for a fairly constructive, maybe not equity market, but economic narrative, then we see some traction," said Kenny.
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The gap between Germany's two-year and 10-year bond yields narrowed further to 85.70 basis points, the tightest in 17 months, after parts of the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted for the first time in over a decade, hinting at recessionary expectations.
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Both U.S. and China have imposed a series of tit-for-tat tariffs over the past 15 months, stirring global recessionary fears and driving gold prices more than 17% higher this year, but the recent development has put a lid on gains.
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ISTANBUL (Reuters) - Turkey's economy grew 20.4% in the fourth quarter and expanded 21% in the year as a whole, just above the government forecast, a Reuters poll showed on Monday as the country shook off the recessionary impact of a 28.6 currency crisis.
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But by the time the Fed sees signs of an activity downturn and subsiding inflation, the economy could be into an irretrievable tailspin as a result of a lagged recessionary impact of interest rate increases that went beyond the necessary policy restraint.
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Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot said that while the euro zone was not in recessionary territory, expectations for the second and third quarter were less favourable than the first quarter and that the ECB was determined to act in adverse scenarios.
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TOKYO, Aug 19 (Reuters) - Japanese government bond yields edged up on Monday, moving further away from three-year lows hit late last week, as hopes of fresh stimulus measures from major economies soothed some of the recent global recessionary fears that crept up among investors.
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Fears of a U.S. recession have escalated on the back of a protracted trade war between the United States and China, with yields on 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes last week inverting for the first time since 2007 in a classic recessionary signal.
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First, we have President Ronald Reagan who dared us to dream of how cutting taxes and boosting the defense budget would economically and militarily bring the U.S.S.R. to its knees and effectively end the recessionary 1970s and the Cold War without firing a shot.
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The German and Italian economies, considered Europe's premier manufacturing powerhouses, are hovering close to recessionary territory and remain susceptible to several external risks, such as Brexit, the U.S.-China trade war, Iran, a Chinese economic slowdown and potential U.S. tariffs on European car imports.
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" According to a policy brief from the Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin Madison, "In a typical year over the 1988–2011 period, SNAP lowers the poverty rate by 5% to 10%, and this effect is stronger in recessionary periods.
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"The robust U.S. economic data released overnight is providing some degree of comfort as it suggests a less gloomy U.S. domestic outlook and will walk back some of the more immediate recessionary concerns," Stephen Innes, managing partner at VM Markets, said in a note.
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The S&P 500 index fell 1.8% in August, its biggest monthly drop since May, after escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and the inversion of a key part of the U.S. yield curve, seen as a recessionary signal, drove investors toward safe-haven assets.
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By thus "recycling" OPEC's newfound oil wealth back to its customers, the I.M.F. mitigated the recessionary impact of the rise in oil prices on the world economy, ensuring that oil-consuming nations had the money to pay for imports and thus sustain world trade.
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That would have a lot of negative effects that could actually not only have a recessionary effect in the British economy, but also on the Irish economy, the Spanish, the Dutch, the Belgian economy so that would have a significant negative impact on the economy.
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But I fully recognize that we're also in the late stage of what's been a very long recovery led by the U.S. and the idea that we could have an economic slowdown driven by some sort of recessionary pressures in the U.S. or Europe is real.
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Having thrown millions of Europeans into unemployment, poverty and destitution with the imposition of harsh fiscal austerity on countries already choking under recessionary pressures, Germany continues to challenge the ECB's conduct of independent policies with instruments and credit intermediation channels that are strictly within its mandate.
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With its huge trade surpluses, Berlin not only lives nicely off the rest of the world, but it also continues to push fiscal austerity on its euro partners and keeps calling on the European Central Bank (ECB) to throw away the life jacket of euro area's recessionary economies.
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An overwhelmingly negative vote is expected to vent people's discontent with a recessionary and stagnating economy over the last five years, high and rising unemployment (11.7 percent), nearly 40 percent of the country's youth without work and a meaningful future, and a debilitating public debt of 160 percent of GDP.
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"I think recessionary conditions are definitely a risk and we're dealing with so much uncertainty now on how this virus situation unfolds and what the economic impact turns out to be, nobody really knows," Dennis Lockhart, Atlanta Fed president from 2007 to 53, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Monday.
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"I think recessionary conditions are definitely a risk and we're dealing with so much uncertainty now on how this virus situation unfolds and what the economic impact turns out to be, nobody really knows," Dennis Lockhart, Atlanta Fed president from 2007 to 2017, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Monday.
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"One area of concern is whether a Powell-led (Federal Open Market Committee) would be as aggressive or proactive as a Yellen-led FOMC would be...in terms of confronting recessionary shocks," said former Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, who is now an economics professor at the University of Rochester.
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There is some concern about a bubble forming within the halls of the Federal Reserve, so if you got it to pull back, then you could look that there's no earnings, the numbers are not the greatest, they're not recessionary but they're not the greatest, and the slowdown in the global economy.
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He points to the substantial amount of government spending buffeting the economy — "one of the largest non-recessionary fiscal accommodations in the post-war era" — and the accelerating annual growth of real U.S. money supply as factors that should give the stock market a boost for at least the rest of the year.
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And if indeed the U.S. economy will consolidate recovery so that the Fed sees as appropriate to continue to increase rates that's a good sign for the world economy because it proves that a major country is getting out of the recessionary period after the crisis and getting away also from the zero lower band of interest rates.
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" Asked whether broader financial turmoil could threaten this growth, Mane declined to make predictions about the US economy, but she said, "The smarter brands, the ones who got through recessionary economies, typically up their advertising and promotional spend when people were tightening their belts — you needed to be there when they were going to spend money.
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But when economic growth is milquetoast and the reality is that inflation is too low, not too high (with the risk of outright deflation in the event of a recessionary shock), there is no reason whatsoever for the monetary and fiscal authorities to act independently — as if they were oil and water — in pursuit of the common public good.
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