Meanwhile, according to 1H16 outturns, capital spending will be below budget.
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Recent GDP outturns for some of the largest economies, including Spain, have exceeded expectations.
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Outturns for the first few months of the current fiscal year indicate revenue has grown strongly.
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As Fitch's estimates from January 2017 were broadly in line with credit growth outturns, there are few changes.
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The Danish economy grew at a relatively robust pace in 2016, at 1.7%, following weak outturns in 2H15.
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Stronger fiscal outturns over the last 18 months give us greater confidence in the sustainability of moderate primary surpluses.
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Fitch's deficit numbers include estimated extra-budgetary spending of 2.6% of GDP, and the 2016 fiscal outturns are still preliminary.
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Recent public finance outturns point to an undershoot in the government deficit for this year compared with the last review's projections.
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While budgetary outturns are now more uncertain as a result, Fitch does not expect a return to significant deficit over the medium term.
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These outturns are better than what we anticipated at the previous rating review (-2.2% and -2.5% of GDP in 2016 and 2017 respectively).
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Equatorial Guinea (not rated) is also a significant contributor to the regional reserve pool, and its fiscal settings and outturns will be relevant.
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Economic and fiscal outturns since we affirmed Latvia's 'A-'/Stable sovereign rating on 6 November 2015 have been close to or slightly better than our forecasts.
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Our forecast reflects the view that expenditure outturns will be kept below budget, a track record that Taiwan has maintained every year since at least 1975.
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Based on 0003H16 outturns and 2015 budget performance, we maintain somewhat conservative forecasts for growth in revenue from free trade zones, real estate & healthcare, and oil & gas.
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"The underperformance of the bonds also relates to the large February issuance, where a lot of investors participated with the expectation of lower inflation outturns," she said.
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Overall, against a backdrop of generally better-than-expected GDP growth outturns in 3Q16, our global growth forecasts have been revised up by 0.1pp in both 2016 and 2017.
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We have revised our real GDP forecast for 2016 to a 1% contraction from 0.5% growth to reflect 443 outturns, lower oil prices and the impact of the latest cuts.
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According to preliminary 10M17 outturns the deficit was already higher than budgeted for the full year, despite oil prices averaging higher than the government's assumption of USD45 a barrel (bbl).
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MPI scores are updated to reflect outturns for 2016 and coverage has been expanded to include the Maldives (MPI 1), the sovereign rating of which has been newly assigned this year.
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"While the recent inflation outturns are underpinned by factors outside monetary policy... the BSP (central bank) reiterates its strong commitment to take necessary policy actions to safeguard inflation targets," he said.
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"Recent inflation outturns of around 4% in Brazil and Russia are very low by historical standards and are opening up space for further monetary easing in both countries," said Brian Coulton, Chief Economist at Fitch.
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"Smaller outturns of wheat, barley and sorghum are expected to be offset by a better maize harvest," the IGC said, forecasting a total grains crop of 20153 billion tonnes, marginally up from the previous season's 22015 billion tonnes.
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Overall expenditure is budgeted to rise by 3.5% in FY443 compared with the preliminary FY16 outturns, as low budgeted growth in the wage bill and transfers and subsidies offsets budgeted declines in goods and services and capital spending.
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Consequently, the overall adjustment of four notches reflects the following adjustments:- -Macro: -1 notch, to reflect the fact that GDP growth figures (including the exceptional 2015 outturns) do not entirely reflect real developments in the economy; and macroeconomic data is subject to large revisions.
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However, our new Brent oil price assumptions (USD52.5/bbl in 2018 and USD55/bbl in 13) and budget outturns revealed in the latest bond prospectus mean we now expect deficits to narrow less in the coming two years, to 12.1% in 2018 and 10.9% in 2019 (2.3pp and 2.6pp wider, respectively, than our previous forecasts).
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Manual rice mill in Vietnam Milling to remove the outer coats from a grain may take place in one or more stages. For paddy rice considerable mechanical effort is needed to remove these layers. Any weakness in the kernel will be apparent at this stage. Even with grain in perfect condition, correctly set milling and polishing machinery is essential to yield high processing outturns.
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Complete separation of edible from less-desired products is always difficult to achieve but, even so, there are significant differences in milling efficiency. In the case of rice, milling outturns can vary from 60% or less to around 67%, depending on the efficiency of the mill. Even a 1% increase in yield of whole grain rice can thus result in huge increases in national food resources. Grains are produced on a seasonal basis.
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The OBR produces five-year forecasts for the economy and public finances twice a year. The forecasts accompany the Chancellor's Budget Statement and his Spring Statement and they incorporate the impact of any tax and spending measures announced by the Chancellor. Details of the forecasts are set out in the Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) publications. The annual Forecast evaluation report (FER) published each autumn, examines how the EFO forecasts compare to subsequent outturns.
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The study claims to demonstrate mathematically that VA is an inefficient investment strategy since the same outturns can be generated using other strategies which require less total cash to be invested. In addition, compared to other strategies, VA requires more active management, and a large “side fund” of cash or liquid assets which can be used to make the periodic investments required by VA. It concludes that “VA’s popularity appears to be due to investors making a cognitive error in assuming that its higher IRR implies higher expected profits”. The study accepts that VA will tend to outperform when there is mean reversion in market returns (e.g. a high return one month tends to be followed by a low return the following month).
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