This approach had a huge effect on the practice of macroeconomics, at least academic macroeconomics.
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Traditional macroeconomics cares only about aggregate levels of capital stock.
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By day, I'm really a macroeconomics and labor markets writer.
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I like the whole ... seeing the whole world, global macroeconomics.
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His research focuses on the role of information in macroeconomics.
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It's also how they talk about macroeconomics to each other.
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By the way, you care about macroeconomics more than anybody else.
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If there is a central question in macroeconomics, this is it.
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The shortfalls are particularly glaring when it comes to modern macroeconomics.
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"Things in Argentina are likely will get worse," Pantheon Macroeconomics predicted.
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It's true that her forte is more macroprudential policies than macroeconomics.
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And macroeconomics is a subject I'm supposed to know something about.
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Lanchester's provocative claim that macroeconomics is still mired in a deep and unresolved crisis invites readers to forget everything that they should know about macroeconomics and about U.S. macroeconomic performance during and after the Great Recession.
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"I think exports will disappoint," said Samuel Tombs, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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I give her an A on this portion of her macroeconomics exam.
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That's not shocking, according to Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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Macroeconomics, they said, is a much different beast than the tax code.
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With characteristic punchiness, Mr Kaeser blamed investor angst on geopolitics and macroeconomics.
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Men were more likely to sponsor bills in agriculture, energy and macroeconomics.
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"In one line: dreadful," said Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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SO THERE'S A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF IT THAT'S TIED TO MACROECONOMICS AND GDP.
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The intersection of customer satisfaction with macroeconomics and politics has potential bullwhip effects.
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"It's essentially untrackable and unknowable," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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" He continued: "Most people think austerity is mainstream macroeconomics, although it is not.
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It came from my macroeconomics professor in college, and I failed the course.
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Basic, old-fashioned macroeconomics didn't fail in the crisis – it worked extremely well.
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Everything in macroeconomics is linked, though not in ways that are fully understood.
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During that time, he headed the macroeconomics and policy division for five years.
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It is a mistake to think that the Great Recession invalidated Keynesian macroeconomics.
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Chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, Ian Shepherdson, agreed, albeit in more scathing tones.
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Christos Makridis is a Ph.D. Candidate in Macroeconomics and Public Finance at Stanford University.
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THERE'S DEFINITELY A CORRELATION BETWEEN THE ENTERPRISE AND GDP AND, YOU KNOW, OVERALL MACROECONOMICS.
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Claude Lopez is Director of International Finance and Macroeconomics Research at the Milken Institute.
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"The boost from Black Friday will be fleeting," Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics said.
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Meanwhile, in the US stock, both macroeconomics and individual stocks affect the market sentiment.
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George Pearkes researches and analyzes macroeconomics, credit, and equities for the Bespoke Investment Group.
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The Thread RE: ON MONEY John Lanchester wrote about the blind spots in macroeconomics.
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John Keynes never thought that macroeconomics, as a social science, could prevent capitalist crisis.
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Lose the bit about identity politics, and you have a clear summation of American macroeconomics.
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More difficulties, Mr Rowe suggests, follow from the fact that macroeconomics is a bit "weird".
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By contrast, Mr Moore holds some views that amount to a rejection of mainstream macroeconomics.
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After a strong 2017 we expect 2018, with supporting macroeconomics, to be another promising year.
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He challenged both the Keynesian backbone of macroeconomics and a prevailing belief in efficient markets.
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"Sterling's depreciation is doing more harm than good," Samuel Tombs of consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics said.
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Reed's research focuses the integration of behavioral economics in the field of macroeconomics and finance.
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Also, Russia will not see any automatic improvement in its ability to manage its macroeconomics.
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Too Big: The word "macroeconomics" doesn't turn up very often on the best-seller lists.
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Maybe, like physics in the 20th century, macroeconomics is about to have a heroic period.
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Mainstream macroeconomics uses a concept called the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or NAIRU.
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"The chancellor is constrained by politics really, not economics," Samuel Tombs of consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics said.
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First of all, only a small part of the economics profession is macroeconomics and monitor economics.
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Repolonisation is a matter of macroeconomics, not ideology, says Pawel Borys, the head of the PFR.
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Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy, thinks that the hung parliament "reduces hard-Brexit risk".
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Hartley is an economics contributor for Forbes and a co-founder of Real Time Macroeconomics LLC.
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However, past Fed chairs, including the once-revered Alan Greenspan, were not necessarily professors of macroeconomics.
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McCulley is senior fellow in Financial Macroeconomics and Adjunct Professor of Law at Cornell Law School.
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"There is a red line in the calendar," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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While men dominate macroeconomics, women are more visible among those studying labor markets, health and education.
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If they taught a course, it might be called Everything You Know About Macroeconomics Is Wrong.
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Macroeconomics and finance fields are especially male dominated, and they are the Fed Board's chief areas.
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A serious limitation of macroeconomics as a discipline is that controlled experiments are difficult to conduct.
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Mr. Flynn, whose background is in the military rather than in macroeconomics, said he didn't know.
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"Resistance to near-term action is still quite entrenched," said Ian Shepherdson, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, says the day's news isn't too much of a surprise.
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He continues to teach AP US Government & Politics and AP Macroeconomics at Providence High School in Burbank.
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Salim Furth is a research fellow specializing in macroeconomics at The Heritage Foundation's Center for Data Analysis.
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In its ability to speed things up, this "maglev" technology is matched by the magic of macroeconomics.
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"Awful, and worse to come," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote to clients on Thursday.
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This is the essence of macroeconomics, in contrast to microeconomics, which can also be called household economics.
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Yes, my profession needs to remember that macroeconomics, as a discipline, is about solving collective action problems.
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The Wall Street Journal: Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson: Societe General economist Omair Sharif to Bloomberg:
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"Tariffs are just a real income hit to consumers," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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These features have Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics harkening to the nasty but brief recession of 1980.
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" IAN SHEPHERDSON, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PANTHEON MACROECONOMICS: "In one line: Great news, but not enough on its own.
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Ian Shepherdson from Pantheon Macroeconomics told CNBC Thursday that next week's claim total could hit 2400 million.
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"Tariffs are just a real income hit to consumers," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"Strong growth will be hard to sustain in 2018," noted Samuel Tombs, UK economist at consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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Samuel Tombs, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said he still expected growth in overall spending to slow sharply.
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"There is some good news underneath the headline," said Sarah Hunter, head of Macroeconomics at BIS Oxford Economics.
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Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said manufacturing output should rebound modestly over the next few months.
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"While macroeconomics might start to have a greater influence, the big events are still Brexit related," he said.
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Donald Trump isn't proposing huge, budget-busting tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations because he understands macroeconomics.
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"The longer it takes, the deeper the ongoing slowdown will be," said Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson.
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"China's new Loan Prime Rate amounts to a rate cut," Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a research note Monday.
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US authorities reported 601 new cases of coronavirus infection on Wednesday, according to data tracked by Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"The manufacturing recession continues," Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note to clients.
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Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, called the jobs report "ominous" and weaker than the headline suggests.
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But Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said he had not seen evidence of pent-up demand.
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A native of France and longtime M.I.T. professor, he's known for his rigorous and careful research on macroeconomics.
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Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics director of research, said he sees only a minor impact on U.S. corporate earnings.
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Retail sales there have declined by 20.5% this year, according to a note from Pantheon Macroeconomics published Monday.
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"And thus died the June rate hike," Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson wrote in a note following the report.
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"China is caught between a rock and a hard place," said Miguel Chanco, senior Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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At least for those of us doughtily ploughing the rough terrain of macroeconomics, the answer is clear: an aggregate.
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THE YEAR 2007, when Emi Nakamura earned her PhD, was a strange one for her chosen discipline of macroeconomics.
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Mr Krugman, another Nobel-winner, reckoned Mr Lucas and his sort were responsible for a "dark age of macroeconomics".
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Salmon holds an M.A. in political economy with specializations in macroeconomics and comparative economic analysis from King's College London.
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It is unclear whether Mirziyoyev and Aripov will keep Azimov as deputy premier in charge of finance and macroeconomics.
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"GDP growth probably is holding up a little better than the PMIs imply," said Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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And on the other: Mr Cowen's view of dispassionate progress in macroeconomics is just not how things usually work.
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The shock it imposed on the U.S. economy when it imploded was exactly what standard macroeconomics would have suggested.
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Claus Vistesen, euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, recalled that European institutions will somehow continue their oversight on Greece.
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Samuel Tombs, an economist at consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the wage numbers appeared consistent with signs of rising underemployment.
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"Negative interest rates have been another nail in the coffin," said Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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Macroeconomics, the field devoted to those broader questions, has fallen into something of an existential crisis in recent years.
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At Yale, I took macroeconomics and realized that I did not understand the graphical relationship between guns and butter.
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Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson earlier told CNBC he thought next Thursday's jobless claims could soar to around two million.
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Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, sees the possibility of 5 million job losses in that month alone.
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" As he put it, "I think they keep you awake even while learning about something as dry as macroeconomics.
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Claude Lopez is the director of International Finance and Macroeconomics Research at the Milken Institute in Santa Monica, Calif.
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Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the data confirm that the country's economy was indeed slowing.
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Excluding spending for mining exploration, Macroeconomics Advisors found that nonresidential fixed investment growth actually fell in the second quarter.
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The recessions and disinflation of the early 1980s proved a watershed both for macroeconomics and the practice of central banking.
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Everett was formerly a reporter for CNBC in the United States covering international macroeconomics, trade policy, politics and financial technologies.
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China's economy could grow by less than 2% year-over-year, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish.
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Inflation could rise to 3.5% by the end of this year, according to Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy.
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In traditional macroeconomics, all saving serves the same purpose: investment in the capital stock, or new machines to make stuff.
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Professors can also sometimes forget that macroeconomics is full of faux amis: words that mean something different in everyday speech.
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"Much better, but sterling still is vulnerable if overseas investors lose confidence," said economist Samuel Tombs of consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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Paul Romer, a Nobel laureate last year, wrote in 2016 that "for more than three decades, macroeconomics has gone backwards".
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Samuel Tombs, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, described the size of February's pick-up in the Halifax data as implausible.
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Because of their proximity to America's Great Lakes, their approach to macroeconomics came to be known as the "freshwater" school.
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The basic idea in macroeconomics is that, as the economy gets stronger and more people have jobs, inflation will rise.
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"Markets appear to have bought into the immediate slowdown story," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote to clients.
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That accounted for about 0.6 percent of the growth in the second quarter, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics, a research firm.
|
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Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said inflation was already rising fast in metropolitan areas with low unemployment.
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"You have balance sheets that start to look very, very bad," said Miguel Chanco, senior Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"The warning signs here are clear enough," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note to clients.
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Elham Saeidinezhad, Ph.D., is a research economist in international finance and macroeconomics at the Milken Institute in Santa Monica, Calif.
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Ian Shepherdson is the chief economist and founder of Pantheon Macroeconomics, a provider of economic research to financial market professionals.
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So let me talk about three things: The unsung success of macroeconomics The excessive prestige of microeconomics The limits of empiricism, vital though it is The clean little secret of macroeconomics There's a story about quantum physics – not sure where I read it – about the rivalry between the physicists Julian Schwinger and Richard Feynman.
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" GREGORY DACO, HEAD OF U.S. MACROECONOMICS, OXFORD ECONOMICS, NEW YORK: "In general, these minutes tilt toward bullish on the economic side.
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Daan specializes in macroeconomic forecasting and writes research on a variety of themes related to macroeconomics, financial markets, and central banking.
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In macroeconomics it means the opposite of consumption (or, more precisely, not buying new consumer goods with income earned from production).
|
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Samuel Tombs, an economist Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy, said the CBI survey suggested many factories were now running at full capacity.
|
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A new version of the "Handbook of Macroeconomics", an influential survey that was first published in 1999, is in the works.
|
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" Yair Listokin is the Shibley Professor at Yale Law School and the author of "Law and Macroeconomics: Legal Remedies to Recession.
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"It's going to be harder for them to extract concessions from their lenders," says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
|
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Tate Lacey is a policy analyst at the Cato Institute's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives, covering monetary policy and macroeconomics.
|
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This identification problem is particularly severe in macroeconomics, which has a lot of moving parts, many of which move each other.
|
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"No one is going to accept that," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics and a contributor to The Hill.
|
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Expect job growth to rise above a monthly pace of 200,000, argues Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics in a research note.
|
|
Wenger might know his macroeconomics from his microeconomics, but he wouldn't know where to find the drill bits at B&Q.
|
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Russia is tightly managed from the standpoint of macroeconomics, and Putin may not desire multiple licks of the red-hot spoon.
|
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"Higher oil prices represent a tax on oil consumers and a windfall for producers," Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson writes.
|
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"Spending on equipment likely will continue to drift down," Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson writes in a note to clients.
|
|
Stock previously served on President Obama's Council of Economic Advisors from 2013-2014, where his responsibilities included energy, climate and macroeconomics.
|
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Trump's briefings were being shaped to address macroeconomics, trade, and "alliances," Flynn told me, in a telephone conversation earlier this month.
|
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The British electorate faces a "terrible choice" at the ballot box next month, according to the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
|
|
And events soon confirmed Macroeconomics 101: America didn't turn into Greece, and countries that imposed harsh austerity suffered severe economic downturns.
|
|
"May's public finance data are not a sign that the economy is losing momentum," economist Samuel Tombs from Pantheon Macroeconomics said.
|
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"Fillon is still the safe bet," Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNBC on Thursday over the phone.
|
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" * "We are by default not very sensitive to macroeconomics, because hearing aids will mostly not be a matter of luxury but necessity.
|
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Yes, but: "This looks terrible, but it won't last," says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note to clients.
|
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Source: FactSet Longtime market strategist Barry Knapp this month launched Ironsides Macroeconomics with an extended comparison of 2018-'19 to 1987-'88.
|
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"That's the main risk for (the 2017 election)," Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNBC over the phone.
|
|
"This may indicate that firms are becoming more cautious about the outlook," said Sarah Hunter, head of Macroeconomics at BIS Oxford Economics.
|
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Pantheon Macroeconomics said on Monday that it still anticipated American economic growth to gain steam this year, driven by improving consumer confidence.
|
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So calm down about the short-run macroeconomics; grieve for Europe, but you should have been doing that already; worry about Britain.
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He wrote numerous articles and books at Brookings, including "Memos to the President: A Guide Through Macroeconomics for the Busy Policymaker" (1992).
|
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Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said there was now "considerable doubt" about the likelihood of a rate cut in November.
|
|
Expect to see one percentage point of G.D.P. wiped out in the third quarter, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
|
|
To normal human beings the study of international trade and that of international macroeconomics might sound like pretty much the same thing.
|
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"The Fed's statement yesterday oozed dovishness, for no apparent reason," Ian Shepherdson, chief economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote to clients on Thursday.
|
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The big picture: "Overall, this clearly is a positive report," Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson wrote in a note to clients.
|
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But I think this is a case where macroeconomics, even though I believe it's right, gets in the way of useful discussion.
|
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"The Fed can't stand by as markets melt," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a research note to clients.
|
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"He went into macroeconomics, and I don't think any of his work was published in what are considered good journals," Glazer said.
|
|
The macroeconomics research company expects the 10-year government bond yield to rise to 2.75 percent by the end of the year.
|
|
Given this goal — to avert systemic crises and downturns — the credit crunch and the Great Recession were, for macroeconomics, an intellectual disaster.
|
|
The same factor is making Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, more bearish on sterling than some of his peers.
|
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The correction he sees isn&apost one of macroeconomics or consumer spending, but of the power dynamics between venture investors and founders.
|
|
" On Dow 10,000: "I was what I am today, a professor at Wharton, teaching macroeconomics in March 0003 when the Dow crossed 10,000.
|
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Receiver of medals for epochal contributions to macroeconomics, public finance, labor—not to mention his rare insight into women's gender-borne intellectual shortcomings.
|
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" On Dow 10,000: "I was what I am today, a professor at Wharton, teaching macroeconomics in March 0003 when the Dow crossed 10,000.
|
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"This time around both sides can contemplate Greece leaving the euro," Claus Vistesen, euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNBC on Thursday.
|
|
Aged 43, and a scholar in the field of finance and macroeconomics, Mian is regarded as one of the world's top young economists.
|
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Sterling could tumble if only a small proportion of holders of these assets sold up, says Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy.
|
|
"This is as good as it's likely to get until the trade war is resolved," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
|
|
Macroeconomics is difficult to teach partly because its theorists (classical, Keynesian, monetarist, New Classical and New Keynesian, among others) disagree about so much.
|
|
It was five minutes before the first class of the autumn term at Carleton University in Ottawa, where he has long taught macroeconomics.
|
|
Yet, unlike our batch in 2008, this year's group does contain two economists who have carried the credibility revolution some way into macroeconomics.
|
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"(The ISM reading is) consistent with robust growth in output, exports, capital spending and employment," said Ian Shepherdson, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
|
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"Overall I think it will provide a small stimulus to the economy ... but it's not a game-changer," Pantheon Macroeconomics' Samuel Tombs said.
|
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She is responsible for developing the firm's position on macroeconomics and public policy in India, leading the firm's economics research franchise from Mumbai.
|
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"The US now responds to lower oil prices like an OPEC member," Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson wrote to clients last week.
|
|
"The market reacted positively because the market hears what it wants to hear," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNN Business.
|
|
"We have the macroeconomics of health care — which is that it is unaffordable for everyone," Dr. Davis said in an interview on Wednesday.
|
|
"We see no sign of any downturn, suggesting employers remain fundamentally bullish," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, a forecasting firm.
|
|
"Consumers often feel less optimistic in election years, and 2016 is no exception," said Gregory Daco, head of United States macroeconomics at Oxford.
|
|
"No recession, but most definitely a very weak economy," Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a research note.
|
|
A third, uncited, even argues that macroeconomics has cultivated a "pretence of knowledge": it acts as if it is better than it is.
|
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But as Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics writes in a research note, the Fed pays closer attention econometrics than it does public opinion.
|
|
"The problem is that there is no perfect measure of wage growth," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, a research firm.
|
|
An economics professor who studied at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Savona has written numerous books on international banking, monetary systems and macroeconomics.
|
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" Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics: "In short, the statement sets up the March hike, which will be followed by Jay Powell's first press conference.
|
|
Countries surrounding countries could be in "real trouble" if the current trends continue in those places, Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a briefing note.
|
|
Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNBC on Tuesday that she didn't expect the trade growth to continue in Asia.
|
|
"The sector can't thrive when it's being hit by new taxes at random every few weeks," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
|
|
Now, though, as we transition into a new and terrifying age, we're experimenting with an exciting form of macroeconomics: the one-man attention economy.
|
|
Paul Samuelson, the Nobel prizewinner from MIT who also tutored President Kennedy in 1960, wrote the dominant primer on macroeconomics for 20th-century undergraduates.
|
|
"In general, these minutes tilt toward bullish on the economic side," said Gregory Daco, head of U.S. macroeconomics at Oxford Economics in New York.
|
|
There is "early evidence that sterling's Brexit-driven depreciation already is pushing up inflation," according to Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
|
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Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy, sees average rates on new mortgages jumping by 0.25 percentage points as a consequence of its withdrawal.
|
|
In the decades after the Depression economists argued, sometimes bitterly, over how to build on the ideas of John Maynard Keynes, macroeconomics' founding intellect.
|
|
Added to that, Claus Vistesen, the chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that new elections in Italy are just around the corner.
|
|
Meanwhile, in macroeconomics — which covers the big, broad issues that a president typically worries about — the concept of the ''deal'' hardly exists at all.
|
|
Freya Beamish, the chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that a reduction was widely expected, and had been well signaled for several weeks.
|
|
Clarity can come from modern monetary theory, an approach to macroeconomics largely based on the original ideas of the great economist John Maynard Keynes.
|
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I have to take an entry-level macroeconomics course and while you'd think it'd be easy, it's actually really hard (for me at least).
|
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This quote from Ian Shepherdson, founder and chief U.S. economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, went viral after it was referenced by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon.
|
|
Barry Knapp, director of research at Ironsides Macroeconomics, also expects a consolidating phase next year, but he expects it to be closer to April.
|
|
Ian Shepherdson, founder and chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNBC earlier that he thought next Thursday's jobless claims could be around 2 million.
|
|
Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics said the sector could experience a quick recovery around the turn of the year, if the Brexit deadline of Oct.
|
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The BJP, he added, had overcome "disastrous macroeconomics with effective microeconomics", providing some of India's poorest with toilets, loans, cooking gas connections, housing and electricity.
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"February's data shows that the construction sector has been one of the biggest losers from the Brexit vote," said Samuel Tombs, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
|
|
"If you thought 2016 would be the Year of the Rise you may need to think again," said Yael Selfin, Head of Macroeconomics at KPMG.
|
|
Vistesen from Pantheon Macroeconomics said that the figures are somehow "distorted" because many Spaniards have gone back to studying or are working without being registered.
|
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Meanwhile, Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, seemed relatively optimistic about inflation prospects in the months ahead in light of recovering oil prices.
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Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the narrowing of the deficit in September almost entirely reflected an improvement in trade in erratic items.
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Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, warned against reading too much into the CBI's figures which were based on a small number of retailers.
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Macroeconomics must get to grips with its epistemological woes if it hopes to maintain its influence and limit the damage done by the next crisis.
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"Switzerland is still recovering from the currency shock and it hasn't completely recovered yet," said Alexander Koch, head of macroeconomics at Bank Raiffeisen in Zurich.
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Those regions all have the tools in place — accelerators, local VCs, stable politics, regulations and macroeconomics — that mean VC funding can have a real impact.
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Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, believes that Catalonia's inability to push through with independence is a key reason for the optimism.
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"As of now, this doesn't look like an end-of-the-world event," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, an independent research organization.
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" • Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics writes, "In short, the statement sets up the March hike, which will be followed by Jay Powell's first press conference.
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"It is not obvious to me that the market has hit a floor yet," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNBC on Friday.
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"The Fed is on course to do nothing for the foreseeable future," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note to clients.
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"We continue to think the most likely outcome of the election is a small Conservative majority of under 60," said Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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This isn't the first time Haldane has been critical of the current state of macroeconomics — that's the big-picture, whole-economy side of the profession.
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"We expect a clear upturn over the first half of this year, but it isn't happening yet," wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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IN 190 John Maynard Keynes, who invented macroeconomics, used a biographical essay about his mentor Alfred Marshall to muse on the qualities of a good economist.
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That disaster posed a problem for quasi-experimental empirical methods, which work better for data-rich microeconomics than for macroeconomics, where the data are less plentiful.
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But Guy Miller, chief market strategist and head of macroeconomics at Zurich Insurance, cautioned on Friday that economic conditions could take a turn for the worse.
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Turkey's outlook got worse on Monday as the country continues slipping into dictatorship, under a dictator who doesn't seem to care much for laws or macroeconomics.
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"I don't try to do macroeconomics, I don't think economists do it very well, and I don't think VCs should try to do it," he says.
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Two-thirds of British economists polled by the Centre for Macroeconomics disagree with the statement that "economic growth prospects for the global economy have seriously deteriorated".
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The rise since 2007, when the financial crisis got under way, adds weight to the idea that suicide studies are really just a branch of macroeconomics.
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NEW YORK (Reuters) - Paul McCulley, the former chief economist at Pimco, has joined Cornell Law School as senior fellow in financial macroeconomics, Cornell said on Wednesday.
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The point is that as I see it, the past 7 or 8 years have if anything been a vindication, not a refutation, of basic macroeconomics.
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Macroeconomics — the study of business cycles and long-term growth — is a minority of academic economic work but tends to be unusually salient in the media.
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What's really important here, however, is to point out the essential difference between the attitudes of new trade theory and "freshwater" macroeconomics toward real-world experience.
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"It looks good, but it's never happened before when you have hurricanes making landfall in successive survey weeks," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"Germans like their rules and they like to interpret them very narrowly," said Tom Krebs, professor of macroeconomics and economic policy at the University of Mannheim.
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"Just by interacting with her, answering questions, thinking about issues the way she did, I learned to do macroeconomics and labor economics simultaneously," Ms. Daly said.
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It's mostly psychology (are people feeling more greedy or more fearful?) combined with some high-level macroeconomics (is there a glut or shortage of global savings
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"We fear the chill winds from Brexit will only intensify unless the withdrawal agreement is signed off soon," economist Samuel Tombs of consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics said.
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Rabobank forecasts German Bund yields will fall as low as minus 0.30 percent by the end of the year, as the supply skew combines with weakening macroeconomics.
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"We are long-term oriented and don't think that we understand the macroeconomics enough that we are making bets that are specific to that piece," says Gates.
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"If you forget Germany, Spain is the real success story in this business cycle," Claus Vistesen, chief Eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNBC over the phone.
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John Hicks helped to turn Keynes's great work into the models that would form the basis of macroeconomics textbooks, and shape policy thinking, for decades to come.
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Greg Mankiw of Harvard, whose textbook on macroeconomics has replaced Samuelson's, is even more explicit that there can be too much as well as too little saving.
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It is a trend that some economists, such as Ian Sheperdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, say is likely to stay with us for a bit.
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Nor is it news that the media—whether newspapers, magazines or television—cheerfully obliged, interviewing the tycoon on matters ranging from public policy to geopolitics to macroeconomics.
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"A July rebound, therefore, was always likely but this is a gratifyingly big increase," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note to clients.
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Angus Armstrong, director of macroeconomics at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, said the familiar pattern of consumers driving the economy was likely to fade.
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"The near-term risks to sterling remain heavily tilted to the downside," Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a research note on Tuesday.
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Since banks typically pay around 1% for funding from retail deposits or in wholesale markets, this is a boon, says Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy.
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But Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics said that signs of softening inflationary pressure in the services PMI raised the prospect that inflation would drop off more quickly.
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In 2008, on the eve of the financial crisis, Olivier Blanchard, then chief economist of the IMF, published a paper celebrating the convergence of thought within macroeconomics.
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At that time, Truman's command of macroeconomics was severely limited, and the store fell victim to the American postwar bust, which brought vast price deflation and unemployment.
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"When the president calls for lower oil prices, he's ignoring the new reality," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote to clients in a November report.
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However, Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said consumer spending data were often volatile and it would take time before a weaker trend became apparent.
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Well, I'm a medical doctor and anthropologist, so when I came in here I had to really intensively study macroeconomics and finance especially, two of the areas.
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Yair Listokin is the Shibley Professor of Law at Yale Law School and the author of Law and Macroeconomics: Legal Remedies to Recessions (Harvard University Press 2019).
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"The virus is beatable, but the measures that are required to beat it are economy killers," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, a research firm.
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Coming from a giant of modern macroeconomics, it underscores just how worried the field as a whole has become about the long-running decline in borrowing costs.
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These agents collide and overlap and interact and generate predictions through a messy process more akin to real life than the clean models of old-fashioned macroeconomics.
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"The ECB is now going all in on achieving what we think is a structurally unattainable inflation target," said Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"I just about fell out of my chair when he said that," Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told the FT. The news nonetheless pleased investors.
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A slowdown in growth in tax revenues in March was a new sign that Britain's economy is losing its momentum of last year, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Samuel Tombs said.
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Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy, reckons that, in the event of a no-deal Brexit, sterling would drop to $1.15, its lowest level in three decades.
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Pre-crisis macroeconomics had such strong faith in the stabilising power of monetary policy that it neglected the dangers of financial shocks and the merits of fiscal stimulus.
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I don't know that that's true at all about macroeconomics; this year's Nobel laureate Paul Romer has argued the field actually moved backward in the last three decades.
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Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNBC that if Macron wins, the ECB is likely to change its forward guidance at its June meeting.
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The IMF, which a year previously had planned to lay off staff because of the paucity of crises, swept up many of the PhDs in macroeconomics in 2009.
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"A disturbing development over the past year has been the decline in foreign direct investment inflows to (emerging markets)," said Ulrik Bie, IIF's chief economist for global macroeconomics.
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He previously worked in the Center for Economic Studies at the U.S. Census Bureau and in the macroeconomics research group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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"The relapse in the services PMI adds to evidence showing the recovery lost further momentum towards the end of 2015," Pantheon Macroeconomics chief UK economist Samuel Tombs said.
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Everyone used to say that about the U.S. Ian Shepherdson is the chief economist and founder of Pantheon Macroeconomics, a provider of economic research to financial market professionals.
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This is not a dirty secret, but rather the essence of macroeconomics, in contrast to individual household economics: Spending drives jobs and income, not the other way around.
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Cities where joblessness is 3.5 percent or lower have had an impressive 4 percent year-over-year increase in earnings, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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And according to an analysis by Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for the forecasting firm Pantheon Macroeconomics, wages are rising faster in regions where the unemployment rate is lowest.
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The White House credited those policies with narrowing the deficit during the second quarter, but that narrative is now unraveling, wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"It's actually been a U.S. bull market - very little else has done very well," Guy Miller, chief market strategist and head of macroeconomics at Zurich Insurance Group, said.
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"The Fed will soon have to step in to try to put a firebreak in the stock market," Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson writes in a note.
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In macroeconomics, it's the thing that makes the economy grow without having to add jobs, and it's defined as gross domestic product (GDP) divided by total hours worked.
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The two surveys' readings actually are consistent with nonfarm payrolls growth of around 50,000, according to economists Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics and Michael Pearce at Capital Economics.
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"It remains difficult to see how domestic demand will maintain its momentum when producers push through even bigger price rises," Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said.
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Mr. de Zuviría's photography offers a salient reminder of the city's recent past, and of the street-level essentials that can become lost in the haze of macroeconomics.
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"The authorities will not cease easing ... until they see definitive signs that PPI rises are recovering," Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note.
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"Germany's recession is all but confirmed," Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a recent research note, following the release of grim industrial production data.
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Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson believes that number next Thursday could spike to 2 million as the full force of the halt in the economy slams the labor market.
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In the 1960s and 1970s a consensus (or, at least, what passes for one in macroeconomics) emerged that government efforts to boost demand could push unemployment only so low.
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But after past depreciations, it has taken two to three years for net trade really to contribute to GDP growth, points out Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy.
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Reports like Thursday's GDP data, though, make it less likely this year's overall growth will match that rate, according to Gregory Daco, head of U.S. macroeconomics at Oxford Economics.
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"Nationwide's data confirm that house prices remain on an essentially flat trend, primarily because Brexit uncertainty has instilled some caution among buyers," economist Samuel Tombs from Pantheon Macroeconomics said.
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"The adverse impact of uncertainty about the outcome of the EU referendum can be seen clearly across all the latest lending data," Samuel Tombs, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said.
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"If we stick to what the survey data are telling us, consumer sentiment and business sentiment have been pretty resilient," said Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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The collapse in their shares is consistent with a 5% fall in house prices next year, based on historical data, according to Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy.
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However Samuel Tombs, an economist at consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the softening appeared gradual enough for the Bank of England to steer clear of any rate cut for now.
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The strategy, which focuses on being less correlated to global stocks and economic downturns, uses 30-year government bonds, commodity trading advisors (CTA) and global macroeconomics focused hedge funds.
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Leaving aside the general issue of exchange rate regimes, this is a reminder that microeconomics – things like the incentive effects of a strong welfare state – is different from macroeconomics.
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The charts, published by economic research consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics, showed a sharp rise in new cases in European countries outside Italy, the worst-affected country outside China, on Tuesday.
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But here's my question: where are the examples of microeconomic theory providing strong, counterintuitive, successful predictions on the same order as the success of IS-LM macroeconomics after 2008?
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"They will dance, they will sing, they will say, look at the plunge in the trade deficit in the second quarter," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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US manufacturing "is stuck in a mild recession with little prospect of a real near-term revival," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note Monday.
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"Although the data beat our expectations, it does come off the back of a very weak March quarter," said Sarah Hunter, head of Macroeconomics Australia at BIS Oxford Economics.
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"Domestic demand faltered the last time producers increased prices this quickly in 2011, and we doubt that this time will be different," said Samuel Tombs, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"With a gradual stabilisation in macroeconomics and potentially some improvement on geopolitics, we could see stronger demand from good names," Sberbank's chief financial officer Alexander Morozov told a conference call.
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"It is increasingly difficult … to see how gilt yields could fall much further from here," argues Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a report published last week.
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"Leaving the EU threatens the loss of 183 free trade agreements with other countries, as well as restricted access to the single market itself," said Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"The collapse in all surveys of activity and confidence undertaken since the referendum suggest GDP is on course to contract in Q3," Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief UK economist Samuel Tombs said.
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"Even if the market were to roll over, it doesn't have the capacity now to wreck the economy," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote to clients on Monday.
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Because the same global shifts in capital markets and in macroeconomics I am observing in my job are now becoming visible in how the sponsorship of this event is changing.
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A weighted average of Purchasing Manager Index data — which correlates closely with GDP growth — implies that British GDP was exactly zero in Q1, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst Samuel Tombs.
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"It's likely that the increase in tariffs on imports from China is responsible for some of this decline," wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a research note.
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"Their lockdowns are more recent than Italy's and it will take longer for progress to emerge," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a research note published Friday.
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Modern macroeconomics is a bit like that, if you can imagine Schwinger in control of all the journals and in a position to prevent anyone from publishing the simpler version.
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"The IMF will have to negotiate with Fernández ... because it will want to avoid a financial crisis that could easily impact emerging markets," said Andres Abadia, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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To understand this, it is useful to touch on basic concepts from macroeconomics 101: The tax multiplier, the marginal propensity to consume, and the impact of household formation on consumption.
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"Iran's leaders probably aren't suicidal; we doubt they will take action that will trigger air strikes on Tehran," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a Friday report.
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"We are experiencing a revolution right now in macroeconomics, particularly in the policy space," said Mark Paul, an economist who is a fellow at the liberal Roosevelt Institute in Washington.
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"Headline looks better than it is, but it signals strong growth in third-quarter manufacturing and capex," Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in an email.
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Survey data for April showed that the delay "has done little to revive confidence among business or consumers," said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a recent note.
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"Easing likely will be modest, due to the much higher outlook for inflation following sterling's precipitous decline," Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a research note Friday.
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Many of the oil companies are about to raise capital expenditure in the third quarter of the year in the hope of greater prices, according to a forecast by Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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And because the Case-Shiller data tend to lag median existing home prices, there are likely to be "hefty increases" for the next few months, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson.
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I think in the current climate, where the macroeconomics are really good and GitHub got acquired, people are seeing that there's one independent company, one startup left basically in this space.
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The Federal Reserve also must describe how the rule it selects differs from the Taylor rule, a guideline popular in macroeconomics circles which the Federal Reserve already tracks internally quite closely.
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Mr Romer made a name for himself in the 1980s and 1990s, when the hottest topic in macroeconomics was growth—in particular, why some countries managed it while others did not.
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But as a whole, the problem of connecting former prisoners to good jobs presents a thorny mix of race and class, institutional bureaucracies and individual initiative, macroeconomics and corporate decision-making.
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By the calculations of Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, the tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods could shave 0.25 percent off United States gross domestic product growth.
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Old-fashioned macroeconomics, based on loose psychological propositions like the marginal propensity to consume, and often describing aggregate relationships without explicitly describing what individuals were doing, was considered dubious and uncouth.
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"The euro zone economy maintained its strong first-half momentum in the third quarter judging by the PMIs," Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in an email.
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"We created a miracle on the streets," said You Jong-il, a professor of macroeconomics and development policy in Sejong City, referring to huge, peaceful street protests demanding Ms. Park's resignation.
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Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, believes the worst of the South Korea's economic slowdown may already be over, which could give the central bank some room to pause.
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"The moderation in price growth primarily reflects the squeeze on real wages and the slowdown in the pace that mortgage rates are falling," said Samuel Tombs, economist at consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"The sector is stuck in a mild recession with little prospect of a near-term revival," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note to clients on Monday.
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By the numbers: Expectations fell 0.9 points during the month and have dropped by 17.5 points from their 2019 peak in July, Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson says in a note.
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So far, however, the economy has shown "surprisingly few signs that Spain's political uncertainty has dented economic activity," Pantheon Macroeconomics' Chief euro zone economist Claus Vistesen said in a note on Monday.
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"Many retailers will have to increase prices in the first half of next year to respond to a falling sterling," Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNBC on Tuesday.
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"Deterioration in surveys of employment intentions and the recent increase in minimum pension contributions also suggest that growth in households' real spending will remain weak," Samuel Tombs of consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics said.
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The global head of research at another large U.S.-based bank estimated that 95 percent of what clients pay after the changes will be for equities research and only 5 percent macroeconomics.
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"Britons contemplate the crisis of the euro as a little bit of proof that they were right not to join," said Giancarlo Corsetti, a professor of macroeconomics at the University of Cambridge.
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LOCOMOTIVE THEORY Between the 21s and the 29s, it was common to characterize the United States as the locomotive of the world economy (On the locomotive theory in international macroeconomics, Bronfenbrenner, 218).
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Pantheon Macroeconomics, for instance, expects U.S. growth to fall 10 percent in the second quarter, driven by a collapse in discretionary consumer spending (which accounts for more than a third of G.D.P.).
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Among economists more generally, a lot of the criticism seems to amount to the view that macroeconomics is bunk, and that we should stick to microeconomics, which is the real, solid stuff.
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Vetting the unbanked The problem that Nubank and Vélez are tackling goes far beyond the struggles of the individual unbanked, as the effects ripple deeply into countries' macroeconomics and culture at large.
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He had been deputy director of research at the bank from 2004 through 2008 and served as director of the macroeconomics and policy division in the research department from 2008 until 2012.
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"They [Fed officials] are not kidding when they say they do not know whether they will be cutting on October 30 or December 11," said Barry Knapp, managing partner at Ironsides Macroeconomics.
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"The economy could easily stall in the first quarter, and then the question is what happens in the second" if the shutdown persists, said Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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While there will be a spending outline through to 2024, May and Hammond probably want to hold spending commitments back to reward ministers who might resist her Brexit plans, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Tombs said.
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But while it held rates again on Thursday, BI Governor Agus Martowardojo said the bank may ease its policy sooner if macroeconomics conditions are maintained during the transition period to a new benchmark.
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After his enjoyably rigorous lecture on macroeconomics, Mr Groom's second taste of his department comes from Ha-Joon Chang, author of popular books such as "23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism".
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So I rambled for a half hour about macroeconomics and then wandered over to game theory and then tried to explain the relationship between the prisoner's dilemma and the tragedy of the commons.
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"The collapse in the total orders balance ... signals that support from the weaker pound simply is not powerful enough to offset slumping domestic demand," Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said.
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Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at the research consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics, warned in a note to clients on Monday that the shutdown is starting to do "real damage" to first-quarter economic growth.
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"The jump in the UK manufacturing PMI in March largely reflects producers rushing to complete work before the Brexit deadline, rather than a strengthening of underlying demand," said Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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Mr Cowen then makes a few points before closing: We do in fact need a good aggregate demand-based macroeconomics; the topic is far too important to allow it to become so politicized.
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Claus Vistesen, chief Eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said PMI data tends to lead industrial production data, and that plotting out upturns in PMI is consistently associated with upturns in industrial production growth.
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"We assume the plunge in the stock market in the first six weeks of this year persuaded some potential homebuyers to reconsider, at least temporarily," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"We remain of the view that the data will in due course force the Fed to raise rates faster than they or the markets expect," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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There was so much wrong with Mitt Romney's Trump-is-a-disaster-whom-I-will-support-in-the-general speech that it may seem odd to call him out for bad international macroeconomics.
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Case growth in other major European countries is faster than in Italy, at 25% across Germany, France, Spain, Switzerland, Austria, the Netherlands and Belgium on Thursday, according to data compiled by Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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A few years ago, Christina Romer, who served as the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers under President Obama, and her husband David co-wrote my favorite paper about macroeconomics.
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During the 1970s almost the whole macroeconomics profession was persuaded by the experience of stagflation that Milton Friedman (and Edmund Phelps) were right: there is no long run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.
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Pantheon Macroeconomics, a US economic-research consultancy, has said the number of deaths is doubling roughly every 2 1/2 days and by the end of next week could reach 1,000 a day.
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December has usually been a strong month for Boeing, with average sales of 234 airplanes over the past five years, Ian Shepherdson, chief United States economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, noted in a newsletter.
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Should the payroll weakness continue, it would be "consistent with payroll growth of just [50,000] or so in a couple months time," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note.
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Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a research note on Monday, titled "The Trade War Is Hurting," that he expected employment growth to slow further in the coming months.
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"Uncertainty about Brexit has greatly dampened house prices, though a sustained period of falling prices likely doesn't lie ahead, provided a no-deal Brexit is avoided," economist Samuel Tombs from Pantheon Macroeconomics said.
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But Samuel Tombs, an economist with consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics, agreed the fall in September probably reflected warm weather during the month, which hit sales of winter clothing, rather than a more fundamental change.
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Uniquely in the social sciences and humanities, macroeconomics was developed with a specific, real-world purpose, and a negative purpose to boot: to stop anything like the Great Depression from ever happening again.
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Samuel Tombs, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said he believed the survey overstated growth for the economy as a whole, as it did not include retailers likely to be hit hardest by rising prices.
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In a lecture to the American Economic Association in 2003, Robert Lucas argued that macroeconomics had succeeded in so far as the "central problem of depression prevention has been solved, for all practical purposes".
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The world of macroeconomics woke up in 2015 after a landmark paper by Jason Furman and Peter Orszag on the link between companies and inequality, and there has been a surge of studies since.
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But Innes added macroeconomics fears will continue unless the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) "reassures markets the viability of their supply cuts and even impose deeper ones as some members have suggested".
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"UK manufacturing is benefiting from both continued brisk growth in domestic demand as well as improving global demand, but this momentum likely will peter out in 2017," said Samuel Tombs, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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Additional data due out next week on trade of both goods and services is expected to show a 10-year high in the overall trade deficit, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"The [eurozone] economy should be about to turn a corner, but the coronavirus now means that [the first quarter] could well be a write-off," said Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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Completing the first phase of the China trade deal "in theory ought to boost the manufacturing sector in the short term," Pantheon Macroeconomics chief U.S. economist Ian Shepherdson said in a note to clients.
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"We are about to begin of one of the most interesting phases for the ECB in a long time," Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNBC in a telephone interview.
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When he was appointed to the Fed's Board of Governors in 2012, "he basically did not know much about macroeconomics or monetary policy," according to Seth Carpenter, who overlapped with Powell on the board.
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"One bad month is not a trend, but the forward-looking surveys signal no relief over the next couple of months, at least," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note.
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But the MMT people think they have an argument with conventional Keynesians like me, and as long as they're out there claiming that standard macroeconomics is all wrong, I guess we need to respond.
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Her intelligence carries these loony metaphors to astonishingly believable conclusions, the way a brilliant professor might be able to explain the entirety of macroeconomics with a couple of toothpicks and a bag of skittles.
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Under standard macroeconomics, ensuring that the economy is at full employment and that prices are stable are the responsibilities of the monetary policy — the Federal Reserve — which can achieve both goals by manipulating interest rates.
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"Switzerland's economy is still lagging behind neighbouring countries, especially Germany, and you have to acknowledge that the growth is still being dampened by the strong franc," said Alexander Koch, head of macroeconomics at Bank Raiffeisen.
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SAN FRANCISCO - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy at dinner before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference - 0130 GMT.
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"The services PMI remains consistent with sub-par growth, despite its modest improvement in July, suggesting that the economy still isn't strong enough to warrant higher interest rates," said Samuel Tombs, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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The company, which has been growing like gangbusters (because big and small investors freaked out by macroeconomics and wobbly stock markets are parking their cash in real estate) didn't need to take the additional funding.
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Most macro hedge fund managers, who can take long or short positions on a range of assets based on macroeconomics, do not think the risk/reward ratio of shorting sterling is skewed in their favour.
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Turmoil in emerging markets and tough losses for EU banks U.S. banks have a limited presence in Turkey with just $38 billion in total claims on the country, according to an analysis from Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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But Pantheon Macroeconomics' Samuel Tombs — a contrarian who correctly predicted that Theresa May would lose seats in the 2017 election when most people thought she would gain them — believes the odds are still against Johnson.
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Adjusted for the impact of gas prices, which dipped last month, the selling price measure rose to the highest level since November 2006, according to a report by Ian Shepherd, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"On the occasions when the Bank has tried to signal quite clearly that they're making just a one-off hike, households haven't listened to the nuanced guidance," Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said.
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Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the slowdown was not enough to warrant an interest rate cut by the Bank of England, something investors have increasingly put their money on in recent weeks.
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In other words, it should be possible to be conservative on macroeconomics, liberal on immigration policy, traditionalist on moral and civic matters, Swedish on welfare state policies, and Reaganesque on America's role in the world.
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"This is a full-blown crisis response operation, intended to make it abundantly clear that the Fed will not allow liquidity to dry up," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note.
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"They should be doing much more than they are thinking about and doing it much quicker, at least $2 trillion with the promise of more to come," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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In the new book Law and Macroeconomics: Legal Remedies to Recessions, Yale economist and law professor Yair Listokin suggests having utility agencies purposefully hold down rates for gas, electricity, and other basic costs during recessions.
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Over the past few decades those who follow international macroeconomics have grown more or less accustomed to "sudden stop" crises in which investors abruptly turn on a country they've loved not wisely but too well.
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But it is new data of out China this morning that ought to truly terrify governments: Retail sales there have declined by 20.5% this year, according to a note from Pantheon Macroeconomics published this morning.
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In the United States, consumer spending accounts for nearly 70 percent of G.D.P. And recent surveys and other data show that people are bullish about the economy's trajectory, according to Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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UBS fourth-quarter net profit fell from the equivalent period in 2015 but still surpassed analyst expectations with the Swiss bank on Friday blaming macroeconomics and geopolitics for negatively impacting client sentiment and trading volumes.
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"It is clear now that the UK has shifted into a slower growth mode due to a combination of ongoing domestic political uncertainty and global economic headwinds," said Kay Neufeld, head of macroeconomics at Cebr.
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It's quite possible, however, that almost all of that cash could disappear in just a few years, depending on macroeconomics, oil prices and how much longer the kingdom stays embroiled in the very expensive Yemen.
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"Halifax's data is very noisy, so we doubt September's data signal that the (Bank of England's) increase in Bank Rate in August has pushed the housing market over the edge," Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics said.
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"The increase in the pace of payroll growth visible in the previous data for 2018, which most analysts ascribed to the tax cuts, has disappeared," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note.
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"The Fed should only want to be restrictive when it is seeking a disinflationary slowing of the economy," said Paul McCulley, a former Pimco executive and now senior fellow in financial macroeconomics at Cornell Law School.
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"In our view, (mortgage) applications have risen because people are rushing to lock in rates, fearing further increase," economist Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics wrote in a note to clients following the new home sales data.
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"The Halifax index is by far the most volatile measure of house prices ... so it would be a mistake to sound the alarm over April's huge fall in prices," Samuel Tombs, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said.
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"The downturn in the construction sector continued to ease in October, but it would be premature to conclude that the sector is back on a recovery path," said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"Car sales remain well below last year's levels, as the inflation-driven squeeze on real incomes makes households reluctant to make major financial commitments," Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in an email.
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I know, we're supposed to see her as coldly ambitious and calculating, and on some issues — like macroeconomics — she does sound a bit bloodless, even when she clearly understands the subject and is talking good sense.
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"The euro zone manufacturing sector is in fine form, and likely continued to provide firm support for GDP growth in the third quarter," Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a statement.
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"This is an all-out effort to ensure that the business sector can continue to exist even as economic activity temporarily collapses," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a Monday note to clients.
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"December's plunge in retail sales confirms that November's surge merely reflected people bringing forward Christmas present shopping to take advantage of Black Friday discounts," Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in an email.
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"All of this moderation is due to China, which has used capital controls to clamp down on outward investment with some degree of success," said Scott Farnham, IIF's senior research analyst, global macroeconomics, in the report.
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"Events have overtaken this survey, which likely will drop sharply next month, unless the stock market stages a remarkable recovery over the next couple of weeks," said Ian Shepherdson, founder and chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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What happens when a nation stops growing foodIn Macroeconomics 101 classes everyone learns about the collapse of the Zimbabwe economy in the late 1990s and mid 2000s, when Robert Mugabe's regime printed ever-more Zimbabwean dollars.
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"It appears that firms have responded immediately, and positively, to the news that the Phase One trade deal would prevent the imposition of further tariffs on consumer goods," wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"The moderation in price growth primarily reflects the squeeze on real wages and the slowdown in the pace that mortgage rates are falling," Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a research note.
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Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said Johnson's expensive election pledges, including a social security contributions cut and 100 billion pounds more public investment by the mid-2020s, mean Sunak only has room to tinker.
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"The manufacturing sector, however, should be doing even better, given sterling's huge depreciation and the emergence of a strong recovery in the euro zone," Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics said in an email.
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On the other hand, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, believes the combination of the shutdown and the tendency of the first quarter to be statistically weaker than the other three means growth could turn negative.
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The new fund, Academia Capital, will focus on commodities, currencies, interest rates, and equities and seek to leverage differentiated insight in commodities, China and emerging markets, and U.S. monetary policy/macroeconomics, Szpakowski said in an emailed statement.
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Samuel Tombs, an economist with consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics, said he was placing more weight on CBI's sales-for-the-time-of-year balance which was a better signal for official retail sales data than the headline balance.
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"The long-term upswing of the German economy has come to an end," Oliver Holtemöller, head of the Department of Macroeconomics and vice president of the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), which coordinated this spring's report.
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A paper published by the Center for Applied Macroeconomics and Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) showed that the worst-case combination of simultaneous international and domestic shocks could see Brazil's gross domestic product shrink by 303% this year.
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"The toxic mix of rising interest rates, falling savings, low or falling incomes and high levels of corporate debt is a train crash waiting to happen," said Ann Pettifor, director at Policy Research in Macroeconomics in London.
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Thousands of residents also will replace lost or damaged vehicles, though that will likely fall far short of the more than 500,000 cars and trucks replaced after Hurricane Harvey, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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Barry Knapp, managing partner at Ironsides Macroeconomics, said Friday the escalation of the trade wars has made him more risk adverse, and he would lighten up holdings in the sectors he had favored—industrials, technology and transportation stocks.
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FRIDAY, MARCH 22 ** SAN FRANCISCO - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy at dinner before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference - 0130 GMT.
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SATURDAY, MARCH 23 SAN FRANCISCO - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy at dinner before the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference - 0130 GMT.
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Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the economy would suffer if tensions between London and Brussels rise later this year when a deal for Britain's future relationship with the EU is due to be hammered out.
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Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank, said that the survey pointed to a slowdown in growth momentum while Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the results, in two words, were "nicht gut" (not good).
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Archer said the strength in September's CBI data partly reflected a snap back from weakness in August, and Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics said there was limited read-across to the official data that feeds into GDP calculations.
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"This is a full-blown crisis response operation, intended to make it abundantly clear that the Fed will not allow liquidity to dry up," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a Thursday note to clients.
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Data compiled by economic research consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics showed the dramatic increase in new cases recorded in recent days outside of China, where the outbreak began, and European countries outside Italy, currently the worst-infected country outside China.
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"The [eurozone] economy should be about to turn a corner, but the coronavirus now means that [the first quarter] could well be a write-off," Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a research note.
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For about $10 or more a month, subscribers can get live market and economic analysis in their Twitter feeds from Bespoke, Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO and CNBC contributor Josh Brown, T20113Live's Scott Redler or macroeconomics blogger Mark Dow.
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Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said Hammond would probably want to keep some room for a loosening of the purse strings once Britain actually leaves the EU which will probably be shortly before the next election.
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"Growth in the manufacturing sector is moderating, now that the recovery in the euro zone has started to lose a little pace and more than 18 months have elapsed since sterling's huge depreciation," Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Samuel Tombs said.
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"We feel ultimately markets will exert pressure back on them (Italy) again as spreads widen and at some point refunding costs become much more expensive," said Guy Miller, chief market strategist and head of macroeconomics at Zurich Insurance Group.
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Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the resilience of the data — combined with wages that are growing at their fastest pace in a decade — would put renewed pressure on the BoE to raise interest rates this year.
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"The strength of retail sales in the autumn - which prevented GDP growth from slowing after the referendum - appears to have reflected consumers bringing forward expenditure from 2017, due to anticipated price rises," said economist Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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Samuel Tombs, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said a fall in mortgage rates in late 2016 had not boosted activity as much as expected, and saw further headwinds for home-buyers now lenders' funding costs were starting to rise again.
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I started watching this show in high school, on a recommendation from a classmate in my accelerated micro and macroeconomics course — one of the most challenging classes I've ever taken, because our learning was entirely up to self-study.
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Waller has worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis since 2009, and previously was a chair of economics at the University of Notre Dame and a chair in macroeconomics and monetary theory at the University of Kentucky.
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Freya Beamish of Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy, points to the purchasing managers' index and machine orders, both indicators of manufacturing activity, as well as the Tankan survey, a measure of business sentiment, and data on housing and retail sales.
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"The pullback in the services PMI in May from April's four-month high is a setback to widespread hopes that the economy's slowdown in the first quarter will be fleeting," said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the resilience of the data -- combined with wages that are growing at their fastest pace in a decade -- would put renewed pressure on the BoE to raise interest rates this year.
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"In the grand scheme of things, this report merely shows that euro zone inflation pressures returned to 'trend' in May following an unsustainable jump in April," Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in an email.
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Back in 2017, Pantheon Macroeconomics analyst Samuel Tombs predicted that former Prime Minister Theresa May would lose seats in the UK general election that year, based on how gloomy consumers said they were in the GfK consumer confidence poll.
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Dan Alpert is an adjunct professor at Cornell Law School, a senior fellow in macroeconomics and finance at the school's Jack C. Clarke Business Law Institute, and founding managing partner of the New York investment bank Westwood Capital LLC.
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His big moment in macroeconomics was his famous 22019-9-9 plan, which would have abolished all taxes in favor of a 9-percent personal income tax, a 9-percent federal sales tax and a 9-percent corporate tax.
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"Both the sentiment of the tweets — the president called himself 'Tariff Man' — and the profound lack of understanding of economics they demonstrated were deeply alarming," Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note to clients.
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Daniel Alpert is a senior fellow in financial macroeconomics and an adjunct professor of law of Cornell Law School, a fellow at the Century Foundation, and founding Managing Partner of the New York-based investment bank, Westwood Capital, LLC.
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Let me talk about two fields I know reasonably well: macroeconomics, which I think I know pretty well, and finance, where I am much less well-informed in general but am pretty familiar with at least some international areas.
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Their expected agenda could be the beginning of the end for de facto pot prohibition around the world, and it could bring a subsequent reorganization of the macroeconomics of marijuana—a welcome change that would have wide-reaching effects.
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"No additional details on reinvestment is mentioned in the statement accompanying the rate decision, though this will be a topic of discussion on the press conference," Claus Vistesen, European economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics said in an email to CNBC Thursday.
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"Last year, cable fell a long way below the level implied by its formerly close relationship with expectations for the differential between official interest rates in the UK and U.S. over the next two years," said Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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Secondly, while macroeconomics didn't forecast the financial crisis or the great recession, there's been, I think, a very active response to it in terms of new work trying to understand what happened, trying to think about implications for the future.
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Meanwhile, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish said Chinese growth for the first quarter could fall to "less than 2%" year-on-year as a consequence of the shutdowns being enforced to curb the spread of the new coronavirus.
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"Businesses are generally prepared to not have everything go their way, but they have a much harder time when they don't know what's going to happen or what to expect," said Greg Daco, head of U.S. macroeconomics at Oxford Economics.
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"The adverse consequences of the Brexit vote will become increasingly clear as inflation shoots up and firms postpone investment over the coming quarters," said Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics, who correctly predicted the quarterly growth rate in the Reuters poll.
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"Private consumption likely will be the main driver of the economic cycle, once again, consistent with better domestic fundamentals, including low inflation, low interest rates and a resilient credit market," said Andres Abadia, an economist at Phanteon Macroeconomics in London.
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There was a time not too long ago when it was near impossible to walk from my college dorm to my macroeconomics class without having to dodge scores of canvassers for Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain and Mitt Romney.
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The use of the term "policy trilemma", as applied to international macroeconomics, was coined in a paper published in 1997 by Mr Obstfeld, who is now chief economist of the IMF, and Alan Taylor, now of the University of California, Davis.
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But Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said mortgage lending rates appeared to have hit a floor and limits on the size of loans compared to incomes were also likely to weigh on lending, cooling the momentum in house prices.
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"We're pretty sure that Jay Powell does not want to go down in history as the Fed Chair who was pushed around by an economically illiterate president," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote to clients earlier this week.
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Dan Alpert is an adjunct professor at Cornell Law School, a senior fellow in macroeconomics and finance at the school&aposs Jack C. Clarke Business Law Institute, and a founding managing partner of the New York investment bank Westwood Capital LLC.
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Brandishing his bubble chart graphics during TED (Technology, Entertainment and Design) Talks, Dr. Rosling often capsulized the macroeconomics of energy and the environment in a favorite anecdote about the day a washing machine was delivered to his family's cold-water flat.
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Dan Alpert is an adjunct professor at Cornell Law School, a senior fellow in macroeconomics and finance at the school&aposs Jack C. Clarke Business Law Institute, and founding managing partner of the New York investment bank Westwood Capital LLC.
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Earlier this week, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, was much more pessimistic than Zandi, saying the combination of the shutdown and the tendency of the first quarter to be statistically weaker than the other three means growth could turn negative.
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Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the October report showed that U.S. manufacturing is "still very strong and likely to stay that way ... Global demand is strong, the dollar is competitive, and domestic spending on capital equipment is rising rapidly."
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"The downturn in London probably isn't a sign of an impending slump elsewhere, but instead reflects the slowdown in net migration, a glut of new-build flats and valuations correcting from excessively stretched levels," said Samuel Tombs, economist at consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"With Brexit uncertainty likely to continue to weigh on business confidence and falling real wages set to worsen housing affordability, it remains hard to see the construction sector's malaise coming to an end this year," said Samuel Tombs, economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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But Hammond is still likely to have around 13 billion pounds of headroom to meet his goal of keeping borrowing in 2020/21 under a self-imposed cap of 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), said Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"Sterling is not very closely linked to interest rate expectations at the moment — it's really whether there is a soft or a hard Brexit driving sterling, and that is going to continue for a year or so," said Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"Growth in the manufacturing sector is moderating, now that the recovery in the euro zone has started to lose a little pace and more than 18 months have elapsed since sterling's huge depreciation," said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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" Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics: Mr. Shepherdson points out that the fall in the unemployment rate was because of a decline in the labor force, but "this won't last, and as household employment catches up, unemployment will fall further.
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" Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics: "The big surprise here is average hourly earnings, which managed an above-trend increase despite facing two adverse calendar effects; May had an extra working day compared to normal, and the survey was conducted very early in the month.
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"There's a very clear spike in sales in the middle of the year obviously driven by the tax cuts, and there's an equally clear reversal in the second half of the year," said Ian Shepherdson, an economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, a research firm.
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"These are the unintended consequences of the battle against the epidemic: the restrictive measures put in place to stop the virus have also restricted companies from resuming production," Tian Yun, director of the China Society of Macroeconomics Research Center, told the Global Times.
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In a note to clients on Monday, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at the research firm Pantheon Macroeconomics, warned that "virus-induced nerves will persist until non-China cases decline" and said there's still a lot of uncertainty on the impact of the coronavirus.
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More recently, economists like Emi Nakamura (the most recent Clark Medal winner) have brought it to macroeconomics, traditionally the most theoretical and least empirical branch of economics, and one whose limitations became humiliatingly well-known in the wake of the Great Recession.
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"We believe that the new president will seek to implement populist policies, due to his Peronist credentials and closeness to the Kirchners, so markets should brace for more volatility," Andres Abadia, senior international economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a research note published Monday.
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"Businesses are generally prepared to not have everything go their way, but they have a much harder time when they don't know what's going to happen or what to expect," said Greg Daco, head of U.S. macroeconomics at Oxford Economics and a NABE survey analyst.
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The collapse in gilt yields is the result of renewed safe-haven demand, the resumption of quantitative easing and the U.K. central bank's decision to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point earlier this month, according to a report by Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"On the Chinese side, Mr. Trump has burned a lot of political capital so it's hard to see how talks can resume if Mr. Trump goes ahead on the $278.70 billion," Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum.
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"Commentators and markets rightly assume that the authorities are consumed by this transition and that all other policy matters are on the back-burner or in lock-down until after the Congress," Freya Beamish, Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief Asia economist, wrote in a recent note.
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"Such rapid growth in unsecured credit is unsustainable over the medium-term, and the recent fall back in consumer confidence suggests that households will borrow more cautiously in 673, subduing growth in consumption," Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Samuel Tombs said in a note to clients.
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Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, explained that recessions in developed economies were caused by the unwinding of imbalances in the private sector — for instance, the level of debt held by households ahead of the financial crisis — set off by central bank tightening.
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So this seems like a good time for a refresher on some basic macroeconomics – and the reasons why the expansion of 2017, which continued the long expansion that began in 2010, is in no sense a justification for wildly optimistic growth projections looking forward.
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He really, really doesn't like the formalization of economies of scale and imperfect competition in trade that went along with the rise of the "new trade theory", and compares it to the excessive faith in formalism that I myself have condemned in much of macroeconomics.
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In fact, in an important sense the past decade has been a huge validation for textbook macroeconomics; meanwhile, the exaltation of micro as the only "real" economics both gives microeconomics too much credit and is largely responsible for the ways macroeconomic theory has gone wrong.
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"For the Fed, the underlying momentum is more important in terms of policy decisions, and that looks to be strong, supported by a tightening labor market, rising incomes and high consumer confidence," said Gregory Daco, head of U.S. macroeconomics at Oxford Economics in New York.
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"A core view of many Trump advisers is that the extended period of emergency policy settings has promoted a bubble in the stock market, depressed the incomes of savers, scared the public and encouraged capital misallocation," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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"I'm sure there are good reasons to be lending to older people given that people are going to be working later in their life … (but) … Banks are taking increasing risks now with their lending," Samuel Tombs, chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNBC on Friday.
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Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said positive recent indicators like retail sales and buoyant home prices in April strengthened the hand of Fed hawks, although they could wait, because markets remained anxious before Britain's June 23 referendum on whether to leave the European Union.
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"If we are right about August, and the hourly earnings number undershoots consensus, as we expect —thanks to a long-standing and persistent calendar quirk — the chances of a September rate hike will recede," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note Wednesday.
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Yellen is a world-renowned former chaired professor of macroeconomics at Berkeley, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, former vice chair of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), and current chair of the Federal Reserve Board.
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The greatest risk the economy faces with a Fed chair that has not been steeped their whole professional life in macroeconomics can be conveyed by the following question: Will Powell be able to know when to take the appropriate policy risks for the sake of the economy?
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A survey by the Centre for Macroeconomics and the Centre for Economic Policy Research released on Tuesday found a majority of leading European economists were in favour of greater regulatory oversight of the market, primarily because of concerns that cryptocurrencies facilitate tax evasion and other criminal activity.
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"The Fed has acted now to try to get ahead of what likely will be terrible news on the spread of the virus, both inside and outside the U.S., over the next couple of weeks," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note.
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Maybe. Probably. From the mid-1970s until just the other day, the overwhelming view in macroeconomics was that there is no long-run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation, that any attempt to hold unemployment below some level determined by structural factors would lead to ever-accelerating inflation.
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"The survey captures only the start of the lockdown which we expect soon to cover almost the whole country, and a 12.6-point decline in the index is nothing like enough to reflect the hit," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a Tuesday note.
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And though the five-page final-year macroeconomics exam that was set in 21947 asked about some contemporary policy conundrums, like which features of the euro zone may have contributed to its sovereign debt crisis, most of the paper sought to test students' knowledge of tricky, algebra-heavy models.
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On top of this, flows of people moving from one job to another, which fell sharply during the recession as workers clung on to whatever position they could find, have picked up and are now back at pre-recession levels, says Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy.
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But macroeconomics is also inherently political, and the practitioners who seek to "politicise" their ideas and make them a political reality play as vital a role in the advancement of the field as the scrupulously apolitical academics who never write a public word outside a peer-reviewed journal.
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But a broader survey of 64 European academics by the Center for Macroeconomics and the Center for Economic Policy Research showed 78 percent disagreeing or strongly disagreeing with the German view, offering a snapshot of a long-running policy divide between Berlin and much of the rest of Europe.
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Nonetheless, Merkel's stance towards Trump could also be influenced by her governing partners, according to Ricardo Garcia, head of European Macroeconomics at UBS, with particular mention going to the Greens who, unsurprisingly, would not be impressed with any U.S. withdrawal from an international agreement to limit global warming.
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"We take the view that compulsory third-party liability insurance works well in protecting road users and that this will continue to be the case with ongoing technological developments, such as connected and autonomous vehicles," said Nicolas Jeanmart, head of personal insurance, general insurance and macroeconomics at Insurance Europe.
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In macroeconomics, what began in the 60s and 70s as a usefully challenging critique of Keynesian views went all wrong in the 80s, because the anti-Keynesians refused to reconsider their views when their own models failed the reality test while Keynesian models, with some modification, performed pretty well.
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"Following the Brexit vote, we expect a stronger U.S. dollar and heightened financial market strains will weigh on domestic activity, but lower interest rates should provide some offset so that the net impact is a marginal negative," said Gregory Daco, head of U.S. macroeconomics at Oxford Economics in New York.
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Gates believes in "the philosophy that Warren Buffett has put forth that you can find great companies and invest in them, then the macroeconomics can go up and down and the basic value of what you are holding onto there will be maintained throughout that," the Microsoft co-founder says.
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Roong Mallikamas, head of the macroeconomics and monetary policy department at the Bank of Thailand, said Zika would not have a big impact on tourism because it was not as serious as other diseases previously seen in the region, such as a deadly 2003 outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).
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Furthermore, many businesses are holding back on investment decisions as they await clarity on Britain's future relationship with the EU. Samuel Tombs, an economist with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the Bank of England's first interest rate hike in more than a decade, made in November, was also weighing on the market.
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"Whatever the economic merits or demerits of cutting interest rates at this juncture, the lack of clear direction is more likely to add to economic uncertainty and therefore be detrimental to demand and the economy," said Angus Armstrong, the director of macroeconomics at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
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"[T]he sharp increase in the number of working days lost to strikes over pay and benefits over the past year suggests that employees increasingly recognize that the balance of power has shifted in their favor," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for the research firm Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote Friday in an analysis.
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Macroeconomics is better than you think, microeconomics worse, and data are limited Opinion Columnist In a couple of days I'm giving a luncheon talk to the New York chapter of the National Association of Business Economists, and the title of this essay was the title I provided for the talk.
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Among macroeconomists, the self-criticism seems to me to be mainly too narrow: people berate themselves for, say, not giving financial markets a bigger role in their models, but few have done what they should, which is to question the whole direction macroeconomics has gone these past four decades or so.
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While her friends were rallying to get her elected against the odds, mine were proving exceedingly useless in the struggle to somehow coerce my high school crush into asking me to prom in the few moments we shared in between second period United States history and third period A.P. macroeconomics.
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AND, YOU KNOW, YOU HAVE SEEN THAT IN THE YEARS WHEN PEOPLE COME ON AND TRY AND PREDICT WHAT THE ECONOMY IS GOING TO DO. IT'S – CHARLIE AND I HAVE NEVER MADE A MARKETABLE SECURITY DECISION OR THE PURCHASE OF AN ENTIRE BUSINESS WHERE WE'VE TALKED AT ALL ABOUT MACROECONOMICS.
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"It is tricky to know for sure how many jobs will move or whether it is just lenders putting political pressure on the government but I do expect banks to downsize as a result of (quitting London)," Claus Vistesen, chief Eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics told CNBC, in a phone interview on Wednesday.
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Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the SRM to arrive at the final Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR by applying its QO, relative to rated peers, as follows: - Macroeconomics: -220 notch to reflect South Africa's weaker potential growth prospects relative to the 'BBB' median, with important repercussions for public finances.
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"My guess is that the Greek government got a stern warning from the ECB(European Central Bank)/Bank of Greece that a further impasse would have meant a severe hit to the economy via capital outflows," Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, told CNBC via email about Friday's agreement.
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Prices paid by construction firms for raw materials shot up at the fastest pace in just over five years, fuelled by the pound's plunge since the vote to leave the EU. "Demand likely will crumble when construction companies pass on these higher costs to customers," said Samuel Tombs, economist at consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official arbiter of U.S. business cycles, since 1854 the U.S. economy has experienced 34 cycles in all, and since the modern era of macroeconomics began post World War II, it has experienced 12 cycles in total (including the present one in both instances).
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Not all of that jump was necessarily tied to the tariffs, but a lot of it probably was — Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics estimates that soybeans alone accounted for about half of the surge in exports, and that was almost certainly because of buyers trying to get out in front of the tariffs.
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That's not exactly a problem with macroeconomics; to some extent it's a problem with financial economics, but mainly I think it reflected the general unwillingness of human beings (a category that includes many though not necessarily all economists) to believe that so many people can be so wrong about something so big.
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Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the SRM to arrive at the final Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR by applying its QO, relative to rated peers, as follows: - Macroeconomics: -1 notch to reflect South Africa's weaker potential growth prospects relative to the 'BBB' median, with important repercussions for public finances.
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"[T]he sharp increase in the number of working days lost to strikes over pay and benefits over the past year suggests that employees increasingly recognize that the balance of power has shifted in their favor," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for the research firm Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote last month in an analysis.
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Samuel Tombs, the chief U.K. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that his base case scenario remained that MPs would agree on a limited extension of around three months and then will force the prime minister to engage in cross-party talks, leading to an agreement for a Norway-style soft Brexit in the second quarter.
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The advisers For Celgene: JPMorgan and the law firms Proskauer Rose and Hogan Lovells For Juno: Morgan Stanley and the law firm Skadden — Chad Bray From a recent note by analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics: We would be astonished if Congress could not cobble together a majority of the sane in order to prevent a default.
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The Maricá experiment is different: Any price effect will be localized to the city, because it's the only place where mumbucas are usable, and being able to compare mumbucas' trajectory to that of local currencies (which are quite common in Brazil) in other neighboring cities gives the evaluation an uncommon ability to draw conclusions on macroeconomics.
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Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the SRM to arrive at the final the Long-Term Foreign Currency IDR by applying its QO, relative to rated peers, as follows: -Macroeconomics: -1 notch, to reflect Fitch's view that sustained and higher potential growth is limited by lack of progress on reforms to address the economy's structural bottlenecks.
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Macroeconomics consultancy Capital Economics hasn't issued its own explicit economic forecasts for Belgium following the attacks, but one of senior European economist, Jennifer McKeown, said the tragedy only adds to a host of uncertainties, including the possibility of a British exit from the European Union, the migrant crisis, and political crises across the bloc in countries including Spain.
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Read more: Argentina just brought in currency controls to contain the peso after it lost more than a quarter of its value in a month"Things in Argentina are likely will get worse, even with IMF support, and the country will struggle to access to international markets," said Andres Abadia, a senior international economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
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Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the SRM to arrive at the final LT FC IDR by applying its QO, relative to rated peers, as follows: --Macroeconomics: +13 notch, to reflect macroeconomic policy consistency and credibility that have underpinned Colombia's capacity to adjust to both domestic and external shocks while maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability.
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His academic and advisory experience in global macroeconomics was extensive, with a doctorate at Harvard, teaching posts at New York's Columbia University then Trinity College, Dublin (which kindly granted him leave to take up the role of governor), and years of consultative work — with the Asian Development Bank, OECD, the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, among others.
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"Leading indicators suggest that domestic demand will continue to perform strongly in the second half of the year, but we think the quarter-on-quarter run-rate in headline GDP (gross domestic product) growth will slow to 0.4 percent-to-0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter," Claus Vistesen, chief euro zone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in an email.
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The most recent official data showed house price inflation of 1.4% in the year to March, and Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Samuel Tombs said he expected price growth to remain around this level for the rest of this year.. "Households' real incomes still are rising at a solid rate, while the recent decline in interest rate expectations should reduce mortgage rates soon," he said.
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The most recent official data showed house price inflation of 1.4% in the year to March, and Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Samuel Tombs said he expected price growth to remain around this level for the rest of this year.. "Households' real incomes still are rising at a solid rate, while the recent decline in interest rate expectations should reduce mortgage rates soon," he said.
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New car registrations in the UK have just seen four straight months of declines, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics: And while UK consumer car finance debt is still growing, its growth has slowed recently, according to stats compiled by the Bank of England: Of course, it is still early days in terms of the use of apps like Uber and Lyft.
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What they're saying: Jared Bernstein, who served as chief economist under Vice President Joe Biden: Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics: Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global: Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, tweeted, in part that it was "not correct" that markets saw Powell's comments has a signal that the Fed will no longer hike interest rates after December.
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"Labor demand has been strong for a very long time now, and it's hard to imagine that millions of people outside the labor force have only just become aware that their chances of finding a job have been transformed since the first dark years after the crash," wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of the analyst firm Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note to clients this week.
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Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the SRM to arrive at the final LT FC IDR by applying its QO, relative to rated peers, as follows: -Macroeconomics: -13 notch, to reflect Fitch's view that the SRM is currently benefitting from a cyclical economic upswing, and that sustained and higher potential growth is limited by Bulgaria's structural economic competitiveness challenges, particularly labour market rigidities and adverse demographic trends.
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Last month, the Group—which includes economist Ann Pettifor, a government advisor and director of Policy Research in Macroeconomics; The Guardian's economics editor Larry Elliott; Green Party MP Caroline Lucas, also Vice Chair of the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas; and Jeremy Leggett, chairman of British solar energy firm Solarcentury—issued a new policy brief warning of the risk of another financial crash due to a rising debt-bubble.
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GIOVANNI DOSIScuola Superiore Sant' Anna in Pisa CONSTANCE HELFATDartmouth College FRANCO MALERBABocconi University JOEL MOKYRNorthwestern University RICHARD NELSONColumbia University ANDREAS PYKAUniversity of Hohenheim PIER PAOLO SAVIOTTIUtrecht University F. M. SCHERERKennedy School, Harvard University SIDNEY WINTERWharton School, University of Pennsylvania * You are right that "Macroeconomics must get to grips with its epistemological woes if it hopes to maintain its influence and limit the damage done by the next crisis" (Free exchange, April 21st).
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