Exogenous shocks"The third cause of a recession, historically, has been an exogenous shock — and those are things we can't predict by definition, otherwise they wouldn't be called 'shocks,'" Mossavar-Rahmani said.
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Even a perfect model would omit what economists call "exogenous shocks".
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"There is always an exogenous case to be made," said Schlossberg.
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And of course exogenous events could intervene and accelerate a breakup.
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Gordon tested positive for exogenous testosterone and clostebol earlier this year.
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That's a big exogenous event, that's 50% tariffs, that's China shutting down Apple.
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Barring some exogenous shock, the Fed is almost certain to move in December.
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We take the dollar as an exogenous element that comes into our forecast.
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Or they could power "smart contracts" that execute automatically upon exogenous trigger events.
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The two world wars tend to be treated as "exogenous events" in economic history.
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"The coronavirus is just one example of exogenous events that could prick the bubble."
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When analysts forecast EV sales, they tend to treat oil prices as exogenous, i.e.
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As with many seemingly exogenous events during the Trump presidency, there's always a tweet.
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The correction is over, "unless you get hit with some exogenous news," said Saut.
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"The sources of risk right now are really exogenous, meaning they're hard to forecast," Gordon said.
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It's called the integrated exogenous antigen testing system, or iEAT — I'm sure that's just a coincidence.
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Many new policies are needed, and many exogenous developments will need to play out just right.
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As for market disruptions, Lutnick sees none, barring exogenous factors, like run-ins with North Korea.
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A similar exogenous shock would naturally benefit the GOP this fall no matter who topped the ticket.
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"Others made 2008 an exogenous event," Mr. Hensler said — an event that they considered beyond their control.
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But it highlights Dwyer's point: Outside of some exogenous shock, the Fed will cause any immediate volatility.
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"When you get these exogenous catalysts, this shows you that the dollar could potentially surge," he added.
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"As always, there are things that could go wrong, especially some exogenous situation, a black swan," he said.
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While some credit normalization is expected, this could be hastened or more severe due largely to exogenous macroeconomic risks.
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In Arizona, for example, an exogenous event that a human driver could have easily avoided led to a collision.
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Are there any long-term effects of exposure to these exogenous hormones on eggs or sperm or potential children?
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This is exogenous: It's coming from totally outside the economy, and it's just hitting the economy like a comet.
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An out-of-competition doping control test the next day indicated the presence of the exogenous anabolic androgenic steroid.
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Overall wealth planning must keep pace with the rapid evolution of the business landscape, exogenous risks, and one's personal goals.
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There is simply not much else to cushion GDP growth should consumer spending falter possibly due to an exogenous shock.
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"New ways of doing business are needed to deal with exogenous threats such as Amazon and discounter expansion," he said.
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THRUSH: --so they viewed Bernie Sanders as an exogenous threat and they viewed Hillary Clinton as an establishment Democratic politician.
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We've been saying over and over again, 'If we get an exogenous event, that's when you get the sell-off.
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But probably, I think ... I go through a series of what I'll call exogenous shocks, or risks to our happiness.
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On the long side, I swoop in and buy during big selling periods, which are often caused by an exogenous event.
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Gordon tested positive for exogenous testosterone and clostebol; Colabello and Stump for dehydrochlormethyltestosterone; and Ravin for Growth Hormone Releasing Peptide 2.
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The chance of an economic slowdown, barring some sort of an exogenous event that's not defined for us, is relatively low.
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The final bear argument points to an exogenous event such as a terrorist attack or a serious conflict with North Korea.
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"All the gold ETFs are doing precisely what they're designed to do, which is track the exogenous price of gold," Nadig said.
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One unknown variable in this formula is that past exogenous shocks served not just to harm incumbents, but to rally opposition parties.
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Sincraian, who won bronze in the men's 85kg event, tested positive for exogenous testosterone at the Rio de Janeiro Games on Aug.
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"And what worries me is that you had this exogenous shock that happen in a fairly fragile market environment," the analyst added.
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Such symbiotic interplay with the artificial could be extended further with exogenous extensions that provide nutrition, growth frameworks, and new defense mechanisms.
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With so many indicators, pundits, and exogenous factors simultaneously attacking investor psyches, it's fairly easy to get caught up in the rigmarole.
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Social networks are now so deeply embedded into global culture that it feels irresponsible to think of them as some exogenous force.
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Mossavar-Rahmani said three historical drivers of economic downturns — the Federal Reserve, economic imbalances, and exogenous shocks — were not cause for concern.
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"You&aposll eventually get some exogenous force that could disrupt the Fed and create additional pressure," Jablonski he Business Insider in May.
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In 2004 Emily Oster, an economist now at Brown University, published a paper arguing that witch trials were linked to exogenous economic shocks.
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But policymakers are also using other branches of government to tackle what a German official calls "the biggest exogenous influence on the West".
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As a result, those economies will continue overproducing relative to their domestic consumption and over rely upon exogenous demand for the foreseeable future.
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In this context, any exogenous increase in prices, due to tariffs, for instance, would likely be absorbed by a reduction in business margins.
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As I mentioned earlier, intelligence and drive and energy are critical in virtually every environment, including our own, and these are exogenous factors.
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New crises that shake up the economy often surprise economists because no exogenous cause appears to be a sufficient explanation for a downturn.
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"Should the authorities prove unable to restrain fiscal spending, or additional exogenous shocks arise, the status quo could prove very fragile," the IMF said.
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So the conclusion is that Nvidia likely has maneuvering room in the short-term to weather exogenous trade tariff shocks and mitigate their damage.
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When commissions suddenly outlawed exogenous testosterone, Henderson became the last fighter to compete with a TRT exemption, knocking out "Shogun" in a 2014 rematch.
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Should earnings determine direction through year-end, any shorter-term weakness presented by exogenous events like trade talks presents a buying opportunity, says Dwyer.
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Major League Baseball announced the suspension after the Marlins' victory in Los Angeles, saying that Gordon had tested positive for exogenous testosterone and clostebol.
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It's an example of the kind of thing that if it did progress in a negative way, it's one of those exogenous events -- confidence.
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It's possible, of course, that an exogenous shock like a recession or a terrorist attack will bring about such a climate in the coming months.
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Several exogenous factors are also helping to keep the flow of oil in check for now, notes Roy Martin of Wood Mackenzie, an energy consultancy.
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And while this scenario is currently not on the table, in the event of impeachment proceedings, it could be classified as an exogenous macro 'shock.
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"A lot of our own policies, and a lot of what the central bank does, is actually set off these two exogenous parameters," he added.
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His work made the development of new ideas "endogenous", meaning that it sought to account for them, rather than writing them off as "exogenous" surprises.
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"Low interest rates coupled with still solid earnings growth suggest valuations can remain high amid a tame business cycle, absent an exogenous shock," he added.
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"Shiller added: "New crises that shake up the economy often surprise economists because no exogenous cause appears to be a sufficient explanation for a downturn.
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Miami's Dee Gordon began an 80-game suspension after testing positive for two performance-enhancing substances - exogenous testosterone and clostebol, according to Major League Baseball.
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Last year, they created their first wines, following their parents' recipe: no chaptalization, no enzymes, no exogenous yeast, no taste additives, and very few sulfites.
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" The impact of this next round in the trade wars, Krueger said, "can produce exogenous shocks to the global system that can dwarf the tariffs.
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The speedy second baseman, who led the majors in stolen bases last season, tested positive for exogenous testosterone and clostebol, MLB said in a statement.
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Now faced with the exogenous shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers are returning to the same tools employed in the financial crisis a decade ago.
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Policymakers generally view things like natural disasters, epidemics and other exogenous occurrences as one-offs in nature and not a factor in long-term policy decisions.
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The executives described Goldman's performance as relatively strong during a quarter where markets were tame and businesses were hurt by exogenous factors, like the U.S. government shutdown.
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When Mr Romer came into economics, most prominent models of growth relied on "exogenous" technological progress: it was simply assumed, rather than generated by the models' equations.
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While the economy has clearly slowed from last year's pace, it is now less at risk of fall to a subtrend growth rate, barring an exogenous shock.
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"Some of the others [outside financials] are maybe where some of the headwinds have been tied to exogenous risk, policy risks, that sort of thing," Gordon said.
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It's also possible that Democratic voters recall the last time a massive exogenous event intruded on a presidential race in such dramatic fashion: the 2008 financial meltdown.
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"The most natural hypothesis to us is that restaurants respond to exogenous changes in neighborhood composition, not that restaurant availability is driving neighborhood change," the paper concludes.
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It is often "forced" into models as an exogenous variable, but at a flat per-kWh cost that allows little differentiation between the different potentials of different subsectors.
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I think it's fair to say I wasn't counting on there beinga Brexit or political uncertainty and then all the other things that have beenhappening as exogenous factors.
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The big picture: Sometimes, as in 2008, a global crisis feels like an exogenous shock — something that hits the world unexpectedly and requires a unified and coordinated response.
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However, there are a variety of steps that CEOs, funders, and partners/clients of startups can take to inoculate themselves against the exogenous threat posed by the coronavirus.
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"The coronavirus is showing us the unpredictable path that an exogenous force can play in interrupting an economy that is already exhibiting many late-cycle symptoms," Minerd wrote.
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But this time could well be different — Wall Street is dealing with a wholly exogenous and unpredictable shock that cannot easily be calmed by an interest rate cut.
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Jordan is still reeling from the 2015 exogenous shock brought on by the civil war in Syria and the massive influx of refugees and Syrian businesses to the country.
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To summarize: Since the increase in the white homicide rate likely can't be explained by the Ferguson effect, something else — some other exogenous shock — might be playing a role.
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That's exactly why Cramer wants investors to always have their sell-off shopping list ready in case of an exogenous crisis, like this temporary obstacle to the tax overhaul.
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These recommendations look like an intentional diversion from the immediate task of stabilizing a dangerously slowing world economy struggling with huge trade imbalances and exogenous shocks of deteriorating global security.
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That could happen if they hold off in September and are then delayed by some exogenous event like Britain's surprise vote in June to leave the European Union, he said.
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Cramer wondered if perhaps there is a computer algorithm that can calculate the average decline after an exogenous event in particular sectors, and know when it is prime to pounce.
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Be it Brexit or other geopolitical volatility, "exogenous events" seemed to be weighing on the minds of both sellers and buyers at this past week's contemporary art auctions in London.
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"We've been saying over and over if we get an exogenous event that's when you get the sell-off, that's when you have to buy," the "Mad Money" host said.
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These are also referred to as photosensitive disorders or photodermatoses, and can be broadly categorized into the following medical terms: idiopathic photodermatoses, exogenous photodermatoses, photoexacerbated dermatoses, genetic photodermatoses, and metabolic photodermatoses.
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"With inflation targeting, you try and look through exogenous shocks, particularly temporary ones and this is a one off," Brian Kahn told Reuters on the sidelines of investor meetings in London.
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"The coronavirus and the oil market disruption may prove to be the exogenous shocks that end this elongated cycle," Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, wrote in a report Tuesday.
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Nate I guess I'd split No. 4 into two groups: exogenous shocks, like a major terrorist attack, and those that are related to the candidates, like revelations about the Clinton Foundation, emails or WikiLeaks.
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The Nazis were more than happy to put these claims into service, and even academics with better politics became convinced that the driver of human progress was the roving exogenous shock of migratory adventures.
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Melendez's urine sample tested positive for exogenous origin of testosterone metabolites and the test was conducted by the UFC themselves as the fight was in Mexico City where there aren't any official regulatory athletic commissions.
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These include potential exogenous shocks from a sharp Chinese slowdown or economic risks from Europe or the US. A shock to the domestic housing market, while not our core scenario, is another potential tail risk.
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It differentiates from these competitors by providing its customers with the means to build protection products for themselves, quick and easy set-up, and its focus on exogenous events that could ruin the customer journey.
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The thought that years of effort will be in vain, absent some exogenous calamity striking at just the right moment, would normally be enough to crush the morale of anyone working on any ambitious political project.
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What it found is that traffic on "privacy-sensitive" articles dropped significantly following what author Jon Penney describes as an "exogenous shock" caused by revelations of the NSA's mass surveillance programs and the resulting media coverage.
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The hope is that by investing in entrepreneurs like Mr. Oquendo and Mr. Figueroa, Puerto Rico's economy will be able to withstand exogenous shocks like changes to the tax code, predatory investments or future natural disasters.
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And recessions are often presaged by certain signals: rising jobless claims; falling home sales; an inverted yield curve; wage pressures that impact corporate margins; exogenous shocks, including oil spikes; or destabilizing valuations in key asset classes.
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It is important that institutions address the influence of colonialism on material cultures and methods of classification and display, as well as the museum's own role in the displacement or eradication of indigenous and exogenous communities.
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She said: "Our recommendation to our clients is you need to invest based on what we call 'the steady fundamental factors,' not based on the unsteady undertow of geopolitical issues or the possibility of exogenous shocks."
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McCrae believes the "digital body" — that is, the totality of data around an individual when genetic and exogenous (environmental, nutritional, social) factors relating to health data become available — will be in excess of 1 TB per person.
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Growth was so slow that unexpected exogenous shocks could send the economy back into recession and outright deflation at a time when central banks — following years of accommodative monetary policy — were viewed as being out of ammunition.
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"The clearest outcome of the exogenous COVID-19 shock is a collapse in bond yields, which once panic fades can induce huge rotation to "growth stocks" and "bond proxies" in equities," they wrote in a client note.
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"The market is worrying (about) this sort of exogenous shock to the process by the build-up of tension in Hong Kong - I ultimately doubt that either side will allow that to delay the process," Cole said.
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If, for example, the changing win rate is caused by exogenous changes such as new, more restrictive laws or procedures, the change itself would not be a cause for concern, although one might question its normative desirability.
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With extensive macro data from the 15 years since then and sound methods to control for exogenous factors unrelated to the specific change in tax law, the research finds sizable harm inflicted by §936's repeal country-wide.
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We're still a long way away from the general election campaign, and there's no telling what events and exogenous factors could ultimately shape how well Trump and the eventual nominee might fare eight or so months from now.
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In general, commodities like oil and gold are good to own in times of market turmoil that is brought about by exogenous events, like the U.S.-Iran tiff that occurred at the start of this week, Davi said.
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The announcement this week from Brussels that a transitional Brexit deal has been secured removes some of the short term political uncertainty and should also give the MPC comfort in its short term assessment of potential exogenous risks.
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Rating constraints applicable to the aircraft leasing industry more broadly include the monoline nature of the business; vulnerability to exogenous shocks; potential exposure to residual value risk; sensitivity to oil prices; reliance on wholesale funding sources; and increased competition.
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In their public speeches, Powell and multiple other Fed officials have characterized the U.S. economy as strong, led by solid consumer spending but threatened by exogenous factors such as global weakness, the U.S.-China tariff war and uncertainties associated with Brexit.
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Rather than focusing on the potential, and, in most cases, limited market effect of exogenous, unpredictable events, we need to be most concerned with the level of the overall market and the specific pricing of the stocks in our portfolios.
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"There is some comeuppance due, and unfortunately I think the coronavirus is that exogenous variable that is a catalyst to take some of these stocks down," the portfolio manager at Independent Solutions Wealth Management told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Friday.
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If Facebook neglected an ad's history in its engagement modeling, then the estimation of that ad's clickiness would be a pure function of either the user's general behavior (do they click on ads often?), or exogenous factors like time of day or geography.
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AND YEAH, I THINK YOU NEED TO TAKE – ONCE YOU'VE DECIDED THAT, I THINK YOU NEED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF WINDOWS WHEN THEY PRESENT THEMSELVES BECAUSE YOU COULD HAVE EXOGENOUS FACTOR, YOU COULD HAVE MARKET EVENTS THAT COULD GIVE US SOME PAUSE.
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The danger of a Cruz nomination is that an exogenous shock to the political system—a recession, say, or a international crisis—could hand him the presidency even as the steady-state preferences of the electorate suggest he would lose quite badly.
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Read MoreTrader warns Fed not to repeat a Depression-era mistake On Thursday, Saut blamed a "cacophony of exogenous events" for derailing the traditional year-end rally and leading to the worst start to a new year on Wall Street since 2008.
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The most likely way forward for prices is lower still, into at least the mid-$30 range, which is worth playing for (read: short); however, insurance against an upside price spike from an exogenous event needs to be part of the plan.
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"In the short term, there's only so much that the Fed can actually do because you're dealing with a totally exogenous variable that it has no control over: the virus," said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at the brokerage firm BTIG.
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"The Covid-213 moment is a potential preview of what a climate-driven financial crisis could look like, because it's being driven by an exogenous shock that could destabilize the financial system," says Graham Steele of the Stanford Graduate School of Business.
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"In the short term, there's only so much that the Fed can actually do because you're dealing with a totally exogenous variable that it has no control over: the virus," said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at the brokerage firm BTIG.
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Major League Baseball made the announcement after Gordon helped the Marlins beat the Dodgers 4-2 on Thursday, According to the commissioner's office, Gordon's system was found to have exogenous Testosterone and Clostebol in violation of Major League Baseball's Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.
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"I think that they're trying to carefully position themselves, managing their dual mandate, the unemployment rate, inflation - which is giving them room to cut if necessary - but then also not necessarily feeding too much into trade policy because it is this exogenous factor," said Solanes.
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"I think that they're trying to carefully position themselves, managing their dual mandate, the unemployment rate, inflation - which is giving them room to cut if necessary - but then also not necessarily feeding too much into trade policy because it is this exogenous factor," said Solanes.
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"The nature of this crisis is very different from what we faced in 2008 to 2009.... we are dealing with a temporary crisis by an exogenous shock to the economic system which affects our productive capacity with an intensity never seen before," Centeno said.
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"Saunas have the positive benefits of growth hormone and not the problems associated with superphysiological GH," says Greenfield, referring to the fact that regularly injecting very high amounts of exogenous growth hormone has been linked to nerve and joint pain and a higher risk of colorectal cancer.
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"If you have this exogenous impact to the economy, and you suddenly have rapid contraction that corporations can't adjust to in real time — it doesn't matter how inexpensive the debt you have is, if you have no cash flow with which to service it," Snyder said.
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He explained his approach this way:"We tend to build positions where we like the endogenous integrity of the business model and the management team, but there's some sort of exogenous uncertainty, and that gives us the window buy into," he said in an exclusive interview with Business Insider.
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"While the hyper growth story continues to manifest itself in consensus forecasts and sentiment, ultimately creating the comparison to high profile tech names, we believe there are a number of exogenous risks that investors should remain cognizant of such as competition, execution, and other geopolitical concerns," Jonas said.
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"In fact, this is a classic example of how I'm always telling you to wait for some exogenous weakness to give you a chance to buy great stocks at lower levels," he suggested, adding that his charitable trust promoted Citigroup to a "buy" because its stock is too cheap.
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Jaime Caruana, general manager of the BIS, said that recent turmoil on equity markets, disappointing economic growth, large movements in exchange rates and falling commodity prices were not unconnected, exogenous shocks but indicative of maturing financial cycles, particularly in emerging economies, and of shifts in global financial conditions.
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But consider where Bisping was a few years ago, an outspoken middleweight whose ascents toward a title shot always ended with him getting knocked down, often by opponents pumped full of commission-approved exogenous testosterone, and of course those losses were blessings because Anderson Silva would murder him.
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The notion that a terrorist attack might sway a Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump election to Trump stems from two premises: first, that national security threats enhance the appeal of the Republican Party's militarism; second, that negative, exogenous shocks, like terrorist attacks, drive voters into the arms of the non-incumbent party.
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While some credit normalization is expected, Fitch notes that this could be hastened or potentially more severe due largely to exogenous macroeconomic risks such as continued pressure in the global oil and gas markets, as well as macroeconomic weakness in China or Europe that flows through to and adversely impacts the Canadian economy.
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What I'm worried about is, when you have an economy that is growing as feebly as it is for as long in the business cycle as it's been — and it's only being driven by only one sector, meaning the consumer — we're more prone or apt to get hit by some negative, exogenous shock.
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Having carved out core loyalists and supporters in the primaries, moving the needle in terms of votes has become increasingly difficult for both candidates in the broader, less zealous electorate — short of exogenous shocks such as the "Access Hollywood" Trump tape leak from this month or further leaks from Wikileaks regarding Clinton.
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"They're going to have to wait until they get a bad employment number, a really weak inflation number, or some exogenous shock or negative GDP number to get them to feel a greater sense of urgency, to get them to feel that they are justified in the face of questions about their independence."
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In 2014, a study of more than a million online restaurant reviews, on sites including Foursquare, GrubHub, and TripAdvisor, found that the ratings were influenced by a number of "exogenous" factors, unrelated to food quality—among them menu prices (higher is better) and the weather on the day the reviews were written (worse is worse).
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When you introduce alcohol, it acts on GABA receptors, and sort of chills things out a little bit [...] But when you introduce that chemical into your body, then your body stops making it, and as long as you continue to add that exogenous chemical, and you get more and more of it, then everything's fine.
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While some credit normalization is expected, Fitch notes that this could be hastened or potentially more severe due largely to potential impacts from the mortgage market across Canada as well as exogenous macroeconomic risks such as continued pressure in the global oil and gas markets that could lead to the spill-over effects on the general economy.
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Puncture one of the exogenous rituals surrounding the game, this critique says, and the entire enterprise collapses into chaos—the intrusion of multiplicities of opinions loudly expressed, the possibility of unintended material consequences, the inconvenient facts of other people's lived realities, the carnage and challenge and thrill of living in this world with your eyes open.
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While some credit normalization is expected, Fitch notes that this could be hastened or potentially more severe due largely to potential impacts from the mortgage market across Canada as well as exogenous macroeconomic risks such as unexpected increases in interest rates, a severe housing price correction as well as macroeconomic weakness in the overall Canadian economy that leads to a material rise in unemployment.
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It's arguable how much credit Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpFive environmental fights to watch in 2020 Lawmakers close to finalizing federal strategy to defend against cyberattacks The 7 big Supreme Court cases to watch in 2020 MORE deserves for a booming economy he inherited, but about all that could go bad is what economists call an "exogenous" factor, something out of the blue like a war.
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To reach those conclusions, the study drew from a comparative model developed by UCLA to rule out confounding variables that, specific to New York, might be driving those increases: After controlling for a comprehensive set of factors, they find that a "exogenous" 266% increase in number of Airbnb listings in an area (which is to say, an increase that is not driven by other factors which would have increased rents anyway) predicts a 103% increase in long-term rents.
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