The people who have put hundreds of hours into the game know all of the statistical likelihoods with the weapon.
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Trump is currently way ahead in those states, and has strong likelihoods of winning there, according to an analysis by FiveThirtyEight.
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The increased risk seen among mothers of preemies translates to higher likelihoods of dying from one of those events, the researchers calculate.
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"Even though the percentages and the likelihoods are incredibly low, the outcome is awful," said Dr. Tim F. Jones, epidemiologist for the State of Tennessee.
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One essential lesson of the Trump era is that likelihoods are not enough; if you want to end the Trump era only one thing will suffice.
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In other words, two students—one black and one white—with the same math and reading achievement could have very different likelihoods of being identified as gifted.
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But Terplan says there are actually three populations of women whose infants might develop NAS, and these moms and their babies have different risks and likelihoods for healthy outcomes.
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So, where six-figure salaries and (comparatively) low likelihoods of loan default are fairly common for MBAs, the same cannot be said for postgraduates with master's degrees in psychology (no disrespect).
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A particle's exact position or state is never certain until a measurement is made; there are only higher or lower likelihoods of a given outcome, and the measurement changes the situation irrevocably.
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Initially this process is probabilistic, meaning that what text is labeled as important data is a matter of confidence and likelihoods, but once that data is extracted, it's effectively treated as a certainty.
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In the early years of his illness, the mild displeasure syndrome phase, my patient and I had discussed likelihoods of progression and available drugs as if they were abstract concepts for a future, sicker him.
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You just have to understand what you're up against and find ways to measure the probability that a vulnerability is going to lead to an issue on your systems, while defending against the highest probability likelihoods.
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The Odderon helped explain the mysterious differences in the likelihoods that a proton would have a direction-changing interaction with another proton, versus that a proton would have a one of those interactions with an antiproton.
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If you really want to be concerned about impacts, a better place to look would be the Torino or Palermo scales, which measure likelihoods that asteroids will hit and how much energy they have—their potential to do damage.
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But the key is finding a sort of quantum heads-and-tails system where the two states can form a superposition (the black box), entangle (tying the coins together), and interfere (the likelihoods changing when coins are combined in the box).
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Were we to take the sum total of career decisions ever considered by a footballer and break each of them with the same urgency as a celebrity death or natural disaster, we would be swamped by the sheer weight of the ensuing content, drowned in a deluge of uncertain likelihoods.
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Research also demonstrates that early learning can result in higher grades in math and reading, improved test scores for participants starting in preschool and continuing through age 21, and increased likelihoods that young people will remain in school and enroll in college, according to the National Institutes of Health (NIH).
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To wit, here are a few things that can result from bad sleeping habits: • Weight gain • Increased rates of workplace accidents • Driving abilities on par with those of drunken drivers • Problems staying focused • Higher likelihoods of catching a cold So before you doze off for another 10 minutes before getting ready for work — I assume you're reading this in bed as you put off jumping in the shower — here are few things that can help you wake up more refreshed and better prepared to tackle your day.
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Additionally, simulation-based methods are often used to validate inference results, providing test data where the correct answer is known ahead of time. Because computing likelihoods for genealogical data under complex simulation models has proven difficult, an alternative statistical approach called Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is becoming popular in fitting these simulation models to patterns of genetic variation, following successful application of this approach to bacterial diseases. This is because ABC makes use of easily computable summary statistics to approximate likelihoods, rather than the likelihoods themselves.
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Monotone likelihoods are used in several areas of statistical theory, including point estimation and hypothesis testing, as well as in probability models.
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This is similar to a uniform prior in Bayesian statistics, but in likelihoodist statistics this is not an improper prior because likelihoods are not integrated.
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The log semiring also arises when working with numbers that are logarithms (measured on a logarithmic scale), such as decibels (see ), log probability, or log-likelihoods.
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And it shows that the values for the prior probabilities together with the values of the likelihoods should uniquely determine the value for the expectedness of the evidence.
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In a slightly different formulation suited to the use of log-likelihoods (see Wilks' theorem), the test statistic is twice the difference in log-likelihoods and the probability distribution of the test statistic is approximately a chi-squared distribution with degrees- of-freedom (df) equal to the difference in df's between the two models (therefore, the −2 likelihood interval is the same as the 0.954 confidence interval; assuming difference in df's to be 1).
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"Posterior robustness with more than one sampling model". Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 40: 279–294. In a robust Bayes approach, a standard Bayesian analysis is applied to all possible combinations of prior distributions and likelihood functions selected from classes of priors and likelihoods considered empirically plausible by the analyst. In this approach, a class of priors and a class of likelihoods together imply a class of posteriors by pairwise combination through Bayes’ rule.
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SLIM was developed by Embrey et al. [1] for use within the US nuclear industry. By use of this method, relative success likelihoods are established for a range of tasks, and then calibrated using a logarithmic transformation.
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In statistics, the likelihood-ratio test assesses the goodness of fit of two competing statistical models based on the ratio of their likelihoods, specifically one found by maximization over the entire parameter space and another found after imposing some constraint. If the constraint (i.e., the null hypothesis) is supported by the observed data, the two likelihoods should not differ by more than sampling error. Thus the likelihood-ratio test tests whether this ratio is significantly different from one, or equivalently whether its natural logarithm is significantly different from zero.
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The key innovation of turbo codes is how they use the likelihood data to reconcile differences between the two decoders. Each of the two convolutional decoders generates a hypothesis (with derived likelihoods) for the pattern of m bits in the payload sub-block. The hypothesis bit-patterns are compared, and if they differ, the decoders exchange the derived likelihoods they have for each bit in the hypotheses. Each decoder incorporates the derived likelihood estimates from the other decoder to generate a new hypothesis for the bits in the payload.
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This is equivalent to measuring the area between the two distribution curves because the area of each segment is the absolute difference between the two curves' likelihoods at that point. When summed together for all segments, it provides the same measure as L1-distance.
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Flies who emerged from underground were on average larger, heavier, and less likely to have non-functional or malformed wings than flies who emerged at ground level. P. tibialis larvae have different likelihoods of inducing self- burial behavior depending on the species of the Hymenopteran host.
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The study explains that the estimates of conditional probabilities are conservative because of noise in the retrieval of information from memory, whereas noise is defined as the mixing of evidence. Memories of high likelihoods are mixed with evidence of low likelihood and the resulting estimate is lower than it should be. The retrieval of memories of lower likelihoods are higher than they should be, and the result is conservatism (low is not low enough, and high is not high enough, the result is not extreme enough, which is conservative). In an incentivized experimental study, it has been shown that the conservatism bias decreased in those with greater cognitive ability, though it did not disappear.
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Inferences that involve reasoning near the boundaries of a vague concept are often uncertain. 8\. Finding expected utility. This is the problem of choosing between actions whose consequences are uncertain. In such a case, a choice may be made based on the likelihoods of the various outcomes with their desirability. 9\.
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Instead of the original black line, your new distribution would look more like the blue line. alt=alt text In order to sample X in a manner which will retain the distribution f(x), some sampling technique must be used which takes into account the varied likelihoods for each range of f(x).
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It can hybridize with other darter species, though a hybridization study with it and the redband darter (E. luteovinctum) showed variation in hybrid inviability. Hybrid offspring from a Christmas darter female were often severely deformed, dying before hatching. The hybrid offspring of redband darter females had much higher likelihoods of successfully hatching.
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However, the odds ratio can also be interpreted as a ratio of two likelihoods ratios, if one considers one of the events to be more easily observable than the other. See diagnostic odds ratio, where the result of a diagnostic test is more easily observable than the presence or absence of an underlying medical condition.
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The concept of function criticality was replaced with classification of failure conditions according to severity of effects (cf., Probabilistic risk assessment). Failure conditions having Catastrophic, Major, or Minor effects were to have restricted likelihoods, respectively, of Extremely Improbable (10-9 or less), Improbable (10-5 or less), or no worse than Probable (10-5).AC 25.1309-1A, pp.
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For Bayesian model, the prior and likelihood generally represent the statistics of the environment and the sensory representations. The independence of priors and likelihoods is not assured since the prior may vary with likelihood only by the representations. However, the independence has been proved by Shams with series of parameter control in multi sensory perception experiment.
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Similarly, likelihoods are often transformed to the log scale, and the corresponding log-likelihood can be interpreted as the degree to which an event supports a statistical model. The log probability is widely used in implementations of computations with probability, and is studied as a concept in its own right in some applications of information theory, such as natural language processing.
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Proofs using inductive logic, while considered mathematical in nature, seek to establish propositions with a degree of certainty, which acts in a similar manner to probability, and may be less than full certainty. Inductive logic should not be confused with mathematical induction. Bayesian analysis uses Bayes' theorem to update a person's assessment of likelihoods of hypotheses when new evidence or information is acquired.
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60.4% of rapes are found to be unacknowledged.Different situations warrant different likelihoods of acknowledged rape. A victim is much more likely to acknowledge a rape if the perpetrator was a stranger or somebody with whom they have a platonic relationship. If the perpetrator is somebody that the victim was once or currently romantically involved with, the rate of acknowledgement is lower.
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A bust of Postumus' father Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa Agrippa Postumus was born in 12 BC, seemingly three months after his father's death (mid-March 12 BC, Dio 54.28.3) and probably after 26 June.Mudd (2012) follows Gardthausen that Agrippa would have assumed the toga virilis on his 15th birthday, so they date the adoption before Agrippa's 15th birthday. But Gardthausen overlooked several likelihoods.
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Because the costs are additive, they behave like the logarithm of the probability (since log-likelihoods are additive), or equivalently, somewhat like the entropy (since entropies are additive). This makes Link Grammar compatible with machine learning techniques such as hidden Markov models and the Viterbi algorithm, because the link costs correspond to the link weights in Markov networks or Bayesian networks.
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Race and age play a factor in the increased risk. The highest ratios for males are attributed to young Caucasians. By the age of 25, their risk is more than halved; however, the risk for black gay males at that age steadily increases to 8.6 times more likely. Over a lifetime, the increased likelihoods are 5.7 times for white and 12.8 for black gay and bisexual males.
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Note that controls may likewise offer further information for comparison; maybe the control groups, who were using no treatment at all, had their own base rate success of 5/100. Controls thus indicate that 'Treatment X' makes things worse, despite that initial proud claim about 1,000 people. The normative method for integrating base rates (prior probabilities) and featural evidence (likelihoods) is given by Bayes' rule.
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When a sample has three or more contributors, it becomes extremely difficult to determine individual profiles. Fortunately, advancements in probabilistic genotyping could make this sort of determination possible in the future. Probabilistic genotyping uses complex computer software to run through thousands of mathematical computations in order to produce statistical likelihoods of individual genotypes found in a mixture. Probabilistic genotyping software that are often used in labs today include STRmix and TrueAllele.
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Dramatic, violent deaths are usually more highly publicised and therefore have a higher availability. On the other hand, common but mundane events are hard to bring to mind, so their likelihoods tend to be underestimated. These include deaths from suicides, strokes, and diabetes. This heuristic is one of the reasons why people are more easily swayed by a single, vivid story than by a large body of statistical evidence.
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In measure-theoretic probability theory, the density function is defined as the Radon–Nikodym derivative of the probability distribution relative to a common dominating measure. The likelihood function is that density interpreted as a function of the parameter (possibly a vector), rather than the possible outcomes. This provides a likelihood function for any statistical model with all distributions, whether discrete, absolutely continuous, a mixture or something else. (Likelihoods will be comparable, e.g.
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Each independent sample's maximum likelihood estimate is a separate estimate of the "true" parameter set describing the population sampled. Successive estimates from many independent samples will cluster together with the population’s "true" set of parameter values hidden somewhere in their midst. The difference in the logarithms of the maximum likelihood and adjacent parameter sets’ likelihoods may be used to draw a confidence region on a plot whose co- ordinates are the parameters θ1 ... θp.
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Two heads and one tail of the original I-Ching Divination Coins. The three-coin method came into use over a thousand years after the yarrow- stalk method. The quickest, easiest, and most popular method by far, it has largely supplanted yarrow stalks, but produces outcomes with different likelihoods. Three coins are tossed at once; each coin is given a value of 2 or 3, depending upon whether it is tails or heads, respectively.
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Decomposed granite is rock of granitic origin that has weathered to the point that it readily fractures into smaller pieces of weak rock. Further weathering produces rock that easily crumbles into mixtures of gravel- sized particles, sand, and silt-sized particles with some clay. Eventually, the gravel may break down to produce a mixture of silica sand, silt particles, and clay. Different specific granite types have differing propensities to weather, and so differing likelihoods of producing decomposed granite.
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Both models assume that multiple two-player games are played in a population of N players. The players are matched randomly with opponents, with each player having equal likelihoods of drawing any of the N−1 other players. The players start with a pure strategy, G or H, and play this strategy against their opponent. In replicator dynamics, the population game is repeated in sequential generations where subpopulations change based on the success of their chosen strategies.
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Thus, the secretary had failed the first step of interpreting the statute, that is, finding that the substance posed a risk at that level. In its reasoning, the Court noted it would be unreasonable to assume that congress intended to give the Secretary “unprecedented power over American industry.” Such a delegation of power would likely be unconstitutional. The Court also cited the legislative history of the act, which suggested that Congress meant to address major workplace hazards, not hazards with low statistical likelihoods.
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This approach has been generalized to many aspects of statistics under various frameworks. In particular, there are weighted likelihoods, weighted estimating equations, and weighted probability densities from which a majority of statistics are derived. These applications codified the theory of other statistics and estimators such as marginal structural models, the standardized mortality ratio, and the EM algorithm for coarsened or aggregate data. Inverse probability weighting is also used to account for missing data when subjects with missing data cannot be included in the primary analysis.
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Other important factors are the likelihoods that nucleases and competent cells will encounter DNA molecules, the relative inefficiencies of nucleotide uptake from the environment and from the periplasm (where one strand is degraded by competent cells), and the advantage of producing ready-to-use nucleotide monophosphates from the other strand in the cytoplasm. Another complicating factor is the self-bias of the DNA uptake systems of species in the family Pasteurellaceae and the genus Neisseria, which could reflect either selection for recombination or for mechanistically efficient uptake.
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The center hired Leonard Hearne to create a shared clinical database before the term "database" existed, and Flournoy married him in 1978. Her work in this time on the graft-versus-tumor effect become "the first major application of the proportional hazards model with time-dependent covariates". In 1982, Flournoy completed a doctorate in biomathematics at the University of Washington. Her dissertation, supervised by Lloyd Delbert Fisher, Jr., was The Failure-Censoring Bichain and the Relative Efficiency of Selected Partial Likelihoods in the Presence of Coprocesses.
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This is seen among the Tsimané, who are more likely to be depressed if they are currently in conflict with anyone, especially if that person is outside of their family. The relationship between conflict and depression is also seen through assault. This is seen primarily in the short- term, with assault often being the event with the highest likelihood of being correlated with depression after the fact. However, long-term affects are also seen, in that childhood assaults (both sexual and physical) are correlated with greater likelihoods of depression later in life.
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A profile HMM modelling a multiple sequence alignment Hidden Markov models are probabilistic models that can assign likelihoods to all possible combinations of gaps, matches, and mismatches to determine the most likely MSA or set of possible MSAs. HMMs can produce a single highest-scoring output but can also generate a family of possible alignments that can then be evaluated for biological significance. HMMs can produce both global and local alignments. Although HMM-based methods have been developed relatively recently, they offer significant improvements in computational speed, especially for sequences that contain overlapping regions.
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Climate risk refers to risk assessments based on formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and how societal constraints shape adaptation options. Common approaches to risk assessment and risk management strategies based on natural hazards have been applied to climate change impacts although there are distinct differences. Based on a climate system that is no longer staying within a stationary range of extremes, climate change impacts are anticipated to increase for the coming decades despite mitigation efforts. Ongoing changes in the climate system complicates assessing risks.
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In decision theory, a pignistic probability is a probability that a rational person will assign to an option when required to make a decision. A person may have, at one level certain beliefs or a lack of knowledge, or uncertainty, about the options and their actual likelihoods. However, when it is necessary to make a decision (such as deciding whether to place a bet), the behaviour of the rational person would suggest that the person has assigned a set of regular probabilities to the options. These are the pignistic probabilities.
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The EquiRatings Quality Index (ERQI) is "a tool used by various federations around the world to identify and then categorise horses competing with above average likelihoods of unsuccessful outcomes". Studies are conducted over four continents and on approximately 80,000 horses each week to assess the huge variety of risks posed to unique horse and rider combinations competing on different courses across the world. The EquiRatings philosophy follows a cyclical process of "Measure, Improve, Repeat", to assist individuals and teams with the process of predicting and minimising risks in horse riding.
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In accordance with the principle of univariance, the firing of the cell depends upon only the number of photons absorbed. The different responses of the three types of cone cells are determined by the likelihoods that their respective photoreceptor proteins will absorb photons of different wavelengths. So, for example, an L cone cell contains a photoreceptor protein that more readily absorbs long wavelengths of light (that is, more "red"). Light of a shorter wavelength can also produce the same response from an L cone cell, but it must be much brighter to do so.
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A frequentist approach rejects the validity of representing probabilities of hypotheses: hypotheses are true or false, not something that can be represented with a probability. Bayesian statistics actively models the likelihood of hypotheses. The p-value does not in itself allow reasoning about the probabilities of hypotheses, which requires multiple hypotheses or a range of hypotheses, with a prior distribution of likelihoods between them, in which case Bayesian statistics could be used. There, one uses a likelihood function for all possible values of the prior instead of the p-value for a single null hypothesis.
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In many cases, the likelihood is a function of more than one parameter but interest focuses on the estimation of only one, or at most a few of them, with the others being considered as nuisance parameters. Several alternative approaches have been developed to eliminate such nuisance parameters, so that a likelihood can be written as a function of only the parameter (or parameters) of interest: the main approaches are profile, conditional, and marginal likelihoods. These approaches are also useful when a high-dimensional likelihood surface needs to be reduced to one or two parameters of interest in order to allow a graph.
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The use of odds in gambling facilitates betting on events where the relative probabilities of outcomes varied. For example, on a coin toss or a match race between two evenly matched horses, it is reasonable for two people to wager level stakes. However, in more variable situations, such as a multi-runner horse race or a football match between two unequally matched sides, betting "at odds" provides a perspective on the relative likelihoods of the possible outcomes. In the modern era, most fixed odds betting takes place between a betting organisation, such as a bookmaker, and an individual, rather than between individuals.
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Peirce held that science achieves statistical probabilities, not certainties, and that spontaneity (absolute chance) is real (see Tychism on his view). Most of his statistical writings promote the frequency interpretation of probability (objective ratios of cases), and many of his writings express skepticism about (and criticize the use of) probability when such models are not based on objective randomization.Peirce condemned the use of "certain likelihoods" (The Essential Peirce, 2:108–09) even more strongly than he criticized Bayesian methods. Indeed Peirce used a bit of Bayesian inference in criticizing parapsychology (Writings of Charles S. Pierce, 6:76).
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Asian Americans generally have low rates of substance use, but contain disparities when disaggregated into ethnic groups, gender, and the type of drug used. Compared to other ethnic groups, research finds that Japanese and mixed-race Asian Americans have increased likelihoods of drug consumption while prescription drug abuse risk is high for Filipino Americans. Gender provides a variation in risk as well. Chinese and Vietnamese females, compared to their male counterparts, have higher probability of alcohol addiction Asian American college-aged women who have depression are found to have positive correlation with drug and alcohol consumption.
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The determination of ASIL is the result of hazard analysis and risk assessment. In the context of ISO 26262, a hazard is assessed based on the relative impact of hazardous effects related to a system, as adjusted for relative likelihoods of the hazard manifesting those effects. That is, each hazardous event is assessed in terms of severity of possible injuries within the context of the relative amount of time a vehicle is exposed to the possibility of the hazard happening as well as the relative likelihood that a typical driver can act to prevent the injury.
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Often, because these genes regulate the processes that prevent most damage to genes themselves, the rate of mutations increases as one gets older, because DNA damage forms a feedback loop. Mutation of tumor suppressor genes that are passed on to the next generation of not merely cells, but their offspring, can cause increased likelihoods for cancers to be inherited. Members within these families have increased incidence and decreased latency of multiple tumors. The mode of inheritance of mutant tumor suppressors is that affected member inherits a defective copy from one parent, and a normal copy from another.
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In advanced triage, specially trained doctors, nurses and paramedics may decide that some seriously injured people should not receive advanced care because they are unlikely to survive. It is used to divert scarce resources away from patients with little chance of survival in order to increase the chances for others with higher likelihoods. The use of advanced triage may become necessary when medical professionals decide that the medical resources available are not sufficient to treat all the people who need help. The treatment being prioritized can include the time spent on medical care, or drugs or other limited resources.
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On October 17, 2019, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center released its U.S. Winter Outlook. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation was in its neutral phase and was thus not expected to be a key predictor for the season. As a result, other oscillations such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation were anticipated to be more significant drivers of the seasonal weather, particularly in the form of large temperature and precipitation swings. From the outlook, the greatest likelihoods for above-normal temperatures were for Alaska and Hawaii, with lower but still above-normal odds of above-average temperatures for most of the lower 48 states.
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The film is widely stated to have been made by Manuel Trujillo Durán, a view that persisted even after it was determined the film pioneer did not bring the Vitascope to Venezuela.:47 For many years, sources suggested that it was Trujillo, with or without his brother Guillermo, who made the early films.:242:22:14 Debate still continues, with Venezuelan film scholars variously suggesting different likelihoods that Trujillo was the director. To support the opinion he was not the director, there is evidence that Trujillo probably did not have a motion picture camera with which to make the film, and was in Táchira at the time.
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In all likelihoods Yamhad was a tribal name. The dynasty entered the historic records when the founder Sumu- Epuh was mentioned as an enemy in the inscriptions of Yahdun-Lim of Mari. Sumu-Epuh faced dangerous enemies most important of them was Shamshi-Adad I of Assyria and was killed in one of the battles. His successor Yarim-Lim I was able to defeat all his enemies becoming a Great King, his reign saw an alliance with Hammurabi of Babylon, and the dynasty became the most influential family in the Levant with the armies of Yamhad campaigning as far away as Diniktum in southern Mesopotamia next to Elam borders.
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Temperature is also a factor. Calculations can be performed to determine the conditions needed for a critical state, mass, geometry, concentration etc. Where fissile materials are handled in civil and military installations, specially trained personnel are employed to carry out such calculations, and to ensure that all reasonably practicable measures are used to prevent criticality accidents, during both planned normal operations and any potential process upset conditions that cannot be dismissed on the basis of negligible likelihoods (reasonably foreseeable accidents). The assembly of a critical mass establishes a nuclear chain reaction, resulting in an exponential rate of change in the neutron population over space and time leading to an increase in neutron flux.
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Multiple risk factors for adolescent depression have been identified within the family. Among the strongest is the degree to which conflict is present within a family, with more conflict being associated with greater risk of depression. In addition to this, parental responses to sadness or discontent are also tied to the likelihood of major depression, with both increased aggression and suppressed aggression towards dysphoric children being associated with greater likelihoods of adolescent depression. Although conflict and social support are often viewed as opposites, it is likely that both are the result of different mechanisms so that high levels of conflict do not necessarily have the same impact as low levels of social support.
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This reduces secular friction, allowing Jupiter's eccentricity to be preserved after it is excited by resonance crossings and planetary encounters. Konstantin Batygin, Michael E. Brown, and Hayden Betts, in contrast, found four- and five-planet systems had a similar likelihoods (4% vs 3%) of reproducing the orbits of the outer planets, including the oscillations of Jupiter's and Saturn's eccentricities, and the hot and cold populations of Kuiper belt. In their investigations Neptune's orbit was required to have a high eccentricity phase during which the hot population was implanted. A rapid precession of Neptune's orbit during this period due to interactions with Uranus was also necessary for the preservation a primordial belt of cold classical objects.
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In this case, an individual would be more likely to vote Republican if she became wealthier, but she would be more likely to vote for a Democrat if her neighbor's wealth increased (resulting in a wealthier state). However, the observed difference in voting habits based on state-level and individual-level wealth could also be explained by the common confusion between higher averages and higher likelihoods as discussed above. States may not be wealthier because they contain more wealthy people (i.e. more people with annual incomes over $200,000), but rather because they contain a small number of super-rich individuals; the ecological fallacy then results from incorrectly assuming that individuals in wealthier states are more likely to be wealthy.
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Targasonne granite decomposing into decomposed granite and grus ("granite pourri," rotten granite, and "arène granitique," granitic sand), at the "Chaos" (moraine of the same name, near Font-Romeu-Odeillo-Via in the southern French département (county) of Pyrénées-Orientales. Decomposed granite is classification of rock that is derived from granite via its weathering to the point that the parent material readily fractures into smaller pieces of weaker rock. Further weathering yields material that easily crumbles into mixtures of gravel-sized particles known as grus, that further may break down to produce a mixture of clay and silica sand or silt particles. Different specific granite types have differing propensities to weather, and so differing likelihoods of producing decomposed granite.
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Indo-Canadians in the Greater Toronto Area have an average household income of $86,425, which is higher than the Canadian average of $81,709 but lower than the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area's average of $95,326. Indha Rajagopal, the author of "The Glass Ceiling in the Vertical Mosaic: Indian Immigrants to Canada," analyzed the 1986 Census of Canada. She concluded that in Toronto Indo-Canadians had salaries lower than other people in Toronto, including native-born persons and people who immigrated. Rajagopal stated that credentials obtained from institutions abroad were possibly not being recognized in Canada, so even though Ontario Indo-Canadians had higher likelihoods of completing university studies than the general population, the Indo-Canadians were unable to get higher income levels.
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Almost all arguments involving the Drake equation suffer from the overconfidence effect, a common error of probabilistic reasoning about low-probability events, by guessing specific numbers for likelihoods of events whose mechanism is not yet understood, such as the likelihood of abiogenesis on an Earth-like planet, with current likelihood estimates varying over many hundreds of orders of magnitude. An analysis that takes into account some of the uncertainty associated with this lack of understanding has been carried out by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler and Toby Ord, and suggests that, with very high probability, either intelligent civilizations are plentiful in our galaxy or humanity is alone in the observable universe, with the lack of observation of intelligent civilizations pointing towards the latter option.
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The likelihood, given two or more independent events, is the product of the likelihoods of each of the individual events: :\Lambda(A \mid X_1 \land X_2) = \Lambda(A \mid X_1) \cdot \Lambda(A \mid X_2) This follows from the definition of independence in probability: the probabilities of two independent events happening, given a model, is the product of the probabilities. This is particularly important when the events are from independent and identically distributed random variables, such as independent observations or sampling with replacement. In such a situation, the likelihood function factors into a product of individual likelihood functions. The empty product has value 1, which corresponds to the likelihood, given no event, being 1: before any data, the likelihood is always 1.
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On 8 March, Anaesthesia published a report by John Carlisle, a consultant anesthetist in the United Kingdom, on his statistical analysis of the data reported in 168 papers by Fujii. Carlisle used statistical methods to evaluate whether the published distributions of various variables were consistent with the distributions that could be expected to result from random chance. He found that many of the data sets were "extremely unlikely to have arisen by chance", noting that many of the distributions had "likelihoods that are infinitesimally small", citing a calculated probability of 6.78 × 10−9, or about 1 in 150 million. Accordingly, he recommended that data published by Fujii should be "excluded from meta-analyses or reviews" until such time that the unlikely results could be satisfactorily explained.
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One can simply pick arbitrary values for one of the two sets of unknowns, use them to estimate the second set, then use these new values to find a better estimate of the first set, and then keep alternating between the two until the resulting values both converge to fixed points. It's not obvious that this will work, but it can be proven that in this context it does, and that the derivative of the likelihood is (arbitrarily close to) zero at that point, which in turn means that the point is either a maximum or a saddle point. In general, multiple maxima may occur, with no guarantee that the global maximum will be found. Some likelihoods also have singularities in them, i.e.
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Some studies have also found that adolescents whose media diet was rich in sexual content were more than twice as likely as others to have had sex by the time they were 16. In a Kaiser Family Foundation study, 76 percent of teens said that one reason young people have sex is because TV shows and movies make it seem normal for teens. In addition to higher likelihoods that an adolescent exposed to sexual content in the media will engage in sexual behaviors, they are also have higher levels of intending to have sex in the future and more positive expectations of sex. Some studies suggest that children who watch adult content on television are more likely to have sex earlier once they reach adolescence.
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Some medical practitioners are open to a patient's personal research, as this can open lines of communication between doctors and patients, and prove valuable in eliciting more complete or pertinent information from the patient about their present condition. One reason for this is the fact that the conditions is considered under-recognised by some medical professionals. Other doctors express concern about patients who self-diagnose on the basis of information obtained from the Internet when the patient demonstrates an incomplete or distorted understanding of other diagnostic possibilities and medical likelihoods. A patient who exaggerates one set of symptoms in support of their self-diagnosis while minimizing or suppressing contrary symptoms can impair rather than enhance a doctor's ability to reach a correct diagnosis.
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In the general case we may have many model parameters, and an inspection of the marginal probability densities of interest may be impractical, or even useless. But it is possible to pseudorandomly generate a large collection of models according to the posterior probability distribution and to analyze and display the models in such a way that information on the relative likelihoods of model properties is conveyed to the spectator. This can be accomplished by means of an efficient Monte Carlo method, even in cases where no explicit formula for the a priori distribution is available. The best-known importance sampling method, the Metropolis algorithm, can be generalized, and this gives a method that allows analysis of (possibly highly nonlinear) inverse problems with complex a priori information and data with an arbitrary noise distribution.
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Until recently, software tools for carrying out this form of analysis have been heavily underdeveloped, and were based on the same algorithms used to detect germline variations. Such procedures are not optimized for this task, because they do not adequately model the statistical correlation between the genotypes present in multiple tissue samples from the same individual. More recent investigations have resulted in the development of software tools especially optimized for the detection of somatic mutations from multiple tissue samples. Probabilistic techniques have been developed that pool allele counts from all tissue samples at each locus, and using statistical models for the likelihoods of joint-genotypes for all the tissues, and the distribution of allele counts given the genotype, are able to calculate relatively robust probabilities of somatic mutations at each locus using all available data.
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A technique for protein sequences has been implemented in the software program SAGA (Sequence Alignment by Genetic Algorithm) and its equivalent in RNA is called RAGA. The technique of simulated annealing, by which an existing MSA produced by another method is refined by a series of rearrangements designed to find better regions of alignment space than the one the input alignment already occupies. Like the genetic algorithm method, simulated annealing maximizes an objective function like the sum-of-pairs function. Simulated annealing uses a metaphorical "temperature factor" that determines the rate at which rearrangements proceed and the likelihood of each rearrangement; typical usage alternates periods of high rearrangement rates with relatively low likelihood (to explore more distant regions of alignment space) with periods of lower rates and higher likelihoods to more thoroughly explore local minima near the newly "colonized" regions.
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For antigenically variable viruses, it becomes crucial to model the risk of transmission from an individual infected with virus strain 'A' to an individual who has previously been infected with virus strains 'B', 'C', etc... The level of protection against one strain of virus by a second strain is known as cross-immunity. In addition to risk of infection, cross-immunity may modulate the probability that a host becomes infectious and the duration that a host remains infectious. Often, the degree of cross-immunity between virus strains is assumed to be related to their sequence distance. In general, in needing to run simulations rather than compute likelihoods, it may be difficult to make fine-scale inferences on epidemiological parameters, and instead, this work usually focuses on broader questions, testing whether overall genealogical patterns are consistent with one epidemiological model or another.
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Tout also introduced original research into the undergraduate programme, culminating in the production of a Final Year thesis based on primary sources. Slee, Peter R.H. (1986) Learning and a Liberal Education This horrified Oxbridge, where college tutors had little research capacity of their own and saw the undergraduate as an embryonic future gentleman, liberal connoisseur, widely read, and mainstay of country and empire in politics, commerce, army, land or church, not an apprentice to dusty, centuries-old archives, wherein no more than 1 in 100 could find even an innocuous career. In taking this view they had a fair case, given the various likelihoods and opportunities for their charges. Tout's ally C. H. Firth fought a bitter campaign to persuade Oxford to follow Manchester and introduce scientific study of sources into the History programme, but failed; there was failure too, at Cambridge.
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John Polkinghorne suggests that the nearest analogy to the existence of God in physics is the ideas of quantum mechanics which are seemingly paradoxical but make sense of a great deal of disparate data. Alvin Plantinga compares the question of the existence of God to the question of the existence of other minds, claiming both are notoriously impossible to "prove" against a determined skeptic.see his God and Other Minds: A Study of the Rational Justification of Belief in God Cornell (1990) and Warranted Christian Belief OUP (2000) One approach, suggested by writers such as Stephen D. Unwin, is to treat (particular versions of) theism and naturalism as though they were two hypotheses in the Bayesian sense, to list certain data (or alleged data), about the world, and to suggest that the likelihoods of these data are significantly higher under one hypothesis than the other.See e.g.
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A 2002 study in The Lancet of intercountry adoptees in Sweden of various ethnic backgrounds, most of whom were of Korean, Colombian or Indian (from India) extraction, who were adopted by two parents who were born in Sweden found that intercountry adoptees had the following increased likelihoods relative to the rest of the children who were born in Sweden to two parents who were themselves also born in Sweden: intercountry adoptees were 3.6 times more likely to die from suicide, 3.6 times more likely to attempt suicide, 3.2 times more likely to be admitted for a psychological disorder, 5.2 times more likely to abuse drugs, 2.6 times more likely to abuse alcohol and 1.6 times more likely to commit a crime.Hjern A, Lindblad F & Vinnerljung B. (2002). Suicide, psychiatric illness, and social maladjustment in intercountry adoptees in Sweden: a cohort study. The Lancet. 360(9331). 443-8.
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The points-per-number chart is the secret. The scattered order of the chart obscures the fact that the point-scoring squares are exclusively among the higher and lower throws. Graph of the likelihoods of particular throws in a game of Razzle, where throws from 20 to 36 score nothing. A red bar is a throw that scores points, while a gray bar does not score. A chart might list numbers from 8 through to 48, where a result in a middle range of 20 through 36 is shown as scoring the player nothing, while results 8 through 19 and 37 through 48 all pay out. Visually this would mean that more than half of the squares on the chart showed a payout (with 22 winning squares and only 16 losing ones), and a player might instinctively conclude that more than half of their throws will pay out.
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The imprecision is compounded by the relative likelihoods of false positives and negatives in populations with diabetes and those without. People with type 1 diabetes usually have a wider range of glucose levels, and glucose peaks above normal, often ranging from 40 to 500 mg/dl (2.2 to 28 mmol/l), and when a meter reading of 50 or 70 (2.8 or 3.9 mmol/l) is accompanied by their usual hypoglycemic symptoms, there is little uncertainty about the reading representing a "true positive" and little harm done if it is a "false positive." However, the incidence of hypoglycemia unawareness, hypoglycemia-associated autonomic failure (HAAF) and faulty counterregulatory response to hypoglycemia make the need for greater reliability at low levels particularly urgent in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus, while this is seldom an issue in the more common form of the disease, type 2 diabetes mellitus.
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Oscar Kempthorne was skeptical towards (and often critical of) model-based inference, particularly two influential alternatives: Kempthorne was skeptical of, first, neo-Fisherian statistics, which is inspired by the later writings of Ronald A. Fisher and by the contemporary writings of David R. Cox and John Nelder; neo-Fisherian statistics emphasizes likelihood functions of parameters.Kempthorne often distinguished between the randomization-based analysis of early Fisher and the model-based analysis of (post-Neyman) Fisher, for example in Kempthorne's comments on Debabrata Basu's paper "The Fisher randomization test" in the Journal of the American Statistical Association (1978). Second, Kempthorne was skeptical of Bayesian statistics, which use not only likelihoods but also probability distributions on parameters.However, Kempthorne recognized that the planning of experiments used scientific knowledge and beliefs, and therefore Kempthorne was interested in optimal designs, especially Bayesian experimental design: > The optimal design is dependent upon the unknown theta, and there is no > choice but to invoke prior information about theta in choosing the design.
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This included tasks that required participants to break a familiar habit, where they read an essay and circled words containing the letter 'e' for the first task, then were asked to break that habit by performing a second task where they circled words containing 'e' and/or 'a'. Following this trial, participants were randomly assigned to either the glucose category, where they drank a glass of lemonade made with sugar, or the control group, with lemonade made from Splenda. They were then asked their individual likelihoods of helping certain people in hypothetical situations, for both kin and non-kin, and found that excluding kin, people were much less likely to help a person in need if they were in the control group (with Splenda) than if they had replenished their brain glucose supply with the lemonade containing real sugar. This study also supports the model for self-regulation as a strength because it confirms it is a limited resource.
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