Turnout, Turnout, Turnout: Iranians spoke out against the hardliners The elections had a surprisingly high turnout.
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Black turnout may not exceed white turnout again, either because black turnout fades a bit, or because white turnout increases.
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But in Nevada, Latino turnout lagged the overall turnout rate by 6 points, and in Colorado, Hispanic turnout was about 18 points lower than overall turnout.
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The combination of flat Republican turnout and a Democratic turnout surge implies a big increase in turnout over 2014.
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For this piece, we examine full turnout, 22014-level turnout (a presidential election), and 24-level turnout (a midterm election).
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This might not sound like a great Democratic turnout, but it is pretty rare for the Democratic turnout rate to roughly match the Republican turnout rate, at least in a high-turnout election.
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Turnout — Alas, poor turnout, always blamed when things go wrong.
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Black turnout dropped by 3.7 percentage points more than white turnout and turnout by young voters dropped more than among older voters.
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Black turnout dropped by 3.7 percentage points more than white turnout, and turnout by young voters dropped more than among older voters.
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But the historical record offers little precedent for Democratic turnout to beat Republican turnout by the same sort of large margin by which Republican turnout usually beats Democratic turnout when Democrats hold the presidency.
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The 22016% turnout is closer to the average presidential turnout (260%) than midterm turnout (21982%) since the 22020th Amendment was enacted and it nearly exceeds the turnout in the 20203 election (22020%) and 22016 election (22016%).
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If minority turnout was equal to white turnout, Clinton wins," said Mr. Fraga, who describes these patterns in a new book, "The Turnout Gap.
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Democratic turnout was way up, but Republican turnout was still substantially higher.
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In 2012 black voter turnout exceeded the percentage of white voter turnout.
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Republicans may also be robbing future turnout to pay for current turnout.
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The turnout model yields an individual-by-individual estimate of likely turnout.
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Black turnout even exceeded white turnout in 2012, before slipping last year.
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In Florida, Hispanic turnout was actually a point higher than turnout overall.
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The New Hampshire turnout allowed Democrats to retort: turnout-frenzy is back!
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Midterm turnout can sometimes trail presidential-election-year turnout by 20 points.
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Asian-American voter turnout has also been below black and white turnout since at least 1992; it was even with Latino voter turnout in 2012.
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According to the project, lower voter turnout generally benefits Trump but his best hope for success is if Republican turnout surges and Democratic turnout is low.
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Turnout, turnout, turnout It's so key to what happens in Montana that it's almost become a cliché, but who turns out Thursday to vote is everything.
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The final turnout score is 56 percent turnout model and 44 percent self-report, based on a model of validated turnout in prior Upshot/Siena polls.
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RIVERA: But that was a Trump turnout, that&aposs not a Balderson turnout.
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Latina turnout was 50 percent, exceeding Hispanic male turnout by four percentage points.
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Voter turnout key The results of this election may hinge on voter turnout.
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So far in 22, these kinds of turnout models have underestimated Democratic turnout.
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While the Current Population Survey reported record high black turnout in 2008 and 2012 -- black turnout even surpassed white turnout in 2012 -- observers have long wondered if turnout rates would recede when Barack Obama was no longer on the ballot.
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You get massive Democratic turnout, black turnout in particular, slumping Republican turnout, and a whole lot of write-in votes from people who should be your supporters.
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Alternatively, they could be underestimating working-class white turnout, or overestimating black voter turnout.
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In comparison, white voter turnout in 2012 was 64% and black turnout was 66%.
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While Republican primary turnout for the House increased by 1.2%, Democratic turnout spiked 4.6%.
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Turnout is key and turnout will very likely be high on the Democratic side.
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One dangerous sign for Democrats: Republican turnout on Tuesday exceeded Democrat turnout in Ohio.
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But Latino turnout has historically trailed both white and black turnout in presidential elections.
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The worry about low turnout has now turned into suspicion of artificially high turnout.
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Second, such a turnout surge is large in comparison to other effects on turnout.
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African-American turnout has trailed white turnout when Obama was not on the ballot.
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But DC's turnout looks relatively feeble when compared with nearby suburban areas like Montgomery County, Maryland (63 percent turnout in 2016), and Arlington County, Virginia (67 percent turnout).
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CG: OK. So Democrats are responsible for both Democratic turnout and Republican turnout this fall.
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The turnout for Democratic primaries often doubled or even tripled the GOP turnout until 2012.
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Usually turnout to a caucus is only one-fourth of the turnout to a primary.
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" "The early vote turnout is already surpassing what the total vote turnout was in 2202.
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Overall turnout was approximately 22.7%; the highest turnout percentage in a primary since 1994. Amazing!
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TV that the turnout for early voting is "on pace" with the 2016 election turnout.
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In other words, it increases turnout precisely in the contests that typically see lower turnout.
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Although Democratic turnout surges are proportionately much larger than the GOP's typical turnout gains, the margins of victory for these winning Democrats relied heavily on a turnout surge of independents.
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Margins and turnout in the suburbs Obviously turnout in a special election is much lower, so these comparisons are not exact, but the numbers reflect a significance beyond turnout numbers.
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For example, did depressed white turnout play the defining role, or was it increased black turnout?
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Monday's turnout is likely to put that number to shame, if Sunday's turnout was any indicator.
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Democratic turnout in New Hampshire on Tuesday, like turnout in Iowa last week, wasn't spectacularly robust.
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Use Voter Turnout Data A more complex strategy could involve looking at voter turnout data. Fairvote.
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" She added, "In this election, we tripled Latino turnout, we tripled the Asian-Pacific Islander turnout.
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In Iowa, which still uses a caucus, 2020 turnout was roughly on pace with 2016 turnout.
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In the Michigan primary on Tuesday, Democratic turnout shattered records, spiking 33 percent over 85033 turnout.
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His chances decrease with maximum turnout on the Democratic side and increase with minimum turnout expected.
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In the simplest terms, Republican turnout seems to have surged this year, while Democratic turnout stagnated.
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Those participation rate figures compared with a turnout of around 72 percent at the same time in 2012, a 75.1 percent turnout in 2007, and a 67.6 percent turnout in 2002.
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A 265-based turnout model, for instance, could have underestimated black turnout in 230 when Barack Obama was on the ticket; a 242-based model could have overestimated black turnout in 265.
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But in 2012, the black voter turnout rate exceeded the white voter turnout rate, 66.2% to 64.1%.
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Still, she predicted a downtick in turnout at the polling location, despite large turnout around the state.
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In midterms past, Democratic turnout tends to come close to equaling Republican turnout with a Republican president.
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Across all states, Election Day turnout slipped, an anomaly in a year when turnout had been rising.
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Low turnout seems a likely culprit, and lower turnout among nonwhites is not unusual in midterm elections.
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Taken together, these two factors — higher Republican turnout and higher youth and nonwhite turnout — roughly canceled out.
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No simple, inexpensive tactic improved turnout more than three percentage points on average in high-turnout elections.
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Nevada's strong turnout comes after New Hampshire also broke its voter turnout record for primaries last week.
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In other words, polarizing candidates diminish turnout in their own party while boosting turnout among opposing partisans.
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Pollsters have found that Sanders would be advantaged by a large turnout — especially a large youth turnout.
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Among the 10 studies it looked at, the results were mixed — five found no significant effect on turnout, one found increased turnout, and four found decreased turnout (between 803 and 4 percentage points).
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Millennial turnout and African-American turnout was higher than in 2016, but also higher than 2008 and '12.
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Turnout among white voters rose by about 3%, while turnout among black voters is down by about 4.5%.
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We've got to get a turnout in the African-American community that equals or surpasses the white turnout.
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I don't think it's reasonable to expect black turnout to eclipse white turnout without Obama on the ticket.
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The 2018 midterms appear to have produced unusually high turnout, while the 2014 midterms produced unusually low turnout.
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This year's June turnout was closer to both the 2006 and 2010 primaries where turnout was at 33%.
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Democratic turnout finished at 31 percent, higher than during the 2016 presidential primary, where turnout was 26 percent.
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If suppression were really the primary force driving turnout, then African-Americans would have the lowest turnout rates.
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Laws that suppress turnout or voter activities are typically bad for Democrats; higher turnout can sometimes help Republicans.
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These sorts of lopsided turnout advantages aren't sustainable in a high-turnout presidential election or even a midterm.
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But in a low turnout election like this, it doesn't take much to generate a meaningful turnout edge.
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Political observers say Democrats' biggest problem in Texas elections is turnout, particularly in historically low-turnout midterm cycles.
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Historically, white turnout has been higher than black turnout — a pattern broken for the first time in 2012.
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Turnout in 2018 was about 213 points higher than 2014 turnout and higher than any midterm in decades.
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If Clinton clinches the nomination soon, it would have a negative impact on turnout in future contests and lower average turnout levels, making it more consistent with GOP turnout under the same electoral context.
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In the former, a Latino-majority district, they broke up cohesive Latino areas, pulled in Latino voters with lower turnout rates while excluding those with higher turnout rates, and included more high-turnout white voters.
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Go deeper: Turnout surges among young voters in battleground states' primaries Wave watch: Inside the Democratic primary turnout surge
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O'Rourke uses that low turnout like a motivating club: The state is 47th in the nation in voter turnout.
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Contrast that to 2016 black voter turnout, when turnout was down across the board, including swing states like Virginia.
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Turnout was highest in 16253 at 61.6 percent, and only three elections since 1968 had turnout over 60 percent.
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With the exception of 1980, voter turnout was above average and 5 of 7 had turnout over 60 percent.
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While it doesn't sound like much, it would mean record turnout in Pennsylvania and near-record turnout in Wisconsin.
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High turnout on Super Tuesday may not mean Democratic turnout is bound to surge in the 2020 general election.
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It claimed to have driven down moderate Republican turnout by 2.5 percent, and conservative Republican turnout by 4.4 percent.
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To the extent that new voter turnout is higher, it isn't breaking for Sanders, and youth turnout hasn't exploded.
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The black turnout rate was also well above the turnout rate for Americans aged 18 to 29: 43.4 percent.
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Political experts have previously told CNN that voter turnout may drop from the 61% turnout seen during the primary.
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Voter turnout in the US trails other countries The goal of the bill is to ensure maximum voter turnout.
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A sluggish turnout in Iowa last week alarmed Democratic leaders banking on a huge November turnout to oust Trump.
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In a country where voter turnout is normally closer to 80 percent, a 23 percent turnout is hardly exciting.
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In that election, Muslim voter turnout was a record 79 percent, compared with the overall turnout of 68 percent.
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While Latino voter turnout was up across the board, black voter turnout could be waning compared to previous years.
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Interim data at 1630 GMT showed voter turnout at 68.13 percent, exceeding final turnout in the past three elections.
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That's why Jon had presidential-level turnout in a special election that would normally yield maybe 12 percent turnout.
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More than 46 million people voted early in 2016, a very slight increase over turnout in 2012, and turnout was high among women and Latinos (though there was a worrying decrease in black early voter turnout).
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In #KY06 Dem race, huge increase in turnout in eastern rural counties with almost no Dem turnout in 2016 primary.
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They lost it in 2010, when Republican primary turnout skyrocketed and Democratic turnout plummeted — the reverse of what's happening now.
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You're a Republican Congressman from Florida, turnout is 12 percent in your primary, your district is gerrymandered- Shitty turnout. Yeah.
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Turnout in nonpresidential years typically drops, especially among young voters (In 2014, youth voter turnout was abysmally low, Thomas says).
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" She tackled the subject of voter turnout among African-Americans too, attributing a lower turnout to "the way they're raised.
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According to census data, turnout in the 21625 midterms reached a modern high and millennial turnout nearly doubled from 2900.
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High voter turnout The other big story of this election in Georgia, as throughout the country, was high voter turnout.
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Most early voting allows an assessment of African-American turnout by measuring turnout from neighborhoods that are predominantly African-American.
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Hispanic turnout is set to vastly exceed the turnout from four years ago, and early voting data indicates that Mrs.
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So a larger turnout — a turnout bolstered by allowing women to attend — could translate into more money to give away.
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Black turnout in 2012 was even higher than white turnout, at 19963 percent; it fell by almost half in 2014.
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Most agreed, however, that youth turnout in the Democratic primary is not necessarily predictive of turnout in the general election.
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This high turnout proceeded record turnout in the 27 midterms and a wave election for Democrats in the US House.
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It looks as if black turnout was weak mostly in comparison with the stronger turnout among white and Hispanic voters.
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Voter turnout in the state's primary in May was less than 20%, making Tuesday's turnout even more stark by comparison.
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In Delaware, the turnout for Democrats and the unaffiliated matched 2014 levels, while Republican turnout was five percentage points lower.
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Take Florida, where an apparent surge in Hispanic turnout ended up being dwarfed by a surge in rural white turnout.
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"What is extraordinary in this special election is that we observe that the surge in black voter turnout—the difference between baseline expected Black turnout and actual black turnout -- provided Doug Jones's margin of victory," Shropshire said.
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In the decades since, black voter turnout has fluctuated from presidential election to presidential election, but it's generally trended up — and when President Barack Obama was on the ballot, black voter turnout even surpassed white voter turnout.
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The registration and turnout rate in New Mexico and New York were far lower, with 13 percent turnout in New Mexico and 8 percent turnout in New York (for 2012; that study counted discharges from 693 to 2012).
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Republican turnout was certainly higher than normal too, but there is little question that Mr Trump drove turnout on the left.
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A split GOP electorate could depress turnout within the party, and a Trump-style extreme GOP candidate could excite Democratic turnout.
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A full model of turnout going back to 1972 shows a consistent pattern of lower GOP turnout, on average, than Democrats.
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"I think we're going to have a very good turnout," Padilla added when asked if the numbers would translate to turnout.
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Would black turnout fall after the historically high turnout enjoyed by Obama, the nation's first black president, and by how much?
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Turnout among this demographic saw some changes between 22018 and 2012 but was ultimately lower than white, black, and Asian turnout.
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Low youth turnout and turnout in general seems to me like a crisis we need to focus on, regardless of candidate.
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If you project these patterns forward to 2018, you'd anticipate Democratic turnout would surge to basically catch up to Republican turnout.
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You can have absurdly good turnout in one precinct and abysmal turnout at another, and the number of delegates won't change.
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That's not because Democratic turnout was weaker in the first round than the second round; turnout was up across the board.
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Turnout in the four constituencies that cast ballots was 43%, much lower than previous elections in 2016, when turnout was 58.3%.
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As a result, voter ID laws cause the gap between white voter turnout and non-white voter turnout to grow significantly.
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In majority-black Petersburg, the turnout was even lower than it was in 2013, even as turnout surged in Northern Virginia.
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But in Alabama, black turnout was far stronger than white Republican turnout, based on county-level data and the exit polls.
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If it's because of turnout, the Democratic midterm turnout problem might just solve itself with a Republican in the White House.
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We find that in the median state, the $15 minimum wage loses 2 points moving from full turnout to 2014 turnout.
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Voters in this age bracket averaged just a 43 percent turnout rate between 20183 and 2016, compared to the 65 percent turnout rate of voters over age 25 and the nearly 80 percent turnout rate of the oldest cohort.
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And Democrats like Perez, who have long believed higher turnout means Democrats are more likely to win, see signs that increased turnout this year points to massive turnout in the 2020 election, when Trump will be on the ballot.
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Voter turnout among voters aged under 30 run as much as twenty percentage points below turnout for the over-60 age group.
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When relating 22016 voter turnout patterns to 2016 patterns, it is important to be cautious in drawing any conclusions about final turnout.
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Mook went state by state highlighting turnout numbers that hint at not only a high turnout election, but one that favors Clinton.
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Inside today's turnout projections from VoteCastr Inside today's turnout projections from VoteCastr We updated this story throughout the day from 2147.9 a.m.
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Turnout was higher than the final turnout of 61.73 percent in the last election in 2014 which gave Orban a landslide victory.
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VOTER TURNOUT DECLINE Turnout in presidential elections has declined steadily since 2003 from nearly 70 percent to just 44 percent in 2015.
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Every Democratic contest held so far has seen turnout drop compared with 2008 levels, while on the Republican side, turnout has climbed.
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Democrats had remained hopeful, as early voter turnout this cycle in Texas surpassed the state's total voter turnout in the 85033 midterms.
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CBS also ran two additional models for the tracker: one that assumes high voter turnout and one that assumes low voter turnout.
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Although some Democrats were wringing their hands about Iowa turnout, turnout has been strong — in fact, increasingly so — in each contest since.
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We can also use this data to model the likely electorate because past turnout is a pretty good predictor of future turnout.
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New York was eighth to last in voter turnout for the 2016 presidential election, and voter turnout is traditionally low in primaries.
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With two hours of voting left, Israeli election turnout was at a 20-year high Turnout stood at 65.5% at 8 p.m.
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It's just that the Republican turnout, which was particularly weak in the first round, increased by more than the Democratic turnout increased.
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And as FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver pointed out on Twitter, primary election turnout doesn't usually correlate with general election turnout.
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But voter turnout in the New Hampshire Democratic primary (6900,2628) was much higher than voter turnout in the Iowa Democratic caucuses (28503,22019).
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The first risk for Mr Sánchez is that turnout drops sharply from April's 76%; lower turnout tends to hit the left disproportionately.
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This was mainly a result of higher white and Hispanic turnout; black turnout was roughly in line with our pre-election expectations.
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On average, white and Hispanic turnout was 4 percent higher than we expected, while black turnout was 203 percent lower than expected.
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But Republican turnout in 2018 actually improved over the party's 2014 turnout, even though the GOP controlled all three branches of government.
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We just had one of the highest-turnout midterm elections in history; a few states actually had higher turnout than in 2016.
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For example, in the 2016 presidential election, the turnout was 55%, while in the 2014 midterms we saw only 633% voter turnout.
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It turned out there wasn't a huge fall in voter turnout from 270, and it wasn't the lowest turnout in 22008 years.
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Voter turnout was 41.5 percent, which was lower than voter turnout in the 2014 presidential election, despite widespread accounts of voter bribery.
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In Virginia, however, turnout has been significantly higher — the highest Asian-American turnout in the nation, Desai writes — thanks to a deliberate strategy that has included: · Creating Democratic Asian Americans of Virginia (or DAAV), a group dedicated to raising turnout.
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Back in 2015, a pre-election BBC report explained, there was a whopping 35 percent spread in turnout between the 18- to 25-year-olds (with 43 percent voter turnout) and the over-65-year-olds (boasting 78 percent voter turnout).
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According to one report, voter turnout for the 2014 midterm elections fell short of 37%, the lowest midterm turnout in nearly 70 years.
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Iran has 56 million eligible voters, and given voter turnout for the 2013 election was nearly 73 percent, high turnout is again expected.
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He helped drive up urban turnout dramatically, according to some urban organizers: In Houston, turnout was higher than in the 2016 presidential elections.
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Election data from the Texas Secretary of State: 2016 presidential election (county by county); statewide historical turnout; 2014 midterm turnout (county by county).
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Over the past century, the average turnout for mid-terms has been 218%—229 percentage points lower than average turnout in presidential contests.
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From 2014 to 2018, turnout among whites with a 4-year degree went up 17%, while non-white voters' turnout increased by 15%.
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Special elections usually generate lower turnout, with the election's scheduling on the Thursday before Memorial Day Weekend set to reduce turnout even further.
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" Turnout figures 'tampered with' At a press conference Wednesday in London, Smartmatic CEO Antonio Mugica said the turnout figures had been "tampered with.
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The average Democratic turnout is up 64 percent, while the average Republican turnout in those states is up 38 percent over 2014 levels.
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It certainly didn't drive turnout in the rural areas that Trump won, and may have depressed turnout in the suburbs of Northern Virginia.
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That looks like great turnout when compared with other cities, or even to DC's turnout for the 28503 mayoral election (just 22019 percent).
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Early voter turnout in this year's midterm election in Texas has reportedly surpassed the total voter turnout in the state's 28500 midterm election.
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Voter suppression — In talking turnout, there is an implicit assumption of intention and choice — that those 2012 Milwaukee voters chose not to turnout.
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A little more seriously, I don't think the hearings matter for Democratic turnout because the courts never seem to matter for Democratic turnout.
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Coronavirus is impacting turnout Democrats had been enjoying a surge in enthusiasm and turnout, which had helped Biden open up his commanding lead.
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The real test will be in 2018 — Democratic turnout tends to plummet in midterm elections, and overall turnout was historically low in 2014.
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The turnout model is estimated in three main steps: A "general" midterm turnout model is fit using data from the 2014 midterm elections.
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Florida's primary turnout actually exceeded 2016 levels, with early voting and voting by mail accounting for a significant portion of the total turnout.
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But the data shows that Republican turnout surged in these Blue Dog districts, while Democratic turnout lagged compared to levels in other districts.
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Turnout was 75.9 percent, up from 71.5 percent in 2013, but a long way from the 90 percent turnout figures of the 1980s.
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Observers predicted his machine would do well if GOP turnout was 150,000 or less, yet turnout amounted to a record 180,000-plus people.
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There was no relationship between the change in Democratic support and the change in turnout, or the change in turnout and Democratic strength.
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And a 22-based turnout model would also miss one of the potentially most important dynamics of the Alabama race: low Republican turnout.
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While Latino voting turnout might be up, so is white voter turnout, The Washington Post reported, particularly in Texas, Arizona and North Carolina.
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Democrats doubled early voting turnout compared to the 2014 midterms and beat turnout numbers from the 2016 presidential election year by 4 percent.
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Pre-election polls all showed that Mr. Trump would benefit from a stupendous turnout, but few anticipated a turnout of anything near this level.
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In Manchester's ward four, the clerk said the low turnout predictions — relative to past projections of astronomical turnout among Democrats — seem to be accurate.
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Silverman also pointed out that 2013 turnout was 24 percent—at the time a record low— and in 2009 the turnout percentage was 28.
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Nonwhite voter turnout plummeted in Michigan from 67% in 2012 to 55% in 2016, while white voter turnout only dipped from 68% to 67%.
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He cites evidence suggesting that turnout will be higher for Brexiteers and concludes that, if overall turnout is 50-55%, Brexit may well win.
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But if Democrats keep winning well-educated voters, that could help in terms of turnout, and so much of the midterms is about turnout.
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A last-minute surge in turnout could make a difference—as of last month, voter turnout for this election was expected to be low.
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Interestingly, the Democratic turnout relative to 2016 is pretty constant across the range, while Republican turnout was down significantly in the most conservative municipalities.
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Yes, but it came in the form of Latino voters who reversed their record-low turnout in 230 with record-high turnout in 22020.
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The only question is whether that decreases turnout on caucus day, but it seems assured overall turnout will be up from the last election.
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And in Tuesday's primary, Democratic turnout came close to matching Republican turnout — Democratic primary voters made up 48 percent of those who turned out.
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And tonight with what appears to be a record-breaking voter turnout, because of a huge voter turnout — and I say huge — we won.
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The simple story of 2016 is that turnout in core Democratic areas was slightly down, while turnout in core Republican areas was slightly up.
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The higher-than-expected turnout might have inadvertently contributed to a 2016-like pattern, since lower-turnout voters in the big urban states tend to be nonwhite and Democratic, while lower-turnout voters in rural, less educated states tend to be white working-class voters.
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While turnout among older white voters is expected to decrease 22% from 2016, turnout among millennials, people of color, and unmarried women could fall 35%.
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Texas gained new 1.6 million voters after intense voter outreach campaigns, and turnout was 20183 percent—the highest midterm turnout in the state since 1970.
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They will then compare those turnout numbers to their own polling and voting frequency numbers to see if turnout is exceeding or underperforming those baselines.
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Why it matters: Voter turnout is traditionally low in the U.S. Before 2018, turnout rates for midterms since 1974 had languished around 40% to 41%.
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They found that voter ID laws not only had no effect on the turnout of black voters, they had no impact on turnout at all.
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That's a huge number for a midterm turnout, particularly in the state that had the worst voter turnout in the country for the 2014 midterms.
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In 2016, Hispanic turnout was the lowest among all racial demographics, 48 percent, compared with white Americans, whose turnout rate was the greatest — 65 percent.
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Gomez's rival, Democrat Robert Lee Ahn, saw an opportunity in running in a low-turnout election against a front-runner with a low-turnout base.
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On the Democratic side, low Independent turnout means Clinton comes in at 39% to Sanders 54% and with high turnout, Sanders' lead expands to 18%.
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The exit poll results for Hispanic voters is nearly as stark, with Hispanic turnout virtually even with non-Hispanic turnout — for both 2004 and 20083.
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Once again, there's no evidence of a surge in black turnout in these same areas — the turnout in Cleveland may not have increased at all.
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But they were helped just as much by favorable turnout trends — the huge surge in black turnout, in particular — and by favorable trends in support.
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Turnout figures and other statistics were not immediately available, though Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli predicted late Thursday there would be a turnout of 70%.
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Turnout in the September GOP runoff was below 85033,000 voters, while Alabama's secretary of State has predicted about 20 to 25 percent turnout on Tuesday.
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High turnout -- especially in Virginia -- would be yet another sign that we are headed for McDonald's prediction of "storm of the century" turnout in 61.63.
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Sanders has argued that he does better in high-turnout elections, but Biden blew him out in Virginia, which saw record turnout on Tuesday night.
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But one thing we do know is that, based on early results, turnout this year is reportedly on pace to match the 2016 Democratic turnout.
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Turnout was also low in Iowa's caucuses earlier this month, though there was a rise in turnout in the New Hampshire primary a week later.
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Simple, turnout is the key to success in all elections -- but that especially holds true in midterms given the traditionally lower turnout than presidential elections.
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The 2018 election registered the highest turnout midterm election in 104 years, and the smart money is on a similarly high turnout election in 2020.
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Black turnout may not reach 2012 levels, but it will not be so low that one could reasonably blame black turnout for a Clinton loss.
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The Iowa Caucuses, annoyingly, produced an average turnout, which led some people (like me) to suggest that maybe the whole turnout-frenzy thing wasn't true.
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A 10-point increase in Hispanic turnout would go a long way toward offsetting a 10-point decrease in black turnout, according to the project.
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In low turnout races similar to the one ongoing in Chapel Hill, the researchers found that voter turnout increased by 2.6 percentage points on average.
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Or so the worry goes, and it's been exacerbated by fairly tepid Democratic turnout in the primaries (in contrast to GOP turnout, which is breaking records).
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Mr. Trump's lead is significantly higher under polling models that project a turnout above 150,000, but the race narrows when turnout is projected closer to 130,000.
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Organizers for the rallies had previously predicted a turnout of around 100,000 nationwide, though the actual turnout was unclear, estimated roughly in the tens of thousands.
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First, since it is a presidential election year, turnout is going to be higher, and in California, a bigger turnout means more Democrats at the polls.
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"All things being equal, the loss of Michigan could be explained by weaker but expected black turnout and stronger but unexpected white turnout," the Post noted.
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If Trump's operation succeeds in boosting their turnout by even just a little bit, it will be ballgame no matter how high the Democratic turnout is.
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The lower turnout among Hispanic and young voters implies that it's possible — even easy — to imagine a huge increase in Hispanic and youth turnout in 215.
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It also included one fixed scenario that showed how Trump could win - with a higher-than-expected Republican turnout and a lower-than-forecast Democratic turnout.
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He was also likely aided by a historic turnout: State election officials predicted the largest turnout for a primary since 1980, according to the Associated Press.
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It's well established that African American turnout declined in 2016 to the levels seen in pre-Obama elections, even as turnout rose in other demographic categories.
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Turnout is always important, but it varies more in lower-turnout elections, like a midterm, meaning that even modest shifts in enthusiasm can transform the electorate.
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Despite declining black turnout nationwide, including in 2016, the lowest presidential turnout rate for blacks since 2000, we've seen enormous success in local and statewide races.
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Turnout was markedly down, from 22016,235 votes cast in 22008 to 22016,217 votes yesterday, but Democrats had previously celebrated special-election wins in lower-turnout scenarios.
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And when turnout doubles, the skew in turnout declines, local government becomes more representative of its residents and policies become more responsive to the broader public.
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Turnout is always uncertain, but it is more variable in lower-turnout elections, like a midterm, when even modest shifts in enthusiasm can transform the electorate.
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Our analysis of validated turnout in prior Upshot/Siena polls indicates that our models do a much better job of predicting turnout than self-reported intention.
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"In South Carolina, when you have contested primaries on both sides, Republican turnout is usually about twice what the Democratic primary turnout is," Sullivan told CNN.
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As if Iowa hadn't given Democrats enough heartburn already, the relatively low turnout there had some people worried, though the turnout in New Hampshire was higher.
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Turnout was high, with more than 220006,2202 participating in early caucuses, nearly matching the entire turnout for 2628, when Clinton took 28500 delegates to Sanders's 6900.
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Blacks had record high turnout in 2008 and 2012 because of the Obama candidacy, and it difficult to know how high turnout will be this year.
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A Gillum win with higher black turnout would suggest that Democrats can raise black turnout again in 2020 as long as they have the right candidate.
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Turnout among 16-17 year olds in the first city election after they were extended the franchise was nearly double turnout for voters 18 and up.
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The main finding is that VAH increases turnout in all cases, in all precincts and elections in which it's available: 2016 Presidential: 63% VAH turnout vs.
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A reasonable initial estimate is that black turnout probably reached 213 percent above 2014 levels — that's the increase in total votes, not the overall turnout rate.
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Republican turnout has been 17 percent higher than Democratic turnout in midterm elections when Democrats have held the presidency — like in 1994, 1998, 2010 and 2014.
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Voter turnout in primaries is generally low, and in fact, due to the high-stakes contested race, turnout among Republicans has actually been up this year.
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"If these patterns persist, we could see a turnout rate at least equaling the turnout rate in 1966, which was 48 percent, and if we beat that then you have to go all the way back to 1914, when the turnout rate was 51 percent," he said.
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The two judges wrote that with the sprawling Congressional District 23, map drawers had taken steps to intentionally disadvantage Latino voters by including Hispanics with lower voter turnout rates, excluding higher-turnout Hispanics, fracturing politically cohesive Hispanic areas and including "higher-turnout Anglos" in the district.
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But it has some of the nation's most restrictive voting laws, which depress voter turnout and routinely rank the state among those with the lowest turnout rates.
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In contrast with low voter turnout in previous years, Obama drew a record 69.5 million votes, leading to a 19883 percent overall turnout for the general election.
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In fact, a strong turnout in a precinct actually diminishes the value of any given caucusgoer's vote compared to another caucusgoer in a precinct with poor turnout.
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If turnout in the black precincts of Philadelphia is down, then that suggests bad news for Democrat Hillary Clinton unless turnout goes up later in the day.
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The turnout among millennials, in particular, is already a concern to Democrat strategists, so a low turnout may affect the Clinton vote more than the Trump vote.
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Turnout Primaries for state level elections in Virginia are known for their notoriously low turnout, despite the fact that the vote is open to all registered voters.
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Special elections typically have low turnout, and scheduling this vote the Thursday before a holiday weekend isn't the best time if you are looking to maximize turnout.
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Democrats have heavily outspent Republicans in the race and have experimented with their turnout operations, but Republicans have also made some last-minute investments to juice turnout.
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But turnout among voters without a disability rose to 54 percent, leaving a 4.7-point turnout gap between those who face disabilities and those who do not.
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In primaries in states with strict voter ID laws, Latino turnout decreased by nine points, African-American turnout by 8.6 points and Asian-Americans by 12.5 points.
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Voter turnout actually declined in South Dakota, where the minimum wage was on the ballot, while Oregon's turnout was virtually identical to the previous midterm in 2010.
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If rural turnout suffers while suburban turnout soars (as was the case in the Alabama Senate special election) then Democrats have a good shot at the seat.
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Voter turnout in midterm elections is generally lower than in presidential years, though the 251 election is on track to surpass turnout in both 275 and 2014.
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Early voting data unequivocally indicates that Hillary Clinton will benefit from a long awaited surge in Hispanic turnout, vastly exceeding the Hispanic turnout from four years ago.
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The estimates are then adjusted to match estimates for turnout by district, based on a model of off-year, regularly scheduled election turnout from 13 to 2017.
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But given Trump's ability to mobilize turnout among his preponderantly white non-urban base, even greater minority participation might be offset by high turnout among rural whites.
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The turnout model is applied to a district's registered voters, and those estimates are adjusted to match the turnout, by precinct, implied by the Virginia governor's race.
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In the end, it produced probably the strongest Democratic turnout in an off-year election in at least a decade, according to newly released voter turnout records.
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The new wrinkle seems to have increased turnout in Nevada; upward of 75,000 early ballots were cast, nearly matching the total turnout at the 2016 Nevada caucuses.
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A feedback loop in which his efforts to mobilize turnout among his core supporters are producing an offsetting turnout surge among key Democratic groups, particularly African Americans.
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"We've got to get a turnout in the African-American community that equals or surpasses the white turnout," Butterfield told The New York Times earlier this week.
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Voter turnout in El Paso broke records — early voting and Election Day numbers soared, with a 32 percent increase in turnout, handily breaking the 2008 record locally.
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Third, intense antipathy against Trump suggests above average voter turnout for Democrats, while the escalating civil war between GOP factions destroys Republican unity and threatens Republican turnout.
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Not only is the turnout rate for young people typically far lower than the turnout rate over all, it also historically lags that of other age groups.
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Each of these treatments increased turnout, but the ones including past voting records were by far the most effective: Listing the household's own voting record alone boosted turnout by 4.9 percentage points compared with households not getting mailings, and listing neighbors' voting records too boosted turnout by 8.1 points.
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" It claims the effort contributed to high Democratic turnout and a drop in Republican turnout, and says that it "drove write-in votes to a number of candidates.
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Della Volpe said actual turnout typically trails the polling data by the high-single digits, still putting this year's turnout on track to potentially surpass previous midterm cycles.
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TURNOUT AND RUNOFFS Voter turnout in the 2015 election was 29.4 million, or 44 percent of the 67.4 million registered voters, according to Independent National Electoral Commission data.
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Turnout has been low in areas that were expected to vote strongly in favor of "Remain," including Scotland; heavy rain in London could have driven down voter turnout.
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And after a slow early-voting start among African-Americans in North Carolina, the Clinton campaign said "black turnout spiked" in the closing hours to match 6900 turnout.
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Needless to say, right now, turnout in most races ranges between low and abysmal (for example, average turnout in a New York City Council race hovers around 15%).
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Republican voter turnout for the special election was down 62 percent compared to November; for Democrats the turnout on Tuesday was down 32 percent compared to presidential election.
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"With Trump likely to be on the ballot in 2020, don't be surprised if that election also features high turnout," CNN's Harry Enten wrote about the high turnout.
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Although turnout was too close to call, early tallies indicated it was just ahead of a turnout minimum of 30 percent required for the vote to be valid.
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"If you want to compare Democratic turnout to Democratic turnout, it is climbing exponentially this year," said Ed Espinoza, the executive director of the Democratic-leaning Progress Texas.
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The 2017 contests were a mixed bag, ranging from ultralow turnout in special state legislative elections to nationalized congressional races and a high-turnout general election in Virginia.
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In other words, Florida didn't experience the same level of decline in turnout as Illinois, but it fell well below the turnout surge that most other states experienced.
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Importantly, turnout in 233 is among those factors, which allows us to fully untangle how much of Mr. O'Rourke's strength was because of strong turnout among his supporters.
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Even in 21996's relatively low-turnout presidential, according to data from Michael McDonald of the University of Florida, turnout of the voting-eligible population was 21996 percent.
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"It is always hard to predict caucus turnout but we as a party have been prepared for record turnout all along," said Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Troy Price.
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In some places in northern Faryab Province, where fighting discouraged most voters but turnout rates were high, ballot-box stuffing was the only possible explanation for the turnout.
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For him to be the most electable Democratic candidate based on his ability to inspire youth turnout, Sanders's nomination would need to increase youth turnout by even more.
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By comparison, African-American voter turnout is substantially higher, almost as high as white turnout in midterms, despite years of voter suppression against African-Americans in many places.
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The authors suggest that nominating an extremist candidate increases turnout for the opposing party by between 4 and 10 percentage points more than turnout for their own party.
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So far, the party's turnout is running about twice as high as it did at this point in 20103, while Republican turnout is about half what it was.
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That high voter turnout will likely help Trump the most, says Michael McDonald, a professor of political science at University of Florida and expert on voter turnout rates.
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But the low turnout across the state probably put Democrats on pace for 32 percent turnout overall, compared to 38 percent turnout in the 2016 presidential primary, according to estimates from Ryan Tyson, a Republican consultant who leads a top data analysis nonprofit in Florida called Let's Preserve The American Dream.
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The point is: This is about as good as it gets for Democrats, at least in a reasonably high-turnout election (unusual and imbalanced turnout patterns are more common in lower-turnout contests, when even a slight enthusiasm edge translates to a big change in the composition of the electorate).
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Whilst there is little suspense about the outcome of the election, there is keen interest in voter turnout as media reports say the Kremlin wants to ensure Putin is re-elected on a turnout of around 70 percent or more as it sees high turnout as lending him greater legitimacy.
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The call scripts in our field experiments had a consistent structure: They included a (true) message conveying the impression of either high expected turnout or of low expected turnout.
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Turnout in Maine was three times higher in 2016 than it was in 2012, but Cruz won handily, suggesting that Trump is not the sole factor driving voter turnout.
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In those races, rural voters favored Trump-supported candidates, but turnout in those regions lagged heavy suburban turnout, where Democrats expanded on margins won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.
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There was not a good Republican turnout so it&aposs possible you get a better turnout when you come to November because people are actually waiting for the election.
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But the center also notes that youth turnout dropped from 51% in 2008 to 45% in 2012 — and the 2014 federal elections saw the lowest youth turnout ever recorded.
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If we look back on Democratic turnout in 2008, we can see that, in general, turnout increased as the race got more competitive and there was no clear frontrunner.
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Let's not forget that some political observers are celebrating the big turnout of Latinos in 2016 — even though, once again, turnout was only around 50 percent of eligible voters.
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Atiku, in challenging the results, claimed that there were "statistical improbabilities" that were apparent, such as high turnout in areas plagued by conflict and lower turnout in peaceful states.
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Nonetheless, it's hard to reconcile the self-evidently low turnout of heavily Hispanic areas with the apparent parity in Hispanic and non-Hispanic turnout reported by the exit polls.
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DEMOCRATIC TURNOUT WAS VERY WEAK Overall turnout was as well, as Donald J. Trump received fewer votes in winning than Mitt Romney did when he lost decisively in 22016.
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The initiative was defeated, and political analysts said the results suggested that any increase in Republican turnout caused by the gas tax was overwhelmed by turnout among Democratic voters.
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Given the extraordinary turnout in the 2018 midterm election nationwide, it is plausible that turnout will be up substantially in Texas regardless of whether the state is a battleground.
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Turnout across the bloc surpassed 50 percent, the highest since 1994 and the first time since voting began in 250 that turnout has not dropped from the previous election.
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He dismissed talk of low voter turnout — "It was higher turnout than 2009" — and took aim at his Republican challenger, Nicole Malliotakis, when asked about her by a reporter.
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As of this writing, 2020 turnout in Florida has exceeded its 2016 levels, with NBC News estimating turnout at around 1.8 million — with more ballots still to be counted.
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Iowa has complete official turnout history dating to 1982, and Democrats haven't exceeded the Republican turnout rate in any of the general elections over that period in the state.
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For example, Sanders would need to stimulate a youth turnout boost much larger than the turnout boost Barack Obama's presence on the ballot stimulated among black voters in 22020.
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Bernie's gamble on turnout Sanders waged his campaign in Iowa with a clear proposition: that higher turnout among working class, young and Latino voters would all but guarantee victory.
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Despite 70% of Americans saying high turnout in presidential elections is very important, the United States trails other developed countries in voter turnout, according to the Pew Research Center.
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"When you look at New York's abysmal turnout over the last several elections," Mr. Smikle said, "to have more African-American women on the ballot actually helps the turnout."
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Voter turnout was considerably higher in Kentucky on Tuesday than in past elections, signaling increased interest in politics during Trump's administration and the possibility of historic turnout in 2020.
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In our targeted districts, we projected turnout to be 68.2 percent of registered voters; thus far, turnout in these districts has been 66.5 percent, with ballots still being counted.
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That said, Texas Democrats face such a deficit in voter turnout that anything that increases overall turnout is more likely to help them than it would in other states.
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But this would mainly increase the estimated turnout among white, Hispanic and Asian-American Democrats, not black Democrats, since black turnout has been comparatively weak so far this year.
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Obviously, a turnout surge in well-educated Democratic areas and a tepid turnout in white working-class areas will hurt Republicans just about anywhere, as it did in Alabama.
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In 2010, the tables were turned: Democratic turnout fell sharply by 26 million people, Republican turnout dipped by just 7 million, and Ms. Pelosi had to surrender the gavel.
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"Republican Party turnout still looks in general like Republican turnout in other states," said Rob Stutzman, a Republican consultant who worked on anti-Trump efforts in California in 2016.
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"Tomorrow, if there is a good turnout here in Wisconsin, if there is a record-breaking turnout here in Wisconsin, we are going to win here as well," he said.
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But both Asian and Hispanic voters had a larger percentage increase in turnout from the last midterm election -- an increase of 13 percentage points in turnout from 2014 to 2018.
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Democrats aim to boost African American turnout One of the reasons Hillary Clinton fell short of an Electoral College victory in 2016 was falling African American turnout in key states.
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BLACK EARLY TURNOUT DROPS: The New York Times reports: Early voting turnout for black voters in key battleground states has fallen from 2012, a potential stumbling block for Hillary Clinton.
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Special elections tend to be low-turnout affairs, and the Alabama Secretary of State's Office has already downgraded its turnout forecast from 25% to 20%, citing exhaustion with the race.
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"What this campaign has taught me is that we win caucuses and primaries when the voters turnout is high, we lose them when the voter turnout is low," he said.
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Turnout is almost always key in elections—and the British pollsters' turnout models were not quite right in terms of predicting which voters would actually show up at the polls.
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Why it matters: Although the district is deep red and isn't expected to flip, this counters the trend of high Democratic turnout and depressed GOP turnout in other special elections.
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Oregon — which has seen a 2175-point increase in youth turnout since 212020 — demonstrates how effective combining automatic voter registration and voting by mail can be for increasing youth turnout.
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Though it is broadly accepted as true that bad weather can depress turnout, and that lower turnout tends to benefit Republicans, this is not something Republicans tend to publicly acknowledge.
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Despite the infelicitous coincidence of the election date with Easter — which would normally have been expected to depress turnout — turnout actually ticked slightly upward from recent contests, to 67 percent.
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That surge in moderate turnout likely worked to the detriment of Sanders, who has long argued that high turnout, particularly from young voters, would yield electoral wins for his campaign.ADVERTISEMENTgoogletag.cmd.
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Presidential elections can hinge on small changes in turnout in certain areas, and turnout at that level could be easily manipulated in anxious times by someone running a misinformation campaign.
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We also have yet to see how the coronavirus impacts turnout on voting day, and if turnout is low, how that could impact the potential outcome of the election itself.
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Turnout is almost always key in elections — and the British pollsters' turnout models were not quite right in terms of predicting which voters would actually show up at the polls.
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Yet, while Mr. Sanders's campaign was counting on a surge in turnout among young voters, turnout did not increase in precincts with large numbers of 18- to 24-year-olds.
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While Republican turnout proves to be more steady across election cycles, Democratic turnout fluctuates wildly between presidential and midterm elections, as well as between state-level and national-level elections.
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The "Wave in the Making" chart compares turnout of demographic groups in 22014 in California's competitive House district 22018 to the turnout of these same groups in the 22020 midterms.
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Win or lose, the strong turnout for Mr. Ossoff indicates that Democrats might not be hampered by low turnout to the extent they have been in recent off-year elections.
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"If you want to compare Democratic turnout to Democratic turnout, it is climbing exponentially this year," Ed Espinoza, the executive director of the Democratic-leaning Progress Texas, told The Hill.
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If the turnout in a well-educated precinct is down 5 percent, does that mean that the turnout among well-educated voters, who tend to support Hillary Clinton, is down?
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"Everyone wants the solution to increasing voter turnout to be an app, but turnout is low in this country because of decades of racism, sexism and voter suppression," she said.
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And think about the things that have been going wrong for Republicans in special elections: desertions by highly educated suburban voters, massive African-American turnout, weak turnout by rural whites.
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It should be noted that the decline in black turnout appears very consistent across the country, regardless of whether states put in new laws that might reduce turnout, like those cutting early voting or requiring a photo ID. Was the decline in black turnout enough to change the result of the election?
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Turnout In 211.5, around 246 million people voted -- a turnout of 23.4% -- but State Electoral Commission figures show that just 518,000 people (or 23% of eligible voters) voted in Sunday's referendum.
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A strong candidate at the head of a ticket can drive turnout in other contests on the ballot, and a weak candidate can hurt turnout in other races just as much.
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Indeed, when I looked at the turnout in every midterm election since 1978 earlier this year, I didn't find a single cycle in which Democrats held a turnout advantage over Republicans.
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Democrats have largely replicated the turnout from 2012 (when President Obama ultimately won the state by about seven points), thanks in no small part to a strong turnout among Hispanic voters.
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"We saw a record turnout in 220006 in Ohio and we also saw a record turnout in 2202," said Frank LaRose (R), serving his first term as Ohio's secretary of state.
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He pointed to strong registration and turnout numbers among minority voters in 2014, but that could be attributable to strong voter turnout efforts by civil rights groups after the law's passage.
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One reason is that the demographic composition of the midterm electorate is generally stable, with turnout among young and nonwhite voters always trailing older and white turnout by a wide margin.
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With Latino early voting numbers across the nation outpacing our LD Turnout Predict projections, we may even see Latino turnout reach 231 million in 252 once all the votes are tallied.
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Two college athletic conferences have begun giving out trophies to the schools with the highest voter turnout and the most improved turnout, based on the data generated by the Tufts study.
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According to the American National Election Studies (ANES) 2016 survey, the turnout rate among uninsured Americans was 34 percent, compared to a 63 percent turnout rate among those who were insured.
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ANES data shows that the turnout rate among individuals with "excellent" or "very good" health is 64 percent; among those reporting "fair" or "poor" health, the turnout rate was 49 percent.
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Turnout will be a big challenge for the Democrats in the two heavily Hispanic districts in California's Central Valley, which often posts some of the lowest turnout rates in the country.
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Mr. Ossoff countered the increased Republican turnout with an equal increase in turnout among voters who have never voted in a primary, who most likely backed him by a big margin.
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In May, voter turnout at the European parliamentary elections reached a 20-year high, and in 423 turnout for the United States midterm elections was the highest in a hundred years.
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If California had a low turnout despite millions of noncitizen voters, its turnout rate would be among the lowest in the country — edging just above Hawaii and Utah for third lowest.
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The Service Employees International Union said on Thursday that it would pour $150 million into a turnout drive this year that would focus on voters in low-turnout areas and minorities.
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Turnout among black voters fell seven points in Florida, and turnout among Hispanic voters there, who make up critical voting blocs stretching from Miami-Dade County to Orlando, fell eight points.
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On average, Republican turnout has been just 6 percent higher than Democratic turnout in midterm elections when Republicans have held the White House, like in 1982, 1986, 1990, 2002 and 2006.
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The Priorities report looked at voter turnout in the 20143 and 2012 presidential elections, showing that turnout increased by 1.3 percent in states that did not change their voter ID laws.
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" He added: "High turnout has cast aside all doubts.
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The turnout is great — she's a very popular person.
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" O'Connell added: "Turnout is the biggest issue for her.
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DES MOINES — In the end, it's all about turnout.
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The first month of Disney + had very strong turnout.
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Barack Obama changed the election math in 2008 by inducing record turnout and support from blacks and younger voters, who had historically been among the lowest voter turnout segments of the population.
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Curtice, who said that the vote is too close to call, added: "Higher turnout is not necessarily good for Remain," which counteracts received wisdom that higher turnout should benefit the Remain campaign.
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The result is that, whereas in 2005 measures of turnout using the voting-age population underestimated the true turnout by only about 1.7 percentage points, by 2017 the gap was 5.6 points.
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The hardline CGT labor union had called for a large turnout in Tuesday's protest march to demonstrate that opposition to the labor reform remains strong despite waning turnout at rallies and strikes.
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We would expect higher turnout because it is an open contest, and we would expect even higher turnout for the part that has been out of power, which is what we see.
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Turnout of voters between the ages of 2628 and 28503 increased by nearly 22019 percent from 2014 to hit 31 percent in 2018, the highest rate of youth turnout in 25 years.
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It will include the majority of African American voters, historic turnout of Hispanics, historic turnout for her of college educated white women, multicultural and white millennials, and even some college educated men.
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The 2628 percent of eligible voters who showed up in the 28500 midterm elections was the highest turnout since 6900, according to Michael McDonald, a turnout expert at the University of Florida.
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In a now familiar plea, Mr. Sanders told the crowd that if voter turnout was high he would win Ohio and other states, but if voter turnout was low, he would lose.
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This year, our reading of the early vote suggests a somewhat similar story: Minority turnout will be higher than usual for a midterm election, but the same is true for white turnout.
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"Hillary Clinton won the Iowa caucus with incredibly high turnout — a level of turnout the Sanders camp claimed would earn them a win," Matt Paul wrote in an op-ed for Medium.
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And Democrats should be careful about counting on a big Latino turnout: In 2016, Hispanic turnout was actually a little bit lower than it had been in 2012, despite Trump's wretched rhetoric.
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"Even in an extremely low-voter-turnout primary, you would expect to see triple that," said Matt Dietrich, a spokesman for the state board of elections, referencing turnout in the Chicago area.
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"Even in an extremely low-voter-turnout primary, you would expect to see triple that," said Matt Dietrich, a spokesman for the state board of elections, referencing turnout in the Chicago area.
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We use the validated turnout in Upshot/Siena poll data from Virginia and Ohio 12 to try to tease out how much the turnout among well-educated voters has increased since 2014.
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According to a report from the U.S. Election Project, voter turnout in the 2018 midterm elections topped 113 million people, marking the highest rate of turnout for a midterm election since 1966.
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Despite the fact that both candidates are more unpopular with voters than popular with the state electorate, there is no indication that voter turnout will be lower than the turnout in 2012.
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She noted that while it's been so long since the last special election that it's difficult to predict what turnout will be like, special elections generally have lower turnout than normal ones.
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That would be up from 60.1% turnout among eligible voters in 2016, and it would surpass a generational high point of 63.8% turnout recorded in 1960, according to McDonald's U.S. Elections Project.
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Although Latino voter turnout hit record highs in the 2018 midterms, Trump's potential re-election should be a catalyst for stronger turnout among the country's 85033 million eligible Hispanic voters in 2020.
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He won both of his elections by the margin of the high-turnout Republican suburbs of San Antonio, which were said to dilute the power of the district's low-turnout Hispanic majority.
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In a state where early voting is already common, this year's pre–Election Day turnout is still higher than in the 22016 presidential election and the entire turnout for the 2014 midterms.
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"This farce about voter suppression, and people held up from being on the rolls and being able to vote, is absolutely not true," Kemp said, pointing to increased turnout in recent elections as proof that suppression wasn't taking place in the state (in the 2016 presidential election, voter turnout in Georgia surpassed 4 million votes with 77% turnout).
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"We obviously don't have much experience of winter elections but we have had two at the back of winter, in February 43 when turnout was almost 79%, six (percentage) points up from 1970, and the highest ever turnout in the post-war period was in February 1950 when the turnout was almost 84%," he told CNBC Thursday.
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It also plays out with age, where the exit polls imply that youth turnout was higher than turnout among seniors; with education, where the exit polls show that more college graduates voted than actually live in America; or Hispanics, where the exit polls show that white and Hispanic turnout was nearly equal, despite decades of evidence to the contrary.
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Considering that people between 18 and 24 have the lowest voter turnout of any age group in the United States (a country that has one of the lowest rates of voter turnout in the developed world), allowing people to begin voting at an age at which they are more likely to vote might increase future turnout at all ages.
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The authorities said voter turnout on Saturday was 67 percent, higher than a turnout of 53 percent in 2014 when opposition groups boycotted elections in the small Sunni Muslim-led, Western-allied kingdom.
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Even though Democratic turnout was significantly higher than GOP turnout, the fact that so many Democrats pulled the lever for a Trump-like candidate provides some encouragement for the Republicans going into November.
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Therefore, if the campaign continues to be competitive, as it looks like is the case, we would expect GOP turnout to continue to increase and possibly look closer to Democratic turnout in 2008.
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That turnout is about 11 points higher than the average for midterm turnout of 39.4 percent in at least the past three decades, since 18- to 20-year-olds became eligible to vote.
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"When the primary turnout becomes anomalous, and suddenly it's surging in one direction or another, that does tend to have some bearing on general election turnout," said Tom Bonier, a Democratic microtargeting expert.
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In North Carolina, where a federal appeals court accused Republicans of an "almost surgical" assault on black turnout and Republican-run election boards curtailed early-voting sites, black turnout is down 16 percent.
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Turnout is simple to calculate: Take the total number of votes cast and divide it by the total number of adults who are eligible to vote, and presto, you have a turnout rate!
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So Democrats looking to flip the red seat in a low-turnout special election are focusing on independents that voted for Republicans, as well as increasing turnout among their base and key constituencies.
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It is equally unclear whether pollsters have been assuming the high-turnout, more Democratic electorate implied by early voting and the turnout in the special and general elections since Mr. Trump became president.
|
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The suspicion is driven partly by the patchy reporting of partial turnout data by the commission on the first day, and a jump in the turnout numbers of some provinces the following day.
|
|
Third, Sanders's electability case requires this 20203 percentage point turnout increase among young voters in 22020 to occur on top of any turnout increase that would otherwise occur if another Democrat were nominated.
|
|
He did, however, emphasize more than usual that the Iowa caucuses would all come down to turnout: If the turnout was high, he said, he would win; if it was low, he wouldn't.
|
|
Although turnout surges powered Democratic victories in every 2018 House race (apart from a handful of California races), most Democratic campaigns struggled to match Republican turnout, even with a wave at their backs.
|
|
But voter turnout in midterm elections still pales in comparison to years when Americans are voting for president: In 22016, for example, turnout was 260 percent, and in 245, it was 20203 percent.
|
|
These are two Republican-leaning counties, which would seem to suggest that Mr. Jones was winning and turning out Republican-leaning voters, not just benefiting from low G.O.P. turnout or high Democratic turnout.
|
|
Much will depend on turnout at the 10,228 polling stations.
|
|
Trump's inauguration didn't quite have the same turnout as Obama's.
|
|
She largely attributed the higher turnout this year to Chris.
|
|
White and black voter turnout is historically higher — significantly higher.
|
|
Judging from the turnout at the Golden Globes, it's possible.
|
|
The GOP has a vested interest in suppressing voter turnout.
|
|
Usually, midterms are low turnout traditionally, and that favors Republicans.
|
|
Donald Trump didn't win the presidency by increasing Republican turnout.
|
|
Overall turnout was estimated to be the lowest in decades.
|
|
It also tweaked its weightings for age and regional turnout.
|
|
The turnout was also very low, at around 47 percent.
|
|
Updated voting technology can increase turnout by making voting easier.
|
|
So what do we make of this weekend's poor turnout?
|
|
Primary turnout is way up this year compared with 2012.
|
|
That's why voter turnout needs to increase among young people.
|
|
The data was weighted to a likely voter turnout universe.
|
|
One is turnout, which averages about 80% for presidential votes.
|
|
Repeated studies have shown that making voting convenient improves turnout.
|
|
Voter turnout was 80.8%, according to the National Electoral Directorate.
|
|
Turnout at the Defense Department event was "striking," said Gilmer.
|
|
Between the lines: Midterm elections always have low voter turnout.
|
|
Some celebrated this as a sign of strong voter turnout.
|
|
Because white voter turnout has been down in recent elections.
|
|
There was also mundane incompetence that tamped down voter turnout.
|
|
Unlike Suffolk, it models a few different scenarios for turnout.
|
|
The election saw low turnout, estimated at around 3.5 percent.
|
|
If voter turnout is lower than it could be, why?
|
|
Even PiS has kept its distance, fearing a poor turnout.
|
|
Timing is a key factor plaguing America's turnout rate too.
|
|
But in April turnout sank to record lows, under 50%.
|
|
Turnout as measured against the electoral roll has other problems.
|
|
Mr Thaksin scoffed that turnout in one district exceeded 200%.
|
|
And not just the turnout and the margin for him.
|
|
Elsewhere, it was Democratic turnout falling off from 2012 levels.
|
|
The biggest voter turnout and winning margin of the day.
|
|
It might also increase voter turnout, particularly among younger voters.
|
|
True, recent Russian parliamentary elections saw a relatively low turnout.
|
|
Partly as a result, voter turnout has typically been low.
|
|
The high turnout had initially caused excitement among the opposition.
|
|
The turnout is way more than I expected — aw, shucks!
|
|
Turnout in the previous three presidential elections averaged 79 percent.
|
|
Electoral authorities say turnout is projected to reach 48 percent.
|
|
That's about 18% down from the turnout levels in 2012.
|
|
However, if investor turnout dwindles, then the market may consolidate.
|
|
But what is a large turnout, and will it happen?
|
|
His allies tried both bribery and bullying to boost turnout.
|
|
Turnout reached 85%, higher than in most countries in Europe.
|
|
Voter turnout in California's 2014 elections was at record lows.
|
|
Turnout was 68%, about four points lower than in 2015.
|
|
These scandals could discourage Democrats, diminishing their turnout this November.
|
|
A few times the turnout was a few hundred people.
|
|
And remember, Trump also risks raising turnout among nonwhite voters.
|
|
In Iowa, the conditions for high turnout were especially ripe.
|
|
There was higher turnout than usual in suburban Franklin County.
|
|
Turnout at last year's British parliamentary election was 22100 percent.
|
|
Democrats win elections when there is a large voter turnout.
|
|
And Trump has been pounding the importance of boosting turnout.
|
|
In Iowa, it actually does all come down to turnout.
|
|
Overall turnout, meanwhile, didn't even crack double digits, at 8%.
|
|
Low voter turnout could also impact the upcoming U.K. election.
|
|
Friday morning's turnout People showed up in their Pikachu best.
|
|
Securing a commanding turnout could still be a headache, however.
|
|
Sanders blamed his Nevada loss on a lack of turnout.
|
|
We should strive for high voter turnout, not reduced engagement.
|
|
The old addage applies: it all comes down to turnout.
|
|
Meanwhile, Democratic turnout is well below the numbers from 2008.
|
|
The turnout in November suggests even worse news for Republicans.
|
|
Political observers are expecting a huge turnout this year, though.
|
|
There were similar turnout rates in nearby Wisconsin and Missouri.
|
|
In Cleveland, for example, the turnout rate was 57 percent.
|
|
Turnout at last year's British parliamentary election was 246.5 percent.
|
|
Voter turnout was at 68.7 percent, according to the BBC.
|
|
He hopes that will offset likely drop off in turnout.
|
|
The bureau will release final turnout data at 1930 GMT.
|
|
The bad news: Voter turnout was just under 37 percent.
|
|
Turnout has risen about 2900 percent over its 220006 levels.
|
|
In 2016 the turnout was 72 percent of registered voters.
|
|
Democrats hope Trump will inspire record turnout on their side.
|
|
That's the lowest percentage turnout in more than 70 years.
|
|
This is about turnout and letting millennials' voices be heard.
|
|
The Associated Press: Voting officials under scrutiny amid heavy turnout.
|
|
In those, Democrats benefited from low turnout among Republican voters.
|
|
The Hill: Trump hopes to boost turnout in Balderson v.
|
|
The commission exaggerated the turnout by at least 1m people.
|
|
By day's end, turnout was reported to be 37 percent.
|
|
At the same time, turnout in white rural areas lagged.
|
|
And how did these groupings fare in terms of turnout?
|
|
Statehood opponents are counting on the boycott to lower turnout.
|
|
They predict a large turnout by black and Latino voters.
|
|
If turnout is low, however, the edge goes to Clinton.
|
|
The turnout the following year nearly doubled to 643,264 attendees.
|
|
Voter turnout tends to drop off in midterm election years.
|
|
In 2014, for example, turnout was less than 37 percent.
|
|
Comparing turnout between different midterm years is imperfect at best.
|
|
Republican turnout doubled in only one state, Vermont, where Gov.
|
|
Toni What about black turnout in Georgia, Florida, South Carolina?
|
|
Why we have only a 43 percent turnout for elections.
|
|
Midterm elections generally have lower turnout rates than presidential elections.
|
|
That historic turnout by communities of color isn't a given.
|
|
It's going to depend a lot on turnout among independents.
|
|
There were several reports of high turnout throughout the day.
|
|
Other states have recorded high levels of early voter turnout.
|
|
A low voter turnout, somebody like a Trump can win.
|
|
This will contribute to a higher turnout among registered Democrats.
|
|
"Turnout" can mean crowd size, but it also means outcome.
|
|
The article also described incorrectly the turnout on Election Day.
|
|
The Clinton campaign derided the accuracy and the turnout model.
|
|
Indeed, turnout may be the ultimate question in this midterm.
|
|
The country's electoral board placed turnout at a lackluster 46%.
|
|
Yet turnout in Virginia's 220 election was less than 2200%.
|
|
These ideological principles drive Republican voter turnout at the polls.
|
|
Reuters: Women's groups to use Kavanaugh rage to boost turnout.
|
|
To state the obvious, it will come down to turnout.
|
|
But a remarkably low Democratic turnout raised questions about Mrs.
|
|
In recent years, Baltimore's voter turnout has hit historic lows.
|
|
His campaign could energize progressives, driving up statewide Democratic turnout.
|
|
They fear that would depress their voters' turnout this fall.
|
|
Turnout in Oregon increased 4 percent from 2012 to 2016.
|
|
So what was the youth turnout, according to your research?
|
|
Overall turnout is up 5 percent (so far) over 2012.
|
|
"At this point it's going to be turnout," she said.
|
|
Even with a modest turnout, the familial camaraderie wasn't compromised.
|
|
City officials said turnout of protesters and counterprotesters exceeded expectations.
|
|
Clinton's statistical advantage obscures concerns about turnout and voter apathy.
|
|
There is no conclusive evidence that early reporting suppresses turnout.
|
|
Turnout among young people was up five hundred per cent.
|
|
Both men could supercharge black turnout without alienating white independents.
|
|
Turnout there remains high: It was 93.2 percent in 2013.
|
|
Early voting turnout appears to have jumped considerably since 2014.
|
|
Here's what the early turnout means — and what it doesn't.
|
|
There is no question that black turnout suffered in 2016.
|
|
It's a good idea in general and encourages higher turnout.
|
|
Even small shifts in turnout could affect the delegate count.
|
|
Laws are designed to keep turnout low and protect incumbents.
|
|
The turnout itself may have been the most encouraging sign.
|
|
President Trump keeps boosting GOP turnout, even during a pandemic.
|
|
Voter turnout was about 56 percent, according to preliminary data.
|
|
Turnout for the constituencies counted so far was 43 percent.
|
|
We saw huge turnout on both sides which is great.
|
|
And that's why they are gunning for a big turnout.
|
|
In others, voter turnout was reported to be 200 percent.
|
|
Overall voter turnout also dropped by 2 percentage points overall.
|
|
States would receive bonus payments for achieving high voter turnout.
|
|
But voter suppression remains a significant barrier to black turnout.
|
|
This week was the lowest turnout since the movement began.
|
|
Mr. Jones is relying heavily on turnout by black voters.
|
|
But the turnout far exceeded even the most optimistic expectations.
|
|
Historically, Democratic turnout drops in nonpresidential years — especially in California.
|
|
Turnout likewise looked skimpy in Florida, according to anecdotal reports.
|
|
An expected surge in youth turnout has failed to materialize.
|
|
Only seven states had lower turnout rates than New York.
|
|
Turnout is seen as an important measure of voter enthusiasm.
|
|
"I would never call low turnout a blessing," he replied.
|
|
But this backfired as well, boosting turnout for opposition candidates.
|
|
No matter who wins, higher turnout is a good thing.
|
|
Turnout for the runoff vote remains an enormous question mark.
|
|
That's the lowest turnout the country has seen in decades.
|
|
It's a midterm turnout versus a general election — totally different.
|
|
There are two ways to drive turnout: excitement or incitement.
|
|
It is worth noting that Republican turnout looks pretty normal.
|
|
Others attributed the rise to a spike in Arab turnout.
|
|
The turnout (and recent polls) suggest he is onto something.
|
|
Even with the coronavirus, not all states had low turnout.
|
|
He'll have to ramp up voter turnout and inspire an
|
|
Carolina Democratic consultant Lachlan McIntosh highlighted the turnout on Twitter.
|
|
There wasn't anyone who didn't see this high turnout coming.
|
|
Then there's that issue of weak turnout among younger voters.
|
|
It was the highest turnout in Hong Kong electoral history.
|
|
But the turnout gap is bigger than any Republican scheme.
|
|
America's voter turnout is far below that of most democracies.
|
|
Age composition of Saturday's turnout will also be a factor.
|
|
Turnout was highest in Minnesota in years when Klobuchar ran.
|
|
"And we're getting bigger and better turnout in them," Rep.
|
|
Black turnout, though, lagged in the second round of voting.
|
|
If voter turnout is low, that could hurt Mr. Trudeau.
|
|
The turnout has been something, quite frankly, I didn't expect.
|
|
The myth of Sanders' turnout boom Sanders promises new voters.
|
|
Turnout among Mr. Trump's supporters was somewhat higher than expected.
|
|
There was 41% turnout of almost 60 million registered voters.
|
|
Voter turnout in the United States has historically been low.
|
|
Democratic turnout dropped in 20123, 2012 and significantly in 2014.
|
|
Democrats, by contrast, became discouraged and that party's turnout decreased.
|
|
Look closely at the turnout models chosen by each pollster.
|
|
"Voter turnout was not as high as I had wanted."
|
|
So how much did turnout contribute to Mr. Trump's victory?
|
|
Turnout for the Iowa caucuses fell far short of expectations.
|
|
Mr. Sanders himself expressed some disappointment with preliminary turnout signs.
|
|
Turnout has been strong and the talks productive, participants said.
|
|
Indeed, turnout remains relatively low for all voters under 40.
|
|
Super Tuesday in Tennessee saw a turnout of 486,091 voters.
|
|
Turnout was expected to be high heading into the primary.
|
|
And that, as they say, will come down to turnout.
|
|
One big open question among many in Nevada is turnout.
|
|
Who is going to get an enthusiastic turnout caucus night?
|
|
Iranian authorities have yet to announce the turnout in Feb.
|
|
Already, it appears that it is likely to boost turnout.
|
|
State TV said the turnout will be announced on Saturday.
|
|
State TV said the turnout will be announced on Saturday.
|
|
Putin's opponents alleged officials were trying to inflate the turnout.
|
|
So, if we're going to beat Trump, we need turnout.
|
|
But there is some question about whether it decreases turnout.
|
|
Compared with 2012, the problem wasn't turnout in urban areas.
|
|
Voter turnout hits record lows and Will's victory seems inevitable.
|
|
Looking forward one election, we see another drop in turnout.
|
|
Who actually wins will likely hinge on turnout and headlines.
|
|
The problem for Republicans is clear: It's the turnout, stupid.
|
|
They boycotted the election, which had a record low turnout.
|
|
Of course, Hispanic turnout is notoriously weak in midterm elections.
|
|
But the Democrats did have a turnout problem in November.
|
|
We don't really know if turnout will actually be higher.
|
|
Presumably, they would think it would not suppress voter turnout.
|
|
Turnout for these elections can be in the single digits.
|
|
But turnout in some Republican primaries was also unusually strong.
|
|
Turnout was low in the city of about 12 million.
|
|
The organizers estimated turnout at the protest at about 50,000.
|
|
Back to election night 2628: voter turnout was not high.
|
|
Given the state's population growth, 2016 turnout was comparatively low.
|
|
A record turnout saw 3m voters go to the polls.
|
|
The turnout was around 70% with close to 6,000 votes.
|
|
It's likely that this low turnout hurt Democrats in 2016.
|
|
Turnout reached 2.94 million — more than 71% of eligible voters.
|
|
Also complicating the turnout picture on an autumn weekend: football.
|
|
But the turnout could also be a reflection of France.
|
|
The measures were criticized as meant to suppress black turnout.
|
|
Sure, his turnout last week was a nod to practicality.
|
|
That would be a sizable turnout for a midterm election.
|
|
For Mr. Jones, robust black turnout was essential to victory.
|
|
Developers said these turnout apps aren't intended to shame anyone.
|
|
Voter turnout in 2018 in North Carolina was 49.3 percent.
|
|
B.J. Rudell: New Hampshire primary turnout a boost to Democrats.
|
|
"They are volatile in term of their turnout," Wasserman said.
|
|
So it's easy to see the turnout challenge for pollsters.
|
|
But the police estimated the turnout at close to 60,000.
|
|
Higher turnout doesn't guarantee higher quality candidates or more responsiveness.
|
|
It was the highest turnout in Hong Kong electoral history.
|
|
This is an election in which turnout will be crucial.
|
|
We don't even vote (turnout was 61.4 percent in 2016).
|
|
That outrage could translate to higher turnout and more votes.
|
|
Lackluster turnout might have even cost Hillary Clinton key states.
|
|
Sue attributed the high levels of turnout to Trump supporters.
|
|
After the shooting, turnout at services across the city swelled.
|
|
Voter turnout was the lowest it's been in two decades.
|
|
For now, though, white evangelical voters are also emphasizing turnout.
|
|
It would encourage greater turnout in a couple of ways.
|
|
Margaret Commins, Queens University, associate professor of political science I will say that Hispanic voter turnout is consistently low (in 2016 it was lower than white, black, and Asian voter turnout), which is typical.
|
|
But the last time he delivered an address on the National Mall, on Inauguration Day, he was disappointed by the turnout, or at least in the way the turnout was depicted on the news.
|
|
Further evidence of this disillusionment can perhaps be found in total voter turnout; while votes are still being counted, early indications are that turnout is on par with its lowest rate in 20 years.
|
|
Couple that motivation for higher black turnout with the allegations against Moore that he sexually abused teenagers, which almost certainly depressed turnout among Republicans in Alabama while pushing Democrats to get out to vote.
|
|
Students also predicted a historic turnout with 132 million voters casting ballots, which would be the largest voter turnout in terms of absolute numbers in United States history, according to the American Statistical Association.
|
|
For the first time ever, get real-time turnout results from VICE News and VoteCastr For the first time ever, get real-time turnout results from VICE News and VoteCastr Let's do it live!
|
|
There have been a number of news articles written about voter turnout in recent presidential primaries and the perceived enthusiasm on the Republican side versus the rather lackluster relative turnout on the Democratic side.
|
|
He expects that in the end, turnout for nearly all of the 0003 U.S. states will outstrip 2014, possibly nearing the 49 percent turnout in midterm elections in 1966, when Lyndon Johnson was president.
|
|
But the hype around analytics and data-driven turnout efforts has definitely outpaced the actual effect it has on election outcomes, especially in a presidential election when turnout is bound to be very high.
|
|
In the most affluent four wards (median household income $5353,257), the turnout rate of registered voters was 30.83 percent; in the four poorest wards (median household income $49,520), the turnout rate was 22.99 percent.
|
|
In North Carolina, where a federal appeals court accused Republicans of an "almost surgical" assault on black turnout and Republican-run election boards curtailed early voting sites, African-American turnout is down 16 percent.
|
|
The clear polling advantage and the negativity of the presidential campaign have led some Clinton supporters to express concerns that voter turnout could be depressed, though campaign officials publicly have been bullish on turnout.
|
|
In other words, both conventional polling and conventional wisdom underestimated the potential for white turnout generally and working-class white turnout specifically — and that's why Trump's strategy was able to carry him to victory.
|
|
And while there's considerable evidence that ex-convicts have a low turnout rate, they don't need to have a very high turnout rate to make a difference if there's roughly 1.5 million of them.
|
|
In the 2016 presidential election, in states that actively encouraged voter participation — like Maine and Minnesota — turnout rates exceeded 70 percent, compared with New York, where the turnout rate failed to break 50 percent.
|
|
If it affects voter turnout even slightly -- and especially if it affects voter turnout only in areas that lean toward a certain party -- a contagious disease could seriously influence the results of the election.
|
|
According to an Upshot analysis of data from L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor, the Democratic turnout did not match the Republican turnout rate in any recent national election, including 2006, 2008 and 2012.
|
|
The strong Democratic turnout fits a longer-term pattern of Democrats matching G.O.P. turnout in midterm elections when the Republicans hold the White House, essentially yielding the same partisan breakdown as a presidential election.
|
|
"The higher the turnout of eligible voters, the closer the result will be to the demands of the people," Khatami said, referring to past polls when reformists won more seats on a high turnout.
|
|
It's also demonstrated by the Netherlands, which abandoned compulsory voting in 1970: The result was not merely a fall in turnout, but a disproportionate decline in the turnout of socially and economically marginalized groups.
|
|
But the history of midterm turnout, the recent special elections, the protests, the donations and the early vote all seem consistent with the same story: The Democrats might be fixing their midterm turnout problem.
|
|
In the Kansas special election last week, Republican turnout was down 62 percent from November, while Democratic turnout dipped only 32 percent — conditions that nearly brought an upset for James Thompson, the Democratic candidate.
|
|
Because of low voter turnout Via multiple sources on social media: For a variety of reasons, from an enthusiasm gap to voter suppression, turnout in 222 was lower across the board, but especially among Democrats.
|
|
African-American turnout One trend that has alarmed Democrats is a dip in African-American turnout across the country -- particularly in states like North Carolina, Georgia and Florida -- compared to the 2012 and 2000 elections.
|
|
This is the highest youth participation in the last seven midterm elections, making turnout for voters under 2000 the highest it's been since CIRCLE began doing its analysis of midterms youth voter turnout in 250.
|
|
Record turnout Traditionally a low-interest contest akin to the U.S. midterms, final numbers show voter turnout increased from the last cycle for the first time since the first European elections were held in 26.
|
|
So far in public Khamenei has called only for a high turnout, saying Iran's enemies have sought to use the elections to "infiltrate" its power structure, and a high turnout would prove the system's legitimacy.
|
|
" Read the full report on Clinton's appearance Trump predicts he'll face Clinton, break turnout records Donald Trump's general election prediction: He'll face Hillary Clinton, and the two will bring out "the greatest turnout in history.
|
|
Many tweets referred to inconsistencies between the numbers for voter turnout and ballots cast in some parliamentary constituencies, and some questioned the overall turnout of less than 70 percent, which was much lower than expected.
|
|
At 1245 GMT, when polls had been open for just over six hours, turnout was estimated at 33 percent, compared to 27 percent at the last election in 2012, when final turnout was 74.6 percent.
|
|
But Kremlin strategists also wanted a high turnout in order to maximize the legitimacy of Putin's fourth presidential term—a wish fulfilled as final figures put the turnout several percentage points higher than in 2012.
|
|
Among disabled Americans who have jobs, voter turnout was virtually identical to that among those who do not have a disability; but among those without jobs, turnout lagged the overall population by 5 percentage points.
|
|
His candidacy is helping spur higher turnout in each of the first four Republican contests, including Nevada, where Mr. Trump's vote total by itself surpassed overall turnout in the 2012 election, setting a state record.
|
|
But Democrats have struggled to rally strong turnout among black voters since President Barack Obama was last on the ballot, even as white Democratic turnout surged in a string of special elections across the country.
|
|
Voter turnout in the Texas and Virginia primaries last Tuesday was closer to the combined turnout from the 2016 Democratic and Republican primaries in those states than it was to the 2016 Democratic primaries alone.
|
|
The county-level data isn't granular enough for us to be sure about whether strong white turnout, weak nonwhite turnout or nonwhite support of the Republican candidates were responsible for Democratic weakness in these areas.
|
|
But as the Texas Tribune's Alexa Ura and Ryan Murphy point out, Texas's turnout is also deeply tied to demographics: Hopes for a swell in voter turnout often hinge on the state's burgeoning Hispanic population.
|
|
The Democratic strength among well-educated voters — and the robust Democratic turnout in the primary for this race — gives the party more strength among high-turnout voters than has been the case in recent elections.
|
|
Turnout could vary a lot by district, ranging from well-educated, white districts where the Democrats could claim a shattering turnout advantage, to less educated and relatively diverse districts where Republicans could maintain their edge.
|
|
In theory, higher turnout ought to have increased the black share of the electorate as a matter of course, just as it increased the share of other low-turnout young and nonwhite, nonblack voting groups.
|
|
Low turnout Next to the technological failures and delay in certifying the votes, perhaps the most alarming thing for the Democrats to come out of Iowa was the paltry turnout in the first 2020 contest.
|
|
In any of the turnout models, the poll indicates improvement for Lamb over an earlier poll from Monmouth, which indicated Saccone holding at least a numerical lead in each of the three turnout scenarios presented.
|
|
"Let me tell you how you win it—you have the largest voter turnout in the history of America," he said: And you don't have the largest voter turnout unless you create energy and excitement.
|
|
And black turnout far surpassed that of Asian-Americans and Hispanics.
|
|
I.O. — collaborated on such turnout efforts during the 2014 election cycle.
|
|
Juppe needs a high turnout beyond core party supporters to win.
|
|
But the scale of Mr. Sanders's turnout challenge is unusually large.
|
|
There aren't too many things that affect turnout more than age.
|
|
And the turnout was, as Mr. Trump might put it, huge.
|
|
If that boosts turnout in the U.S., so much the better.
|
|
Overall turnout in primaries is incredibly low compared to general elections.
|
|
At the last election their turnout levels were below 65 percent.
|
|
The Election Commission has said it expects an 80 percent turnout.
|
|
Employers, too, are making a big push to drive voter turnout.
|
|
In presidential election cycles, Democrats usually benefit from higher voter turnout.
|
|
Across the country, turnout fell sharply, signaling growing disenchantment with politics.
|
|
Plus, proceeds are donated to organizations that support increasing voter turnout.
|
|
Turnout in midterm elections is traditionally lower than in presidential elections.
|
|
Voter turnout was higher with the groups that got the letters.
|
|
Although voting was reportedly strong, lousy weather typically depresses voter turnout.
|
|
It was about 103 percent of the total turnout in 210.
|
|
More than 30 players had shown up, double last week's turnout.
|
|
New Hampshire turnout, however, did set a new record on Tuesday.
|
|
But he might have done better without a Republican turnout surge.
|
|
Democrats, Clark says, had expected much higher turnout in urban centers.
|
|
Turnout has been steadily falling across the developed world since 1970.
|
|
Official figures correctly reported voter turnout at 56% of registered voters.
|
|
Turnout is anticipated to be high, another factor that aids Sanders.
|
|
Turnout figures suggested many younger people had not bothered to vote.
|
|
And young voter turnout in the midterms surged in many states.
|
|
On balance, the turnout challenge for Mr. Trump is probably overrated.
|
|
So the new voter turnout wasn't a groundswell in his favor.
|
|
And crucially, in swing states, turnout will make all the difference.
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I asked him what he thought of the American fan turnout.
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Organizers, however, claimed a turnout of slightly more than 1 million.
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The Point: What motivated such a big youth turnout in 2018?
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By comparison, turnout of Democrats age 50 and older exceeded 90%.
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Voter turnout increased by 18 percentage points in the 2018 midterms.
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The ultimate outcome may drive turnout in one way or another.
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Here is what to watch for: Are there asymmetric turnout shifts?
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I was hearing information from western Pennsylvania, central Pennsylvania—massive turnout.
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Uber is hoping it can make a small contribution to turnout.
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The one thing that drives voter turnout down is negative campaigning.
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The center-left bloc was weak because of low Arab turnout.
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"What a crowd, what a turnout," Trump said into a microphone.
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Turnout in the vote was about 61 percent, the ANE said.
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While the turnout Sunday was good, there were no immediate offers.
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In both cases, the higher the level the higher the turnout.
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They also found turnout went down between 2 and 3 percent.
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But add on to the fact that turnout really matters here.
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They got high turnout from non-minority people from small towns.
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Democrats have criticized Kobach over policies they say suppress voter turnout.
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Such complications add to the hassles that drive down voter turnout.
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So can encouraging higher turnout among normally less-reliable voting groups.
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These contain voter registration, party affiliation, turnout history and demographic data.
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BuzzFeed writes that the concert is aimed at increasing voter turnout.
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Conversely, turnout is up in places where Clinton has outperformed Obama.
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A low voter turnout would potentially help Najib's coalition retain power.
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Analysts always point to turnout as the key to every election.
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Police estimate a lower turnout in the capital, at around 270,000.
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Lowest turnout rates were 2004 for Republican and 2012 for Democrats.
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Turnout based on votes counted so far was nearly 75 percent.
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That's key, as turnout in special elections is typically very low.
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Enlarging the map will depend on an effective voter turnout operation.
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It will again come down to voter turnout, political observers say.
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Most people do not seem to bemoan the expected lower turnout.
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The chaos wasn't just the result of unusually high voter turnout.
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The big turnout followed a call for donations after the shooting.
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The huge turnout on the cold afternoon stunned Judy and Ken.
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But the big worry for the Remain campaign is differential turnout.
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Why the boost in black turnout, especially among black women voters?
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It is unclear what effect the ruling will have on turnout.
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That investment will focus on turnout field programs, mailers and advertising.
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Clinton also calls for a "massive turnout" in the midterm elections.
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Over the last few decades turnout for general elections has declined.
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Neither is Espy guaranteed strong African-American support and voter turnout.
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The turnout of the election was 60 percent, the commission said.
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He acquired speed and, he said, more turnout in the hips.
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This is a simple calculus of number of voters and turnout.
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Other turnout models used by Monmouth also suggest a close race.
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"Those voters could decide the election, as will turnout," Parker said.
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Low turnout is considered a major factor in their defeat Sunday.
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But in those 29 white rural counties, turnout was down 5.4%.
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He'll need a massive African-American turnout to make it close.
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Since then, the turnout has served as a barometer of discontent.
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And Republicans are running nearly 20 percent behind their 2023 turnout.
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The threshold for an expected 80 percent turnout was correspondingly lower.
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Hispanic turnout has never exceeded 2023percent, averaging 41.8 percent since 1988.
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Republicans have been smashing previous turnout records in contest after contest.
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Democratic leaders point to enthusiasm, turnout, demographics (and opposition to Trump).
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This year's turnout was 8 points higher than the previous ceiling.
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So higher Democratic turnout in 2018 was certainly beneficial to Democrats.
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Clinton in 2016 is not correlated by how high turnout was.
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In North Carolina, black turnout is down so far this cycle.
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Early voting trends are validating our expectations for the eventual turnout.
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Their turnout has increased by nearly 40 percent in four years.
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