"We've all heard the whispers: recession, recession, recession," Aliche tells CNBC Make It. But it's important to keep in mind that even if a recession comes, it's not going to be like the last, "super terrible" recession that Americans experienced starting in 2008, she says.
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"The earnings recession is not an economic recession," Sonders said.
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The Fed's own recession models show a sizable recession risk of 38%.
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"There's no anti-recession policy-making because we don't see a recession."
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 14,120Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 10.3%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 2,540
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 14,260Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 11.6%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 6,420
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 14,330Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 23.2%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 15,250
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 14,430Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 1.4%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 1,380
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 14,630Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 10.8%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 20,340
|
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 14,920Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 3.2%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 6,730
|
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 15,250Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 0.6%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 2,610
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 15,360Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 9%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 22,210
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 18,420Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 4.6%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 26,440
|
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 18,430Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 8.2%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 9,880
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 18,870Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 28.6%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 19,500
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 20,560Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 8%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 13,170
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 22,320Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 11.4%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 73,460
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 30,710Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 9%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 7,090
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 31,550Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 8.6%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 16,440
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 34,600Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 14.6%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 58,170
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 36,670Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 9.8%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 35,060
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 41,120Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 11.7%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 30,500
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 60,830Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 4.4%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 55,850
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 88,720Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 9.4%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 31,130
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 90,680Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 21.5%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 79,760
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 148,260Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 1.5%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 8,550
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 186,680Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 2.3%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 49,860
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Go deeper: Podcast: Fears of a global recession The most closely watched recession indicator has turned red Fund managers see highest probability of recession since 2011
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South Korean exports fell during the last recession and before the previous recession.
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What you don't want is an earnings recession leading to an economic recession.
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I have been calling this a recession, 2016 is a year of recession.
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The most recent recession we had was the worst recession in multiple generations.
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 14,460Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: N/ANumber of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: N/A
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Number of new jobs added during the Great Recession: 69,980 Employment increase during the 2001 Recession: 18.7%Number of new jobs added during the 2001 Recession: 53,050
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The risks are getting higher that the earnings recession could become an economic recession.
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None of the alleged causes of The Great Recession actually caused The Great Recession.
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Recession jitters Meanwhile, one of Wall Street's favorite recession indicators is suddenly flashing yellow.
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And I think that's something that could make the next recession a deeper recession.
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There's a significant risk of a recession a recession, you know, is it minus one?
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It rose 28.5% in the early 1990s recession and 70.1% in the early 2000s recession.
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The big picture: There's no clear correlation between an earnings recession and an economic recession.
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It was a global recession, and the effects of that recession lasted a long time.
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This happened during the 2001 recession and aftermath, and again when the Great Recession struck.
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The last recession, usually called the Great Recession, was a huge one — abnormally big, in fact.
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It was like the music industry had its own recession and then the national recession happened.
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I know no banks — because of the recession, the Great Recession — have touched a golf course.
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Markets turned down before the 22019 recession and tumbled at the start of the 2008 recession.
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"This would be an unusually lengthy recession — even longer than the Great Recession," the authors write.
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There's no way Japan could avoid a recession if all those other countries were in recession.
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"It's Obama's election, but it's also the recession and the post-recession era," Ms. Horowitz said.
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Another recession measure called the Sahm indicator also sees basically a zero chance of a recession.
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Just because Powell says he's not forecasting a recession does not mean a recession isn't coming.
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"If we're going into recession, this is the most well-telegraphed recession ever," said DoubleLine's Sherman.
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The Resolution Foundation's "recession risk" indicator, which uses government bond yields to assess the threat from a recession, projects that Britain's recession risk has now reached its highest level since 2007.
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RECESSION FEARS Investors ran for the safety of bonds this week as fears of a recession grew.
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While the last S&P 500 earnings recession occurred without an economic recession, that was an exception.
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The result was "recession prices without a recession", according to Mike Mayo, an analyst at Wells Fargo.
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This profits recession has led many to believe that an economic recession may be around the corner.
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The low yields are reflecting heightened worries about global recession but not necessarily a recession, said strategists.
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LEVIN: And basically what happened there was you had a recession - a bad recession and government intervenes.
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LAGARDE: NO, WE DON'T SEE A RECESSION COMING UP. EISEN: NO MASSIVE RECESSION AS DONALD TRUMP SEES.
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He doesn't predict a technical recession for the economy, but rather an "earnings recession" where profits decline.
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"Markets starting to price in recession, but policymakers yet to price in recession," argued the BAML strategists.
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Talk about an imminent recession is intensifying, and recession risk probabilities are creeping up – although still low.
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When will a bear market, or even a stock market recession, turn into a global economic recession?
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Worse yet, recession may hit after the long post-recession expansion and shrink economies, but not debt.
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Recession fears knocked the Dow into a bear market on Wednesday, the first since the Great Recession.
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Global coronavirus recession A global recession is no longer a looming threat, Julia Horowitz writes, it's here.
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The next recession, if it substantially increases unemployment, may see this narrative stimulated further, worsening the recession.
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Worst recession since the 1930s For months, Brazil has been struggling with its worst recession since the 1930s.
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Warning sign: Spending growth slowed immediately after the recession but is now increasing at roughly pre-recession levels.
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"I think the word "recession" is a word that's inappropriate...We're very far from a recession," he said.
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Eventually we will get a recession but the question is if a recession is just around the corner.
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She noted that Cornerstone Marco's well-respected recession model points to a 34 percent probability of the recession.
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While there may be a risk of recession in the U.S., the former executive doesn't foresee a recession.
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" She continued: "What we are facing right now is something akin to a recession — a coral reef recession.
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Recession fears rise Economists are warning that the coronavirus could spark an imminent economic slowdown or even recession.
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We believed that recession fears were overblown, given the solid green output of the ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard.
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While recession in 2020 has become less likely, recession early in the next decade remains a serious threat.
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It has endured a severe recession, far longer and far deeper than the US recession of 2008-09.
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The result was a recession, worsened by the US mainland financial crisis and recession in 2007 and 2008.
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I don't expect we're going to experience a deep recession, but it could very well become a recession.
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If there is no recession until June 2019, he said, this will become the longest period without a recession.
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There are growing worries about a global recession or a U.S. recession, but individual states are also at risk.
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The United States could be looking at an "earnings recession that could flow through to an economic recession," Hodge said.
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Coming out of the Great Recession, industry leaders insisted they were taking steps to remain profitable at recession sales levels.
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Every Republican president since Teddy Roosevelt has presided over a recession…the United States has survived 47 recession in all.
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Raising rates quickly to prepare for the next recession would only create that recession, so that's not an answer either.
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In retrospect, it now seems that the 1929 and 2008 stock crashes were predictions of recession, not causes of recession.
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States that were more deeply affected by the Great Recession saw bigger increases in anxiety during and after the recession.
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And the mere fear of recession is just as likely to push the economy into a recession as anything else.
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Although yield-curve inversions have preceded every recession in the modern era, they do not necessarily portend an imminent recession.
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A recession is the top worry for CEOs in 2000 Economists aren't predicting a global or US recession in 210.
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What I did know is that the preconditions for recession were coming into place and that recession risks were rising.
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"What we all need to remind folks of, that we're modeling in the future prospects of a recession — a recession that's more modest than 2007, but a little bit more intense than the 2001 recession," Newsom told reporters.
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Other major institutions are predicting a global recession as well but are not yet calling a recession in the U.S. If the growth manages to stay positive in the first quarter, the U.S. could avoid the recession label.
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Producing too little can tip the economy into a recession — or make an existing recession worse than it would otherwise be.
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Following the Great Recession in 2008, wages dipped almost three percentage points before finally recovering to pre-recession levels in 2015.
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And if there isn't a coronavirus recession this year, there's sure to be a recession at some point in the future.
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It's a good enough number to be able to say we're not going into recession, but let's not go into recession.
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It's one of Wall Street's favored predictors of a recession, and these have preceded every recession over the last 210 years.
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"Coronavirus will cause a recession deeper and more severe than the Great Recession," Noah Smith, a Bloomberg Opinion economics writer, predicted.
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"Coronavirus will cause a recession deeper and more severe than the Great Recession," Noah Smith, a Bloomberg Opinion economics writer, predicted.
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"I think people buying Ulta here seem to believe it's recession-proof, but I'd say it's recession-resistant," the host said.
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It's the largest two-month drop in recession jitters since May 22007, the next-to-last month of the Great Recession.
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The number of long-term unemployed, while fewer now than at the height of the recession, remain above pre-recession levels.
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A recession in Germany could easily drag down France and Italy — the latter is already likely in a recession of its own.
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One of the biggest risks to the stock market is the fear of a recession, much more so than a recession itself.
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Similarly, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's recession probability indicator estimated a 33% chance of a U.S. recession by June 2020.
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The 2009 film is so informed by the recession — it's almost more about the recession than it is about being an escort.
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But it tends to signal recession at zero... So at 118 basis points, it's softer, but not soft enough to signal recession.
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The recession in America also caused a global recession, as liquidity dried up, debts got called in, and entire nations went bankrupt.
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"We have to remember that not every cyclical slowdown leads to a recession, and not every recession implies another crisis," Regling said.
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" The firm said the company has a "recession-resilient model" and that it doesn't see any recession-type impacts "on the horizon.
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Healthcare professionals — like nurses, physical therapists, and personal care aides — all saw job increases during the Great Recession and the 2001 Recession.
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But declines in business investment and manufacturing recession driven in part by Trump's trade war have spurred fears of a looming recession.
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That's the kind of thing that normally happens amidst large-scale job losses or a recession, but we're not in a recession.
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"If consumers decide that a recession might be coming so they stop spending, then a recession will be coming," Dr. Stevenson said.
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During the country's last recession — the Great Recession, the worst downturn since the Great Depression — about 8 million Americans lost their jobs.
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SmartAsset ranked and indexed each city out of 100, with 100 being the most recession resistant and one the least recession resistant.
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Analysts said a global recession was a near certainty, and S&P Global said the U.S. was likely already in a recession.
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That doesn't mean a recession is imminent, however: The Great Recession started nearly two years after the December 2005 yield-curve inversion.
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OPIOID ABUSE SPIKES AFTER RECESSION: A new study highlighted the troubling link between the Great Recession and drug addiction: http://on.wsj.com/6900QJNuvB.
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They were growing at 2.6 percent a year before the 2001 recession, and at 2.39 percent a year before the 1990 recession.
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They were growing at 22.0 percent a year before the 2001 recession, and at 2.39 percent a year before the 1990 recession.
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But 10 years following the recession, the generation who raised us is less eager to understand how that recession still impacts us.
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Still, as people worry that a recession is around the corner simply because there hasn't been a recession in a while, that could weigh on consumer and business confidence — and the fear of a recession could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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The Great Recession: The housing bubble was certainly a culprit of the 2008-2009 recession, but many blame the Federal Reserve as well.
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The risk of recession within two years is "extremely high," while there's about a 50% chance of recession within a year, he said.
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"If you just are in the recession camp, I think you look towards a traditional recession-proof stock like Coca-Cola, " he said.
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In fact, the federal funds rate peaked shortly before almost every recession since 1960 (the limited exception was the recession starting in 1980).
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The question is not whether the next recession will be bigger than the Great Recession, it is simply where the bubble is now.
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During a recession, stocks are on saleIt's a cynical way to look at things, but when you hit a recession, stocks are cheaper.
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The 2008 recession was bad everywhere, but countries in the core of Europe — like Germany, France, and Austria — weathered the recession relatively well.
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When the next recession comes – and there is always a next recession – the conventional response, cutting interest rates, will almost surely be inadequate.
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In the months before that 2001 recession began, only 16 percent of economists expected that a recession would start within the next year.
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Despite modest improvements from the depths of the Great Recession, American small businesses are still operating in a purgatory between recession and recovery.
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That survey of over 100 global managers found that 38% expect a recession next year, the highest net recession risk since August, 2009.
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A flattening, or worse, inverted yield curve has preceded every recession since 1962; however, not every inverted yield curve has led to a recession.
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If the economy weakens, the need for more affordable housing will only grow, making these startups not only recession-proof but even recession-strong.
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"We don't see a recession," Lagarde said when asked whether U.S. President Donald Trump's threatened tariff actions could tip the global economy into recession.
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It was less severe in other recessions, rising as high as 7.7% after the 1990–91 recession, and over 6% after the 2001 recession.
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A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of on-year economic contraction, while a technical recession would be two quarters of quarterly contraction.
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Many of these reforms were instituted during Australia's last recession in the early 1990s ("the recession we had to have", in Mr Keating's words).
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Recession A slumping oil price early in the year stoked fears of a recession, with the high-yield market pricing in an economic slowdown.
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Q. Is the Fed, after battling the Great Recession with massive bond purchases and rates as low as nearly zero, ready for another recession?
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Eight months into the so-called "Great Recession" in 20083, many economists were still debating whether the economy was in fact in a recession.
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The difference: The 1982 recession was followed by a robust recovery, whereas the recession of 2008-9 has been followed by a meager one.
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Economic growth has averaged just 2.2 percent per year since the recession ended, half the rate that followed the recession of the early 1980s.
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After the Great Recession, businesses lobbied, often successfully, to limit state taxes to increase state reserves for unemployment insurance, which the recession had depleted.
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Advertising spending generally declines during a recession, and analysts have been anticipating that the next recession could also speed up the cord-cutting trend.
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Considering that the last recession almost toppled multiple European countries, how will the United States handle a worse recession with much higher debt loads?
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Trade policy uncertainty remains elevated, U.S. manufacturing already appears in recession, and many estimates of recession probabilities have risen from low to moderate levels.
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In mid-March, Wall Street analysts were fretting about an imminent profits recession, and some economists worried an economic recession might follow in its wake.
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A growth recession would be nothing like 2008, when America entered a so-called technical recession: at least two consecutive quarters of a shrinking economy.
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Being able to give people that flexibility if a recession comes or when a recession comes is actually going to be a very needed product.
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While Brazil's economy has gradually recovered after a 2015-16 recession, Argentina fell back into recession last year as inflation surged and its currency cratered.
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And the United States hasn't suffered an economic recession -- typically defined as two straight quarters of negative GDP growth -- since the Great Recession in 5003.
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"What we had in '15 and '16 was a non-economic earnings recession or a mid-cycle earnings recession as we call it," explained Clissold.
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For comparison, the pre-recession total wealth was $67 trillion in 2007 before sliding to $2023 trillion at the depths of the recession in 2009.
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"If a recession arrives in May 2020, stocks may plunge in December 2019 with the standard lead-time to the onset of recession," Bannister writes.
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It's a scary situation that underscores the extent to which this recession is not the same as the 19823 Great Recession — it might be worse.
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It's a scary situation that underscores the extent to which this recession is not the same as the 2008 Great Recession — it might be worse.
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One of the things that happened in the 2008 recession that was almost miraculous from a global perspective is that China didn't have a recession.
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This time is different: Insofar as the world is headed for recession, it's a recession where government actions are the problem rather than the solution.
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Another term for a shrinking economy would be an economy in recession, and there is no reason to believe that a recession is currently underway.
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It could put us in a technical recession, but the real concern is does that recession cause the U.S. consumer to pare back on spending?
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It could put us in a technical recession but the real concern is does that recession cause the U.S. consumer to pare back on spending?
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Panelists put the odds of an outright recession this year at just 7%, with a 24% seeing a recession starting by the middle of 2020.
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Eisman told CNBC he doesn't see looming economic issues beyond the global industrial recession, which he says is not the same thing as a recession.
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"Our recession models now show a higher probability of a recession over the next 12 months than at any time during this expansion," Fels said.
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While such problems likely weren't a significant source of the unemployment during the recession, there is evidence the recession itself accelerated this building economic dysfunction.
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"While the Fed perceives the coronavirus as presenting a risk of recession, the market instead is increasingly perceiving recession as a base case," they wrote.
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While experts may disagree on whether a recession is inevitable or not, there are steps you can take ahead of time to recession-proof your life.
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Looking at data back to 1916, the researchers said that the index was a reliable recession indicator since it rose leading up to every prior recession.
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That recession would be called the "Trump recession" because it would have been mainly caused by the trade policies of President Donald Trump's administration, he noted.
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That could mean 2 of the world's 10 largest economies in a recession, with Canada joining Italy, which fell into recession at the end of 2018.
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Schiff says the U.S. economy is currently in the midst of a recession that could eventually be even more devastating than the Great Recession of 2008.
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Asked if there could be a recession in 2020, Kashkari said he believes the recession odds are elevated, based on the signals from the yield curve.
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While only 10 percent expect a recession in 2019, 42 percent say a recession will likely happen in 2020 and 25 percent expect one by 2021.
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Big banks' profits are just about back to where they were before the recession—a recession that they, it should be remembered, in large part caused.
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"A prolonged period of tariffs on Mexican imports would likely push Mexico into recession and could also threaten a recession in the United States," LMC said.
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Whereas the US had been in recession for nearly a year in November 22008, the 47.43 election came long after the recession ended in March 247.4.
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More broadly, S&P Global forecasts a global recession, with 2020 growth at just 1.0% to 1.5% — equivalent to recession for most of the developing world.
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It's also possible that the analysts predicting a recession next year — there are always analysts predicting a recession next year — will turn out to be right.
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More than 25 in 22008 expect a recession, and more than 25.3 in 2355 say it will be as bad or worse than the Great Recession.
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Recession fears peaked in late summer as the bond market sent a strong signal that a recession was on its way in the next 12 months.
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And the difference today, coming out of the recession, going into the recession, is that the poor have been stuck in poverty for a long time.
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After all, while the economy is slowing, we're not in a recession, and it's by no means clear that a recession is even on the horizon.
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This means that the unemployment rate goes up before the onset of recession but does not start coming back down until after the recession is over.
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This trend started with the recession, but we haven't seen a return to pre-recession levels of Mexican immigrant inflows since growth started back up again.
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So too, wage growth has lagged while those hardest hit in the recession have struggled to find gainful employment at wages equal to their pre-recession levels.
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There are no indications that California is entering a recession, but the LAO report said even a "mild recession might result in a $20 billion budget problem."
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One of their most poignant observations: Many young people's career development is stunted during a recession, and they can experience the effects years after the recession ends.
|
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For the United States, a global growth recession will probably mean sluggish growth, rather than millions of lost jobs like the last recession 10 years ago did.
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"Corporate debt is not going to cause the next recession, it's where the pain will be in the next recession," explained the Neuberger Berman Group portfolio manager.
|
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Economic growth in Europe has slowed considerably in recent months, with Italy falling into recession and Germany narrowly escaping a recession at the end of last year.
|
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Lee played down the concern about the possibility of a global recession, saying market internals like transport and small-cap stocks are not pointing to a recession.
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One fairly reliable recession indicator, the spread between the 2-year and 10-year bonds has weakened just about to its lowest level since the last recession.
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"The fact of the matter is the market is suggesting there is not a recession that's imminent, that the market was poised for recession for too long."
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Even though most analysts don't see major "imbalances" — or bubbles — in the real economy that would internally bring on a recession, every recession is a little different.
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Here is the baseline scenario that could push the nation into a recession in the next couple of years: This is the most likely road to recession.
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The average time from a completely flat, or inverted, curve to a recession is 12 months … in this case, that would suggest a recession by next June.
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"I think a large, timely well-thought fiscal stimulus package to avoid recession or to mitigate the severity of the recession that is now likely," he said.
|
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It makes sense that a regular administration might want to downplay concerns about a recession, as panicking about a recession can sometimes be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
|
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The industry went into a recession in April 2006, more than a year before the rest of the economy was clobbered by the Great Recession of 2008.
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RECESSION FEARS A deep inversion in the U.S. Treasury yield curve rattled investors about a possible global recession in the face of a U.S.-China trade war.
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Very weak inflation is a sign of a weak economy, and after the Great Recession, the great fear was that the economy would slip back into recession.
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"A recession in Singapore appears inevitable, and we have revised our full year GDP growth forecast for 593 to -0.5% to reflect the recession scenario," Seah wrote.
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The deep financial shock of the Great Recession differentiates it from the nasty Reagan-era recession of 1981-'82, which was followed by a famously robust recovery.
|
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"If we are headed for an imminent recession, it will likely be the most widely anticipated and best predicted recession ever," Paulsen tells Axios in an email.
|
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The stimulus would have lasted longer in the recovery from the last recession and would have automatically kicked back in if and when the next recession comes.
|
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Gundlach, who oversees more than $130 billion in assets under management, said the yield curve and the New York Fed recession probability showed a rising chance of recession.
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The firm created a "recession dashboard" in which the firm tracked the state of seven main economic indicators at the start of each recession dating back to 1973.
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Half of European companies stated that a recession is imminent within five years, while just 30% believe no recession will occur in their country in the foreseeable future.
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WE GOT THROUGH THE SCARE BACK IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY WHERE IT WAS FEARS THAT CHINA WOULD CAUSE A RECESSION IN THE U.S. OR A RECESSION IN CHINA.
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Many predicted a coming recession, with several banks and economic research houses arguing we'd see the first recession in the UK since the end of the financial crisis.
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But I'm confident that Tesla will remain slightly profitable even if there is a significant recession, and then be all the stronger for it when the recession ends.
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But the October '203 crash led to no recession, the Fed reversed course to ease policy, and stocks recovered through 1988 - until a brief recession approached in 1990.
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A yield curve recession model by National Australia Bank is pointing to a 231-266.72 percent probability of a U.S. recession occurring over the next 10-18 months.
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A: Whether we go into negative yields, and whether the Fed has built in enough cushion for the next recession, depends on the severity of the next recession.
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A full-blown recession could do even more damage; profits from parks tumbled at many big firms, including Disney, during the depths of the global recession in 2009.
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The economy officially went into a recession in 2008, declining by 0.3 percent and then crashed into the Great Recession in 2009, contracting by a whopping 2.4 percent.
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"The manufacturing recession, globally and particularly in the United States, is one of the primary reasons that people fear a recession," he told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Wednesday.
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Yes, but: Talk of a recession remains well below levels seen during and after the financial crisis, with executives mentioning the word "recession" 762 times in January 2009.
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The risk of an earnings recession is much greater than that of an economic recession, according to David Bianco, the Americas chief investment officer and strategist at DWS.
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" Maher finished his show of support for a recession by declaring, "Yes, a recession would be very worth getting rid of Donald Trump and these kinds of policies.
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Roughly 40% of those losses took place before the Great Recession — suggesting that structural failures in those communities had already started, but were accelerated by the national recession.
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It's easy to weather a recession if you are able to keep your job, and there are ways to ensure your job security before a recession even hits.
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The stock market, Mr. Paulsen said, often moves in advance of a recession — and a declining market can help cause a recession — making investment timing extremely difficult now.
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Of the three down years following a 20%+ gain, two involved a recession (1981 and 1990) and the other (1962) was a rare non-recession mini-bear-market.
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While states generally move in concert with the country, not every state started and ended its last recession in line with the broader U.S. recession of 423–2009.
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Recession fears have also calmed down somewhat, with 49% of businesses saying a recession is likely in the next year, down from 53% this same quarter in 2019.
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Gundlach, who oversees more than $130 billion in assets under management, said the yield curve and the New York Fed recession probability showed a rising probability of recession.
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So, if we – ANDREW ROSS SORKIN: But to the extent that everyone's talking about a recession -- if you go up 543%, are we talking about a recession coming down 10% or are you talking about a – LEON COOPERMAN: Recessions generally -- look every economic expansion creates the seeds for the next recession.
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Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth for Glenmede, noted in a report that there's a big difference between a real recession and a so-called earnings recession.
|
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Europe's corporate recession is expected to accelerate, according to the latest forecasts, as companies struggle with uncertainties from Brexit, the protracted U.S.-China trade spat and Germany's manufacturing recession.
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Timing any forthcoming recession, however, is tougher: Even when an inversion does predict a recession, the yield curve inversion is, on average, 22 months early, according to Credit Suisse.
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"There was an 8 pct recession in 2009 and a 3 percent recession in 2015, so it is a very different reaction to a major oil shock," he said.
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With Wall Street analysts anticipating a possible earnings recession in 5003, Goldman Sachs' economic research team estimates that this could, but is unlikely to, lead to an actual recession.
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Read MoreUS close to recession, world already in one: Pro There are two main contributing factors to this recession, Pal told CNBC: A resurgent U.S. dollar and China's slowdown.
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While they now say the chances of a technical recession are about one-in-four, that initial call was for a very shallow recession, making it easily revised away.
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Still, he said he wasn't very worried about inflationary pressures or recession — and models he's seen indicate that the probability of a recession is no more than 25 percent.
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More than 21.3 percent pegged the odds of a recession this year at less than 23.1 percent, and nearly 22.9 percent giving the same recession odds for next year.
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Investors have been grappling with the yield curve inversion that occurred Friday, which sparked new recession fears as the phenomenon has been a reliable recession indicator in the past.
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" "The empirical record of policymakers' ability to engineer a growth recession that nicely lands the economy at full employment without morphing into a full-blown recession is not comforting.
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If we knew with confidence that a recession would happen next year, businesses would not invest or hire, and people would not spend, and we'd have a recession now.
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"Right now, in the penultimate year before a recession, because we think a recession is coming in 2020, that typically is a very good year for equities," Minerd said.
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Every recession in the last 50 years has been predated by an inverted yield curve and, during this period, there have been two inversions that did not precede recession.
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On the surface, this suggests that the next recession is likely to be much milder than the 220006-2202 recession, which experienced a record large drop in consumer spending.
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The problem with this, Elaine, is that's exactly what we did 353 years ago and it put the economy into the deepest recession — the deepest recession since the 1930s.
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THE FED THEN HAS TO THEN PLAY CATCHUP AND WHAT HAPPENS THEN IS YOU TEND TO HAVE -- OFTEN HAVE A RECESSION OR AN INVERTED YIELD CURVE AND A RECESSION.
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Great Recession job losses peaked at 800,000 Still, a million jobs lost in a single month would be a stunning figure, exceeding even the depths of the Great Recession.
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Given that sentiment, Lemkin said it already feels like a recession-like environment for many software companies, similar to the Great Recession or even the dot-com bubble burst.
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He's famed for his 2005 call that a bubble had formed in the housing market and for saying a recession was coming before the Great Recession hit in 2008.
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The industry went into a recession in April 2006, more than a year before the rest of the economy was clobbered by the Great Recession, starting in January 0003.
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Thirty-eight percent of fund managers polled by Bank of America Merrill Lynch expect a recession over the next year, compared with 49% who see a recession as unlikely.
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" • "In other words: Housing is in recession already.
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Here's the case from those warning of a possible global recession: JP Morgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon told CNBC on Wednesday that "geopolitical noise " could lead to a recession.
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The recession in 1980 was a rare exception, when the Fed raised rather than lowered interest rates, even as the economy slipped into recession, in an effort to reduce inflation.
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The U.S. economy remains stuck in post-recession blues, with GDP growth well below where it should be this many years after the mid-2009 end of the Great Recession.
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If we are not careful, we could be right back into recession – a recession where we have limited tools left to fight; one, if not controlled, could spin into deflation.
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But box makers found a saving grace in e-commerce sales — and Amazon sales specifically, which were growing at mostly double digit rates in the recession and post-recession years.
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A bear market that causes a recession lasts 508 days on average, paced by the January 1973 bear market that lasted 1.7 years and led to the November 1973 recession.
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And unlike the rest of manufacturing which has failed to get back to pre-recession employment levels, there are now over 100,000 more food manufacturing jobs than before the recession.
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For example, both the 1974-5 recession and the 1981-2 recession were followed by rapid, "V-shaped" recoveries, because the Fed drastically loosened monetary policy and slashed interest rates.
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An inverted yield curve has been a reliable recession indicator, but it does not always precede an economic contraction and the length of time before a recession occurs has varied.
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Such a paradigm would be more credible, more likely to result in the Fed's satisfying its dual mandate, reduce risks of recession, and increase the economy's resilience when recession comes.
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Today, its tax revenues are more than double their pre-recession high, fueled by the fracking industry, which took off just as the recession hit the rest of the country.
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Recession jitters PIMCO estimates that the odds of a US recession over the next 12 months have climbed to about 30%, the highest level during the nine-year economic expansion.
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A recession rolls on The plant closures, snarled supply chains and weaker consumer confidence that accompany the coronavirus pandemic will push the auto industry even deeper into recession this year.
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"A recession in Singapore appears inevitable, and we have revised our full year GDP growth forecast for 2020 to -0.5% to reflect the recession scenario," said DBS economist Irvin Seah.
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The New York Federal Reserve puts the chance of a recession at 39% in the next 20193 months, the highest level since the Great Recession that ended in mid-2009.
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The New York Federal Reserve puts the chance of a recession at 39% in the next 12 months, the highest level since the Great Recession that ended in mid-2009.
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Far fewer economists believe a recession will come this year, and a growing number believe a recession will take place in 2021 rather than next year, according to the survey.
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"Europe is on the brink of recession, and auto tariffs would almost certainly push it into recession," said Oliver Pursche, chief market strategist at Bruderman Asset Management in New York.
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Although few expect a repeat of the Great Recession, even a mild recession will cause bankruptcies, foreclosures and auto loan defaults that will test the resilience of bank balance sheets.
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A: While we originally anticipated that a recession could arrive as early as the first half of next year, the recent Fed pivot may push the recession out to 2021.
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Before the last two recessions, inversion peaked at 59 basis points in March 250 (recession started in December 22007) and 208 basis points in December 22000 (recession began in March 201).
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Go deeper: 3 warning signs U.S. economy could be close to recession Fed report says Great Recession made millennials poorer than older generations Slowing economy could increase pressure on Big Tech
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"We need help because in the coming months, there could be food scarcity even in this recession," he said, referring to Nigeria's first recession in 25 years as oil prices fall.
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Meanwhile, under S&P's recession simulation scenario, New York's 2017 revenue would fall by $2.1 billion, or a 3.1 percent decline from the budget, during the first year of a recession.
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"The next bear market is going to be when we have the next recession, and right now it's hard to see what is suddenly going to create a recession," said Yardeni.
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And, while only 10 percent of panelists foresee a recession occurring this year, nearly half of the respondents expect the economy to enter a recession by the end of next year.
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"Trump accused the media of trying to cause a recession, saying, "The fake news, of which many of you are members, is trying to convince the public to have a recession.
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The economy is in its ninth year of recovery from the Great Recession; it is time to realize that we are likely closer to the next recession than the last one.
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Here are the highlights of what their recession model is showing:The yield curve, which shows the relationships between long- and short-term Treasury yields, continues to send an ominous recession signal.
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Morgan Stanley expects that the coronavirus will trigger a global recession that's worse than the 2001 downturn, but not as bad as the Great Recession that followed the 2008 financial crisis.
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"Two years ago I was predicting a recession in September of 2017, and in October I said we were going to have a recession at the end of 2018," he said.
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Democrats feel a recession coming on while Republicans predict a booming economy Democrats feel a recession coming on while Republicans predict a booming economy Politics has completely devoured the American economy.
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Major banks have forecasted that the United States has already fallen into a recession, and that unemployment rates could surpass those seen at the height of the Great Recession in 2009.
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The firm warned that airline stocks are "becoming a call on global recession," saying the market is now pricing in a recession-like impact to airlines' loss of traffic for 23.
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LONDON (Reuters) - Europe's corporate recession is expected to accelerate, according to the latest forecasts, as companies struggle with uncertainties from Brexit, the protracted U.S.-China trade spat and Germany's manufacturing recession.
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The 1953 recession followed a decline in government spending after the Korean War, and the 2001 recession was driven by a decline in business spending after the dot-com bubble popped.
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Go deeper ... Will the yield curve lead to recession?
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Wages are finally rising — 10 years after the recession.
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" The next recession, Solomon said, will be "very different.
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The Fed conducts its own market research into recession probability and prior to the January 2019 FOMC meeting, the New York Fed asked market participants to rate the chance that the economy was already in a recession and what percent chance they attach to the U.S. economy being in an recession in six months.
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Finland suffered a long recession after the financial crisis as its export problems were exacerbated by the decline of Nokia's former phone business, high labour costs and a recession in neighbouring Russia.
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Unemployment is at 4.9 percent, down from 10 percent during the recession, the Council of Economic Advisers reported, while average nominal hourly wages grew 2.7 percent, a high since the recession began.
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If confirmed, it will be the first contraction since a deep 213-21.1 recession from which the economy has failed to recover — putting the country half way toward a double-dip recession.
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Following the rate reductions in late 22019, the economy narrowly averted recession and continued expanding through the remainder of 22020-21996, through the dotcom bubble, until it entered recession in April 22006.
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Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees a 25 percent chance of a recession, but says the market is pricing in a 50 percent chance of a recession in the next 12 months.
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"The primary concern with gingival [gum] recession is, a loss of support on the front of a tooth," she explained, adding that unchecked, recession can, in extreme cases, lead to tooth loss.
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And however acute his diagnosis of the 2008 recession, he never fully explained how he would hold Wall Street more accountable for the practices that sank so many homeowners during the recession.
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"While U.S. foreclosure activity is still above its pre-recession levels, many of the states hit hardest by the housing crisis have now dropped below pre-recession foreclosure activity levels," he said.
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"With debt high and many of the structural problems that caused the great recession still in existence, a global recession could be more difficult to resolve than its predecessors," the Cebr said.
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As the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities writes: Most states cut school funding after the recession hit, and it took years for states to restore their funding to pre-recession levels.
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People are worried about the idea of a recession but not about the economyInternet searches largely bear out the idea that the recession fears are mostly narrative-driven, rather than data-driven.
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Every recession since 220 has been preceded by an inverted yield curve, though the curve also inverted in 203 and 220 without a recession following in the next 22008 to 209 months.
|
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The decline in oil, China's economic slowdown, a possible manufacturing recession, and the decline in corporate earnings have all been cited as reasons to worry about the possibility of a larger recession.
|
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Goldman Sachs' economists declared the U.S. economy all but recession-proof at the dawning of 2020, but now it appears a coronavirus-induced recession may have begun just a few months later.
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A recent SmartAsset report looked at the most recession-resistant cities in the US.Texas seems well equipped to handle a recession — 8 cities made the top 25, more than any other state.
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S&P Global Ratings says there is now a 30% chance the U.S. economy enters a recession in the next 12 months — scaling back the 35% recession risk it forecast in August.
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The chart shows that since the bottom of the recession in the fourth quarter of 2009, metropolitan areas have fully bounced back and are now significantly above their pre-recession employment levels.
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Recession worries have ebbed from earlier in the year, when the Treasury yield curve was inverted and flashing what has been a reliable 12-month recession indicator for the past 50 years.
|
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Earlier this year, investors were spooked by fear of a U.S. recession when the U.S. yield curve inverted, which has been historically one of the most reliable signs of a U.S. recession.
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I'm not saying the next recession will be nearly as bad as the Great Recession, but it doesn't have to be in order for credit card delinquencies to become a significant problem.
|
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That recession, dubbed the Great Recession, ended in mid-2009, making it the longest U.S. recession since the end of World War II. Heller said he still hoped for two interest rate hikes in 2016, adding that a potential July increase was "still on the table," depending on how data for the current month cames in.
|
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At that point the threat of a recession seemed distant unless some sort of outside event intervened to throw the economy off course - something like the collapse of the dot-com stock market bubble ahead of the brief 2001 recession, or the implosion of the U.S. housing and credit markets ahead of the more serious 2007-2009 Great Recession.
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Recession risks are the highest since the Great Recession of 2008/09 and are already higher than before the recessions of 1991 and 2001, according to the New York Fed's yield-curve model.
|
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Based on a handful of stock and bond market indicators — typically prescient barometers of future recession — we estimate that the odds of a recession by this time next year are better than even.
|
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Seventy percent expect a global recession to start in the second half of 2020 or later, while 86% do not believe the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve signals an impending recession.
|
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Why it matters: One of the biggest risks to the stock market and the economy itself is the fear of a recession, much more so than a recession itself, as we've written before.
|
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The government is unlikely to accept that a small contraction in the economy is a recession, but private economists will argue that it marks a technical recession, after the economy shrunk in Q1.
|
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The news comes at a time when the U.S. railroad industry is grappling with a freight recession due to falling commodity prices and North America's manufacturers appear at risk of an industrial recession.
|
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Recession fears have been reignited recently, as weak economic data roll on and the bond market is flashing the biggest recession signals since before the financial crisis, driving investors away from risky bets.
|
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After that three-month inversion, you typically see within one to two years on average the economy turn and go into a recession but it doesn't necessarily mean that a recession is imminent.
|
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Recession fears also break down along party lines, with 38 percent of Republicans saying a recession is likely, versus 79 percent of Democrats and 59 percent of survey respondents that identify as independents.
|
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When the next recession comes, the Federal Reserve will then have more room to respond before running up against the interest rate "zero lower bound," as it did in during the Great Recession.
|
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Amazon is 'recession-proof' and 'going to do awesome'Several analysts believe that AWS is not only safe from the effects of a recession but that it could even benefit from the current crisis.
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So if China joins the rich world in a recession, even if the recession is not that bad from our perspective it would be a real sort of tragedy from a global view.
|
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But as I — a young woman seemingly the right age to be affected by this recession — read through the essay, I found myself wondering what exactly this "recession" had to do with me.
|
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The biggest threat to Disney's media networks would be a recession, spurred by a coronavirus pandemicAnalysts don't seem to expect coronavirus to impact Disney's media networks much, unless the outbreak spurs a recession.
|
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Goldman Sachs predicted that the global recession would be worse than the ones in 22020 and 2001, but not as bad as the 2008-2009 financial crisis or the deep 1981-1982 recession.
|
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"When people say the U.S. economy can't continue to grow when the world is in recession, what's happening in Germany is indicative of the fact that the world is in recession," Ezrati said.
|
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It also added that other traditional recession indicators, such as 'low near-term forward spreads', 'stretched excess bond premiums' and 'elevated financial cycle' measures "do not yield a clear consensus on recession risk".
|
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"It really is highly unlikely" that the committee will declare a recession before the 2020 election, said Robert Gordon, a Northwestern University economist who has been on the recession-dating committee since 1978.
|
|
The new high also represents "the first time since the recession ended in 83 that the typical household earned more than it did in 2007, when the recession began," the Associated Press reports.
|
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"They're not recession-proof yet; they haven't gone through a recession, we don't know who's going to survive or who's not," said Elysia Tse, LaSalle IM Asia Pacific head of research and strategy.
|
|
If leaders truly believe a recession is becoming more likely, then training their people now is vital — especially if it&aposs likely training budgets will be marginalized or cut when the recession begins.
|
|
No one is predicting a recession in Italy just yet.
|
|
New Hampshire survived the Great Recession better than many states.
|
|
Fears about a potential recession in the U.S. have subsided.
|
|
By no means is anything like a recession factored in.
|
|
The commentary from CEOs indicates lower growth but no recession.
|
|
Economic data is "not slowing towards a recession," he said.
|
|
Therefore, a recession sometime in 2017 is more than overdue.
|
|
Analysts warn that tariffs could spark a recession in Mexico.
|
|
"I don't expect a recession any time soon," Yardeni added.
|
|
When that happens, a recession often comes several months later.
|
|
"If there's a recession," Cannon said, "all bets are off."
|
|
Inversion has been a reliable recession indicator in the past.
|
|
We're -- I'm not predicting and we're not predicting a recession.
|
|
The U.S. we don't think is going to enter recession.
|
|
During the recession, declining public funds caused tuition to skyrocket.
|
|
Just 13 percent see a recession in the year ahead.
|
|
Many predict the economy will lapse into recession in 2020.
|
|
But of course as you know, you don't predict recession.
|
|
But the country has suffered its deepest recession in decades.
|
|
"In December, stocks were priced for a recession," Davi said.
|
|
The good news: the 235 earnings recession is now over.
|
|
Even in places inured to recession the worst is over.
|
|
As for the downside, another great recession can be avoided.
|
|
First of all, let's go back to the great recession.
|
|
A recession will come, and there will be political blood.
|
|
Mexico, which depends heavily on exports, would probably enter recession.
|
|
States cut funding for higher education during the Great Recession.
|
|
It then declined slightly during and following the Great Recession.
|
|
"His domestic policies would lead to recession," Romney said somberly.
|
|
Not all Americans have fully rebounded from the Great Recession.
|
|
Furthermore, other structural macroeconomic factors can potentially signal a recession.
|
|
RICHARD CLARIDA: I'm certainly not there for a potential recession.
|
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How the Great Recession teed off tech's long boom 7.
|
|
FED'S CLARIDA SAYS DONT BELIEVE WERE SEEING ELEVATED RECESSION RISK
|
|
The economy has been in recession almost continuously since 2006.
|
|
Go deeper: Why you should stop worrying about a recession
|
|
Since the recession, our appetite for buying stuff has grown.
|
|
Brazil is in its worst economic recession since the 1930s.
|
|
Weak U.S. manufacturing data added to worries of a recession.
|
|
And when the recession comes, what will it be like?
|
|
R: I think it's on the verge of a recession.
|
|
WATCH: Paul Krugman on the next recession, wages and unions
|
|
Consumers don't foresee a recession, at least not anytime soon.
|
|
At that point a recession might be on the cards.
|
|
Years of reform, austerity and recession have taken their toll.
|
|
The numbers this week beat out even the 2009 recession.
|
|
Is it enough to push the U.S. economy into recession?
|
|
"We don't think the economy is sliding into a recession."
|
|
Dozens are nearing completion during Venezuela's most severe recession ever.
|
|
US job growth has held up amid increasing recession fears.
|
|
Things look grim in Nigeria, which is mired in recession.
|
|
This is seen as a portent of a U.S. recession.
|
|
The latest is the New York Fed's recession probability index.
|
|
The second concept I'm thinking about today is democratic recession.
|
|
That is the Fed telling you a recession is coming.
|
|
The market collapsed and the economy fell into a recession.
|
|
Nigeria is mired in its first recession in 25 years.
|
|
The Great Recession has officially been over for a decade.
|
|
Indeed, that cycle was followed by a very shallow recession.
|
|
Additional reports could ease investor fears of an earnings recession.
|
|
MEXICO'S PRESIDENT LOPEZ OBRADOR SAYS TALK ABOUT RECESSION CREATES UNCERTAINTY
|
|
Nathan Deal wanted to slash the program during the recession.
|
|
History suggests a painful recession might be around the corner.
|
|
During a recession, the loss was almost six times that.
|
|
America's recovery from the Great Recession has proved particularly puzzling.
|
|
The recession that followed the financial crisis accelerated the trend.
|
|
The biggest reasons for the "sex recession" are probably straightforward.
|
|
Nonetheless, a 40% drop in luminosity indicates a serious recession.
|
|
In May, it reported its worst results since the recession.
|
|
"A recession looks unavoidable," he said of Europe's largest economy.
|
|
The U.S. looks like it's still pretty far from recession.
|
|
Maybe all the recession talk is, well, a bit wrong.
|
|
What's happening: Millennials came of age during the Great Recession.
|
|
TEN years ago this month, America entered the "Great Recession".
|
|
In the mid '90s, we did not have a recession.
|
|
"People's expectations are that we are due" for a recession.
|
|
She is also very unpopular thanks to a deepening recession.
|
|
It shows clear delineations between periods of recession and growth.
|
|
Buhari's popularity at home has fallen amid a deep recession.
|
|
Sounds like the end of the earnings recession to me!
|
|
There was not a recession, but economic growth did slow.
|
|
Close to half were increasingly concerned about an upcoming recession.
|
|
Saudis are buying more than they did during the recession.
|
|
Before the great recession, such generous terms were quite common.
|
|
Turkey's economy fell into recession at the end of 218.
|
|
That's the second fastest reading since the Great Recession ended.
|
|
Will the U.S. import recession from a falling Chinese yuan?
|
|
That leaves a recession, the classic killer of bull markets.
|
|
The recession didn't help, and property prices haven't helped either.
|
|
That alone is enough to keep a recession at bay.
|
|
We've had three of them already since the last recession.
|
|
We had a global recession and a global financial crisis.
|
|
S. trade war would ultimately tip the world into recession.
|
|
The recession hit millennials hardest, in employment and wage growth.
|
|
LAGARDE: WE DON'T SEE A RECESSION FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY.
|
|
Could it actually help tip the country toward a recession?
|
|
"I don't see a recession around the corner," Herrera said.
|
|
Doll believes oil is the main driver of recession fears.
|
|
Number one, if the stock market smells an oncoming recession.
|
|
It is expected to enter recession in the third quarter.
|
|
During the Great Recession, it soared to 15.1% in 2010.
|
|
That created fears that the economy was falling into recession.
|
|
A recession came and went, and now another one looms.
|
|
Another quarter of economic contraction would be a technical recession.
|
|
It tends to do better in recession than in recovery.
|
|
Recession will halt that, or even begin to reverse it.
|
|
Heading towards 2020, however, the bank warned of a recession.
|
|
Historically, an inverted yield curve has signalled an impending recession.
|
|
So we're not having as a base case a recession.
|
|
Today is the start of the next great California recession.
|
|
An inverted yield curve is generally considered a recession predictor.
|
|
The housing market is not flashing recession signals, he said.
|
|
The country is in its fifth straight year of recession.
|
|
To many, an inverted yield curve signals an oncoming recession.
|
|
And then anytime you have a recession, it affects matrimony.
|
|
We don't know whether we're going to have another recession.
|
|
In sum, it is very likely to cause a recession.
|
|
He says there's no earnings or economic recession in sight.
|
|
Some Scottish economists reckon that the country is nearing recession.
|
|
Perhaps the global economy might be heading back into recession.
|
|
But slower growth is not the same as a recession.
|
|
The country is suffering its worst recession since the 1930s.
|
|
Why, then, should an economy ever find itself in recession?
|
|
The second outcome of Welfare Reform followed the Great Recession.
|
|
An inversion is widely seen as indicating an economic recession.
|
|
The recession that followed the crisis temporarily reduced these imbalances.
|
|
PDVSA's declining oil revenues have thrown Venezuela into severe recession.
|
|
After recession struck, participation tumbled, falling to 258% by 22008.
|
|
Any more austerity will drive the island deeper into recession.
|
|
In a way, the Great Recession never ended for them.
|
|
In mid September, Lehman Brothers failed, triggering a global recession.
|
|
Brazil is struggling with its worst recession since the 1930s.
|
|
In 2010 Britain was coming out of a deep recession.
|
|
No sign of a recession, but wage growth is flatlining.
|
|
China is clearly experiencing a slowdown, and possibly a recession.
|
|
LIESMAN: DO YOU THINK THIS IS A SIGNAL OF RECESSION?
|
|
The attacks helped to push Nigeria into recession in 2016.
|
|
Puerto Rico's economic recession began in the spring of 2006.
|
|
There are differing expectations about the chances of a recession.
|
|
Some economists are already warning of a potential 2020 recession.
|
|
Reserves are double what they were before the Great Recession.
|
|
The renewed recession risks drove a slump in global stocks.
|
|
S. trade war could tip the global economy into recession.
|
|
S. trade conflict and fears of an imminent global recession.
|
|
History shows that should the curve invert, recession will follow.
|
|
The city was in recession and reeling from the Sept.
|
|
Economic Scene What did we learn from the Great Recession?
|
|
Since the recession, their rate of entrepreneurship has plummeted further.
|
|
BUT YEAH, I THINK THERE'S NO SIGN OF RECESSION NOW.
|
|
Paul metropolitan area is up 10 percent since the recession.
|
|
In fact, Brown says younger investors should welcome a recession.
|
|
The Great Recession is to blame for the price increase.
|
|
"This could pull forward the onset of the next recession."
|
|
Markets sold off sharply after the bond market's recession warning.
|
|
Many economists define a recession as two consecutive quarterly contractions.
|
|
But her prediction also calls for a relatively mild recession.
|
|
The territory's budget remains in strong surplus despite the recession.
|
|
Families across the country were devastated by the Great Recession.
|
|
Some were jolted by the recession into seeking nontraditional work.
|
|
The lag between inversion and recession tends to be lengthy.
|
|
That doesn't mean a recession is necessarily around the corner.
|
|
A recession can devastate your finances if you're not prepared.
|
|
The move comes as fears of a potential recession linger.
|
|
Brazil's economy is mired in its worst recession in decades.
|
|
It also experienced a prolonged recession from 1982 until 1984.
|
|
The central bank governor has said a recession is likely.
|
|
But this is only weakening demand in the severe recession.
|
|
And fixing an economy in recession became the predominant concern.
|
|
Some also believe market concerns about recession risks are overdone.
|
|
"We don't see signs of an impending recession," Suzuki said.
|
|
The spread is a closely watched metric for recession signals.
|
|
Then the great recession hit, and Alvarez lost her job.
|
|
Experience shows that is when the threat of recession mounts.
|
|
Sometimes the fear of a recession can actually trigger one.
|
|
But that still means a 70% chance of no recession.
|
|
After all, these "experts" failed to forecast the 2008 recession.
|
|
After a severe recession ended in 2013, Spain's economy rebounded.
|
|
Growth will slow, but we may not have a recession.
|
|
Historically, when that happens, an economic recession has usually followed.
|
|
Vehicle prices have been rising significantly since the Great Recession.
|
|
Would signals of a potential recession cool the Fed's tightening?
|
|
"Rate cuts are not always associated with recession," Clarida added.
|
|
The island's economy has been in recession for a decade.
|
|
It also reflects a substantial turnaround since the Great Recession.
|
|
And when that happens, recession follows sooner or later. Always.
|
|
In times of recession, it is time for invention. 5.
|
|
Also, the curve's inversion often ends before a recession begins.
|
|
I had just graduated college and it was the recession.
|
|
" On inflation and the rising deficit: "No recession in sight.
|
|
In rare cases, gum recession can result in tooth loss.
|
|
In the second scenario, Britain falls into recession next year.
|
|
Ray Dalio sees 'serious problems' stemming from the next recession.
|
|
But during a recession, the country was none too eager.
|
|
Also, the market isn't exactly pricing in an imminent recession.
|
|
He's not expecting a recession over the next few years.
|
|
Obviously, a recession did not follow either of these signals.
|
|
Since the Great Recession, economic growth has been generally stagnant.
|
|
The Peach State was hit hard during the Great Recession.
|
|
What makes this economic downturn different from the last recession?
|
|
In such a recession, Fed rate cuts are fairly useless.
|
|
Big banks were at the heart of the Great Recession.
|
|
Cutting checks is an imperfect tool to fight a recession.
|
|
We've failed pretty miserably at that since the Great Recession.
|
|
That recession, like many, was essentially a crisis of expectations.
|
|
LONDON (Reuters Breakingviews) - Covid-19 is causing a global recession.
|
|
"We could go into a deep recession again," he said.
|
|
Oh, and it looks like we're headed into a recession.
|
|
He said it would trigger an economic recession if passed.
|
|
The mood turned decisively after the Great Recession of 2008.
|
|
Despite Achuthan's concerns, he doesn't see a recession unfolding yet.
|
|
So I don't see a recession in the near future.
|
|
Are you prepared for a market downturn or economic recession?
|
|
Trump has increasingly worried about fears of a looming recession.
|
|
But we really don't see recession in the current baseline.
|
|
When a recession hits, current profit will become more important.
|
|
Economic Scene What will President Trump's first recession look like?
|
|
So a recession would erode support among his base supporters.
|
|
That changed after the Great Recession, as investors moved in.
|
|
Further strained by the global recession, people wanted radical change.
|
|
Uber is said to be nervous about a looming recession.
|
|
But they remember the damage wrought by the Great Recession.
|
|
"I think this is worse than the recession," says Stettner.
|
|
It's extremely unlikely for a recession to come from abroad.
|
|
He added, though, that he did not expect a recession.
|
|
State workforces are smaller than they were before the recession.
|
|
In 21970, the Australian economy slid into a prolonged recession.
|
|
The financial firm also thinks the recession risk is overblown.
|
|
We are in what I would call a geopolitical recession.
|
|
But the rate has not recovered since the Great Recession.
|
|
States and localities faced unique challenges in the Great Recession.
|
|
"We're about to experience the worst recession since the depression."
|
|
That recession was the country's deepest since the Great Depression.
|
|
"That can prolong or deepen the recession," Mr. Borri said.
|
|
"We're going to have a very significant recession," he said.
|
|
But we really don't see recession in the current baseline.
|
|
Investors are certainly trading as if a recession is coming.
|
|
Recession fears climbed this month for a variety of reasons.
|
|
A recession would also transform the Democratic White House race.
|
|
"We're very far from a recession," Trump said on Tuesday.
|
|
It was the first cut since the 2008 Great Recession.
|
|
Investors fear it because it has historically preceded a recession.
|
|
Here are some major recession indicators that are flashing red.
|
|
An inversion of the yield curve has preceded every recession.
|
|
This comes after a few indicators showing a possible recession.
|
|
At this point, an economic recession appears all but inevitable.
|
|
And by nearly every account, a national recession is overdue.
|
|
But, you say, we didn't see the Great Recession coming.
|
|
It now expects a recession with output contracting by 7.1%.
|
|
But the scars of the Great Recession are still here.
|
|
But the scars of the recession have never fully healed.
|
|
So those are my current thoughts on the next recession.
|
|
The actions, plus the recession, meant schools took a hit.
|
|
Canaccord Genuity's Tony Dwyer warns that recession odds are growing.
|
|
According to Zandi, the probability of a recession is jumping.
|
|
The bond market's "yield curve" is close to forecasting recession.
|
|
And since the Great Recession the figure has even fallen.
|
|
By July of 1990, though, a recession had set in.
|
|
Many economists believe the city's economy is slipping into recession.
|
|
I keep going back to the Great Recession of 2008.
|
|
A fifth — Germany — is teetering on the brink of recession.
|
|
And when the bubble popped, we got the Great Recession.
|
|
But growth there came to a halt during the recession.
|
|
We could avoid a recession [and] just have slower growth.
|
|
The inverted yield curve is a bond market recession warning.
|
|
No one can predict exactly when a recession will occur.
|
|
But the period since the recession has been unusually tumultuous.
|
|
It is also a continued effect of the Great Recession.
|
|
SO, WHAT IF THERE'S A RECESSION ON TOP OF THAT?
|
|
The trucking industry has been in a recession in 2019.
|
|
Balch's family weathered the recession and, luckily, kept their house.
|
|
That compares with 59% who see a recession as unlikely.
|
|
People are kidding themselves if they think it's a recession.
|
|
The territory was already reeling from political discord and recession.
|
|
He noted the Mexican economy was not "yet" in recession.
|
|
A recession is generally defined as two straight quarterly contractions.
|
|
An inversion of the curve is a classic recession sign.
|
|
The economy's manufacturing sector, for example, has fallen into recession.
|
|
If not, the economy could be in recession next year.
|
|
This lesson was most recently illustrated during the Great Recession.
|
|
Within six months, the economy would again be in recession.
|
|
Brex seems unconcerned with the possibility of an impending recession.
|
|
But tech has fueled growth and helped stave off recession.
|
|
The lessons of the last recession were harsh but clear.
|
|
Australia has not had a recession for almost three decades.
|
|
I don't have to worry that much about a recession.
|
|
It also seems unlikely a recession is on the horizon.
|
|
But when the recession hit, his real estate business suffered.
|
|
And the recession is where most companies get wiped out.
|
|
A top Wall Street economist is lowering his recession forecast.
|
|
Recession is a collective loss of faith in the economy.
|
|
Five coincided with recession, six did not, according to Perkins.
|
|
During the recession, declining public funds caused tuition to spike.
|
|
And it may be time to prepare for a recession.
|
|
Most economists predicted a British recession after the Brexit vote.
|
|
It has been in recession for the past 10 years.
|
|
Invariably the Fed pushes too hard and a recession ensues.
|
|
But when the 2008 recession hit, he lost his house.
|
|
As long as this continues, recession will remain at bay.
|
|
The country continues to endure its worst recession in history.
|
|
We don't know if the Fed can prevent a recession.
|
|
Also, UAW did nada for job security in last recession.
|
|
It exited its recession in the second half of 2016.
|
|
There is already a retail recession and investments have declined.
|
|
BRIAN SULLIVAN: --Saudi Arabia's come out of a recent recession.
|
|
No recession is within view based on the leading indicators.
|
|
Today we don't have a recession, let alone a war.
|
|
SARA EISEN: Could it take us into a global recession?
|
|
" Or: "Responsibility for a recession is directly on the Fed.
|
|
Go deeper: Economists see sustained low growth, but no recession
|
|
A financial adviser can help you prepare for a recession.
|
|
"There isn't a single major economy that is in recession."
|
|
All that has raised the risk of a 2020 recession.
|
|
Then there was the stock market of the Great Recession.
|
|
The last time that happened was during the great recession.
|
|
Puerto Rico was (and remains) mired in a deep recession.
|
|
So let's say it's all true and there's a recession.
|
|
" • "He added, though, that he did not expect a recession.
|
|
Have you already forgotten the financial crisis and Great Recession?
|
|
My parents bought a foreclosed farmhouse during the 2008 recession.
|
|
During a recession, there are a lot of idle resources.
|
|
The Great Recession made it clear that they had not.
|
|
Ford and Tesla made it barely through the last recession.
|
|
And so it went, into the teeth of the recession.
|
|
America was leaving the Great Recession and moving into recovery.
|
|
The damage from the Great Recession hasn't been completely healed.
|
|
Sector is edging towards a second recession in a year.
|
|
" Emanuel said for the market to see significant gains, investors will have to embrace the idea that global economic weakness will not drag down the U.S. "For their to be material upside, those cyclical stocks need to lead...People have to come to grips with the concept that there isn't going to be a recession, whether the Fed engineers no recession or a trade deal engineers no recession...or just the fact you're in the year before an election means no recession.
|
|
But if congressional staffers get to work on drafting legislation now, then when the next recession strikes it might be possible to introduce better automatic stabilisers—just in time for the recession after that.
|
|
"A recession is not in our baseline, but we note the dangers from the recession bias leading to self-fulfilling prophecies," said Lydia Boussour, a senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.
|
|
The unexpectedly strong result helps put to rest fears of the US economy tipping into recession — a recession that would have been bad for Hillary Clinton's chances of capturing the White House in November.
|
|
No CFO surveyed from the Asia-Pacific region thinks the U.S. will experience a recession either, and only a few CFOs from the Europe, Middle East and Africa region think a recession will occur.
|
|
The recession tracker is more pessimistic than the one the Federal Reserve Bank of New York maintains, which shows the odds of the economy suffering a recession within one year at almost 85033 percent.
|
|
And while a recession always hurts corporate earnings growth — which has historically been the biggest driver of stock prices — Huynh says this would be a mild recession after a period of already-slow growth.
|
|
On Tuesday, Trump told reporters the US economy was strong and recession was not on the horizon, but he has privately expressed worries about the threat of a recession, according to The Washington Post.
|
|
For most of the past decade, despite a parade of bad recession calls by pundits, assuming that US consumers and businesses wouldn't suddenly tighten their belts and create a recession was a no-brainer.
|
|
The gap in interest rates between different types of bonds, which narrowed in late March in what could be construed as a growing concern about recession, has since become larger as recession concerns eased.
|
|
"Even in case of some global slowdown or recession, there can be a slowdown here, but it does not have to be a recession and definitely I would not speak of crisis," Mora said.
|
|
In general, the group continues to believe that a recession is unlikely in the next two years, with the majority putting the probability of recession this year or next at 25 percent or less.
|
|
While low unemployment, rising interest rates, and buoyant stock markets suggest recovery from the 2628 Great Recession, that recovery has been slow and lacks the vibrant economic growth usually seen in post-recession turnarounds.
|
|
Yet, I still think when we put it all together, when we look at all of our indicators for recession, it seems that there is an increasing probability of recession before the 2020 election.
|
|
"Given that the economy is not in recession, and it's unlikely to enter into recession, at some point the Fed is going to stop cutting rates," said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial.
|
|
Goldman added that that since 1994 in periods of a market sell-off, cuts to the Fed's funds rate occurred much more often during a U.S. recession or in an immediate recovery from a recession.
|
|
Then, the Fed could promise to return the price level to its pre-recession trend, making up for the shortfall induced by the recession, at which point it would revert to targeting an inflation rate.
|
|
Or number three, insurance — that while things may be fine here, there is a bunch of stuff we are concerned about overseas: the ongoing China trade thing, Brexit, the Draghi transition, German recession, Japanese recession.
|
|
S. recession risk rises as U.S.-China trade tensions heat up Corporate profits and U.S. economy chug along, defying recession fears 3/TIME TO TLTRO It's time for action again at the European Central Bank.
|
|
"Early millennials grew up in an optimistic time and were then hit by the recession, whereas late millennials had their worldview made more realistic by experiencing the recession while during their formative years," explained Twenge.
|
|
RECESSION The coalition, which came to power last June, is trying to revive an economy that fell into a shallow recession at the end of 2018, leaving a negative carry-over effect on this year.
|
|
While an inversion of the U.S. yield curve led many to predict an imminent recession, the survey found 70 percent of investors expect a global recession to start only in the second half of 2020.
|
|
Powell said on NBC that while the downturn caused by the coronavirus "may well" be a recession, the downturn does not reflect fundamental weaknesses in the U.S. economy akin to the 85033-08 Great Recession.
|
|
Recession worries emerged last month as the 10-year Treasury yield inverted, and briefly went lower than the 2-year yield for the first time since before the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent Great Recession.
|
|
The presidency of George W. Bush was an economic disaster for most Americans because it started with a small recession, had a fairly weak recovery in its midsection, and then ended with a giant recession.
|
|
Rosenberg is doubtful, saying that after past downturns like the 2001-02 recession and the Great Recession, it took two or three years for the US economy to get back its former pace of growth.
|
|
Trump adviser says plan would break potential recession: Donald Trump's senior economic adviser claims the Republican presidential nominee's platform would help stave off a recession he says experts are predicting in the next few years.
|
|
The number of new businesses created in the United States every year continues to lag behind pre-recession levels, new government data shows, slowing job growth even years after the depth of the Great Recession.
|
|
"While investors debate whether we're entering a recession, we believe the backdrop is better described as a 'Semi-Recession,'" Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse, said in a note to clients Wednesday.
|
|
"Markets already appear to be pricing in a full-blown recession in the U.K. and rising recession risk in the rest of Europe," said David Donabedian, chief investment officer of Atlantic Trust Private Wealth Management.
|
|
The recession had just began, this was the end of 2008.
|
|
It was the poster sandwich for the recession: It was cheap.
|
|
The austerians were wrong about the Great Recession and Great Depression.
|
|
Her mismanagement of the economy helped cause Brazil's worst-ever recession.
|
|
Before the recession took root, Brazil was moving towards these ends.
|
|
But the researchers added they are not sold on a recession.
|
|
"You tend to see that in a recession," Mr. Edwards said.
|
|
The Fed may not just be facing the risk of recession.
|
|
Mexico narrowly avoided a recession during the first half of 2019.
|
|
"I'm not expecting a recession at all," Javid told the BBC.
|
|
An inverted yield curve is typically followed by an economic recession.
|
|
Just look at how much has changed since the 215 recession.
|
|
The Fed is not going to tighten and create a recession.
|
|
There's a decent chance we will avoid a recession this year.
|
|
But when it comes to a possible recession, the consensus ends.
|
|
Eventually that may very well cause a slowdown or a recession.
|
|
S&P 500 earnings growth dipped ahead of the last recession.
|
|
Obama took office after the Great Recession began in December 2007.
|
|
Could the next recession see Facebook drop from Big Five status?
|
|
One key recession indicator is flashing a warning signal to investors.
|
|
"Our industry is still climbing out of the recession," said Walker.
|
|
Because usually the budget deficit expands in response to a recession.
|
|
It's a way of stimulating to get us out of recession.
|
|
A recession may not materialize until after Trump's re-election bid.
|
|
Years of recession and austerity have turned them into fierce critics.
|
|
Almost all inversions in the last half century have preceded recession.
|
|
A recession is likely to come within the next two years.
|
|
There could be a recession, or two, between now and 2028.
|
|
However, he remains on recession watch due to Federal Reserve policy.
|
|
But if the U.S. heads into recession, something has to give.
|
|
However, he was uncertain whether it would cause an outright recession.
|
|
Here's what 13 experts had to say about the next recession.
|
|
Still, there is the risk that people trigger an earlier recession.
|
|
This isn't the first time El-Erian has dismissed recession fears.
|
|
Will they avoid tipping their trade war in to global recession?
|
|
Brazil is going through its worst recession since the Great Depression.
|
|
The phenomenon has historically been a signal of a coming recession.
|
|
So we would get a deflationary shock and recession either way.
|
|
Since 2008 Italy has been in recession as often as not.
|
|
We've continued our investment in Brazil, in spite of the recession.
|
|
And then the recession hit in 2008, jeopardizing his entire agenda.
|
|
But today, not surprisingly, the business sector is slipping into recession.
|
|
Go deeper: The market rally that could signal a coming recession
|
|
The recent recession saw longer-distance migration among young people fall.
|
|
However, during the recession, declining public funds caused tuition to skyrocket.
|
|
The 54 economists surveyed don't yet expect a recession, Anneken notes.
|
|
But the economy has not been in recession for 27 years.
|
|
Not exactly Trump has consistently swatted away concerns about a recession.
|
|
The federal government's recession-fighting stimulus package mitigated this only slightly.
|
|
But at the same time we don't have an economic recession.
|
|
A yield curve inversion is seen as a reliable recession signal.
|
|
The job boost is welcome for the recession-battered trucking industry.
|
|
The classic example is the Volcker recession of the early 1980s.
|
|
A lot has to go right to end this earnings recession.
|
|
In your view, did the Great Recession affect your career trajectory?
|
|
The recession has brought down the revenues to pay for them.
|
|
America is not in a recession, as it was in 2003.
|
|
Yield curve inverted in March 1973; recession began 297 days later.
|
|
Yield curve inverted in August 1978; recession began 560 days later.
|
|
Yield curve inverted in September 1980; recession began 350 days later.
|
|
Yield curve inverted in February 1989; recession began 564 days later.
|
|
Yield curve inverted in August 2000; recession began 272 days later.
|
|
Yield curve inverted in December 2005; recession began 765 days later.
|
|
While the Great Recession was brutal, it was also very freeing.
|
|
It might not take much to bring on the next recession.
|
|
Lots of people are suddenly predicting that a recession is coming.
|
|
The Fed also tightened policy prematurely in 22007, creating another recession.
|
|
Meanwhile Germany, Europe's economic powerhouse, appears to be tipping into recession.
|
|
That inversion, while brief, has historically signaled a recession the horizon.
|
|
Recession is commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
|
|
The U.S. bond market has also flashed a recession signal recently.
|
|
Some suggested that builders are still gun-shy from the recession.
|
|
Sometimes the economy can grow all the way through a recession.
|
|
This, according to Mr Rowe, is what a recession looks like.
|
|
The out-migration started before the recession that began in 2007.
|
|
Its key market, Germany, is on the brink of a recession.
|
|
Even a mild recession would force him to spend it quickly.
|
|
Brazil has yet to recover from its worst recession on record.
|
|
An inversion has been a reliable recession indicator in the past.
|
|
But for any more than that you will need a recession.
|
|
The H&M was as empty as Gucci in a recession.
|
|
If the likelihood of a recession increases, it's terrible for beef.
|
|
That may explain why larger cities reported the gloomiest recession predictions.
|
|
Go deeper ... Exclusive: Cities see signs of recession on the horizon
|
|
A recession would cause them to drop 20%, Smoke tells Axios.
|
|
The big picture: Argentina is in the grip of a recession.
|
|
These moves could help cushion the economy from another damaging recession.
|
|
Goldman Sachs and other economists have forecast a recession by 2017.
|
|
Such a yield curve inversion that can signal a looming recession.
|
|
The US manufacturing data immediately sparked chatter about rising recession risks.
|
|
"When a recession hits, it will slow down more," Whelan said.
|
|
During the Great Recession, declining public funds caused tuition to skyrocket.
|
|
FABER: WE HAVEN'T HAD A RECESSION IN A VERY LONG TIME.
|
|
Hindsight and statistics suggest that we should have a recession soon.
|
|
It was in fact founded in 1970 after the 1969 recession.
|
|
It's like they unlearned all the lessons of the Great Recession.
|
|
The next recession my prediction is will be shallow and short.
|
|
MEXICAN FINANCE MINISTER HERRERA SAYS DOES NOT SEE AN IMPENDING RECESSION
|
|
The yield curve inverted last week, which normally presages a recession.
|
|
For the first time since the recession, home size is shrinking.
|
|
Then oil prices crashed and the Saudi economy tipped into recession.
|
|
Want to help business get out of recession and into recovery?
|
|
A recession is helping to keep a lid on consumer prices.
|
|
And if recession looms Germany has plenty of room for stimulus.
|
|
The tumult of bankruptcies, bailouts and recession kept blurring her vision.
|
|
No one is predicting a return to pre-recession boom times.
|
|
In a recession, profits can plunge even faster than share prices.
|
|
Uruguay kept growing after Brazil and Argentina entered recession in 2014.
|
|
Her opponents also blamed her for the worst recession in decades.
|
|
But in 2014 the economy entered its worst recession on record.
|
|
For one, we're still seeing the affects of the Great Recession.
|
|
Remember, we are all 10 years older since the Great Recession.
|
|
More than 8 million jobs were lost during the last recession.
|
|
Now, clearly before the recession, it was a little bit frothy.
|
|
During a recession, the federal government can run a budget deficit.
|
|
The severe economic recession that began around 2013 hammered local producers.
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There, investors still perceive uncertainty, and even a possible recession lurking.
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A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of declining growth.
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Its economy has been in recession for three years and counting.
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Venezuela's economy shrank 18% last year, its third year of recession.
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Maybe we get more of a deceleration, but an actual recession?
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But it's not the reason you're gonna have a recession tomorrow.
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Alas, as a result of the Great Recession, it already has.
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Q. Are you worried the state is heading into a recession?
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Such a board definitely did not see the Great Recession happening.
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And that raises a serious question: What if there's a recession?
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But the government held off from declaring Japan in a recession.
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"I lived through the pain of the last recession," said Schornack.
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Meanwhile, the country's worst recession since the 1930s continues to deepen.
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Getting through the Great Recession, especially the auto bailout, was important.
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In nominal terms, spending surpassed the pre-recession peak in 2013.
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But despite this, signs of impending recession are now piling up.
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Pessimism among investors reflects not just the indicators pointing towards recession.
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There are useful ways to increase current spending in a recession.
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Bankruptcy would hurt an economy that slid into recession in March.
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Deep in recession, the country suffers the world's highest inflation rate.
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This is the generation that came of age during the recession.
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They're angry about the Great Recession, which so knocked everybody flat.
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Fed officials in recent days have been talking down recession risks.
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The U.S. economy continued to grow, eventually entering recession in 1990.
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It's not going to put the economy into a recession tomorrow.
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Kelton also talks about what might bring on the next recession.
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Read More Cramer: Will 2016 mark the return of a recession?
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The subsequent recession led the island down a spiral of debt.
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Africa's biggest economy is facing its first recession in 25 years.
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And I think central banks behaved very well post the recession.
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"The earnings profit recession is real," he told CNBC on Monday.
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It is a trend that became deeply rooted during the recession.
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So, that was difficult and discouraging and then the recession happened.
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A yield curve inversion is seen as a leading recession indicator.
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It is seen by some investors as a harbinger of recession.
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It has inverted as early as four years before a recession.
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Winters joined former Fed Chair Janet Yellen in downplaying recession fears.
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"There's no way there's going to be a recession," he added.
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Four states have not yet fully recovered from the Great Recession.
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Zukle: The recession hit in 24000, and sales went way down.
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But with the labor market showing resilience, a recession is unlikely.
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My view is this is a growth scare, not a recession.
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"Either life is solid or there is a recession," Lawson said.
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But it may be undergoing it's own kind of a recession.
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Certainly, the stock market does not appear to fear a recession.
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These trading levels are more commonly associated with an economic recession.
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Fields has been credited with leading the company through the recession.
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A recession typically causes a prolonged and pronounced drop in confidence.
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For many in the markets, that is a signal of recession.
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Yield curve inversions are seen generally as precursors of a recession.
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"The recession is over but it's not been forgotten," says Warner.
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"It's an invitation for another Great Recession, or worse," said Rep.
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That seems to help it from sinking into recession by mistake.
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China's slowdown and recession in places like Brazil weighed on trade.
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Rate cuts normally come in times of recession and high unemployment.
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Historically, when employment growth slows in this fashion, recession risk rises.
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That could send Europe into recession—a boon for political extremists.
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Last week, stocks saw their worst week since the Great Recession.
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After the recession in 2010, the company reorganized under bankruptcy laws.
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Before the recession, his father built fancy mountain retirement homes here.
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Germany, Italy and the UK are likely headed for a recession.
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Do you expect to normalize interest rates before the next recession?
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A recession has strangled the Puerto Rican economy for 221 years.
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Many economists say any escalation could lead to a global recession.
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In the next few years, as the Great Recession hit, Gessen
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Optimism surges in a bubble, then tanks when a recession hits.
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Prices in Denver have been on fire since the Great Recession.
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Something similar took place in the years before the Great Recession.
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" He then jaw-droppingly added, "So please, bring on the recession.
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The state's tax revenues tanked during the recession of 2008-09.
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But years of recession and austerity left deep scars in society.
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The NDP are wacky and Bob Rae caused a global recession!
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The nation's first recession in two decades is also squeezing profits.
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When does the long expansion end and the next recession come?
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Are you willing to go into a very severe, deep recession?
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Then the 113-91 economic recession badly eroded Mr. Bush's standing.
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People are kidding themselves if they think it is a recession.
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He traces this animosity to the 2008 financial crisis and recession.
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But Fink's concern is not around whether a recession is coming.
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A recession is marked by a specific set of economic circumstances.
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Some recession anxiety stems from people's assessment of their current finances.
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"We're in our eighth year from the Great Recession," he said.
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That inversion has been a reliable signal of an oncoming recession.
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Every Republican president since Teddy Roosevelt has presided over a recession.
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Russia's economy, which depends heavily on oil revenues, is in recession.
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It only narrowly avoided a recession at the end of 2018.
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There's nothing inevitable about a recession unless the Fed over-tightens.
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Then, like other automakers, Mitsubishi was hit hard by the recession.
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No one thinks a recession is imminent, but the Fed looms.
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Recoveries do not last forever, and when recession comes, inflation declines.
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A recession is unlikely as long as consumption growth remains robust.
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Just one more thing we can thank the Great Recession for.
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The sharp divergence is also a warning sign of a recession.
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Gibson said the industry hasn't fully recovered from the Great Recession.
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But that would also mean a true recession had kicked in.
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When a recession comes, the consumer is the last to know.
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Trump has been pushing back over talk of an impending recession.
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A recession is not inevitable, but seems more likely every day.
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U.S. stock markets plummeted today as recession fears continue to grow.
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Before the recession, he said, he sometimes got 6 percent raises.
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"Brexit and Argentina were not the Great Recession," Morningstar's Johnston said.
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Some have debated whether trucking was in a recession at all.
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Several factories closed because of the relatively mild recession of 1991.
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"We have never experienced a recession without such corroborations," Golub wrote.
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Hardly anyone is immune to the effects of an economic recession.
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To Rosenberg, that spending is the last thing preventing a recession.
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Predicting the onset of a recession is often a thankless task.
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But to fight the next recession, that policy mix must change.
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Still, Piegza predicts the economy will avoid a recession in 2019.
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South Africa entered recession for the first time in a decade.
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They are also influenced by how they experienced the Great Recession.
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That's a condition that's often been a precursor to a recession.
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Some economic indicators are warning that a recession may be imminent.
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But consider the overall picture since the recession ended in 22007.
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In developing markets, Brazil is in recession and China is slowing.
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"It's hard to pencil in a recession anytime soon," said Quinlan.
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After the Recession, establishment economists began to echo Rodrik's early warnings.
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Wage growth has been a concern in the wake of recession.
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That reflects growing concern the world is heading back into recession.
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Nigeria exited recession in the second quarter but growth is fragile.
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In 2017, just over half (53%) thought a recession was coming.
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The economy, after several years of devastating recession, is virtually stagnant.
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The richest Americans were wealthier than they were before the recession.
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A recession is sure to hit; we just don't know when.
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But hey, no chance of a recession happening anytime soon, right?
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" He added that administration officials are "not worried about a recession.
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Even former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet YellenJanet Louise YellenWhat economic recession?
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Nationally, since the recession, there have been two distinct housing markets.
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It has also more than tripled since its Great Recession lows.
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"We do think the earnings recession is ending," Mr. Christopher said.
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Sure, a recession might hurt, but this was a great business.
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That is easier to gauge during boom times or a recession.
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Like many orchestras, the Utah Symphony struggled during the Great Recession.
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"The next recession is starting to come into view," he said.
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Retail sales in Brazil are starting to recover from the recession.
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She financially helped family members who lost jobs in the recession.
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"The economy is doing too well for (a recession)," Patterson said.
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The capital raised comes as recession and political uncertainty grip Brazil.
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Brazil is battling a prolonged economic recession and huge corruption scandal.
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The original plan to build condos was derailed by the recession.
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Expanded trade can also accelerate our recovery from the Great Recession.
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First, we are no longer in the middle of a recession.
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This was driven partly by the financial crisis and ensuing recession.
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Other states recovered from the recession more quickly than Ohio did.
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The recession and further military budget cuts also worsened the situation.
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The country is suffering from its first recession in 25 years.
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Hong Kong is heading for an "outright recession," according to Nomura.
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It shows that the recession in the Russian economy is over.
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That triggered a double-dip recession and a European debt crisis.
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What happens if there's a major recession, and even more anger?
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During the recession, both the unemployment and underemployment rates rose sharply.
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I told you this music was the height of recession pop!
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For some people, aesthetics alone are enough to fear gum recession.
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Other than low-level trauma, bacteria and inflammation cause gum recession.
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Headwinds from Argentina's recession-racked northern neighbor Brazil are not helping.
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Compare this with the period leading up to the 2008 recession.
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That is far fewer than in the aftermath of the recession.
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The culmination of multiple recession signals he sees flashing right now.
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They don't fall 20 percent unless you're living in a recession.
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Italy is Europe's biggest distressed debt market following a deep recession.
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