Wilson warned of further "hurdles" to clear, including more negative economic and earnings data and the need for the Fed to shift from a more dovish tone to more dovish action.
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But the market was hoping for a more dovish outlook.
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Since that time the Fed has sounded much more dovish.
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Conversely, anything more dovish could keep the dollar pinned down.
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The new plot is noticably more dovish than in December.
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Fed rhetoric, though, has shifted to more dovish tones lately.
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More dovish remarks from the BoE could send sterling even lower.
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Bullard, however, struck a more dovish note in his Monday remarks.
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A more dovish Fed is now priced in to the market.
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"The language was a bit more dovish than expected," he said.
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But Fed officials, in recent comments, began to sound more dovish, pointing to concerns about financial conditions overseas Traders had been hoping for a dovish sounding Fed chairman but Powell was even more dovish than expected.
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But the overall tone of today's statement was a little more dovish.
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S. trade deal, and more dovish stance by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
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The more dovish outlook saw the yen strengthen against the weakened dollar.
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DID YOU BECOME MORE DOVISH AFTER YOUR TIME AT THE FINANCE MINISTRY?
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The action showed some early pricing of hopes for a more dovish Fed.
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The dollar moved lower, as the market viewed Powell's comments as more dovish.
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Some are nationalist, some economic nationalist, some more dovish, and some defy categorization.
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While central banks globally are adopting a more dovish outlook, investors remain worried.
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The more dovish outlook was largely due to domestic factors, according to Westpac.
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Central banks around the world have taken a more dovish approach, boosting markets.
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The rates outlook was significantly more dovish than financial markets had bargained for.
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Unlike in July, we think Chair Powell will strike a more dovish tone.
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Some dovishness has been priced in so it's difficult to be more dovish.
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"The general perception is that there's no one more dovish than Yellen," he said.
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Investors see a more dovish Fed as less of an impediment to economic growth.
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Below-target inflation has caused some more dovish Fed policymakers to want to wait.
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I think the tone might be a little more dovish, especially on the Euro.
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So you can say that the bank is tapering in a more dovish way.
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He is viewed as one of the more dovish members of the central bank.
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But ECB policymakers are striking a subtly more dovish tone in their public pronouncements.
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We'll see during the press conference whether the tone is a little more dovish.
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"There is some risk that we could see a more dovish outlook," he said.
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Bolton's hawkish tendencies could seem out of line with Trump's more dovish campaign rhetoric.
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The more dovish tilt came without any changes in expectations for U.S. economic growth.
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Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's more dovish stance also helped to boost investor risk appetite.
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I would describe this as indicating an incrementally more dovish posture from the Fed.
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The Bank of Canada has been one of the central banks to turn more dovish.
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Some investors suspect the central bank may sound more dovish given the uncertain global backdrop.
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Equity investors, meanwhile, might think that a more dovish Fed would be good for stocks.
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I have John Bolton and other people that are a little more dovish than him.
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But the Fed has come under pressure from President Trump to be more dovish still.
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At year's end, some of Johnson's more dovish advisers again pleaded for adjustments in strategy.
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I thought the language would be even more dovish, and I think that's what caused it.
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A reserved former banker, Kishida, 60, hails from a more dovish faction of the conservative LDP.
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That comes with any new data that show Trump taking a more dovish stance towards China.
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Market participants viewed the overall tone from the U.S. central bank as more dovish than expected.
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Not today so much but do we start seeing a much more dovish narrative going forward?
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Armstrong added that in combination with more dovish monetary policy, fiscal stimulus is on the way.
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He expects a more dovish central bank to emerge as economic growth and inflation remain modest.
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The Fed retained its forecast for three rate hikes this year, more dovish than some expected.
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"But for the rally to really continue, I think the most important thing we're watching out for is whether the global economy starts responding to a more dovish Fed, a more dovish ECB, to more stimulus from China," Hui told reporters in Hong Kong on Thursday.
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A weak dollar and a more dovish Federal Reserve has also aided the investment case for bullion.
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" TIM GHRISKEY, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, INVERNESS COUNSEL, NEW YORK "There's some disappointment that they weren't more dovish.
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Given the weakness in the data, the Federal Reserve could turn more dovish in its next meetings.
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A more-dovish-than-expected central bank meeting last week continued to weigh on the single currency.
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A more dovish-sounding U.S. Federal Reserve has also prompted global investors to plow into riskier assets.
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The meeting comes after the European Central Bank on Tuesday turned more dovish than markets had expected.
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But as the Fed adopted a more dovish stance on fiscal policy, the market heated up again.
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With the Federal Reserve becoming more dovish, Clissold believes fundamentals point to a healthier market this year.
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Investors viewed the central bank's release and comments from Chair Jerome Powell as more dovish than expected.
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Doubts grew, however, that the BOJ would take a more dovish stance at its meeting on Sept.
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"The Fed has become more dovish than expected and we're seeing the dollar sell-off, " said Gordon.
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This has led some market investors to believe that Trump will opt for a more dovish nominee.
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"It is very uncertain, when most of the central banks globally have become more dovish," Warjiyo said.
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Democrats remain more dovish, with only 16% viewing China as an "adversary," compared to 20203% of Republicans.
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One is the market interpreted the Fed as being a little more dovish than people had thought.
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Powell denounced any idea the Fed was caving to political pressure by taking a more dovish approach.
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"All things considered, it's slightly more dovish than one might have expected," ING economist James Smith said.
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"The speech read more dovish than his prior remarks but was not, in our view, a dovish speech."
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Do they lower the dot projection from three to two or is it even more dovish than that?
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A surprise move considering that disappointing data usually increases the chances of a central bank being more dovish.
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The central bank pivoted and adopted a more dovish stance after its hike in December sent markets reeling.
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He's much more dovish on China and far more concerned about climate change than Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
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In this sense, Clinton is far more dovish and far less likely to lead the US into conflict.
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As far as the general tenor, it's hard to see it more dovish than it was on Jan.
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After the more dovish Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo spoke, that had fallen to a 20 percent chance.
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Some of the more dovish Fed officials would like to see rising inflation before they hike interest rates.
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"The Riksbank was a little more dovish than expected, on the margin," Knut Hallberg, economist at Swedbank, said.
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And on immigration, Mormon voters much more dovish than the immigration hardliners currently shaping the debate in Washington.
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"They're clearly turning toward a more dovish direction," said Roberto Perli, an economist at Cornerstone Macro in Washington.
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Following other major central banks, the BOE "is turning more dovish," said Lee Hardman, currency analyst at MUFG.
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The central bank struck a more dovish tone than investors had expected after last week's strong employment data.
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Concerns that low U.S. inflation could lead to a more dovish Federal Reserve have also hurt the greenback.
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Stovall said stocks would respond positively if Powell were to moderate his rate hiking tone and sound more dovish.
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"If there's a silver lining to the policy uncertainty is it probably keeps central banks more dovish," Zidle said.
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It has grown mostly because respondents believe Yellen has become more dovish, while Fischer has remained about the same.
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On the margins, a more dovish Fed and neutral ECB, BOJ and BoE is a drag on the dollar.
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On the global front, the European Central Bank issued a more dovish policy statement than the market was expecting.
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"Financial conditions have eased in recent weeks, stemming from a significantly more dovish communication by the Fed," Bovino said.
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Her more dovish successor, Moon Jae-in, campaigned on a promise to put the issue to the country's Parliament.
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The Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates on Wednesday and was more dovish than strategists and economists expected.
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European stock markets firmed, while the dollar rose as rival currencies struggled following more dovish indications from central banks.
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Powell is seen as more dovish than other contenders for the post, such as Stanford University economist John Taylor.
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"Markets were anticipating a more dovish rate hike, that is crystal clear," said Christoph Rieger, rates strategist at Commerzbank.
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Increasingly, investors are concerned that more dovish central bank policies globally will not be enough to stimulate international growth.
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Powell is viewed as similar to Yellen on monetary policy and more dovish than other members of the Fed.
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However, Guha said incoming committee members could take a more dovish policy view, setting up possible conflicts ahead. 5.
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There was also a meeting of the European Central Bank and more dovish talk from ECB President Mario Draghi.
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"We expect the ECB to turn more dovish and push the euro lower," said CBA FX analyst Joseph Capurso.
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Powell is seen as more dovish than Warsh, who has criticized the Fed's bond-buying program in the past.
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It goes against what the market got last week out of Powell when he painted a more dovish picture.
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Williams, while sounding more conciliatory especially on plans to shed assets, did not commit to a more dovish monetary policy.
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However, equities have rallied since June as the Fed and other global central banks signaled they were becoming more dovish.
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Against the backdrop of a bitter trade war, the Fed and other major central banks have turned more dovish recently.
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"We think that the Governing Council is likely to sound more dovish than these (projections) would warrant," Morgan Stanley said.
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Several economists expect Copom to insert more dovish language in its policy statement, paving the way for an eventual cut.
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Market players are also keeping an eye on the Federal Reserve, which has been taking a more dovish approach recently.
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These fears have also led the Federal Reserve to adopt a far more dovish outlook on further interest rate increases.
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Those fears have also led the Federal Reserve to adopt a far more dovish posture on further interest rate increases.
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The more dovish tone prompted markets to price in a chance that the bank might actually cut rates this year.
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This is partly as a result of a more dovish Fed, but it's making life more complicated for central bankers.
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Source: FactSet Haldane's remarks come in stark contrast to a more dovish tone struck by BOE Governor Mark Carney recently.
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Some strategists say stocks are primed for a selloff should the Fed fail to take an even more dovish tilt.
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"The minutes are more dovish than the policy statement," said Alberto Ramos, head of Latin American research at Goldman Sachs.
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The U.S. central bank was more dovish than anticipated, causing those who had been buying dollars to reverse those positions.
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The euro rapidly appreciated to over $1.18 after the Fed turned more dovish, as confirmed by the latest ECB minutes.
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" "There is really nothing to point to what the market had hoped, that there would be a more dovish stance.
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Powell wasn't more dovish than what we saw in January, but he's certainly less hawkish than he was last year.
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Central banks have turned more dovish this year as they look to avert an economic slowdown, led by the Federal Reserve.
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The dollar has fallen more than 5003 percent against the yen so far this year, partly on a more dovish Fed.
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As recession worries resurface, investors wonder whether the Federal Reserve could turn more dovish as the year comes to an end.
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The minutes did suggest the Fed's policymakers are split between two camps, but those appear to be Dovish and More Dovish.
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With other major central banks turning more dovish, there is also room for further declines in market interest rates in China.
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"Powell was a bit more dovish than the market had expected," said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates at Amerivet Securities.
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The dollar has fallen more than 8 percent against the yen so far this year, partly on a more dovish Fed.
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"If the Fed takes a more dovish view, I think it will provide a relief [for the U.S. economy]," he said.
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However, a more dovish tone from the Fed has aided in some recent dollar weakening, which has boosted emerging markets' performance.
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Yields have been falling since last week, when the Federal Reserve raised rates but provided a more dovish outlook than expected.
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As central banks compete for more dovish policies, however, they threaten to cancel each other out, making each move less effective.
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"A more dovish Fed further reinforces our view since November that BI's hiking cycle is over," Nomura said in a Feb.
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"Still, the rumors trigger some selling and buying, on perceptions of who might be more dovish or more hawkish," he said.
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"The appointment of a more dovish candidate as the next governor would raise the chances of further monetary loosening," Shah said.
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The prospect of a more dovish at the Fed underscores the concern with which central banks are assessing the global economy.
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Shares dropped initially, but recovered following a fall in the euro and bonds yields as Draghi struck a more dovish tone.
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Yet Merolla and Elizabeth Zechmeister have found evidence suggesting that Democrats, as the more dovish party, wouldn't necessarily get that boost.
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With him gone, Trump may have more leeway to indulge his more dovish instincts, which rarely match big talk with action.
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Successive Italian governments have long held a more dovish position toward Russia compared with most other European countries, including on relaxing sanctions.
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More central banks in the region are "adopting a more dovish outlook," said Julia Goh, a Malaysia-based economist with UOB Bank.
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His resignation is likely to make the RBI more dovish over monetary policy and more willing to cut interest rates, economists said.
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CNBC's Jim Cramer said Wednesday that Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen took a more dovish-than-expected stance for one specific reason.
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"They want more time to assess and as a result, they sounded a bit more dovish than we would've expected," she said.
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Both those factors might tend to make the Fed forecast overstated, if Yellen is more dovish than the Fed as a whole.
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"The fact central banks seem willing to let markets price in a lot more dovish expectations has really helped sentiment," he said.
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The risk that Yellen could tweak her outlook in a more dovish direction kept traders on tenterhooks and limited the dollar's gains.
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"The new governor may be a little more dovish than we had anticipated," said William Jackson of Capital Economics in a note.
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He seems more dovish than neoconservatives like Marco Rubio, and less dismissive of the social safety net than libertarians like Rand Paul.
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Bullard said "this is not a good situation to have", as the market is more dovish than the most dovish FOMC member.
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For the month, the loonie was down 0.9% after it was pressured by a more dovish stance from the Bank of Canada.
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At that point they expect China to wait out the rest of Mr. Trump's term and hope for a more dovish successor.
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That was more dovish than people were expecting at the margin, even though the market was looking for a dovish Fed today.
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But with Fed officials sounding more dovish and concerned about global growth, the Fed as an issue has fallen into the background somewhat.
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The rally followed a better-than-expected December jobs report and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicating a more dovish tone.
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"Based on the initial move, the market was hoping for more dovish language," said Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners.
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When Cotton and Perdue introduced their proposal in February, it received some poor reviews from Republicans who are more dovish on immigration. Sen.
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"Market participants are more confident about the Fed as its two-day meeting starts, particularly as the ECB is sounding more dovish," Markets.
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The pound found buyers versus the dollar as Powell's speech to an annual research symposium was taken to be more dovish than expected.
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On Wednesday, the market interpreted a more dovish Fed behind the wheel of the economy and both gold and equities rose in tandem.
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That is especially true since the U.S. Federal Reserve has taken a more dovish stance on interest rates, which help fuel bank profits.
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The bulk of the week's gains came Wednesday after the Fed raised rates, as expected, but took a more dovish tone than expected.
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Uysal, who has served as deputy governor for three years, is known as one of the more dovish of the bank's rate setters.
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With the Federal Reserve more dovish than expected on March 16, many on Wall Street are predicting a weaker U.S. dollar from here.
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"The Fed's outlook was more dovish that some had anticipated," said Tadashi Matsukawa, head of fixed income investment in Tokyo at PineBridge Investments.
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But Streible said that after riding recent gains, traders are repositioning more defensively as the Federal Reserve readjusts to a more dovish stance.
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"The statement is definitely more dovish than the earlier policy regime," said A Prasanna, economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership Ltd in Mumbai.
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Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones in St. Louis, said the Fed's statement was "pretty much as expected" but slightly more dovish.
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Memories from the financial strains in the fourth quarter of 2018 will likely inspire a more dovish stance all other things being equal.
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"Traders sold the dollar yesterday, on hopes today's Fed would be even more dovish," said Kengo Suzuki, chief FX strategist at Mizuho Securities.
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Interest rate traders have been far more dovish and still see no change this year, but they softened their easing bias on Thursday.
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Put another way, 40 percent of the committee is more hawkish than the median for 2019 while just 27 percent is more dovish.
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Another concern is that the U.S. team is now led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, more dovish on trade than other administration officials.
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" Luke Tilley, chief economist, Wilmington Trust, Wilmington, Delaware "The Fed moved in a much more dovish direction than anticipated on the rate hikes.
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But advocates of a more dovish stance toward China are likely to take comfort in Trump's decision to approach the issue more carefully.
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Later on Tuesday, more dovish talk was expected from the U.S. Federal Reserve, with five policymakers including Chairman Jerome Powell having speaking engagements.
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The ECB's decision is due at 1145 GMT, with President Mario Draghi due to speak at 1230 GMT "Today we are only going to get more dovish talks but it will be the last time that they will be able to get away with just more dovish communication before they have to act," said Bert Colijn, senior eurozone economist at ING in Amsterdam.
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Sanders's positioning is generally the reverse of this — also broadly continuous with Obama's approach but shading in a more left-wing, more dovish direction.
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Despite a string of events that has seemed to push the central bank into a more dovish posture, a December hike now seems inevitable.
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" PRAVEEN KORAPATY, GLOBAL HEAD OF INTEREST RATE STRATEGY, CREDIT SUISSE IN NEW YORK: "It was a little more dovish than our economists were expecting.
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However, the dollar has already come under some pressure from a recent shift by the U.S. Federal Reserve to a slightly more dovish stance.
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Trump himself appeared to have been hoping for a more dovish speech from the Fed chair and took to Twitter to register his complaint.
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"The reality is the Fed is a powerful force, and it's signaling that it is willing to get a lot more dovish," said Hooper.
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There is growing speculation the European Central Bank could shift to a more dovish footing at next week's policy meeting, albeit leaving rates unchanged.
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The characterization was a key part of the Fed "pivot" earlier this year that signaled to the market a more dovish approach to rates.
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So Clinton is very hawkish if you judge her one kind of foreign policy challenge, but more dovish if you judge her on another.
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"That was more dovish than people were expecting at the margin, even though the market was looking for a dovish Fed today," said Tomes.
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"The ECB will likely present a more dovish forward guidance next week, allowing rate expectations to move lower again," said Mizuho strategist Peter Chatwell.
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The dollar failed to shrug off pressure from the Fed minutes released on Wednesday, which were more dovish than some market participants had expected.
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Since the Fed this year turned more dovish, amid slowing global growth, some Asian central banks including Malaysia and the Philippines have cut rates.
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"If the minutes suggest a deviation, whether them being more hawkish or more dovish, that may cause the market to change direction," Sarhan said.
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For sure, the stock market enjoys nothing more than a Fed that is far more dovish than domestic economic conditions demand (see 1998-1999).
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A majority of analysts anticipate one more hike in 2019, though recent data has clouded the outlook and could force a more dovish tone.
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"It was a little bit more dovish than most had thought," said Richard Scalone, co-head of foreign exchange at TJM Brokerage in Chicago.
|
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Around the same time, another article said the the much more dovish Fed Chair Janet Yellen for another term, helping to push yields lower.
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That in turn has led to a more dovish monetary policy stance in those economies in relation to that pursued in the United States.
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The data came after the Federal Reserve was also seen as adopting a more dovish tone at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday.
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Brainard is considered one of the Fed's more dovish members, meaning she is more inclined to leave rates lower in order to strengthen employment.
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" LARRY MILSTEIN, HEAD OF GOVERNMENT AND AGENCY TRADING, R.W. PRESSPRICH & CO., NEW YORK "Powell's comments were a little more dovish than I had expected.
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Also this year the FOMC loses some of its more dovish voices, like Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans.
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" And a slightly more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve, according to Gordon, is the reason the dollar has suffered a "very sharp decline.
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He has historically been more dovish on rate hikes, but is not a voting member of the Fed's interest-rate-setting committee this year.
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His resignation would also mean the RBI is likely to be more dovish over monetary policy and willing to cut interest rates, economists said.
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"I have John Bolton and I have other people that are a little more dovish than him and ultimately I make the decision," Trump said.
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"You can say that the bank is tapering in a more dovish way," Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets, said in a note.
|
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A parade of Fed officials also sounded more dovish recently, including Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, who has flagged slowing global growth as an issue.
|
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It was the weakest major currency in the world Tuesday morning after the Reserve Bank of Australia changed its statement to a more dovish stance.
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A more dovish tone from the Fed last week has led markets to question how many times the central bank will hike rates in 2019.
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Still, Canada's economy barely grew in the fourth quarter and last week the Bank of Canada turned more dovish on the outlook for interest rates.
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At the same time, the markets have written off the Fed and believe after its last meeting it was signaling an even more dovish tone.
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President Donald Trump is likely to pick Fed Governor Jerome Powell, who is seen as more dovish, as the next head, sources have told Reuters.
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The data merely reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will stay patient on rates and could even sound more dovish at its policy meeting next week.
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Overall, a more dovish Fed should support risky assets, in particular high yield credit that benefits both from falling yields as well as economic growth.
|
|
Now, Fed officials are getting more dovish in the face of weak U.S. inflation data, reducing the likelihood of a third rate hike this year.
|
|
All nine rate-setters on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted for no change, marking a more dovish decision than last month's 8-1 vote.
|
|
But markets had anticipated a much more dovish announcement: a larger cut to interest rates and, perhaps, an expansion in the ECB's asset-buying programme.
|
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This aligned with more-dovish-than-expected rhetoric from the Fed, which has wanted to avoid an extreme divergence in policy from other central banks.
|
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"The market talked itself into expecting a more dovish outcome from the Fed than they got," said David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial.
|
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The dollar rose as rival currencies struggled following more dovish indications from central banks, making dollar-denominated metals more expensive for holders of other currencies.
|
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Inflation looks like it may pick up, the Federal Reserve could hike rates again in December, while the European Central Bank is sounding more dovish.
|
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The result would be an even more dovish Fed when it comes to removing the historically aggressive policy accommodation in place since the financial crisis.
|
|
By comparison, the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the European Central Bank have taken a more dovish approach to monetary policy.
|
|
"It's also notable that changes to the voting bloc of the FOMC in 2020 will mean more consensus" as the committee's makeup gets more dovish.
|
|
Now, some strategists see interest rate hikes pushed back slightly later in the year as Yellen took on a tone more dovish than was expected.
|
|
Canada's central bank shifted to a more dovish stance in October as it cut its economic growth forecasts and expressed concern about global trade risks.
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DOLLAR GAINS In currency markets, the dollar gained with other major central banks expected to tilt to a more dovish stance than the Federal Reserve.
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The U.S. currency underperformed particularly against the yen as global stock markets sank after the Fed dashed investor hopes for a more dovish policy stance.
|
|
"Both the stock and bond markets applauded the Fed for its more dovish tone," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.
|
|
The euro rose because investors had expected an even more dovish signal from the ECB and an acknowledgement of weak economic growth in the bloc.
|
|
The greenback has already come under some pressure from the recent subtle shift in the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy communication to a slightly more dovish stance.
|
|
"If the Fed adopts a more dovish stance, we should see the dollar quickly retreat and that should give gold an opportunity to rally," Streible said.
|
|
Chief economist Peter Praet struck a more dovish tone, warning that the inflation rise could stall or even reverse if the ECB removed stimulus too early.
|
|
"What we are seeing is the market positioning for potentially a more dovish tone tomorrow," said Minh Trang, senior currency trader at California's Silicon Valley Bank.
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Analysts expect the new MPC to be more dovish than its predecessor, even though Polish interest rates are already at a record low of 1.5 percent.
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"There's no doubt there's been a shift in sentiment towards a more dovish Fed," said Charlie Ripley, senior market strategist for Allianz Investment Management in Minneapolis.
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The search for a replacement for Draghi is seen as pitting the ECB's hawkish northern members against southern European countries viewed as more dovish on policy.
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True, even in his more dovish phase, Mr Trump seemed obsessed with nuclear weapons: the prospect of Mr Kim being able to nuke Manhattan horrifies him.
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Fed Chair Janet Yellen's more dovish tone will likely resonate again in financial markets Wednesday, as investors look to private payroll data and more Fed speak.
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The Federal Reserve appears to be taking a more dovish approach to the markets, but Victoria Fernandez suggests it's not enough to keep the markets stabilized.
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First off, one of the reasons the market rallied in mid-February was because everyone thought central banks would be more dovish on the global slowness.
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And conversely, the former secretary of state is also making an implied case that the more dovish Sanders would be a liability in a general election.
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Commerzbank analysts also flagged this possibility in a note, saying the Cohn resignation increases chances for a more dovish message from the ECB after Thursday's meeting.
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Since then it has recovered against the dollar, which has dropped against most currencies as the Federal Reserve has sounded more dovish on further rate increases.
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The central bank has been an outlier with its plans to hike rates while most policymakers turn more dovish in the face of worsening global growth.
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But economists see the central bank this year adopting a more dovish stance as inflation falls, and expect an interest rate cut in the coming months.
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Investors say much of this year's gain for stocks has stemmed from a change in outlook by the Fed to more dovish on interest rate policy.
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A more dovish Fed also gives greater Beijing breathing room to juice the Chinese economy with looser monetary policy, which tends to drive money into stocks.
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Such easing expectations in the United States and a more dovish Chinese central bank drove long-end swap points to the highest level since March 2018.
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For instance, the Federal Reserve and other central banks can react to weak economic or market data by easing policy or signaling a more dovish stance.
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The euro rose because investors had expected an even more dovish signal from the ECB and for the central bank to acknowledge weakness in economic growth.
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"The message that was established in March is that we are now looking at a more dovish ECB," said Matt Cairns, a fixed income strategist at Rabobank.
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But stocks may have more support than last year, due largely to lower bond yields and a more dovish outlook on interest rates from the Federal Reserve.
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"A lot of people were positioned for the FOMC statement to be little bit more dovish than it actually was," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with Forex.com.
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"Emerging markets can help to 'save the world' in this downturn, but this requires a weaker US dollar and thus a much more dovish Fed," said Hauner.
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John McCain (R-AZ) and Chris Coons (D-DE), which doesn't put any restrictions on future legal immigration — but substantially more dovish than the bill from Sen.
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Just over half expect the tone of the meeting to be neutral, while 24 percent worry it could be more hawkish and 16 percent say more dovish.
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Just over half expect the tone of the meeting to be neutral, while 215 percent worry it could be more hawkish and 003 percent say more dovish.
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Powell also could feel emboldened to adopt an even more dovish stance, acquiescing to the market's expectation of 75 basis points of cuts within the next year.
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But on Monday, stocks rebounded after Fed Governor Lael Brainard gave a more dovish speech, saying "today's new normal" calls for a gradual removal of accommodative policy.
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For an example of the promise of lower rates hurting stocks, one need only recall the Fed's September 2015 statement, which was more dovish than many expected.
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Central banks have changed their communication to a more dovish tone, but this is not necessarily going to prevent a change of economic cycle, rather the opposite.
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"We expect the BOJ to become a little bit more dovish next week by changing the forward guidance," said Masaaki Kanno, chief economist at Sony Financial Holdings.
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But a shift towards more dovish monetary policy in the euro zone and the United States is encouraging the region's central banks not to increase interest rates.
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Some also expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to strike a more dovish tone at their next meeting despite launching its first rate hike since 2006 last December.
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The market speculates that Banxico will adopt a less restrictive language given the U.S. Federal Reserve's more dovish pivot, analysts at Banco Base wrote in a note.
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"The RBNZ has very consciously sent a message that they have become more dovish in the past six weeks," economists at ANZ Bank said in a report.
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More aggressive anti-Iranian hawks like bin Salman may have seen Donald Trump's election as an excuse to win the day over more dovish princes and ministers.
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The rebound in risk assets since the beginning of 2019 was the product of three things: more dovish central banks, stabilizing economic growth and fading protectionism worries.
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Analysts expect the central bank this year to adopt a more dovish stance on interest rates as inflation falls, and see a cut in the coming months.
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The stock market went on to have its best January surge in 30 years as the Fed pivoted to a more dovish stance and trade fears eased.
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Investors say much of this year's gain for stocks has stemmed from a change in outlook for the Fed to be more dovish on interest rate policy.
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But she was encouraged that the Fed signaled a more dovish stance on Wednesday, and she believes China and the United States will come to terms soon.
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The BOE Governor, Mark Carney, has however stuck to a more dovish line, warning about the impact that Brexit is having on business investment and pay negotiations.
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Though Trump promised the U.S. would respond to Iran's attack with "punishing economic sanctions," traders took the news as more dovish and a move toward de-escalation.
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At the last meeting, three rate-setters voted to raise rates, but one, Kristin Forbes, has since departed and been replaced by the more dovish Silvana Tenreyro.
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And McCall adds that the combination of low inflation and a recent shift to a more dovish tone by the Federal Reserve bode well for stocks too.
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While market participants still expect the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates this month, many expect a more dovish course for the second half of this year.
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South Korean President Moon Jae-in's administration, meanwhile, might view Trump's team as overly aggressive against North Korea and continue on its more dovish path without American support.
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Some traders and investors had thought the Fed might have struck a more dovish tone given the potential economic impact of recent severe hurricanes and still sluggish inflation.
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UOB's Goh agrees there is no immediate need for BNM to push for a rate cut, even if the central bank may take on a more dovish outlook.
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In Europe, the European Central Bank has adopted a more dovish stance after issuing cheap loans for banks in the region while German manufacturing should stabilize, Minerd added.
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The backstory: Waller works for St. Louis Fed President James Bullard — who has been known to advocate for more dovish monetary policy and, more recently — a rate cut.
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But the implied odds of a rate hike nearly doubled Friday to 33 percent after Rosengren's comments, though Tarullo's more dovish remarks put the chances at 24 percent.
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The decision indicated that the BOE is not planning to reverse direction in accordance with other major central banks, which have set a more dovish tone this week.
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"That should be enough to persuade some of the more dovish members to turn more hawkish and that will prompt the start of the tightening cycle," he added.
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But one of those - Kristin Forbes - has now departed and has been replaced by a rate-setter who has in her previous roles appeared more dovish, Silvana Tenreyro.
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JGBs also retreated following their recent rally that was sparked after the U.S. Federal Reserve's more dovish-than-expected stance, as Japanese shares appeared to have found footing.
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The dollar rose on Thursday as rival currencies struggled following more dovish soundings from central banks, while the yen gained as investor worries about the global economy grew.
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Financial markets had expected a more dovish message, but Poloz offered no clues as to whether the bank will hike rates again in December or wait until 2018.
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Central bank chiefs Mario Draghi (Europe), Haruhiko Kuroda (Japan) and Mark Carney (England) have been sounding a bit more dovish recently on growth, and the euro has weakened.
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On the other hand, the central banks of Sweden and New Zealand were less cautious in policy meetings on Wednesday, surprising traders who had expected more dovish signals.
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With everyone unsatisfied, the question is what happens next: Was this a "one and done" insurance-like rate cut, or a more dovish decision that's just the beginning?
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In the United States, the Federal Reserve has already started on a tightening cycle but appears to be getting more dovish in the face of weak economic data.
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That could mean the Fed will take a more dovish approach to policy, holding off on raising rates even if inflation climbs above the FOMC's 2 percent target.
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Trump is likely to pick Fed Governor Jerome Powell, who is seen as more dovish on interest rates and thus relatively stock market friendly, sources have told Reuters.
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Many investors had expected the Fed to strike a more dovish tone in light of the potential economic impact of recent hurricanes and the persistence of sluggish inflation.
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"It was little bit lighter than expectations ... to market expectations it was a little bit more dovish than expected," said Derek Holt, head of capital markets at Scotiabank.
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"I didn't think they'd do it, but they came across as more dovish than what was expected," said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist for Wells Fargo Asset Management.
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Central banks in South Korea and Malaysia meet next week and while economists don't expect them to ease either, their policy rhetoric could reveal a more dovish bias.
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"I don't think this is the time when they're going to say this is something cyclical or coincidental," he said, adding it could sound more dovish than expected.
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Looking at the dispersion of the dots within the dot plot, it's clear there is a widening divide between the more hawkish members and the more dovish members.
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Stocks are primed for a selloff should the Fed fail to take an even more dovish tilt after policymakers raised expectations for a rate cut in recent weeks.
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I now think we are in for one, if not two, rate cuts this year as the dot plots have significantly changed to a much more dovish forecast.
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"I think the ECB policy was quite dovish as the forward guidance was prolonged, but the market was hoping the bank would be even more dovish," said Daiwa's Ishizuki.
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Fed chair Jerome Powell, meanwhile, has been sounding more dovish in recent weeks — a sign that the Fed could even consider rate cuts if the economy needed a boost.
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U.S. government debt yields sank Tuesday as fixed-income investors continued to doubt expectations of burgeoning inflation and sustained economic activity amid more dovish commentary from the Federal Reserve.
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Traders are hoping to hear more dovish commentary from Powell, after he softened his stance last week, and traders are now betting on fewer rate hikes for next year.
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The dollar had been rising for weeks but lost some of its momentum after the Federal Reserve minutes on Wednesday were seen as more dovish than markets had expected.
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The ECB holds its next policy meeting on Thursday and is expected to keep settings unchanged though there is growing speculation it could shift to a more dovish footing.
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" DAVID JOY, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, BOSTON "It's a disappointment to investors who were hoping it was going to be more dovish than it turned out to be.
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The Fed also shifted to a more dovish stance toward its ongoing shedding of assets, saying it was prepared to adjust its plans based on economic and financial developments.
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"The debate this week has been between the Fed pause or whether other central banks have become more dovish, and that is basically moving the U.S. dollar," he said.
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The New Zealand dollar jumped 1.3 percent to a one-week high of $0.6827 after the decision as many in the market had positioned for a more dovish stance.
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Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, have fallen of late on weaker economic forecasts, trade tensions, and a more dovish monetary stance from the world's largest central banks.
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"Powell wasn't more dovish than what we saw in January, but he's certainly less hawkish than he was last year," said Erik Nelson, currency strategist, at Wells Fargo Securities.
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"The Fed's stance is much more dovish than it was earlier in the year," said Matthew Keator, partner in the Keator Group, a wealth management firm in Lenox, Massachusetts.
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"The risk was that they could have perhaps sounded a little bit more dovish on the back of the recent data and that certainly wasn't the case," he added.
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"Basically this is an FOMC outcome that was more dovish than some had anticipated in the near term," said Stephen Freedman, senior investment strategist at UBS Wealth Management Americas.
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President Donald Trump is likely to pick Fed Governor Jerome Powell, who is seen as more dovish on interest rates so relatively stock market friendly, sources have told Reuters.
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Even Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, one of the more dovish FOMC members, told the Wall Street Journal a few days ago that talk of a cut was premature.
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Market participants widely expect it to be Fed Governor Jerome Powell, who is considered more dovish on interest rates than some other candidates and thus relatively stock-market friendly.
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Fed Governor Jerome Powell, seen as more dovish than other contenders for the post, has been favored to be named as the next Fed chair by Trump on Thursday.
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While investors detected a mild sense of hawkishness from the central bank's policymakers a few weeks ago, Thursday's meeting had been expected to convey a much more dovish tone.
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Martin Luther King Jr., several N.A.A.C.P. officials and other leaders perceived as much more dovish, still carried or stored weapons to defend their households and communities from potential attacks.
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The dollar this past week fell 1.8 percent against the euro zone currency, as the market responded to expectations of a hawkish ECB versus a possibly more dovish Fed.
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Capital Economics expects wage growth to weaken further in the coming quarters, while Citigroup said that a worsening in the unemployment rate could see a more dovish central bank.
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Analyst polled by Reuters last week expect a 25 basis rate cut in the second quarter as they believe new rate-setters will be more dovish than their predecessors.
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"The Aussie is weaker on the back of the back of the more dovish than expected RBA minutes," said Valentin Marinov, head of G10 FX strategy at Credit Agricole.
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"Our first take on this is that it probably leans slightly more dovish, relative to expectations," said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York.
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Ten of them expected no change, while nine thought the board could turn more hawkish, although open to cutting rates as inflation subsides, and one saw it becoming more dovish.
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A stronger dollar, lower inflation and a more dovish U.S. Federal Reserve may lead the central bank to increase interest rates twice in 2017, JP Morgan said in a report.
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She said Trump's bold spending plan may require low interest rates (and, in turn, a more dovish Fed), but she wondered about whom the president would appoint to the board.
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World equity markets slumped on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve dashed investor hopes of a more dovish policy outlook even as signs grow that global economic growth is stuttering.
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When the Fed abandoned its rate tightening plans in February, markets had expected the RBNZ to turn more dovish only to have Orr hold on to a firm neutral stance.
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"The geopolitical tensions and an expectation of a more dovish Fed pushed investors to increase their gold exposure," Mark Keenan, global commodities specialist at Societe Generale, said in a note.
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"The tone of Powell's remarks was considerably more dovish than (the tone) at the Fed's open markets committee meeting in December," said Hisao Matsuura, chief equity strategist at Nomura Securities.
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President Donald Trump is likely to pick Fed Governor Jerome Powell, who is seen as more dovish on interest rates and thus relatively stock market friendly, sources have told Reuters.
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While higher rates are technically bad for gold, the Fed appeared to be a bit more dovish than investors expected, leading the dollar to dip and thus gold to rise.
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Utah is a unique red state on immigration, with a big Mormon voter base that is traditionally more dovish than the hardliner Republicans who shaped the immigration debate in Washington.
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The Fed changed the tone in markets significantly Wednesday, when it was even more dovish than expected and cut its rate forecast to just one for this year from two.
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But with negative analyst sentiment as a contrary indicator, an expected U.S.-China trade deal and a more dovish Federal Reserve, he says any market turbulence would be short-lived.
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The U.S. Federal Reserve last month signalled a pause to its tightening cycle, while policymakers in Japan, Australia, India and Philippines have turned more dovish to contain rising economic risks.
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Central banks from the United States to Japan and China have turned more dovish since the start of this year in the face of cooling global growth and tepid inflation.
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Germany's 20.8-year Bund yield hit a two-week high before pulling back slightly as traders waited for what are likely to be far more dovish ECB meeting minutes later.
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The Fed also said it would halt the steady contraction of its balance sheet in September, in what proved to be a more dovish-than-anticipated policy meeting on Wednesday.
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The more dovish tone prompted money markets to price in the chance of a rate cut by year-end, with that probability hovering around 35 percent ahead of Wilkins speech.
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"After the last meeting, where they sounded a little more dovish, I think it might be deemed to be hawkish, frankly," said Leo Grohowski, CIO of BNY Mellon Wealth Management.
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"They are probably going to have to start leaning to the more dovish side so we think the balance of risks is for them to cut again," said ING's Patel.
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Many investors viewed the overall tone as more dovish than their expectations, sending the 21.2507-year U.S. Treasuries yield to as low as 21%, its lowest level since November 2362.20.
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"If they sound more dovish on inflation, more worried about where inflation is going, that would tee up the idea that there could be a policy response," Mr. Dutta said.
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Both Clinton and Sanders differ greatly on foreign policy, so it's unclear whether the party's platform will defer to Sanders's more dovish approach or play up Clinton's more hawkish beliefs.
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Dave Lutz, head of ETF trading at JonesTrading, said buy programs were triggered following the minutes' release as the stock market saw them as "a little more dovish" than expected.
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Some other central banks, notably those in Switzerland and Sweden, have also turned more dovish, with the latter suggesting this week that more "tools" may be deployed to lift inflation.
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Many investors viewed the overall tone as more dovish than their expectations, sending the 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield to as low as 1.974%, its lowest level since November 2016.
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"On the whole the message is following the theme set by the bank's peers in recent days by turning more dovish," said David Cheetham, an analyst at online broker XTB.
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Maybe Trump would realize that his plans for stealing Iraqi and Libyan oil are beyond the pale once in office, and his more dovish instincts would come to the fore.
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In a sense I think this is quite a bit more dovish than the market was priced for and that's why you're seeing Treasuries rally and equities rally as well.
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None of them are known to have more dovish views than Powell, and there's at least some reason to believe that a couple of them are more hawkish than Powell.
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" Strategists at Singapore's DBS Bank pointed out in a note that Fed's comments over the past several days have turned "notably more dovish as uncertainties over the US's trade policies weigh.
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The risk of more dovish talk from the Federal Reserve was also keeping the dollar at a 21.1396-month low against the euro remained a strong undercurrent for other markets too.
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More dovish would be if it lowered the forecast to just one for next year, or even dropped the expected rate hike from 2020, signaling an early end to rate hikes.
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BNP Paribas's Global Head of FX Strategy Michael Sneyd said the announcement amounted to a "very gradual form of tapering" and a slightly more dovish tone than the market had expected.
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New Zealand's economic growth slumped to its lowest in almost five years in the third quarter, stoking talk the central bank might take a more dovish monetary policy stance in 2019.
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Trump is expected to pick Fed Governor Jerome Powell, who is considered more dovish on interest rates than some other candidates and thus relatively stock-market friendly, sources have told Reuters.
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In September, the central bank said it would hike late this year or early next, surprising many who expected that a slowing economy would lead to a more dovish policy outlook.
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The Fed's more dovish projections come less than two weeks after a Labor Department report showed a 38,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls for May, well below expectations in the 160,000 range.
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"Markets last week reacted to a more dovish FOMC statement and forecast, with Treasury yields falling after the meeting," said Joel Kan, MBA's associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting.
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An incoming member of the BoE's rate-setting team, Jonathan Haskel, is set to replace a relatively hawkish policymaker and this week he signalled a more dovish tone than some expected.
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Uysal, who served as deputy governor for three years before the shock dismissal of his boss, is known as one of the more dovish members of the bank's interest rate setters.
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As does a weaker sterling – Vanguard's sterling-hedged U.S. Government Bond Index Fund is a great way to insure against a weaker dollar stemming for more dovish than expected Federal Reserve.
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In currency markets, the dollar held an upper hand against many of its rivals as other major central banks are seen tilting to a more dovish stance than the Federal Reserve.
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The weaker data could prompt a more dovish than expected response by the ECB at its July meeting, suggesting that rather than just changing forward guidance, policy action could be taken.
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While Fischer was more dovish than he has been in the past, he still did not take the idea of the Fed implementing four rate hikes in 2016 off the table.
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"Our first take on (the Fed statement) is that it probably leans slightly more dovish, relative to expectations," said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist, at RBC Capital Markets in New York.
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Pictet Wealth Management economist Frederik Ducrozet said the prospect of a less stable German government could lead to concerns about the euro zone economic outlook, potentially making the ECB more dovish.
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The Bank of Canada's more dovish tone in recent weeks has tempered bets it will hike again in December and many economists now see the central bank on hold until 2018.
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Rate differentials between Britain and the United States suggested a lower pound and the currency has also failed to capitalise on euro weakness caused by a more dovish European Central Bank.
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"If we hear more dovish comments on the tightening cycle, this will drag the dollar lower and give another push to gold prices," said Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM.
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Brazilian interest rate futures fell in afternoon trading, chalking up their biggest drop in three weeks, as some traders interpreted Goldfajn's comments as being more dovish than market participants had expected.
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Private equity firms are now swooping in to buy assets at attractive valuations, say industry insiders, as regulatory changes and a more dovish monetary policy outlook bode well for the sector.
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If the Fed has second thoughts about monetary tightening and turns more dovish, for instance, it could depress the dollar, easing pressures on foreign economies with large debts denominated in dollars.
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The market would be surprised by more-dovish-than-anticipated rhetoric from Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday, said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of foreign exchange strategy at BK Asset Management.
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The Federal Reserve is getting more dovish in the face of weak inflation data, reducing the likelihood of a third rate hike this year, which traders already see as very unlikely.
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BUDAPEST, Sept 25 (Reuters) - The Hungarian forint resumed its downward trend on Wednesday, after the central bank projected lower inflation and an economic slowdown and shifted to a more dovish stance.
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The widening fallout from the U.S.-China trade war and slowing global demand have forced many major central banks to cut interest rates or shift to a more dovish policy stance.
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" BRUCE MONRAD, CHAIRMAN AND TRUSTEE OF NORTHEAST INVESTORS TRUST IN BOSTON "The statement seems to be a little more dovish and the dots moved down and that's pretty dovish as well.
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The euro jumped half a percent during the previous session as markets had positioned on a more dovish signal from the ECB and an acknowledgement of weak economic growth in the bloc.
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Fed officials recently have sounded slightly more dovish, and the market has begun pricing out multiple rate hikes for next year, though a rate hike is expected when the Fed meets Dec.
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Stateside, officials at the Federal Reserve voted to hike interest rates by 0.25 percent on Wednesday, although President Donald Trump had been pressing the central bank for a more dovish policy outlook.
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Stocks bounced Monday and Tuesday, but a real year end rally may be elusive unless the market gets positive headlines from President Trump on trade and more dovish comments from the Fed.
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Clinton is seeking to dress up the status quo as a new and more hawkish course, while Sanders wants to dress up the status quo as a new and more dovish course.
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His views are more dovish than those of most of his colleagues, and in the past he has called for waiting for faster wage growth and inflation before raising rates much further.
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The weaker data could prompt a more dovish than expected response by the ECB at its July meeting, suggesting that rather than just changing forward guidance, a policy action could be taken.
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Hopes that the Fed would take a more dovish approach to counter the impact of a protracted U.S.-China trade war has helped Wall Street's main indexes scale record levels this month.
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"If the Fed is a little more dovish and prices in a 75 basis points cut ... we might see oil pushing up towards $60," Lu said by phone, referring to U.S. crude.
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"Certainly the dollar has been acting like something of a safe haven even though the Fed has been more dovish than has been expected," said Neil Mellor, FX strategist at BNY Mellon.
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"It appears that the Fed is really going to be much more dovish going forward on their expectations on interest rates," said Phil Streible, senior commodities strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago.
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Some industry players think the market's bull run got a new lease on life after December's wipeout and could now carry on for an 11th year as the Fed turned more dovish.
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If the Fed is more dovish than expected, the dollar is likely to move lower and in turn support gold prices, while uncertainty surrounding Brexit has increased demand for safety, Yang said.
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"They're striking a more dovish tone," said Nathan Janzen, senior economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, noting it was not surprising after softer-than-expected gross domestic product data last week.
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The Bank of Canada held interest rates steady as expected on March 6 and took a slightly more dovish tone, saying there was "increased uncertainty" about the timing of future rate increases.
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The more dovish tone has led the market to price in about a 30 percent chance of a rate cut this year, whereas before it had been pricing in a potential hike.
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The New Zealand dollar and Sweden's crown rose after their central banks broke with the growing caution of the world's major monetary-policy makers, surprising traders who had expected more dovish signals.
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Gary Cohn, currently President Donald Trump's chief economic advisor, probably would advocate both a more dovish approach to rates, like the status quo group, and a looser regulatory approach, like the rebels.
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More pointedly, the candidates they believe to have the most realistic probability of being appointed (or reappointed) "suggest the Fed is not likely to be moving significantly in a more dovish direction."
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A more dovish U.S. Federal Reserve outlook and a weaker dollar had lifted gold on Thursday, although it later steadied as optimism about U.S.-China trade talks lifted appetite for riskier assets.
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S. trade tariffs, coupled with expectations of more dovish talk from the Federal Reserve pushed down Treasury yields and the dollar, while safe-haven plays thrust gold prices to six-year highs.
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The Hungarian central bank projected lower inflation and an economic slowdown and shifted to a more dovish stance on Tuesday, when it left its interest rates at the lowest in Central Europe.
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The Hungarian central bank had projected lower inflation and an economic slowdown and shifted to a more dovish stance on Tuesday, when it left interest rates at the lowest in Central Europe.
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"If growth continues to run below 2% — especially if it slows further in the first quarter, as we expect — the policy outlook will be more dovish," said analysts at High Frequency Economics.
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Analysts put most of the pound's buoyancy down to dollar weakness, with the U.S. currency struggling after the Federal Reserve struck a more dovish tone on monetary policy than in previous months.
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On trade, one hopes Turnbull can persuade Trump to become more dovish -- to enter the CPTPP and to more carefully consider the dangers and damage a trade war with China might bring.
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"It is more dovish than we probably expected ... But I wouldn't say the ECB is really getting ahead of the curve," Florian Hense, European economist at Berenberg, told CNBC's Julianna Tatelbaum on Thursday.
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" In one tip to those looking for a more dovish outlook, the committee assured that it will "continue to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook.
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That is far more dovish than the previous poll in May, when five out of 4.663 economists said the bias was to the downside, nine were neutral, and one said to the upside.
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The latest CNBC Fed Survey shows Wall Street anticipating a more dovish Fed in April than it did back in March, with the next rate hike not expected until much later this year.
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It seems like the Fed's board of governors has become more dovish since the December meeting and the market is now pricing in only one rate hike by the end of the year.
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Even as the central bank turned more dovish in December, it reiterated that it will need to raise rates to a neutral range between 2.50 and 3.50 percent to achieve its inflation target.
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And they were not hostile reactions to any Fed surprise: The decision in each case was as anticipated, with more dovish language leading to quarter-point rate cuts both in July and September.
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Why it matters: Brainard and Williams appeared with Chairman Jerome Powell in Bloomberg's profile of "The Fed's nucleus" earlier this year, and are both making the case for an even more dovish Fed.
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Following a sharp drop in December, U.S. shares gained through much of January, supported in part by expectations for a thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions and a more dovish-sounding Federal Reserve.
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The principal risks are a deeper and more prolonged slowdown in global growth; a more dovish approach to sanctions from the White House; or renewed criticism about rising prices from the U.S. president.
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That, plus the possibility of the BoE turning more pessimistic about the inflationary "speed limit" of Britain's low-productivity economy, would send a hawkish signal even as other central banks turn more dovish.
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The bank's steadfast optimism bucked market expectations for a more dovish message, and the suggestion that a rate cut is less likely drove the Canadian dollar to its strongest level since July 7.
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Global stock markets slumped after the Fed dashed investor hopes of a more dovish policy outlook and the dollar index fell to a one-month low, making gold more appealing for non-U.
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"Higher inflation and weaker koruna add pressure to increase rates while more dovish global central banks may reduce the effectiveness of such decision," Gintaras Slizhyus, an analyst at Raiffeisen, said in a note.
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"Concerning that global economic growth slowed down, while central banks turned more dovish on monetary policy, we are not being pessimistic about gold market," gold dealer Wing Fung said in a research note.
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"This was far more dovish than markets had expected, resulting in sharp rallies in commodities, emerging markets and commodity-related currencies," Angus Nicholson, market strategist at spreadbetter IG, said in a note Thursday.
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Precious metals miners Fresnillo, Polymetal International and Randgold Resources were particularly in demand after the U.S. Federal Reserve's more dovish tone, saying it would stick to a gradual path of interest rate rises.
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The U.S. central bank also forecast fewer interest-rate increases in 2019, but this fell short of some investors' hopes for a more dovish monetary policy and Wall Street shares slumped in response.
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The bank again held rates steady on Wednesday but took a more dovish stance than in recent releases, removing wording around the need for "future hikes," while lowering its growth forecasts for 2019.
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On Wednesday, the Fed surprised markets with a policy statement that was more dovish than expected, abandoning projections for more rate hikes this year due to signs of softness in the U.S. economy.
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On Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen sounded more dovish in tone, and said interest rates likely do not need to rise substantially higher to achieve the central bank's goals around monetary policy normalization.
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The stock market climbed Wednesday with the Dow Jones industrial average hitting a record after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen delivered testimony to Congress, which was considered to be more dovish than expected.
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But Malkiel noted the European Central bank and the Bank of Japan have more dovish monetary policies than the Federal Reserve, which may be a reason for the higher 10-year bond demand.
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"A comparison of yesterday's and September's post-meeting RBA statement suggests yesterday's statement is, if anything, slightly more dovish," said Joe Capurso, senior currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.
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Euro zone banks also fell about 0.5% after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde struck a slightly more dovish tone than some had expected in the bank's first policy meeting of the year.
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"I think that with her getting a little more dovish, I think that that may be pushed back until December, which, you know for financials may not be the great thing," Costa said.
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"With the recent newsflow having been relatively strong on the activity side (and benign on the inflation side), we do not expect a more dovish tone yet," Citi analysts wrote in a note.
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"The minutes are more dovish than hawkish as it leaves open the door for a rate cut depending on how those factors evolve," said Flavio Serrano, senior economist with Sao Paulo-based bank Haitong.
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On Tuesday, the market turned in its second-best day of the year with more dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and Republican leaders on Capitol Hill indicating resistance to Trump's threatened Mexican tariffs.
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The recent stock market sell-off, coupled with worries about global growth and the intensifying trade impasse between the U.S. and China, have translated into tightening financial conditions and more dovish monetary policy expectations.
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However, bankers and traders said the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy statement due out today was weighing on sentiment as investors and issuers hope for a more dovish stance on future interest-rate hikes.
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This disappointed some market participants who had hoped for a more dovish stance as it reduced the possibility of a rate cut in the near future, said Dan Kawa, a strategist at TAG Investimentos.
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On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada held rates steady but took a more dovish stance than in recent releases, removing wording around the need for "future hikes," while lowering its growth forecasts for 2019.
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Notably, yields on 10-year bonds too came under pressure, suggesting "the market thinks the Fed is making a policy mistake by not being more dovish," National Australia Bank analysts wrote in a note.
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" KRISTINA HOOPER, GLOBAL MARKET STRATEGIST, INVESCO LTD, NEW YORK "The Fed did what the market had hoped for and expected, which is to raise rates but to suggest a more dovish stance in 2019.
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"If the Fed comes out dovish or more dovish or as dovish as markets are pricing, it will weaken the U.S. dollar, which will add to gold's allure," Innes from SPI Asset Management said.
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Striking a more dovish tone than expected after very strong employment data, the bank gave few hints at when the next rate hike will come, reducing expectations it would move as early as January.
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"Draghi was always going to be more dovish then he was in Sintra," said Orlando Green, European fixed income strategist at Credit Agricole, referring to recent comments by ECB chief Mario Draghi in Portugal.
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High-yield bonds drew $2.3 billion inflows this week while $1.5 billion flowed into government bonds, in flows strategists said were starting to reflect more dovish central banks and investors' expectation yields have peaked.
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Even with the forecasts the U.S. central bank released this week that were even more dovish than before, traders anticipate no more than one hike in 2016, according to fed fund futures activity Thursday.
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"As long as you have a Fed that's anchored to being more dovish, that's going to tend to be more supportive to emerging markets," Greg David, head of fixed income at Vanguard, told CNBC.
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After a late 22 sell-off, stocks have rallied this year in large part due to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve as well as hopes of a U.S.-China trade resolution.
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"Global investors have completely capitulated after there was no Powell put," said Yasuo Sakuma, chief investment officer at Libra Investments, referring to dashed hopes of more dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
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"Some people say the minutes contained few surprises but a close look suggests the Fed is likely to become more dovish as time goes by," said Daisuke Uno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Bank.
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Investors may be positioning for the possibility of a more dovish stance from the European Central Bank given the euro's recent strength, said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington.
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Analysts said that the yen steadied against the dollar since the reaction from the BoJ's move had ended, while the euro gained mainly on expectations for a more dovish path of Fed rate hikes.
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"The market is trending more dovish with regard to Fed expectations in general, which is having a bit of pressure on the dollar," said Sebastien Galy, currency strategist at Deutsche Bank in New York.
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"Our 2016 EPS downgrade is a function of a weaker global outlook, a more Dovish Fed (stronger euro, lower risk-free rate) and weaker commodity prices than we forecast," Goldman wrote in a note.
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Investors will now focus on Fed officials including Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, considered an interest rate hawk, and Board Governor Lael Brainard, who has been more dovish, for their take on the labor market.
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"We actually think it will be tough for them to be more dovish than what the market is pricing," said Mark Cabana, head of U.S. short rate strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
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The implication is that if global growth rebounds from here — spurred by more dovish central banks — investors stand to benefit from the rebound in non-US stocks that had sold off on recession fears.
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Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen last week made comments more dovish than anticipated in remarks before Congress, signaling interest rates need not rise all that much to achieve a "normalized" state of monetary policy.
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Some investors hope a more dovish tone out of the Fed meeting would help to soothe market sentiment, given that the perception gap between markets and policymakers has been a major source of anxiety.
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is getting more dovish in the face of weak inflation data, reducing the likelihood of a third rate hike this year, which traders already see as very unlikely.
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"When you combine [supply and demand] with some more favorable macros like a weaker U.S. dollar and what appears to be a more dovish Fed, I think the rally's going to continue," he explained.
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Brexit concerns also re-emerged and the pound, which earlier capitalised on the broader weakness of the dollar as traders bet on more dovish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve, came under pressure again.
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The U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have sounded more dovish after trade tensions grew between the United States and China, but the BoE has kept the door open for tighter policy.
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If he wanted a more dovish approach, he could have tapped Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari, Kashkari's predecessor Narayana Kocherlakota, David Beckworth from the Mercatus Center, or even Fed Board member Lael Brainard.
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Although the stock market has seemed to find its way to recover in the new year, driven by the Federal Reserve's more dovish stance and solid jobs numbers, the outlook for stocks still remains gloomy.
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With Fed Chairman Jerome Powell taking a more dovish approach to 2019, Kovacevich said bank stocks will be "disappointed" by two increases because the sector benefits from higher interest rates but not from economic uncertainty.
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Through the first months of 2019, market participants have seen a more dovish Fed in favor of a "patient" approach to policy and one that will focus on economic data points like unemployment and inflation.
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There have been steep falls in yields across major bond markets this year as weaker global growth and a shift to a more dovish stance from central banks creates a favorable backdrop for fixed income.
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"There was a hope that if he had a more dovish tone that that might be a counterbalance to the trade headwinds out there," said Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading in Greenwich, Connecticut.
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Both central banks have had to take a more dovish tone as global economic indicators point to sluggish growth and trade tensions between the U.S. and other partners including China and Mexico dampen business sentiment.
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Clinton often tacks to the right of President Obama, particularly on issues like intervening in Syria, while Mr. Sanders embraces a more dovish approach as the world seems to be getting more dangerous and complex.
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On Wednesday, the Fed surprised investors with a policy statement that was more dovish than expected, as it forecast no further interest rate hikes this year due to signs of softness in the U.S. economy.
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A more dovish than expected U.S. Federal Reserve outlook on Wednesday boosted appetite this week for developing world assets, starkly contrasting with 2018, when a slew of U.S. rate hikes drained capital from emerging markets.
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"It's been a massive week for obvious reasons, in terms of the Fed being even more dovish than what people thought they could be," said Stuart Ritson, head of Asian rates & FX at Aviva Investors.
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"We expect no action from the Fed or BOJ, although investors will be looking for a more dovish forward bias as the renewed decline in oil prices lowers inflation expectations globally," wrote strategists at Barclays.
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Powell is seen as being more dovish on monetary policy than other contenders for the post, especially compared to Stanford University economist John Taylor, who has been regarded as another top challenger for the position.
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Investors may be positioning for the possibility of a more dovish stance from the European Central Bank given the euro's recent strength, said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc in Washington.
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The rupee's appreciation reflects a broad move into high yield emerging markets by investors, as central banks for major economies - notably the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank - have adopted a more dovish stance.
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"Powell's stance seems fairly consistent with the current framework of the Fed while Cohn would likely lean a bit more dovish and emphasize putting in place monetary policy to complement fiscal policy reform," Meyer added.
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Cowen said in a note to investors earlier Wednesday that Fed Governor Lael Brainard is "the only governor that is clearly more dovish than Powell" if Trump were to try more ways to remove Powell.
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There have been steep falls in yields across major bond markets this year as weaker global growth and a shift to a more dovish stance from central banks creates a favourable backdrop for fixed income.
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The RBNZ's statement had a slightly more dovish tone than taken at its meeting in May, adding warnings over recent weakness in economic growth and the potential fallout from escalating trade tensions among major economies.
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And given concerns about a slowing economy after growth cooled sharply in the July-September quarter, the RBI is likely to hold interest rates next month and move to a more dovish stance, economists say.
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On Wednesday, the Fed surprised investors with a policy statement that was more dovish than expected, as it anticipated no further interest rate hikes this year due to signs of softness in the U.S. economy.
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However, with the Fed on a more dovish path and bond yields holding near lows, Stone sees the potential for funds to shift out of money markets such as mutual funds and into equities again.
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Traders currently give about a 23 percent probability to a December rate hike, down from 30 percent before Brainard spoke on Tuesday, reflecting the weak inflation readings and some more dovish comments from Fed policymakers.
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"There have been two drivers of the market gains this month: The expectations for the Fed to get more dovish; and optimism over the potential for some type of trade progress with China," Ragan said.
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Investors will look out for comments from Fed officials including Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, considered an interest rate hawk, and Board Governor Lael Brainard, who has been more dovish, for their take on the labor market.
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That more dovish talk out of the Fed has helped Wall Street recover some of the late-2018 declines that sent stocks into a bear market — a decline of 20 percent or more from recent highs.
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LARRY FINK: Yeah, and it's just because I think we're struggling in this time, especially now with Central Banks who are, if anything, more dovish than ever, they're not changing their behaviors related to QE anymore.
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Goldman's Peter Oppenheimer told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Tuesday that more dovish guidance from central banks has been crucial in triggering a recovery in equity markets, meaning the focus will now shift to earnings season.
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Emerging market assets had already been under pressure this week after the U.S. Federal Reserve played down expectations of many interest rate cuts this year, underwhelming many investors who had hoped for a more dovish stance.
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Haldane was previously known as one of the more dovish members of the nine-strong MPC, but he said in July that he expected to back a rate increase later this year after inflation picked up.
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Analysts forecast economic policy will remain largely unchanged under the Law and Justice Party, allowing for the possible slanting of public expenditure towards social benefits and the installation of more dovish policymakers in the central bank.
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Investors say the dollar has held up surprisingly well this year, given the more dovish stance by the Federal Reserve, but any weakening in the U.S. currency could be a boon for stocks outside the country.
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Based on what you've said about the weakness in housing, based on some of the downturn that you saw, did you think he made the right move by signaling a much more dovish take last quarter?
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Furthermore, Trump's nomination of Stephen Moore on Friday to the Fed board could tilt the board to be even more dovish given Moore has publicly criticized Fed chairman Powell's interest rate policy as being too tight.
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The greenback gained modestly on Thursday as investors continued to digest comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday that took a more dovish turn than expected and sent the dollar tumbling.
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Major Asian stock markets closed little changed on Friday following a roller-coaster session that sent shares oscillating between positive and negative territory as investors grappled with the consequences of a more dovish U.S. Federal Reserve.
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MORE JOBS, RISING SALARIES The more dovish tone has led the market to price in about a 30 percent chance of a rate cut this year, whereas before it had been pricing in a potential hike.
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The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold rates steady, with the majority of analysts anticipating one more hike in 2019, though recent data has clouded the outlook and could force a more dovish tone.
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Expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada to tilt towards a more dovish follow pauses by other central banks in policy tightening in 20193 in the face of waning economic momentum.
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"Lower rates, higher equities and a lower dollar all point to this being interpreted as more dovish than what was expected," said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas.
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Some analysts are predicting that the central bank is likely to lower the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 9 percent, and markets tend to price in more dovish moves by the central bank.
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The euro was little moved at $1.1628, though it kept some distance from its three-month low of $1.1574 touched on Friday after the European Central Bank's stance was perceived to be more dovish than expected.
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"However, there is not going to be any other occasion that the Fed is going to be more dovish than it already is, so gold futures have not reacted to Powell's speech at all," Streible added.
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"Given that Yellen's comments post-meeting have been more dovish, I think the market will frankly ignore anything that isn't dovish," said Sharon Stark, chief fixed income strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co in St. Petersburg, Florida.
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Markets expected that the new MPC may be more dovish than the previous one, but most new members signalled they saw no reason to cut rates further from their current all-time low of 1.5 percent.
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"We suspect that the economic deterioration this year will cause the Bank to become even more dovish and eventually cut rates to 1.0 percent by early 2020," said Ben Udy, Singapore-based economist for Capital Economics.
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The BOE announced on Monday that Forbes would be replaced with Silvana Tenreyro, who is expected to tend towards the more dovish side of the policymakers' scale, according to George Buckley, chief U.K. economist at Nomura.
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Expectations of a more hawkish European Central Bank contrast with market views that the Fed is more dovish than it had been and is less likely to follow through with another interest-rate hike this year.
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However, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq benchmarks closed higher after a weak inflation report for February reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will remain patient on rates and may sound more dovish at next week's meeting.
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The dollar fell broadly on Thursday, weighed down by a perceived lack of progress on U.S. tax reforms and public spending, while Wednesday's more-dovish-than-expected Federal Reserve meeting minutes also weighed on the greenback.
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With international economic growth slowing, investors are nervous that U.S. President Donald Trump will impose tariffs on Japan and Europe, which could result in more dovish central banks globally and give the dollar a relative advantage.
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LONDON (Reuters) - Emerging market central banks accelerated interest rate cuts in July, with policymakers rushing to trim benchmarks as major central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank adopted a more dovish tone.
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One big fear was that the Fed would engineer a recession by raising interest rates too much, but the Fed has adopted a more dovish tone and has stressed that it could pause in its rate hiking.
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"We were seeing economists bringing up some warning signs, and we were following the Fed signals and that they were becoming more dovish," said Bhanu Arora, the head of consumer lending at the Chicago-based lender Avant.
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Powell left the door open for more rate cuts but did not go so far as to promise any — clearly disappointing the president, as well as some market pros who wanted to hear a more dovish Fed.
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Read More US economy picking up steam—beyond the official data Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, said Yellen is more dovish than her colleagues and her remarks Friday "doesn't suggest" a hike in June, Reuters reported.
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LONDON (Reuters) - As central bank rhetoric turns more dovish, investors will search for further hints of easing in a week with few data releases to indicate whether years of loose monetary policy are having any material effect.
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"The sustained decline in rates is a key factor(for gold), particularly as the Fed shifts to a more dovish stance," UBS analysts said in a note, raising their three-month price target to $1,430 from $0.33,380.
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Each of the major U.S. stock indexes closed at a record high, as expectations grew that the Federal Reserve would take a more dovish turn as a raft of data provided more evidence of a slowing economy.
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"The decline by U.S. equities has also slowed, and this has supported the dollar as it shows that the market's economic prospects remain reasonably good with the Fed preparing to take a more dovish approach," he said.
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While Wakatabe's remarks on Monday were markedly more dovish than those of his boss, economists say they are more measured than some of his earlier ideas about policy, which argued for the need for more aggressive easing.
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Erdogan, who criticised last year's policy tightening even though it won praise from investors for stemming the crisis, noted that the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks have recently shifted to a more dovish stance.
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"We just had the minutes and saw there was a slightly more dovish take, so there is this ongoing debate about the lack of inflation momentum in the U.S.," said Benjamin Schroeder, senior rates strategist at ING.
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LONDON (Reuters) - Emerging market central banks accelerated interest rate cuts in June, with policymakers rushing to trim benchmarks as major central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank adopted a more dovish tone.
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Analysts said that the yen partly recovered against the dollar since the reaction from the BOJ's move had ended, while the euro and yen also gained on expectations for a more dovish path of Fed rate hikes.
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The consensus is that the BOE will again leave interest rates where they have been - at 0.5 percent - since early 2009, and some investors suspect the central bank may sound more dovish given the uncertain global backdrop.
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A more dovish than expected interest rate outlook from the ECB sent shares across Europe surging on Thursday, with the FTSE 100 also benefiting thanks to its heavy weighting in high dividend-yielding, interest rate sensitive stocks.
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Expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada to tilt towards a more dovish stance follow pauses by other central banks in policy tightening in 2019 in the face of waning economic momentum.
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"The fires are going to add to what I expect to be a more dovish bias heading into the May 25 meeting anyway, but it is unlikely the Bank of Canada cuts directly in response," said Donald.
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"Overall, the ECB's focus on a very cautious and drawn-out tapering process that avoids pushing the euro higher was clearly more dovish than markets had been expecting," said James Chen, head of research at Gain Capital.
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With bund yields priced in for a bleaker economic outlook, the bias was towards benchmark yields to rise rather than fall, reflecting some optimism the European Central Bank's more dovish stance may stall a further economic slowdown.
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The ECB is not expected to offer any surprises and instead confirm that the end of quantitative easing next year is on track, although there is a risk president Mario Draghi sounds more dovish given recent headwinds.
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"If they are slightly more dovish in their language, I think you could see a reversal in the banks, but I don't see a lot of activity," said Aaron Clark, portfolio manager at GW&K Investment Management.
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While dollar bulls were heartened by the latest comments, the reaction in fed funds futures <0#FF:> was muted as some investors held back before speeches by more dovish Fed officials including Chicago Fed President Charles Evans.
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Though the ECB also outlined its plan to halt its quantitative easing policy by the end of 20.5, many on Wall Street interpreted the central bank's rate forecast as more dovish than expected, pushing Treasury yields lower.
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Yellen conceded that the Fed still likely will need to implement "gradual rate hikes" over "the next few years," but markets took her statement to mean that the central bank position could be more dovish than anticipated.
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He said Treasury yields may have fallen too much, but they are also reflecting the market attitude that the Fed is sounding more dovish and expectations are lower that the Fed will hike interest rates this year.
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Global central banks have shifted toward a more dovish stance this year and with investors struggling to decipher whether a slowdown in growth in major economies is temporary or something more serious, currency price volatility has slumped.
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If the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has kept rates at a record-low of 1.50 percent, shifts to a more dovish tilt it would be following other central banks in growing more cautious about the economic outlook.
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While dollar bulls were heartened by the latest comments, the reaction in fed funds futures <0#FF:> was muted as some investors held back ahead of speeches by more dovish Fed officials including Chicago Fed President Charles Evans.
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Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida was even more dovish when he said he believed the Fed was getting closer to neutral, or the rate that means the economy is no longer being stimulated nor is it being slowed.
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Loewengart said the market rebound since Fed chairman Jerome Powell became more dovish in his comments — that is, less likely to raise rates soon — shows how important that change in the Fed's outlook has become to many investors.
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With the Fed sounding more dovish, the bond market is adjusting and now signaling that rates for mortgages and other consumer loans could be lower in the near future than what was expected just a few days ago.
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors will focus on falling profits, a more dovish Federal Reserve and lower interest rates as major U.S. banks kick off what analysts expect to be the first quarter of contracting corporate earnings since 2016.
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With monetary policy in the U.S. and Singapore diverging – the U.S. looks set to tighten further, while the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) was more dovish – ANZ expected the Singapore dollar NEER might head toward its lower bound.
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He quoted Scott Wren, senior global equity strategist at Wells Fargo, as saying "If the Fed backs off and starts talking a little more Dovish" that could send the market back up to its record highs hit earlier.
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"There are those people who are unsatisfied by this statement because they were looking for a more dovish tone after last month's market volatility," said Gene Tannuzzo, deputy global head of fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle In Minneapolis.
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But on these major geopolitical challenges — including the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs, which seem among the few crises that could plausibly draw the US into war — Clinton is significantly more dovish than all three Republican candidates.
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However, there was little sign that the Fed is about to radically back down from the multiple rate hikes that it expects this year and come closer to the market's much more dovish outlook for U.S. monetary tightening.
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"Markets were geared up for a relatively dovish Fed and in the event got something even more dovish than they (were) expecting," Ray Attrill, head of foreign exchange strategy at National Australia Bank, wrote in a morning note.
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"The yellow metal has been on a very positive trajectory over the last six months as central banks have become notably more dovish around the globe and the dollar has hit a ceiling," OANDA said in a note.
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"There are those people who are unsatisfied by this statement because they were looking for a more dovish tone after last month's market volatility," said Gene Tannuzzo, deputy global head of fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle in Minneapolis.
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"Despite the dovish Fed last week, the trade-weighted dollar continues grinding higher as investors retain concerns about global growth and other central banks retain or shift towards a more dovish bias," ING analysts said in a note.
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Growth worries have pushed central banks around the world to adopt a more dovish stance, following the U.S. Federal Reserve's lead, with the Bank of Korea going a step ahead and surprising with a rate cut on Thursday.
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In a note to clients, they said a global shift towards a more dovish policy stance among central banks, concrete progress on Brazilian pension reform approval, structurally weak inflation and disappointing growth all point to substantially lower rates.
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"The RBNZ appears to be ahead of other G10 central banks in shifting to a more dovish policy stance, and this adjustment should continue to keep the kiwi under downward pressure in the near-term," MUFG analysts wrote.
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The statement from RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr had a slightly more dovish tone than at the meeting in May, adding warnings over recent weakness in economic growth and the potential fallout from escalating trade tensions among major economies.
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Most other euro zone bond yields also edged lower on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump appointed Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, seen as marginally more dovish than other candidates, the new head of the U.S. central bank.
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Germany's benchmark 10-year bond yield fell to a two-year low of just 0.034 percent, on track for its biggest one day fall since March 7 when the ECB surprised markets with its own more dovish stance.
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European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi confirmed expectations on Tuesday in expressing more dovish noises about the path ahead for interest rate normalization while observers cautioned about the implications for the euro zone economy and financial markets.
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Each of the major U.S. stock indexes finished at a record closing high, as expectations grew that the Federal Reserve would take a more dovish turn as a raft of data provided more evidence of a slowing economy.
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LONDON (Reuters) - The euro fell to a seven-week low and German bond yields dropped to six-week lows on Thursday after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde struck a slightly more dovish tone than some had expected.
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"In South Africa, the rand is quite sensitive to Fed policy so to the extent that the move is more dovish, that is a positive for 'higher beta' currencies," Fage said, referring to currencies displaying relatively more volatility.
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"The sustained decline in rates is a key factor (for gold), particularly as the Fed shifts to a more dovish stance," UBS analysts said in a note, raising their three-month gold price target to $1,430 from $0.63,380.
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"The minutes are a more dovish tint to the Fed's language and, on balance, likely suggest a lower likelihood of the Fed raising rates in March," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in New York.
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"I think the most important comment was the more dovish tone towards inflation expectations, and the point made about inflation hitting target reflects base effects from a year ago as well as an array of transitory factors," he added.
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Historically, the left-right split in Israel has focused on security issues: The left favors concessions to the Palestinians and a more dovish foreign policy, while the right is less sanguine about a two-state solution and more militaristic.
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On Wall Street, which closed at midday Wednesday for the eve of the U.S. Independence Day, all three major stock indexes finished at a record closing highs as expectations grew that the Fed would take a more dovish turn.
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"What we're seeing is that markets have climbed a wall of worry but there is progress on trade, a recession is unlikely, central banks have made nods to more dovish policy," said Chris Bailey, European strategist at Raymond James.
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Rising expectations for a rate cut, fueled by softer economic data and comments from global central banks indicating a more dovish stance helped the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones indexes post their best June performance in decades.
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"A lot of the central bank news is priced into equities and investors are now taking a step back to evaluate why central banks have turned more dovish," said David Holohan, a strategist at Mediolanum Asset Management in Dublin.
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As finance minister Mr Scholz would be more dovish than Wolfgang Schäuble—it is hard to imagine him endorsing Greek expulsion from the euro zone, for example—but his instincts do not differ drastically from those of Mrs Merkel.
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That move followed a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve in its June policy statement, with the odds of a rate cut in July moving to 250%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, after last week's Fed meeting.
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While there are still some who expect hikes next year and the consensus remains unchanged in showing interest rates on hold through to end-2020, nearly 70% of common contributors have turned more dovish compared with the previous poll.
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"Should the FOMC surprise either via a 50 bp rate cut or a more dovish tone than expected, the key top-side target for bullion remains at $1,450," industrial and trading services group MKS PAMP said in a note.
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"I am positive on gold in the near term because central banks recently have turned more dovish than expected, interest rates are going to stay low for longer and there is potential for the dollar to be weaker," Forex.
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"What we're seeing is that markets have climbed a world of worry but there is progress on trade, a recession is unlikely, central banks have made nods to more dovish policy," said Chris Bailey, European Strategist at Raymond James.
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The data compounded worries about the U.S. economic outlook after the Fed on Wednesday adopted a more dovish than expected stance, anticipating no further interest rate hikes this year and planning an end to its balance sheet roll-offs.
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As it has turned out, the Fed has been sounding more dovish (perhaps because the US economy was weak in the first quarter with the Atlanta Fed's tracker looking at just 0.3% annualised growth); the dollar's rally has halted.
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As major central banks shift to a more dovish approach on monetary policy, some market players expect the BOJ to ease as early as its rate review this month to prevent heightening global risks from derailing Japan's economic recovery.
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Oil is unlikely to reassert as the dominant driver until after a Bank of Canada interest rate decision in January, said BMO's Anderson, who thinks the central bank's more dovish tone has played a part in the weaker correlation.
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"What we are seeing is the market positioning for potentially a more dovish tone tomorrow," said Minh Trang, senior currency trader at California's Silicon Valley Bank, speaking about expectations of what the Fed's statement will be like on Wednesday.
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Sluggish growth, U.S.-China trade tensions and major central banks' shift toward a more dovish policy stance mean growth in Latin America will now be weaker, and any plans across the region to tighten monetary policy will be delayed.
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"The ADP payrolls report was slightly disappointing, and if replicated in Friday's jobs numbers, could prompt speculation about the prospect of the Fed being a little more dovish at next week's central bank rate meeting," CMC Markets told clients.
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The DACA debate has proven no different, as Meadows is already insisting on the tough-enforcement approach favored by immigration hawks — and using the leverage of the Freedom Caucus to threaten the more dovish bills pushed by GOP moderates.
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MEXICO CITY, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Mexico's central bank is seen cutting its benchmark interest rate for a fifth straight meeting later on Thursday amid a stagnant economy, and could take a more dovish tone in its post meeting statement.
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ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey's new central bank governor Murat Uysal, who served as deputy governor for three years before the shock dismissal of his boss, is known as one of the more dovish members of the bank's interest rate setters.
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Some analysts have argued BI has room to unwind these hikes to support economic growth this year, as the United States turns more dovish with its monetary policy and Indonesia's inflation stays near the lower end of BI's target range.
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The U.S. currency was also pressured as Treasury yields slipped on reports that Trump is likely to appoint Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, who is viewed as more dovish than other contenders, as the next head of the Federal Reserve.
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"The comments today were slightly more dovish than prior communications from the bank, given that the Governor conceded that the path back to neutral is not clear at the moment," said Royce Mendes of CIBC Capital Markets in a note.
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The U.S. dollar fell against a basket of major currencies on Thursday on a perceived lack of progress on U.S. tax reform and public spending, while Wednesday's more dovish-than-expected Federal Reserve meeting minutes continued to weigh on the greenback.
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Caron said one of the more dovish things the Fed could say would be that it is slowing the unwind of its balance sheet, as Trump suggested, but he does not expect the Fed to address that until next year.
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"There is a lot of suspicion that the Fed might be more dovish than hawkish at this point, given the very strong run-up in rates," said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management in New York.
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"We know that the Fed is going to be on pause for a while, but the market was pricing in a more dovish lean towards the end of 13," said Stephen Innes, head of trading and market strategy, SPI Asset Management.
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Minutes from the Fed's July meeting have cooled money market expectations of a bigger half-percentage point cut in rates next month but also potentially left Powell the room to be more dovish than the panel as a whole sounded.
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It is not impossible that Mr Trump would prefer a less independent Fed committed to getting him re-elected, however, in which case policy could actually become more dovish leading, maybe, to faster growth in output and a rise in inflation.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected on Tuesday to maintain a more dovish posture after the U.S. central bank last Wednesday signaled it could cut interest rates as early as July to battle growing global and domestic economic risks.
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An indirect hit from global market anxiety about U.S. tariff plans was "partly cushioned by the effects of a more dovish Fed rhetoric on EM currencies, which is particularly the case for the BRL," Rabobank noted in a report this week.
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The Fed began its two-day meeting Tuesday, and was widely expected by economists to lay the groundwork for a July interest rate cut with new forecasts on rates and the economy, and a more dovish post-meeting statement Wednesday.
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And if significant numbers of those more dovish voters take a pass in 2016, it won't do Clinton any good if a few dozen Washington war hawks wrote a letter on her behalf, or showed up to the polls in November.
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While the central bank took a more dovish tilt at its August review and sparked speculation of a possible near term rate cut, it changed tack in the last meeting in September with a slightly more upbeat statement on the economy.
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Haldane was ahead of most of his colleagues on the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee in calling for the BoE's only two interest rate rises since the financial crisis, having previously been viewed as one of the MPC's more dovish members.
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Then a growing swathe of dismal economic data has highlighted the Brexit fallout; it seems even to have persuaded the Bank of England to turn more dovish All that has sent the pound reeling 6% since early-May GBP=D3.
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"Even though we had a favorable backdrop being created by a more dovish U.S. Federal Reserve, gold is following the dollar, real yields and equities very closely at the moment," said Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Standard Chartered Bank.
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NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - Investors will focus on falling profits, a more dovish Federal Reserve and lower interest rates as major U.S. banks kick off what analysts expect to be the first quarter of contracting corporate earnings since 215.
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The Canadian dollar hit a one-week low after the Bank of Canada sounded more dovish than expected, saying it did not know when or how aggressive it would need to be on tightening in order to keep inflation in check.
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"The fact that the Fed has moved to a more dovish position suggests that those rates should remain relatively low compared to what ... we saw in late 2018," said Robert Dietz, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders.
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While both are seen as serious candidates to replace current Chair Janet Yellen when her term expires in February next year, Powell is seen as more dovish than Warsh, who has criticised the Fed's bond-buying programme in the past.
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"We are just seeing continued improvement in sentiment built around the more dovish tone from central banks, but clearly the safe-haven buying has also picked up with the U.S.-Iran tensions escalating over the weekend," ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said.
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"We are in the camp and have been all year, and arguably wrongly, that the Fed becoming more dovish and cutting rates is not good for risk assets," said Neil Dwane, global strategist and portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors.
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Alternatively, if Trump prefers someone with a current academic title, then he should tap Scott Sumner or David Beckworth from George Mason University, both of whom were elaborating the more dovish case back when Moore was still pitching the gold standard.
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"The tone should continue to be more dovish on the growth outlook... but we do not expect the BOT to cut the policy rate in 2019, owing to its concerns about financial stability" and limited room to cut, he said.
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His more dovish colleague, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker, said in a speech in St. Louis that he has penciled in just two interest-rate hikes for this year, though he signaled he is open to more if needed.
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Dollar money market futures were pricing in about a 70 percent chance of a rate hike by December, but a more dovish Fed candidate would likely prompt investors to bet on a slower retreat from the current loose monetary policy.
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell against a basket of major currencies on Thursday on a perceived lack of progress on U.S. tax reform, while Wednesday's more dovish-than-expected Federal Reserve meeting minutes continued to weigh on the greenback.
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"Treasury yields were slightly lower last week as testimony from [Fed Chair Janet] Yellen was perceived to be more dovish than expected, and as the market received data signaling weaker inflation and retail sales for June," said MBA economist Joel Kan.
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"We're worried about fiscal stimulus delivery in the U.S. If the Trump administration doesn't deliver then the Fed becomes more dovish, which means there's not going to be enough dry powder (cash reserves) to overcome the next recession," Gallo said.
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Markets had been expecting that the new MPC may be more dovish than the previous one, but most new members have so far signalled they saw no reason to cut rates further from their current all-time low of 1.5 percent.
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Shares in SocGen were down by around 2 percent in early session trading on Thursday, with the broader market falling by a similar amount after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates and dashed hopes of a more dovish outlook.
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However we feel that a portion of the overall rally was based on the Fed having a more dovish view of the long term, and this soft number was more than expected but thankfully it wasn't too much more than expected.
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Further policy easing from the Fed was not guaranteed to reignite capital flows to emerging markets, he added, pointing to the fall in capital flows to emerging markets in April and May, even after the Fed adopted a more dovish stance.
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A more dovish outlook for the central bank has also been reflected in overnight index swaps, which imply a nearly one-third chance of a rate cut this year after having been priced for no change in policy ahead of the Brexit vote.
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The fact that investors remain concerned over trade tensions impacting global growth and that the major central banks across the world are adopting a more dovish stance, the environment looks good for gold to continue shining, said Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM.
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"What we forecast for Asia next year is based on the fact that the Fed is going to be more dovish and we have the same view after last night: there's much less pressure to tighten," said Irene Cheung, Asia strategist at ANZ.
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Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar jumped briefly after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said on Thursday it still expected inflation to rise gradually as capacity pressures increase, thwarting some expectations it would strike a more dovish tone given recent soft economic data.
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Wall Street stocks rose on Wednesday, with each of the major indexes closing at a record high, as expectations grew that the U.S. Federal Reserve would take a more dovish turn as a raft of data provided more evidence of a slowing economy.
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Those moves are part of steep falls seen across major bond markets including the United States and Britain this year as a weaker global growth and a shift to a more dovish stance from central banks creates a favourable backdrop for fixed income.
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Data on UK gross domestic product and industrial output are due Wednesday, while the Bank of England (BoE) will release its financial stability report on Thursday, which could help traders gauge whether the BoE will take a more dovish view of the economy.
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The U.S. central bank's meeting on Wednesday was viewed as more dovish than expected after it said job gains remained solid, inflation had increased and economic confidence was rising, but gave no firm signal on the timing of its next rate move.
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"With the U.S. Federal Reserve now striking a more dovish pose as it also sees rising downside risks in the global economy, we shouldn't entirely rule out the possibility the next interest rate move may be downwards," Laith Khalaf, Hargreaves Lansdown analyst, said.
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Jeffrey Schultz at BNP Paribas said weaker growth, a benign developed market rates outlook - likely exacerbated by heightened U.S.-China trade tensions - and scope for further downside surprises to the Reserve Bank's CPI estimates, opens the door to a more dovish central bank.
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The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected on Wednesday but chief Jerome Powell said the move might not be the start of a lengthy campaign to shore up the economy against risks, disappointing investors who hoped for a more dovish stance.
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"You had especially weak inflation and as you see (from the yen and euro) it comes against this backdrop of central banks becoming more dovish again," although he also said that bond markets has seen far less reaction to the Swedish data.
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Data on British gross domestic product and industrial output are due on Wednesday, while the Bank of England will release its financial stability report on Thursday, which could help traders gauge whether the BoE will take a more dovish view of the economy.
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Chances of an interest rate cut by December, which had climbed this week on a more dovish tone from the Bank of Canada, fell to less than 2177 percent from about 25 percent before the jobs data, the overnight index swaps market indicated.
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Read MoreTraders look to data as Fed confuses "I think it's adding to the volatility, especially with the results of the meeting more dovish than expected, countered by commentary more similar to what we expect," said Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones.
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The central bank had adopted a more dovish tone at its last meeting in August, pushing out the timing of any rate rise until 2020 and warning it would shift its bias towards a rate cut if growth fell short of its expectations.
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"It's certainly not the kind of data that argues for the Fed to become even more dovish, and in that sense, it argues for the dollar's lossesto slow," said Shahab Jalinoos, global head of FX strategy at Credit Suisse in New York.
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Despite a larger-than-expected rate cut from the Turkish central bank last week, the lira was propped up by expectations that the Fed would begin a series of rate cuts this week, as well as a more dovish European Central Bank.
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"It's certainly not the kind of data that argues for the Fed to become even more dovish, and in that sense, it argues for the dollar's losses to slow," said Shahab Jalinoos, global head of FX strategy at Credit Suisse in New York.
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LONDON (Reuters) - British long-dated government bond yields rose to their highest in more than three months on Thursday as a global improvement in risk appetite and the prospect of big increases in public spending overshadowed a more dovish Bank of England.
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Asked what had changed since the December 6900 rate hike, Powell noted that there were four specific developments that had led the Fed to adopt a much more dovish stance since the previous Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in early May.
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Data on UK gross domestic product and industrial output are due Wednesday, while the Bank of England will release its financial stability report on Thursday, which could help traders gauge whether the BoE will take a more dovish view of the economy.
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"The two big drivers of stock returns so far this year have been optimism regarding a U.S.-China trade agreement and that the Fed has become a lot more dovish," said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors in Boston.
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"With the U.S. Federal Reserve now striking a more dovish pose as it also sees rising downside risks in the global economy, we shouldn't entirely rule out the possibility the next interest rate move may be downwards," Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Laith Khalaf said.
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"'If the Fed backs off and starts talking a little more Dovish, I think we're going to be right back to our 2,800 to 2,9000 target range that we've had for the S&P 500,' Scott Wren, Wells Fargo," the President tweeted.
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"The testimony was important not for what Powell may have said, but because it was the last chance for the Fed to hew to a more 'dovish' or 'continuity' line," said Thierry Wizman, global interest rates and currencies strategist at Macquarie Group.
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However, in this case, analysts have warned that a currency war between the euro and the U.S. dollar could spark if the Fed suddenly becomes more dovish, meaning that it delays the path to a rate hike, which in turn could make the .
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Internationally exposed stocks fell as traders sold-off the dollar and bet on more dovish signals from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, while uncertainty over how trade talks would pan out at the G20 summit hit shares of HSBC and other Asia-focussed banks.
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"It looks like ECB President Mario Draghi was a little more dovish than expected, so we are seeing the euro currency back off and the dollar strengthening, and this is weighing on gold prices," said Phil Streible, senior commodities strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago.
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After a scare at the end of last month, when stock markets skidded on the view that the era of easy money might be coming to an end across the globe, investors have been soothed by a run of more dovish comments from central bankers.
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, with each of the major indexes closing at a record high, as expectations grew that the Federal Reserve would take a more dovish turn as a raft of data provided more evidence of a slowing economy.
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The S&P 500 index has risen 2.7% this month on hopes that the Federal Reserve would take a more dovish approach to counter the impact of a protracted U.S.-China trade war, which has helped Wall Street's main indexes scale record levels this month.
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The S&P 1.30 index has risen 2.7% this month on hopes that the Fed would take a more dovish approach to counter the impact of a protracted U.S.-China trade war, which has helped Wall Street's main indexes scale record levels this month.
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"Fed will likely be a non-event, but if they are slightly more dovish in their language, I think you could see a reversal in the banks, but I don't see a lot of activity," said Aaron Clark, portfolio manager at GW&K Investment Management.
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What we're hearing: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is not enthusiastic about the cutting of U.S. funding to UNRWA, but is politically pressed by conservative ministers in his cabinet and by the fact he can't be more dovish on the Palestinian issue than President Trump.
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"There may be a little bit more downside to go on the euro to reflect the weakness of the euro zone economy, the impact of political uncertainty also the more dovish bias of the ECB," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.
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"The market's take on the FOMC minutes is to read them in a somewhat more dovish fashion on the view that the Fed seems too divided to raise rates anytime soon," said Alan Ruskin, global head of FX strategy at Deutsche Bank in New York.
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While Haskel agreed with the gist of the BoE's guidance that rates will probably need to rise, investors judged his tone to be more dovish than the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) Ian McCafferty, a long-time advocate of higher rates whom Haskel replaces in September.
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Global equities have been on a tear this year, bouncing back from the massive rout towards the end of 2018 after U.S. and European central banks took a more dovish stance on rate policy and on hopes of an imminent U.S.-China trade truce.
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The U.S. dollar fell below 108 yen for the first time in 17 months on Thursday on continued expectations the Bank of Japan was unlikely to intervene, while the euro fell against the dollar on the potential for a more dovish European Central Bank.
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LONDON, Dec 20 (Reuters) - German 10-year government bond yields fell to their lowest in nearly seven months on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected but dashed hopes of a more dovish stance fueling a global selloff in equities.
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"The Fed signaled that it is going to be data dependent but markets were priced for a more dovish outlook which the Fed did not deliver on," said Collin Martin, director of fixed income at the Schwab Center for Financial Research in New York.
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"The overall interpretation is maybe a little bit more dovish than what we had thought going in," said David Tulk, chief Canada macro strategist at TD Securities, adding the bank's next move might be a rate cut, rather than the rate hike many have forecast.
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Then a growing swathe of dismal economic data has highlighted the Brexit fallout; it seems to have persuaded the Bank of England to turn more dovish and markets are ramping up bets on a rate cut by year-end GRAPHIC: One direction for sterling - tmsnrt.
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Concerns about the worsening economic outlook in Britain - some analysts expect the economy contracted in the second quarter - encouraged Bank of England Governor Mark Carney to signal last week that the central bank may strike a more dovish tone at its August policy meeting.
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The kiwi had jumped briefly to levels above $0.7370 in early Asian trade on Thursday, after the RBNZ said it still expected inflation to rise gradually as capacity pressures increase, dousing some expectations it would strike a more dovish tone given recent soft economic data.
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But with a more dovish Fed and some sort of trade deal already priced in, further developments on trade "haven't really been having anything like the impact in markets that they would have done a week or a couple weeks or months ago," he said.
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The upcoming Fed meeting, on Tuesday and Wednesday, was seen as pivotal for Wall Street, with stocks primed for a selloff if the Fed fails to take an even more dovish tilt after policymakers' comments raised expectations for a rate cut in recent weeks.
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Later in the note, Feroli argues that the economy is strong enough to handle more hikes, and said the Fed's more dovish tone — cutting the projected number of hikes this year from 4 to 2 — is a function of the people on the committee.
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Powell was not as "dovish," or leaning against more rate hikes, as some investors may have wanted, but Panigirtzoglou thinks whether the Fed gets even more dovish next year will be the key factor in determining whether stocks get a boost in the beginning of 2019.
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"After the hat-trick of disappointing numbers last week and a more dovish sounding Bank of England, a weaker than forecast Q23 GDP on Friday would put to bed any remaining optimism of a May rate hike," said Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index.
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"With most central banks in neutral mode and official rhetoric tilting towards a more dovish slant amid the global growth slowdown story, we see there is little impetus for MAS to lean against the wind by tightening," said Selena Ling, OCBC's head of treasury research and strategy.
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More hawkish rate setters worry that if the Fed does not act to preempt inflation, it could end up behind the curve and lose credibility, while the more dovish members believe the economic recovery is still fragile and want to see firm evidence of inflationary pressures.
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All of Wall Street's three main indexes fell from record highs on Thursday following a flurry of downbeat quarterly results from Ford Motor and other companies and after European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi's comments disappointed investors hoping for a more dovish stance on monetary policy.
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OTTAWA, March 6 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada was widely expected to hold rates steady at its meeting on Wednesday, with the majority of analysts anticipating one more hike in 2019 even as recent data has clouded the outlook and could force a more dovish tone.
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell below 108 yen for the first time in 17 months on Thursday on continued expectations the Bank of Japan was unlikely to intervene, while the euro fell against the dollar on the potential for a more dovish European Central Bank.
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The new central bank governor is an ally of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party and some economists have expected that Glapinski might be willing to strike a more dovish tone on policy, in line with calls from the party for lower rates last year.
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields sank to fresh 15-month lows on Wednesday and German bond yields fell further below zero after more dovish talk from central banks, while a gauge of world stocks fell amid new signs of concern for the global economy.
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St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, one of the more dovish members on the central bank's policy-setting committee who's called for rate cuts, tried to diminish market expectations that the Fed was all but certain to make a big cut when it meets next in September.
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"US stocks have rallied sharply this year because investors expect that an eventual US-China trade deal combined with a more dovish Fed will lead to a noticeable bump in future earnings," Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said in a recent report.
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Rochester suggested that the next two weeks of data will likely determine whether the Bank of England adopts a more dovish approach, given dismal U.K. growth data of late, but argued that signs of a rebound in new orders and the global economy give cause for optimism.
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"US stocks have rallied sharply this year because investors expect that an eventual U.S.-China trade deal combined with a more dovish Fed will lead to a noticeable bump in future earnings," wrote Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors, in a recent report.
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar fell below 108 yen for the first time in 17 months on Thursday on bets the Bank of Japan will refrain from intervention, while the euro slipped against the dollar on the potential for a more dovish European Central Bank.
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"If the number were to come in lower than expectations, then I think what you would find is Canadian dollar bears will instantly expect more dovish comments from the Bank of Canada next week," said Brad Schruder, director of corporate sales and structuring at BMO Capital Markets.
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" Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser, Allianz, Newport Beach, California "The Federal Reserve continued its move to a significantly more dovish policy stance, delivering to bullish investors exactly what they were hoping and betting for in terms of the outlook for interest rates and balance sheet.
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NEW YORK, July 83 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday, with each of the major indexes closing at a record high, as expectations grew that the Federal Reserve would take a more dovish turn as a raft of data provided more evidence of a slowing economy.
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Here is some background on Turkey's new central bank governor: - Economists and bankers say Uysal has been one of the more dovish members of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, describing his views on interest rates as closer to the Turkish president than the previous governor.
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It's increasing the amount of flexibility that the Fed is giving itself for the rest of the year...That seems reasonable given what's going on from a global perspective...I think (stocks) are rallying because it was a little more dovish than I think consensus was expecting.
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Wall Street now expects rate hike much later this year: Survey Steve Liesman | Elizabeth Schulze The latest CNBC Fed Survey shows Wall Street anticipating a more dovish Fed in April than it did back in March, with the next rate hike not expected until much later this year.
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Yields had fallen since the Fed gave a more dovish-than-expected outlook on the economy on Wednesday, noting that the United States continued to face risks from an uncertain global economy even as fresh projections from policymakers showed they expected two quarter-point rate hikes by year's end.
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"Although it's likely the Fed minutes will continue to show a dovish/neutral stand and that should cap further dollar strength, the other central banks are certainly in the same mindset if not even more dovish," Peter Hug, global trading director at Kitco Metals, said in a note.
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"There may be disappointment that the 'dot plots' are not going to rise much higher and therefore the language from the Fed may be more dovish than what they let on last week," said Jeremy Cook, head of currency strategy at FX payments company World First in London.
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve should delay raising U.S. interest rates until it is confident inflation that is now "well short" of target will rebound, an influential policymaker said on Tuesday in the clearest signal yet the Fed is getting more dovish in the face of weak data.
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LONDON (Reuters) - A run higher for energy shares and miners, as well as strong updates from Norwegian lender DNB, and a more dovish tone from U.S. Federal Reserve Chief Yellen, helped drive European shares up on Wednesday, though renewed pain for publisher Pearson weighed on the media sector.
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The tone of economic readings has firmed up lately too, lending some credence to the hopeful notion that the global slowdown has won equity investors a more dovish Fed and lower interest-rate hurdles without the cost of a harmful economic downturn to the core of the domestic economy.
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week is shaping up as a pivotal one for Wall Street, with stocks primed for a selloff should the Fed fail to take an even more dovish tilt after policymakers raised expectations for a rate cut in recent weeks.
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"This was a bit more dovish than what people were expecting and that's evident in how the market responded, especially in terms of interest rates - the two-year falling, equities responding positively and the dollar weakening," said Jason Draho, head of Americas asset allocation at UBS Global Wealth Management.
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But currency traders have sold the dollar this week in part because they suspect Trump would prefer a weaker dollar given his protectionist stance on international trade, and in part because the uncertainty surrounding a Trump win might lead to a more dovish stance from the Fed in the months ahead.
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"If we were to see a significant improvement in the outlook for trade wars over the weekend, that combined with a more dovish Fed would boost risk appetite and we could see a flow back out of dollars into risk assets," said Jane Foley, a senior currency strategist at Rabobank.
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"The path forward likely remains range bound as investors are caught in a tug of war between weak fundamentals and exhausted technicals, on the one hand, and expectations of a more dovish Fed and stabilizing USD on the other," JPMorgan U.S. equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas wrote in a note Thursday.
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The minutes offered "nothing to suggest that policymakers felt the need to use the FOMC minutes to send a more dovish signal despite an escalation of the trade war and deeper inversion of the yield curve since the July meeting," wrote analysts at NatWest Markets in a note published on Thursday.
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NEW YORK, June 22001 (Reuters) - The Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week is shaping up as a pivotal one for Wall Street, with stocks primed for a selloff should the Fed fail to take an even more dovish tilt after policymakers raised expectations for a rate cut in recent weeks.
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His resignation would also mean the RBI is likely to be more dovish over monetary policy and willing to cut interest rates as Acharya, who is in charge of departments that look at monetary policy and exchange rate markets, had been regarded as more of an inflation hawk, economists said.
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"Producer price index is a key signal for the Fed in gauging whether or not to raise rates, so this should add some wind to the sails of those looking for a more dovish Fed," said Mike Loewengart, vice-president of investment strategy at E*Trade Financial in New York.
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"I'm shocked by Wednesday's statements and press conference because it's much more dovish than the market was expecting and I think that's going to keep the VIX at bay for now," Larry McDonald, managing director and head of global macro strategy at ACG analytics, told CNBC's "Trading Nation " on Wednesday.
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Currency traders have sold the dollar this week in part because they suspect Trump would prefer a weaker dollar given his protectionist stance on international trade, and in part because the uncertainty surrounding a Trump win might lead to a more dovish stance from the Fed in the months ahead.
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Chances of an interest rate hike at the Bank of Canada's next meeting in January slumped to 10 percent from about 60 percent before an interest announcement on Wednesday, when the central bank left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 1.75 percent and was more dovish than some investors expected.
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A key wildcard now is that the U.S. is much more divided on partisan lines than it was in the Reagan era or World War II. It's also a presidential election year, where two of President Trump's Democratic rivals have already sent multiple signals that they'd be more dovish with China.
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"There seem to be two different camps in the reading of those minutes - whether they introduced a more hawkish tone, or a more dovish tone - and it appears the doves are winning that battle," said Bill Northey, chief investment officer for the private client group at U.S. Bank in Helena, Montana.
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" JASON DRAHO, HEAD OF AMERICAS ASSET ALLOCATION, UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK "This was a bit more dovish than what people were expecting and that's evident in how the market responded, especially in terms of interest rates, especially the two-year falling, equities responding positively and the dollar weakening.
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The recent speeches from several officials have been interpreted as being more dovish, even if the officials haven't strayed much from their core message — that the Fed is on a gradual rate hiking path, that the U.S. economy is in good shape, inflation is steady and the Fed remains dependent on economic data.
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The stock market likes nothing better than a Federal Reserve that's more dovish than domestic economic conditions seem to warrant, which is what we seem to have, based on the way the U.S. job market has remained strong and the first-quarter stutter-step in GDP growth could turn out quite modest.
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With a background as an investment banker rather than as an economist rooted in a particular analytical framework, Powell will lead "a more data-driven Fed, which at the current juncture means a more dovish Fed," until and if inflation recovers, said Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance.
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Despite the more dovish than anticipated tone from the Fed, we still believe economic growth will accelerate modestly from here within the U.S. The U.S. consumer continues to benefit from tighter labor markets, low unemployment and low lending rates, while business spending outside of the energy and mining sector continues to grow.
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar eased off a six-week high against the yen and fell against the euro after weak U.S. April auto sales added to worries that the Federal Reserve may eventually take a more dovish-than-expected view on interest rate increases over the remainder of the year.
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Still, unlike last year when emerging markets faced added pressure from rising interest rates, this time a more dovish monetary policy stance from the Fed and other leading central banks appear to be offering a softer landing even if the more bullish hopes of a big 2019 recovery have been dashed again.
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"While continued tensions are likely to result in continued market volatility, we nonetheless find reasons to be positive about emerging markets, with a more dovish global central bank backdrop offering support," Chetan Sehgal, lead portfolio manager, and Andrew Ness, portfolio manager, Templeton Emerging Markets Investment Trust, said in a research note Monday.
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While the Fed surprised markets by being more dovish than expected, the Bank of England went the other way, sending sterling to a two-week high of $1.2364 after minutes showed one of nine rate-setters had voted for an interest rate hike, while others felt it would not take much to follow suit.
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The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell below 2000% for the first time since November 280 on Wednesday — breaching a key psychological level — after the Federal Reserve struck a more dovish tone in its June policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell said that the case for easier monetary policy had strengthened.
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"Even though we had a favorable backdrop being created by a more dovish U.S. Federal Reserve, gold is following the dollar, real yields and equities very closely at the moment and the strength in the dollar is weighing on gold in the near term," said Suki Cooper, precious metals analyst at Standard Chartered Bank.
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"There is a view which is not really consensus yet, but there is momentum towards the view that the ECB will probably adopt a more dovish exit than what has been priced, as a result of Italy and also because of expansion not being that strong," said Shweta Singh, senior economist at TS Lombard.
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Hopes for a thaw in U.S.-China trade tensions, a more dovish-sounding Federal Reserve and optimism that Britain could avoid a "No-Deal" Brexit are some of the factors that have fanned the return in investor risk appetite, which went into a deep freeze in December amid a slide in global equity markets.
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"I think we're finding out that Ms. Yellen is a lot more dovish than any Fed chair we've had in quite a while, and she's clearly positioned today that she is as concerned in global matters as she is about U.S. matters — which is a new thing," United Capital CEO Joe Duran told CNBC's "Power Lunch" after the remarks.
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Gains for the loonie came after Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said on Thursday that the central bank could start raising rates again "sometime down the road.." On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada held rates steady but took a more dovish stance than in recent releases, removing wording around the need for "future hikes," while lowering its growth forecasts for 2019.
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Another 2750% think the economy will be the same at year-end, putting distance between their sentiment and widespread fears of slowing global growth and a recession in the U.S. The Fed's shift from a series of rate hikes in 21 to a more dovish stance this year has been viewed as a primary catalyst for recent strength in stocks.
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"We're seeing the European Central Bank strike a dovish tone, we've seen the Bank of England clearly deliver a more dovish message on less hikes over a longer term, the Fed nomination (is) very much being seen as a steady as she goes so yes, rates are higher ... but it's still a very much accommodative environment for a good while longer," he added.
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"It never tends to last very long but that is the nature of the beast, the correlation causes the knee-jerk reaction" Underpinning the dollar's recent strength has been more dovish turns by global central banks outside the United States, as well as data pointing to a robust performance of the U.S. economy and a surge in Wall Street stocks to record highs.
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USA-STOCKS-WEEKAHEAD All eyes on Fed as stock market pines for rate cut NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week is shaping up as a pivotal one for Wall Street, with stocks primed for a selloff should the Fed fail to take an even more dovish tilt after policymakers raised expectations for a rate cut in recent weeks.
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It's unclear why she can't simply say, "It was a huge mistake, I've rethought my views on the use of force and learned from my mistake," but in lieu of that kind of fully honest reckoning, her burn at Sanders — "A vote in 2002 is not a plan to defeat ISIS" — was rhetorically effective if not particularly reassuring to more dovish Democrats.
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On Tuesday, Fox's prime-time talent stable urged the president against escalation, from hawkish supporters like Sean Hannity, who praised the drone strike that killed Qassem Soleimani but argued that "Washington swamp creatures [want to] send our kids to war," to the more dovish Tucker Carlson, who hammered the decision repeatedly from the moment the Iranian general's killing became public.
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Currency traders have sold the dollar this week in part because they suspect Trump would prefer a weaker dollar given his protectionist stance on international trade, and in part because the uncertainty surrounding a Trump win might lead to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve in the months ahead, instead of the interest rate hike that many expect by year-end.
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"Judging by the minutes from the July meeting the central bank seems content to sit on their hands, but it is worth remembering the U.S.-China trade situation has intensified, and so has the unrest in Hong Kong, and that might prompt Mr. Powell to be a touch more dovish than he was in late July," said David Madden, markets analyst at CMC Markets in London.
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The trade truce was the latest "circuit breaker" needed to trigger a return to risk appetite, said Guillermo Felices, head of research and strategy in the Multi-Asset, Quantitative and Solutions team at BNP Paribas Asset Management, "The first was markets pricing in a more dovish Fed, the second, more aggressive policy stimulus by the Chinese authorities and the third, easing trade tensions," he said.
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"Market participants were still digesting the FOMC minutes from the January meeting, and there seems to be two different camps in the reading of those minutes - whether they introduced a more hawkish tone, or a more dovish tone - and it appears the doves are winning that battle," said Bill Northey, chief investment officer for the private client group at U.S. Bank in Helena, Montana.
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"Draghi will try to roll out the dovish artillery to avoid the impression that there is any shift in the ECB's stance, but a shift is taking place nonetheless as the ECB will need to eliminate the more dovish guidance from its latest statements, like the possibility of more easing," John Hardy, head of forex strategy at Saxo Bank, told CNBC via email on Thursday morning.
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"Recent comments by the Federal Reserve suggesting a more dovish outlook for policy rates, as well as comments by President Trump prioritising healthcare reform ahead of tax reform and infrastructure spending, imply that improvements in the sector's revenues and profitability may take longer than previously anticipated to come through," a UBS team led by strategist Philip Finch and analyst Mariana Taddeo said in a Tuesday note, released Thursday to media.
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The jump has caught many by surprise as analysts expected the crown to weaken in the first quarter of 2020, which led many to adjust their forecasts to stronger levels compared to predictions from one month ago "We are not overly bullish on the crown in the short-term as industrial weakness continues and the (central bank) is likely to become more dovish during 2020 unless CPI surprises on the upside," Citi analysts said in a note.
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